Evicted Bears…

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Are there any more bears left, or did they all get evicted today?

It seems there's never a dull moment in the markets, as you watched today's tape destroy the bears' dreams.  I'm glad I wasn't around for the bear beaten' today, but instead I had to actually go work.  Yes, I do work... from time to time.  Today started off too be a great day... until my car broke down, an hour from home.

Arrrrggggh!  So, I waited an hour for a tow truck, and then another hour to get back home.  Not a good day for me.  When I finally get back to the computer, I see the market squeeze more bears out, and everyone freaking out (myself including... well, just a little bit).

But gang, we all knew that the market could go up to around 1180 spx (and still can), then backtest the broken support line... we just didn't believe it could really do it!  That is what shocked all the bears, as the 1,000 point drop was so bearish for the market, that everyone was only looking for a small bounce back up, and then another crash.

I include myself in that category, as I really thought the market was done yesterday.  But, we should all know by now, that it's extremely hard to kill a bull.  If you look at this move back up using Fibonacci percentages, then we are now at about the 61.8% level, with the possibility of the move continuing to the 78.6% level around 1180 spx.  So, in the grand scheme of things, this is a typical move back up.

Let's also look at it from an Elliottwave point of view.  The first 2 day sell off, from the 1220 high, to the 1180 low... would be wave 1 down.  Then the next 2 days up were wave 2, and the move down to the 105.00 spy low... was wave 3 down.  Now we are on wave 4 up, with wave 5 down coming next.

Will it happen tomorrow?  I don't know?  We could have another up day, to tag the 1180 broken support level first.  The sideways chop fest that we have had for the last 3 days could be a bull flag, (an ugly one... but possible?) which could give the market one more lunge higher tomorrow.

I'm still short... painfully short, but you must endure a lot of pain in the options world of trading.  Nothing is ever as easy as you plan it too be.  They are always out to surprise you, and take your money.

So, if Ms. Market is listening to me right now... I'm Super Duper Bullish right now!  Go Bulls!  ROFLMAO now!

Red

P.S. Hang in there bears... we ain't dead yet!

548 COMMENTS

  1. All good points. Thanks. Your lecture went well with a good scotch.

    And in addition the 50 sma was barely touched, the volume was anemic most of the day, and if we do turn i picked up some great positions.

  2. Ugh, count me in the bear camp Red…smash up day! Not far from scratch thankfully..tomorrow is another day!

    • Unfortunately, I think we will go up again tomorrow, and backtest that 1180 spx (118.00-118.50 spy) previous support level. Bummer I know, but unless so really bad news comes out over night, light volume still rules the upside.

  3. Us bears are a little lonesome tonight. Maybe that's a good sign right there. 🙂

    Puts are ultra cheap. I mean, AAPL 250s for $1.85? C'mon. Also a good sign.

    Yahoo Market Overview says (a little prematurely, IMO) 1170 is dead, forget about it, let's fix our eyes on 1173. OK, then, everybody has a little time to put together their inventory; damn, where'd the floor go? Well, either that or we'll trounce 1173 and that will demoralize what ursas remain. Only Goldman knows for sure.

      • Only Goldman knows for sure, and checks the house before deciding to stage a striptease or an opera.

        Hey, nice blog post today. I enjoy them every day.

          • Iron sharpens iron. I'm finding that I'm getting much better at trading thanks to having people to bounce ideas off of. Still have a lot to learn, of course.

      • wasn't it you that just did a video on the ghost prints and stuff, look at the date on it, saw it and thought it was you that did the video and posted at TTW a link for Keirsten ?

        • Yes… BigIsland, I didn't see the date? Hmmm, I wonder how to interpet it? The date shows next Monday, but no clues as to the predicted close. It just shows the correct closing price.

          Thanks for the chart… keep your eyes peeled, as the ol' saying goes. There's more to this, then meets the eye.

