The market tanked yesterday, but it failed to hit the 692 FP and (and the 7063 ES FP)... and it failed to hit the short term upside FP at 749.70 on the SPY from last week. They never make it easy when it comes to the hitting of the FP's, as I've seen this pattern before where a fake print is put out weeks or months in advance, and when the market starts to get close to hitting it, it stops shy and reverses the other way for awhile. Then later comes back and hits the FP to fulfill it. What does that mean you ask? It tells me the short term low is in (an A wave) and we are going to rally into mid next week (the FOMC on the 17th) where we should easily hit the 749.70 upside FP on the SPY that I posted a chart of on X a couple of days ago. Below is that chart...
However, today... before the open, we have the CPI number coming out. Now it could be used to cause another drop in the market to retest the lows (and possibly flush hard to the 692 FP), but I think it's going to be used to squeeze the bears really hard. It's a wildcard, but it's possible that between the CPI starting the squeeze, and the IPO of SpaceX this Friday, we could see the 787.13 FP on the SPY hit into next week. Yeah, that's a crazy call, and I agree. But if you want to destroy the bears that's the move I'd do. More likely though is that we only go up to make a lower high, or slightly higher (to hit stops on bears that short the double top), like to 7700+ into next Wednesday.
I really don't have a lean here on whether or not we make a lower high, blow off high to 787.13, or slightly higher high... but I do have a strong lean that the next best shorting spot will be on the 17th, which just happens to be the FOMC day as well... but that's not my reason for predicting that day. It's more about the cycles and while the window is the 5th to 15th we've already did the first drop early by topping around the 2nd/3rd, so I'm targeting a late top for the next high. I wasn't really thinking about the market having two large drops, but it's now pretty clear that we'll see another one before the bearish window of time expires (it goes until mid-July). Here's a chart of the path I think is coming...
Now again, I don't know about how high the coming move up into the 17th will be, as it could be a new high for a wave 5 that I've been looking to play out for awhile now. Or it's a lower high, which would be a B wave in a wave 4 down. Then the C wave would follow afterwards and bottom most likely by the end of this month. Then some up's and down's for the first half of July before the really strong rally up starts, which could then reach 8000 or more in the months that follow. Bottom line here is that while this recent drop went deeper then I expected (meaning I missed shorting it) there's still another great opportunity to short next week.
Have an blessed day.
