bull-run

Look out bears, the bulls are back!  NOT!  I don’t believe that for one minute.  This is simply the larger wave 2 up that follows the wave 1.  We are still on track for larger wave 3 to start down next Monday or Tuesday.  I was wrong about today being a flat consolidation day, as the bulls just kept on charging.  That’s fine with me as I’m not short anything right now.  (Still in my USO long though).

I can’t really see tomorrow continuing to rally without a pause day, but it could.  A slight pullback, and then another move higher on Thursday or Friday is the logical thing to do… but who’s says the market is logical?  Regardless, I swing trade, so I’m just waiting for the short term indicators to start too rollover again.

I’m still thinking that they will surprise everyone on the job’s numbers Friday.  Of course I could be wrong, and they start to sell off after they are released, but my gut tells me that every trader already knows that the numbers are horrible.  With low expectations like that, it wouldn’t be too hard to beat them.  Plus, they have a habit of tricking the bears a lot too.  Never under estimate the government.  They will fool you every time.

So hang tight everyone… our time is close now!

Red

P.S. I’ll be buying straight puts on the SPY on Friday or Monday.  It depends on how high we go, as to which strike price I’m going to buy.  I’ll be looking to buy February puts, as the move down should fall into this coming expiration on the 19th.  Everyones’ risk tolerance is different (mine is quite high), but I’m looking for a strike price that is “out of the money” by about 2 points from the high.

So, for example… if we hit 112.00 on the spy by Friday, then I’ll be buying the 110.00 strike price.  If we are lucky enough to hit 114.00, then I’ll be buying the 112.00 strike price.  Remember, I’m looking for about a 100 point move down before option expiration.  That’s a 10 point move on the SPY.  That’s a HUGE move folks!  You could make 5 times your money in a 2 week period… or you could lose it all?  It all depends on what the market does, and I believe it’s going to crash.  What do you believe?