          • OK, just made me search TTW for old post thought I was losing my mind, it was yours and that is why I copied it to you, date caught me right away and thought of your research, maybe we close there again on Monday who knows but something is nor well in bedrock LOL
            PS. if you find more credence to all this make sure you stop in at TTW and tell us all

  4. Another great post!

    I sure hope that you are wrong regarding tomorrow. Looks like all significant resistance will be broken on a strong close. I trade the QQQQ's and am VERY short.

    I noticed that SD's CPs show the same on the SPX. The 15 and 60 min charts look like they want to go lower but the daily looks strong excepting the overhead resistance.

    What bothers me is that my indicators have always used volume. Now I am wondering if the volume data is corrupt. Dark pools, flash and high frequency trading. Gotta wonder……

    • The 60 minute charts look about ready to roll over, but the daily chart is still rolling back up. It should dip back down once, before moving up more, but in a market that's 100% controlled… the game can change at any time.

  5. I keep reading about people talking about at what pt the market will do what. You should not look at price in such absolute terms. It would yield a far more accurate picture if you look at the price RELATIVE to the 'teal' line in the hourly. Where the price is, relative to its 'teal' line. What direction the teal line is heading. How the price reacts at the 'teal' line. Once you figure out the relationship between the price and teal line, they can tell you all you need to know to trade profitably.

    There is pure gold in the hourly data.

      • Tops are hard to pick. So far, I'm pretty happy about going short 116-ish. It could well have dropped from there, and I'd have missed it.

        • Yes, I agreed…. tops are very hard to predict. Sure I'd love to have waiting until now to go short, but I'm with you on getting in at 116-ish. If I didn't get in, it would have fell without me… just my luck.

  6. red, this guys is spot on! the trick is to be on the right side, and not argue with why the market should go a certain direction…for now it is up. what reason do 'they' have to take it down??? I think the GS should be lined up and shot right in the head…and I'd gladly participate…i know, I'm venting, but this just pisses me off!
    http://ampedstatus.com/high-frequency-terrorism

    • Bob…

      This is going to piss you off even more. It's ALL planned and timed around when the markets are at a peak. It's a “dog and pony” show, where the President waits until the market peaks, and then comes out and threatens the banks, like he did back in the January sell off.

      They timed the vote for the passing (or, in this case… NOT passing) the bill to audit the Fed, and clap down on the HFT systems that Goldman (and other crooks) use to trade with, exactly when the market was peaked again, and read to crash anyway.

      That should tell you that the government, and the banks are working together in a big stage show, where the play golf together privately, and then make empty threats using powerful words, in public while the camera's are rolling.

      That's what the blog writer doesn't understand, when he wrote that article. Don't get me wrong, it's a good post… but when you dig deeper, you see that every detail was planned and released at a certain point in time.

      Last month the market hit huge overhead resistance on the weekly chart, when it hit the 200 DMA. So, that's when you decide to bring Goldman up on charges. The market was going to sell off anyway, as the technicals would tell you.

      But, they can use the sell off to gain public support, by blaming it on the banks, and hauling them into congress, for an investigation. They knew Goldman was dirty a year ago. Why didn't they arrest them then?

      Because they need the market to rally, and it wasn't election time. Nothing will be done to Goldman, but some chump change fine, just like the will never pass a bill to audit the Federal Reserve.

      In fact, I believe the Fed will be bankrupt by the end of this year… which is other reason you don't really want to see their books. It's better to delay it until the elections are over, and then throw it all out there together.

      I see a massive sell off coming, as “everything” is going too hit the fan at the same time. It's all planned of course, as while some companies will go bankrupt, others will be bought up at rock bottom bargain prices… which is basically like stealing them for next to nothing.

      I agree that Goldman should be lined up an shot, but let's line up half of Congress and the Senate too… as well as Bernanke, Geithner and Obama. Get them all in one be swoop!

    • That article's a good read, but I think Red is right concerning the dog and pony aspects of the whole financial spectacle.

