The rally up went too high for the drop to 7000 to happen, so that's dead in the water now. The low for the entire two month correction from the June high finished at the July 31st bottom, and it completed my wave 4 on the chart I posted on X last Sunday night. However, the large wave 3, 4, and 5 on that chart are not accurate. That large wave 4 drop to 7000 isn't coming as basically we have started the large wave 5 up into mid-September for the blow off top. Below is that chart again...
The rally up from the July 31st low started the final large wave 5 up, and w have likely completed the medium wave 1 up already with the recent top at 7820.25 on the ES, and we should be starting an ABC pullback for the medium wave 2, which should last into the 10th-13th window. It might only be 200 points or so, as this bull is super strong.
The 12th has a solar eclipse on it, which is bearish, so that could be where the C wave happens for the wave 2 pullback... meaning that we might chop around the rest of this week and into next week to do some A down and B up before having a one day wonder drop for the C wave on or around the 12th to shake out some bulls, suck in some bears, and complete the wave 2 down.
After that we should start the medium wave 3 up, and I can't see where the 787.13 FP on the SPY is going to stop the bulls. That wave 3 could hit 8200, and then there's still a small pullback for the medium wave 4 and a final push up for the medium wave 5, to complete it all. We could see 8400 or even 8500, who knows for sure? There's another low date on the 21st this month, but it will probably be small as it's likely going to be inside the medium wave 3 up, like a small wave 2 or something.
I've very frustrated that the market never pulled back to the 7000 zone, and worst is that I missed the squeeze up. But the market never makes it predictable as then everyone would win and that's not how the market works. It works by getting everyone on one side of the boat and then sinking it to drown them all, and the bears drowned this week for sure. Just have to adapt and move on I guess. Anyway, for the short term there's probably not much down side the rest of this week. Just look for some chop to make an A down and B up, and "hopefully" we see a one day wonder C wave drop of a couple hundred points next week around the 12th where a long can be taken.
Have a great weekend.
