Monday, June 24, 2024

Lightest Volume Of The Year…


The market traded slightly higher and ended basically flat again today.  The SPY had only 91 million shares traded today, which made it the lightest day of the year.  I'm still expecting a small pullback to 1103-1105 spx area, before another move higher.  With this light volume any down days shouldn't last more then one or two days at the most.

As I said previously, I'm expecting the 1126 SPX/113.00 SPY to be hit before the end of the year.  Next year should bring some selling in the first few months.  After that, it's still undetermined.  We could simply rally back up and put in a lower high, and then fall hard over the next year or so... all the way down to 3,000-4,000 Dow.  I am expecting that to be the final target... when is the main question?

The other scenario is that we only fall the usual 10% down in January and Feburary, and then rally up one more time to the 61.8% Fib level (taken from the 2007 high to the March 2009 low).  Either scenario is possible.  We are currently at the 50% level, and could simply roll over next year and continue down all year... or only dip down 10%, and then rally up during the summer.

That would delay the ultimate low of 3,000-4,000 Dow until 2013-2014, instead of 2010-2011.  Either way, we are still in a Bear market... not a bull market.  But, that doesn't mean that I won't go long from time to time.  I'll take whatever the market gives me, and right now... that's about Nothing!


Author: Red

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