      Go to opensecrets.org and see who financed Obama's campaign. Also, the Fed and Treasury are full of GS people, notably Bernanke and Geithner. It's all kabuki theater.

    • Bob,

      You are absolutely right, We need to follow the players or manipulators, whatever you want to call them.

      But I have been in this situation before in the 2000 crash with tech and saved myself by simple dumb luck. I awakened one morning and said to myself I have made too much money and its going to stop. Sold out and 5 days later it crashed

      Point now is the probability of making big money in the markets for these players has moved from long to short. If the market moves to 11800 or 1250 on sp you make x.

      If market goes to 9300 or less what do you make and what are the odds going either way?

      If they decide to take the market down it places you in the difficult position of chasing it down. Like last Thursday. What if the market did not rebound. Had you not had your shorts in place you would have missed it completely.

      Any how today is going to be interesting. i think its going to end up again through opex not because of the technical s but manipulation as has been pointed out above.

  7. hey Red! thanks for that explanation…makes total sense. and here we are, another damn up day for the markets. i wouldn't surprised if we surpass the old highs. what a freakin' scam. one of these times i'll get it right and join them on the ride up…hell, it might not be too late now as they'll probably go to 1250 on the s*p. and I agree, all of them need to be lined up and shoot! i love denninger's probability test on the odds that ALL the banks didn't have a losing streak in the last gazillion days. “Now if Goldman's record was predicated on the outcome of a game of chance set of odds and had an 8.67 x 10 to 19th power probability of occurring, for four of these institutions to do so would be that to the 4th power, or something approaching 5.65 x 10 to 73rd power.” if that is not a stacked deck, i don't know what is…the trick for me is to be on their side instead of arguing with them about the POS they are! cause when I do the latter I lose a lot of money. if I just see it for what it is and play their game, I can make money. the scary part though is how they can take down the market in a flash ~ a 1000 points in 15 minutes…now that is freakin' scary! thanks again Red. Great work sir.

  8. Possible alternative scenario?

    I spent some time looking at Cobra's chartbook, notably his chart 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate Trading Signals, and we are at a particular crux of price movement (see MACD and stochastics) and put-call ratio that could go either way. We could have the crash scenario (see Sundancer's posts) which I think makes a lot of sense and am following, but there is a potential trap the way I see it.

    We could also buy our way up to the 1180 level, jump it with a gap opening, and start a bull rally (not that it may necessarily last long). It is clear that the market has much breadth, and the pattern of new highs indicates that we should have further to go.

    Of course, all these buyers could also represent a new crop of sellers, with their net worth (which is paper anyway) disappearing into thin air and relieving the threat of inflation. So that bolsters the bear market case. Cobra has also pointed out some chart formations that support the bear case (Bearish Engulfing, Rising Wedge, Ascending Broadening Wedge).

    I am going to buy some calls today as a hedge. It should only cost a few hundred bucks and give much peace of mind. I will also add to my short position as we approach 1180.

  9. Gang,

    I'm leaning to believe that they will tag that 1180 area (+/- a few points), and hold it through Friday, so the retail people will think everything is OK again, and go shopping over the weekend again… spending more money they don't have.

    Then, as every trader knows by now, option expiration weeks are almost always bullish. Many will go long over the weekend, as you also have the usual bullish Monday too.

    But, I don't think that is what's going to happen next week. I'm not going to say “what”, as I might jinks it. Remember, the last 3 times I put up the cool picture, nothing happened.

    Maybe the picture needs a “Black” background of lightening, instead of “Red”, before it will work? Since I took 3 swings at it, and struck out, it's time for the pinch hitter to replace it… don't you think?

    • Just bought my insurance as I mentioned earlier, very, very cheap calls. The money will be peanuts compared to my gains if we go south.

      Going to set my text alerts and do something else today, I hope. I just love watching the action.

  10. Red, if you believe the teal line will hold, I think it will come down before Monday. Problem is, I don't know how much it will come down by next Friday. I may actually take a huge loss on my May puts and go into June ones instead.

