The Bulls Are Back…

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bull-holding-sign

At least the retail bulls were, but the big institutions didn't participate in today's rally.  For many months now, the volume on UP days is low, and the volume on Down days is heavy.  Why is that?  Simply put... the big institutions are selling big on the down days, and sitting on the sidelines on the up days.

They buy a little bit, just to get the market jump started, and then the retail trader jumps in and pushes it up the rest of the day.  That's exactly what happened today as the big boys gaped the market above the key overhead resistance, and then turned it over to the retail traders.

This really reduces the odds of nice correction now, as today's move rallied most indexes back inside key trendlines and support areas.  That doesn't mean the bear is dead, but he just got a bull horn jabbed into his side today.  It's a serious wound, and makes any more downside attacks limited.

I am surprise that the  bulls didn't go up to the double top level at about 1212 spx today.  They had the opportunity, as the volume was almost non-existent.  But, since tomorrow is Friday, I'd expect them to push it up some more and at least reach that double top.  The news released by the government tomorrow, will of course be manipulated to push up the market more.  Any news that they control will be made up, and not accurate.

The earnings report from various companies is tougher to manipulate, but the government encourages them to lie on them, so they will look positive for the economy.  So, since there isn't any major earnings report tomorrow, the only news left to report is various economic reports (GDP being the major one)... which again will be favorable.

It's looking more and more like we might be forming a sideways channel, as the bears can't seem to break the downside support levels, and the bulls can't go above the overhead resistance.  It really makes more sense to manipulate the market sideways, so the crooked banksters can unload their stock slowly to the retail trader.

The dollar is also looking bearish, and should continue to fall.  This will of course help push up the market, as they are still locked in sync with each other, and go in opposite directions.  Without the dollar pushing up, it's going to be hard to see the market sell off hard.

So, I guess it's time to put the old green up arrow back up, as the odds of a serious sell off on Friday is very low.

Red

green-up-arrow

1820 COMMENTS

  1. Yeah…I usually to like that Green arrow…but not anymore. It is all about manipulating. —Just heard from a friend that U.S. considers criminal charges for Goldman…anyone hear any thing?

  2. Carl’s morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1202 – 1215. A swing to 1270 is underway.

    1195.75–1206.25 actual yesterday (10.50 points)
    1208 high last night
    1202-1215 estimate for today (13 points)

    1204 currently, so estimate is -2 to +11 from here (very bullish)

    Carl has 2 units of /ES bought yesterday and held overnight

  3. Juliet Rose born April 28th. All is well – I'm being discharged today. Hope you guys are doing well and I'm sure you'll be hearing more from me next week!

      • Seems the downside caught Carl by surprise.

        He has been struggling lately. I suppose everybody has 🙂

        • He had about 5 pts proft in that trade, which is quite good under the circumstance. Usually he would get stopped out with gains. But like you said, it could be just an unusual situation.

  4. Gcocks83 just posted this on OBB…

    Quote…

    “I just saw an order for may 119 puts for 10,000 contracts at 1.57”

    End Quote…

    If that was an insider, then we could have a Black Swan event coming next week. Of course it could have been just a stupid retail trader, that will lose all his money. But it's something to wonder about?

    • Thanks Red. I don;t think the dowside id finished just yet. It might be flat on Monday but more downside is coming IMO.
      I might nibble on GS next week.

      • The only thing that concerns me about the end of today or Monday is the intraday fake print I got on the 10 minute chart. They usually play out within 1-3 days.

        This (double) fake print is for 120.83 spy, which means we could go there within a day or so? It could just be some late fills, but you never know for sure.

        Notice how yesterday's afterhours fake print of 119.29 was tagged today (actual low of 119.31… close enough). Here's today's double fake print…

        http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010

  5. It sure is nice to know that all I have too do for the market to sell off, is to put up that stupid green arrow. Worked twice now. I'm going to post more bullish forecasts (while I secretly buy puts of course).

    😉

        • We are pretty oversold today, so I'd expect a bounce on Monday… unless some really bad news comes out over the weekend. Anything is possible. If that happens, then we'll gap down on Monday. Hard too tell right now.

          • Barring bad news, both bullish (wave 3 of 5 up) and bearish (wave 2 retrace of wave 3 down) counts call for more upside, first. Oil has been up huge over the last few days, and JNK (junk bonds) have been heavily bought as the indexes have looked bearish. I personally think this is a bear trap, and we need to set the wave 5 new high before we go down. Either way, we go up first.

          • We might just trade in a rectangle range like November-December. Burns both put and call holders. I think commodities will give the game away, however. Copper is down and oil is up. Who wins?

          • Well, the 117.50 spy level is good support and it should bounce from that level for at least intraday, maybe a day or two.

            The next level is 115.00, and that is really good support. It's a place to go long for several days.

            Of course that doesn't mean anything until we breakdown from this triple bottom we just formed. I could see us bouncing a little on Monday, then selling down to one of those level's by Friday.

