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Up As Expected…

By Red, on February 1st, 2010

Sorry for the late post today folks.  The market went up as expected, and should continue throughout the week.  Tomorrow should be a consolation day, before another move higher.  Again, I’m staying long my USO calls until Friday or the 38 level.

I don’t know how high the market will reach by Friday, but the 1120 area isn’t out of of the question.  Regardless of where it is, I’ll be going short on Friday, as it could start the larger wave 3 down on the following Monday.  Now keep in mind that Monday could go up a little and the down move wouldn’t come until Tuesday the 9th.  That’s my actual projected turn date… but, it might come early, and I don’t want to miss it.

I would rather ride out a little pain to the upside on Monday, then to see Monday crash and I’m not short yet.  Anyway, I’m tired, and haven’t had a chance to do anything today.  I got home really late and now I’m posting late.  So, I’ll end here.  Just stay patient, as the big one is coming soon!

Red

The Bulls Are Running Again...

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  1. Flat as expected…

Leo's Den
  • Captain_Koons

    Hi Red,
    It looks like we are on schedule as planned. Only concern I have is with the unemployment number coming out on Friday. Could bad numbers on Friday be the start of the move down? I may add to my short position on Thursday.

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      The way I'm looking to play it, is to add a 1/3 short position at 111.60 spy, another 1/3 at 112.30-112.50, and the finally 1/3 at 113.20.

      If we are lucky enough to reach 113.20 on the spy, I'll go 100% short into the weekend. Not sure if that will happen or not, but that's where I'd love to see it go.

      Now, as for the unemployment numbers, I believe the market is a little scared right now of any news or earnings coming out. So, I believe we will sell off before the numbers and then rally once they are released.

      The government will get out their erasers and make sure the numbers are better then expected, which will cause the small rally up.

      If I think like a retail trader, then I would be thinking that the numbers are going to be bad, and therefore I'd be shorting before the numbers. So you need to do the opposite… wait until the numbers are released and go short after the rally has peaked.

      On the other hand, if we rally into the numbers, then they really are bad and you should go short before Friday. But, I don't think that will happen. I think the market will pullback a little before the numbers, and then rally on them.

      Regardless of how it plays out… look for the key levels to be hit that I listed above.

      Red

  • sundancer390

    red
    the throwback to support scenario is playing out to a T.

    gap above trendline on SPY monday morning
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43226…

    fridays bear trap was confirmed on monday
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43247…

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Everything is working as planned. I'll probably get out of my USO calls tomorrow and sit in cash until I see where we are on Friday.

      • sundancer390

        Red,

        I'm getting more vibrations that this friday “they” are going to close the market near 1144 to set up what was warned of 30 days ago, which was the second monday of January and this coming monday will be the second monday in february and they closed the market @ 1144.98 before they gave us the warning, I got a picture of it with the candle printed
        http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43257…

        • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

          I'm mis-understanding you? Are you thinking that they are going to run it up to 1144? The picture shows 1047? I'm lost?

        • Crash Gordon

          very interesting and thanks for sharing but where do these vibrations come from and what form do they take?

          Also when you say closed to what exactly?

          [Forgive me I am still new to all this and finding it fascinating]

  • Crash Gordon

    Hi Red Your on the money so far !

    Im just a bit worried that the nice gentlemen on the PPT team keep coming to the rescue next week as well!

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Yeah, you never know with those guys.

  • Apple Al

    Red, if your interested………
    http://screencast.com/t/YmM2YWMxOTIt
    Only been working with this for about a month, you could say it's good at showing the obvious. It did start showing an increase in buying pressure about mid-week last week, also selling pressure line was diverging into Friday

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      Great chart Apple Al… Thanks for sharing. It's definitely showing the bullish move that we are now having. The key is to figure out when it's going to rollover.

      • Apple Al

        I know, I know. This is either a 2nd wave or a B wave, in either case it's probably going to try our patience.

  • Crash Gordon

    Hi Red Your on the money so far !

    Im just a bit worried that the nice gentlemen on the PPT team keep coming to the rescue next week as well!

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Everything is working as planned. I'll probably get out of my USO calls tomorrow and sit in cash until I see where we are on Friday.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Yeah, you never know with those guys.

  • Apple Al

    Red, if your interested………
    http://screencast.com/t/YmM2YWMxOTIt
    Only been working with this for about a month, you could say it's good at showing the obvious. It did start showing an increase in buying pressure about mid-week last week, also selling pressure line was diverging into Friday

  • sundancer390

    Red,

    I'm getting more vibrations that this friday “they” are going to close the market near 1144 to set up what was warned of 30 days ago, which was the second monday of January and this coming monday will be the second monday in february and they closed the market @ 1144.98 before they gave us the warning, I got a picture of it with the candle printed
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43257…

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    I'm mis-understanding you? Are you thinking that they are going to run it up to 1144? The picture shows 1047? I'm lost?

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Great chart Apple Al… Thanks for sharing. It's definitely showing the bullish move that we are now having. The key is to figure out when it's going to rollover.

  • Crash Gordon

    very interesting and thanks for sharing but where do these vibrations come from and what form do they take?

    Also when you say closed to what exactly?

    [Forgive me I am still new to all this and finding it fascinating]

  • Apple Al

    I know, I know. This is either a 2nd wave or a B wave, in either case it's probably going to try our patience.

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