  11. Carl’s morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1157-77.

    1165.25-1174.75 range last night (9.50 points)
    1157-1177 estimate for today (20 points)

    1167 currently, so estimate is -10 to +10 from here (neutral)

    • We some fake prints at 115.86 from yesterday in the afterhours, and also some at 111.30 from Mondays' afterhours. Of course that doesn't always mean they will play out, but let's remain hopeful.

      On the technical analysis side of things, there is the gap fill from yesterday morning, which is 115.20, and of course the big gap fill from Monday morning at 111.50 (spy).

      Lot's of targets below that really need attention given too them…

      • What i find really annoying is that the market seems to like to hit the higher fake prints with more frequency lately. It would be nice to see that change.

      • This from http://topstockspick.blogspot.com/:

        FOR 05/13 SPX resistance , pivot & support
        Resistance R3 1190.31, R2 1184.09, R1 1177.88
        Pivot Point 1166.65
        Support S1 1160.44, 1149.21, S3 1143.00

        Low so far 1164. Going south anyone?

        I may sell 25% of puts around 1149 to pay for the rest, otherwise I'm on the bus to Memphis. SDS stays with me to 1060.

        • I think its a way to suck people in. i am just about to the point that I do not buy anything till eod or last hour.

          • I would have liked to buy a few calls EOD yesterday, got my chance this morning. Otherwise I agree with you. I'm not covering the Big One til EOD, or next.

            Last Thursday was an intraday play, so you have to pick and choose. I think the big boys came in from the club for last Thursday.

  12. I've got VIX up on a screen to help me time my options trades. Wish I'd thought of it before.

    • Yes buying when VIX is low can really work out to your favor. Last week my premiums were going up even though the stock didn't move thanks to VIX

      • I watch the NASDAQ live charts and try to time the end of a big move while the action favors the premium. Don't get bad prices, but could use some refinement. The VIX think may help.

        • Just bought some AAPL 250 puts cheap as dirt. I sold some for 12 times as much last Thursday. VIX looks like it's bottoming.

          Got to watch overdoing, though. My puts are some hurting cowboys right now, and we may be headed higher.

  13. Leo et al

    Evil speculator (see Blogroll) has posted “Mother of all setups” this is for hissubscribers, so I can't see what he's talking about. Does anyone know what this is about? I hope its bearish for the S&P. HELP!!!!

      • I'm loaded up to the gills Red. If we go above 118, I am covering. I imagine this should be around the top. I have June puts now as well.

          • Red, knowing us it's probably die! Anyway, I am watching the Euro closely. If FXE falls below 1.25 and Germany renounces the Euro tomorrow, that should cause some equity selling.

      • I hope we don't show Mole sub info here. Mole is mean and nasty when he's in a good mood. Hate to get him all riled up 🙂

        • No one showed anything, as no one here is signed up for it (that I know of?)… so we don't know what it is. But yes, I agree… we shouldn't post copyrighted or subscription related information here, or on any blog.

  14. This is an interesting chart from “The Grim Reaper”….

    http://www.screencast.com/users/grim_reaper/fol

    Look to the left side of the chart and look at all the supply in the gray/red bars. It's Volume by Price used to see where the transaction happens on the most heavy volume therefore could be the support/resistance.

    Pretty heavy right now at the current levels… Going to be tough to get through it.

    • Oh, yeah, that's very cool. I suppose if we were going to do a jump with a gap opening, it would have been today. I think the market's toast, but still glad I have some calls. We're not totally safe in this zone.

      Gawd, I could have saved a lot of money on my puts. Lesson learned.

      • There is no lesson. It's impossible to call the top unless you are S*ndancer! You have to be willing to take risk, set stops or be fried. I fall into the “fried” category 🙂

        • True, true, true. 🙂 Only the casino operator knows how the dice are loaded.