            Then rally into opx, as there are a lot of puts on the spy that they won't want to pay out on.

            Just guessing here as the wildcard is always some bad news story being released and causing a big dump day.

          • News is a huge wildcard. A bailout package for Greece could get finalized over the weekend, and I'm sure that would cause a big rally as dumb retail buys the news. It is after all, a Monday, and the 1st of the month (401K money will pile in).

            If you track foreign indicies, $$SSEC seems to have found a bottom (maybe!). If Shanghai is green by the time US markets open, it will definitely be a green day.

  6. Carl at day’s end:

    1202-1215 estimate for today (13 points)
    1182.75–1205.50 actual today (22.75 points)
    Never seen Carl miss the low by 20 points & the high by 10 points before.

    Trades:
    In /ES at 1197.25 & 1201.50 yesterday, sold both today at 1197.50 (loss of 3.75 points)

    Grade: D (worst range estimate ever and also lost some money)

    • I think Carl was right, just early. I think Monday will be a huge bull day.

      Take a look at the chart for JNK (junk bonds). Very close to a new 52-week high today. If risk appetite is still here, up we go.

      • I tend to agree. Carl was looking for a low today or Monday in the 1185-1190 area, and we got that today.

  7. TZA opened flat. TZA was up 8.8% at the high, and closed there.
    TNA opened flat. TNA was up 0.6% at the high, and closed down 8.7%.

    We are now in a Full Moon Trade as of 2 days ago (can’t believe I forgot to check), which tends to favor TNA.
    AmericanBulls had TNA with a BUY-IF, & TNA was down big today, so TNA remains a Wait.
    AmericanBulls had TZA with a SELL-IF, & TZA was up big today, so TZA remains a Hold. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.93, so this trade is now up 7.0%

    Volume for TZA today was average.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 18.8% with TZA up 8.8%. No divergence.

    TZA was up two days, and then down two, and now up today. Good for TZA.

    The low for TZA was from two days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.42, 2.2% higher.

    Yesterday, Ultimate Oscillator fell from 37 to 35 while TZA closed down 6.3%, no divergence technically, but the reading of 35 held up very well considering how far TZA fell. Seemed like a bit of a divergence. Today TZA was up 8.8% and the reading went from 35 to 46. Good for TZA.

    MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now is moving up a bit, and rose today. Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s very long white candle closed well above the upper Bollinger band, rather like 3 days ago. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 1st day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, perhaps.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long black candle closed at the mid Bollinger line (20 day moving average). The last time $RUT fell to touch the 20 day moving average, it bounced for days. MACD has rolled over (down). Bad for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): the black candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band(This happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days). This also happened 3 days ago and was followed by two up days. This close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA.

    The chart of $NYUPV:$NYDNV (NYSE up volume to NYSE down volume) showed a down spike, not as large as some others, but a spike none the less. Previous such down spikes were followed by a single down day and then $RUT upside. Bad for TZA, perhaps not so much tomorrow.

    TZA had a lower low, higher high and much much higher close – Good for TZA.

    Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
    $ 1,404 million flowing out of the market today on a down day 2 days ago.
    $ 1,276 million flowing into the market today on an up day yesterday.
    $ 108 million flowing into the market today on a down day.
    Bad for TZA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, it looks bad for TZA.

  8. I really don't know what all takes place in the gulf of Mexico that might get messed up or forever ruined by a coating of oil for who knows how long.

    I am now wondering if the market, which has been going up lately, will just fall until there seems to be a resolution to the oil leak and some calculation of the damages.

    I partly mean the damages from the oil. But the bigger damage might come from our collectively idiotic political leaders and the stunningly stupid election specialists that seem to go along with whatever seems dumbest.

    I lack the imagination to guess what new laws might be on the way, but I can see new taxes, new government agencies, more government oversight, more regulations, more restrictions. For starters.

  9. The Daily view from Americanbulls

    TNA had a BUY-IF signal for today,but was down today, and is a Wait for tomorrow.

    TZA had a SELL-IF signal for today, but was up today, and is a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.92, up 7 percent since the buy.

    Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +4
    Hold: GLD(gold, up 3.1%), SLV(silver, up 7.7%), UCO (2x oil, up 3.3%), QQQQ(down 0.7%)

    Transition to Market Positive:  +3
    Possible Buy: EWQ(France), EWG(Germany), AAPL,

    Transition to Market Negative:  -4
    Possible Sell: EWU(England), DIA, SPY, USO(oil)

    Market Negative: -12
    Wait: TNA(3x), UWM(2x), IWM(1x), AMZN, DRI, GOOG, ERX(3x energy), EWX(emerging mkts), IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), GS

    Comment: Bearish overall, Bullish Oil, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
    Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: none

  10. Diablos – they are adorable! CONGRATS! My sister has a 19 month old and just had twins 2 weeks ago. I don't know how you guys do it! I am barely surviving with just 2 kids.

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