          I am very happy with my position, overall. Some of the smartest trading I've ever done, even if I lose.

    • This is so cool. I'm neglecting myriad obligations, but this is the chance of a lifetime.

    • Don't think we're there yet. A couple stocks I'm watching need to fail setting a high for the session.

      Should probably switch to text alerts but that's too boring.

  15. SDS is holding up very well, almost makes me suspicious. Still a lot of bearishness, but most can be shaken out with a fake correction.

  16. Red, from Grim's chart it looks like 117.62 is the line in the sand. Again, i will give it some room to overshoot (118) before I cover.

  17. Third rally on diminished volume. This could be it unless Daddy Warbucks throws some fuel on the fire.

    • 11:34 Daddy W sold a big hunk of PG. Looks like we get to have fun for a little while.

        • It's one of my faves now. Once upon a time it was dead, but I'm hoping the 40 point plunge woke it up, up and down.

          I'm not a great stock picker, btw. My SN refers to the fact that I have not traded in a very long time. I used to scan charts on dead tree looking for stocks, kinda hard to do that these days. I need a new method.

    • I am expecting fuel the last hour.on this volume.

      They cannot let this flounder through tomorrow and opex.

      I am having a hard time not adding positions today though.

      • That's why I'm going to drop some of my puts at 1149 or thereabouts. Can't afford to get caught in a rally. There will probably be a good one, as Sundancer has pointed out. If so, I'll buy some more stuff then.

    • Doesn't look too healthy even though there was a large buy (apparently). It didn't react.

  18. Gang,

    When this 60 minute chart rolls over and starts back down, the momentum will be very large. I won't be getting out of my puts until I see some sign of it turning back up.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

    The hardest thing to do, is to hold your position. Many times people will bailed out when they breakeven, only to see the move continue in their direction.

    This move up was like a rocket ship… the move back down will be just as fast and deep. Think twice about bailing out too soon, as this rollercoaster is about at the top, and this is what's up next….

    http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010

    • It went up like a rocket, b/c it WENT DOWN like a rocket before. There is no requirement that it reverses down like a rocket. It can yo yo around 115-118. If it finds support at 115, that will serve as the launching pad for retest of the April high. Historically, the odds is >95%. If I buy some calls, then this time will turn out to be that remaining 5% when it drops instead. LOL I know b/c the gods luv me long long.

      NDX, MID, SML and RUT have broken their respective 'teal' line (my teal lines which are similar but not identical to Sundancer's). SPX, NYA are showing what appears to be 'rejection' at their teal lines. A short position is warranted, should other baby teal lines indicate so. But time is running out for the May puts. They have morphed into lottery tickets now and one must prepare for their journey to the afterlife.

      • NASDAQ swinging i think 30 points is pretty telling. But the vixes sure are slow to react.

        i am nervous about adding today going into opex but it sue is driving me nuts.

        • Down moves occur much faster then up moves. So, we could start the down move into the close today, and crash tomorrow… which would finish the move down, and allow a rally all next week.

          The way things are looking now… we could have a “Black F**day” (I don't want to jinks it).

  19. I'm guessing that we're going to bounce off 1150 today and close around 1160. Another run at 1173, then Goodnight Irene.

    Yahoo was so helpful informing its readers yesterday that 1173 is do or die. Now they'll know to fold fast when it fails. 🙂

        • Looking at this 15 minute chart, you can draw a trendline underneath, just like the one above, and you have a bearish rising wedge. The market is currently riding along the lower support trendline (not shown, but it's whether the moving averages are).

          I expect it to pop up and hit the overhead trendline into the close of the market, as it will be higher by then, allowing it to maintain itself as still in the wedge.

          We it breaks out of the wedge… up or down, it will be a large move. With the low volume that we have now, it favors the bulls.

          If the news about the Germans leaving the Euro, and going back to their own currency is true, the market won't like it. But, they have the announcement set for after the close on Friday, which will give the market the entire weekend to digest the news… meaning that the will stop the sell off from happening.

          Tough to be a bear right now, as the government is out to kill you.

  20. CNBC just showed a poll of “is the stock market fair and open”: – 58% of the polled said no.

  21. Here's a chart to chew on over lunch
    After taking a trip around the blogosphere the amount of speculative capital long is frightening.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/46044
    Last Friday's low was not a coincidence, the operators left 2 $SPX 3 minute gaps. Look where the low came last friday.
    The final gap is @ 1080.35

    The rest of today, no selling will stick intra-day until SPY breaks red containment
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/46038

    Gotta run the rest of the afternoon, be back @ the close

    • Appreciate the update and am sticking with you. But, on the flip side, it seems like a lot of people know about the 1173 level and are going short. If we bust through there, there will be a lot of short covering.

      http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/

  22. I'm having a tough time producing Sundancers chart to follow his comments…must be the old age thing here…any body figure what time chart and what moving avg hes using…

    • To me from his chart and from grim reapers, it looks like resistance is around 117.62 and support is at 116.63 (red containment). If we cross that lower level, it is implied that we have much lower to go.

  23. I know as soon as I write this its going to happen but it doesn't seem to be able to get back through the open…three trys since this morning and trying now on the 5 min and doesn't look like its going to do it again…

    • Today the market is in a holding pattern, while the “powers that be” decide on what news they are going to release to create the next big move… up or down? I think the news will be about Germany dumping the Euro and going back to their own currency. But, it could be anything at this point?

      Regardless of where the market closes today, a big move is coming… a I think it's DOWN!

      • If today ends red after that big run, we're looking pretty good.

        Got some pleasantness in the stuff I'm watching:

        –PG twice came within $0.02 of a new high and failed.
        –SDS is making an intraday bull flag pointing up about a half point with good volume and money flow. The half point out to put us around 116. I'm not selling any puts there.

      • Germany dumping Euro ? When the stargate on the seafloor south of Yemen opens up.

        Germany is the biggest beneficiary of the Euro.

  24. Just in case you need a laugh:
    Remember it takes a college degree to fly a plane, but only a high school diploma to fix one; a reassurance to those of us who fly.

    After every flight, UPS pilots fill out a form, called a 'gripe sheet,' which tells mechanics about problems with the aircraft. The mechanics correct the problems, document their repairs on the form, and then pilots review the gripe sheets before the next flight.

    Never let it be said that ground crews lack a sense of humor. Here are some actual maintenance complaints submitted by UPS pilots (marked with a P) and the solutions recorded (marked with an S) by maintenance engineers.

    By the way,UPS is the only major airline that has never, ever, had an accident.

    P: Left inside main tire almost needs replacement.
    S: Almost replaced left inside main tire.
    *
    P: Test flight OK, except auto-land very rough.
    S: Auto-land not installed on this aircraft.
    *
    P: Something loose in cockpit.
    S: Something tightened in cockpit.
    *
    P: Dead bugs on windshield.
    S: Live bugs on back-order.
    *
    P: Autopilot in altitude-hold mode produces a 200-feet-per-minute descent.
    S: Cannot reproduce problem on ground.
    *
    P: Evidence of leak on right main landing gear.
    S: Evidence removed.
    *
    P: DME volume unbelievably loud.
    S: DME volume set to more believable level.
    *
    P: Friction locks cause throttle levers to stick.
    S: That's what friction locks are for.
    *
    P: IFF inoperative in OFF mode.
    S: IFF is always inoperative in OFF mode.
    *
    P: Suspected crack in windshield.
    S: Suspect you're right.
    *
    P: Number 3 engine missing.
    S: Engine found on right wing after brief search.
    *
    P: Aircraft handles funny. (I love this one!)
    S: Aircraft warned to straighten up, fly right and be serious.
    *
    P: Target radar hums.
    S: Reprogrammed target radar with lyrics..
    *
    P: Mouse in cockpit.
    S: Cat installed.
    *
    And the best one for last
    *
    P: Noise coming from under instrument panel. Sounds like a midget pounding on something with a hammer.
    S: Took hammer away from the midget.

  25. EVERYONE PUT IN TRIGGER ORDERS just in case it moves too fast to enter orders. Trust me, I know from experience. Also, Red mentioned that if you think the SPY is going to go to 105 and you want to cover there, you should put your limit in for 106 so that you wind up buying on the way down, not the way back up.

  26. Sorry to have missed the fun today! But I see that the resistance I spoke about last night held. I had one of your days Red and could not be at the screen!

  27. holy moses – what a day! Thanks for trying to distract us at the end there Red! My son liked it 🙂

          • Tomorrow wont get me to even but I am confident that I am close. Monica caused me to research the viability of ETFs and PUTs.

            NOW I AM NERVOUS! 🙂

            Here is another comment that will make Mon laugh. I have totally disregarding the fake print premise and I have been tracking them before you changed format. Now I have lost count. However, I am subscribed to a free trial of a charting service that is used over at ETF corner. Yesterday was day one. I noticed spikes on the low time frame charts that were large. I made a note of the level as they were all close. Did not draw a line as I am learning the tool. Guess what? That is where the QQQQ's closed.

            Having said that, while I was tracking the fake prints they were running 30/70 unfavorable. I am not passing judgement just reporting. I still have an open mind. I remember using quote tracker and they provided a mechanism for filter spikes which they called errors.

            So I am not prepared to say either way but rest assured I will track them for the next 29 days!!!! 🙂

          • Hi – both leveraged ETFs and options will kick your but if you don't get the timing right. I just find that with options, you have a chance at recouping your losses if there is time left. Earl of is the expert on the leveraged ETFs I still think both the leveraged ETFs and options are better vehicle for traders, not investors. I would be smart to just short the SPY but the ability to use leverage is unfortunately too alluring for me. The good thing about options is that your loss is limited to your investment (which can be smaller). The danger though is that you can lose all of your investment. I guess there is no right answer.

          • I have a mixture: some ETFS outright, June ETF calls, May puts on equities.

            I'm thinking that the May puts may be clinkers. There will have to be a meaningful step down to convince the sheep that the worst is over; that's when I'll unload them, probably 1100. That will be a ****pile of profit.

          • I understand them. It is the systematic risk that became obvious the day of the 'fat finger'. The leveraged ETFs all fell to near zero! Many have argued that they are doomed to fail.

            There have been issues raised by folks trying to get out at what they though was a hugh profit only to see .1 on their screen!

          • I'm not convinced of the fake prints but I am willing to keep an open mind. They may/may not help because you never know what direction you are going in first.

      • Tomorrow's supposed to be a turnaround day (new moon). I'm still in the hole, though, so there's no way I'm covering.

        I was thinking along the lines of recouping my entire investment with first sale.

        The moon thing is pretty reliable. The reversal might only last a day, but it does reverse.

        Morning ought to be a POS for bulls. I think I'll buy more calls then.

          • Rip,

            I have noon tomorrow for the new moon. I guess maybe it's a different time depending on where on the planet you happen to be?

          • I have a list from the US Naval Observatory that says 5/14; happened to notice that my kitchen calendar says 5/13.

            From memory (which might have been incorrect) I thought it was tonight, which would affect tomorrow's trading, or so I thought.

            From looking at old charts, tomorrow might show a reversal signal, too, like a doji.

  28. Had a chance to buy more puts, still pretty cheap! Bullishness abounds, lots more shock & awe to come.

  29. Max contain on the 60 min kept suffocating $SPX until it collapsed under it's own weight

    After $SPX broke red containment, it was lights out. The sharp reversal backtested red containment
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/46042

    I really don't know what to expect for tomorrow, there isn't any room to move on the downside without setting off an avalanche

    Time element:
    The longest counter-move of the current bull mkt. has been 27 CD.
    *IF* we are going to put in a July terminal high the low should come next week or very early the following.
    The two dates that I have sequences for are 5.18.2010 & 5.19.2010, which are 22 & 23 CD from 4.26.2010.

    • That would be options expiration. Perhaps we bounce around here and then start the avalanche mid next week. Thanks so much for all your help.

  30. I didn't realize that the FXE (euro) closed below it's support level of 125. This good be a huge wind to the downside in US equities I think.

  31. Carl at day’s end:

    1157-1177 estimate for today (20 points)
    1153.75–1172 actual range today (18.25 points )
    Market was 3-5 points below Carl’s range.

    Trades: No trades
    Grade: C (lost no money)

  32. TNA opened down 0.6%, and the opening gap was filled. TNA was up 2.0% at it’s high, and closed down 3%.

    An earlier gap from $56.70 to $57.39 remains unfilled.

    We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA. The new moon is tomorrow, at 12:30PM eastern.

    AmericanBulls had TNA with a Hold today, and TNA was down, so there may be a possible sell on TNA for tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $55.66. TNA closed at $60.04, up 7.87% from the buy.

    AmericanBulls had TZA with a Wait, and TZA was up today, so there may be a possible buy on TZA for tomorrow.

    Volume for TNA today was about normal.
    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 5.8% with TNA down 3%. No divergence.

    TNA had been down 4 days in a row, then up 3 days, now down today. Neutral for TNA.

    The low for TNA was from five days ago at $42.29. Today’s low was $59.22, 40% higher. Good for TNA.

    Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 55 to 56 while TNA fell 3%. A meaningful divergence. Good for TNA.

    MACD fastline is below zero and flat. MACD slowline is above zero and falling. Not helpful for for TNA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX had a white candle about mid way between the upper Bollinger Band and the 20day moving average mid line. MACD fast line was falling again today. The fast line is still rising. Not helpful for TNA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a red candle that opened at the 20day moving average and closed below it. Looks suspiciously like $RUT might fall tomorrow, bouncing off that 20day. MACD appears to be rising. May not be good for TNA.

    NYSE down volume was 4 times the up volume today – not good for TNA.
    TNA had a higher high & higher low (good for TNA) and lower close (not good for TNA)

    Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
    $ 693 million flowing out the market 2 days ago.
    $ 858 million flowing into the market yesterday.
    $ 270 million flowing into the market today.
    Good for TNA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, good for TNA for tomorrow. (Relying on the Ultimate Oscillator divergence, higher high & higher low)

  33. The Daily view from Americanbulls

    TNA was a Hold today, and in spite of being down 3% today, is a Hold again for tomorrow. The buy price was $55.69 & the close today was $60.11, up 7.9% since the buy.

    TZA was a Wait today, and in spite of being up 2.8% today, is a Wait again tomorrow.

    Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
    IWM (1x $RUT)
    UWM (2x $RUT)
    TNA (3x $RUT)
    UUP(US Dollar)
    DIA
    SPY
    QQQQ
    QLD (2x QQQQ)
    SCO (-2x Oil)
    DTO (-3x oil)
    EPV (-2x Europe)
    DZZ (-2x Gold)

    The list to avoid:
    SLV(silver)
    UCO(2x Oil)
    AAPL
    GOOG
    EWG(Germany)
    EWQ(France)
    EWU(England)
    EWX(emerging mkts)
    RWM (-1x $RUT)
    TWM (-2x $RUT)
    TZA (-3x $RUT)
    SRS (-2x RE)
    DRV (-3x RE)

    The following are possible buys tomorrow:
    USO(oil)
    GS
    ERY (-3x energy)
    SKF (-2x Financials)
    FAZ (-3x Financials)
    SPXU (-3x $SPX)
    QID (-2x QQQQ)
    DXD (-2x DOW30)

    The following are possible sells tomorrow :
    IYR(1x RE)
    URE(2x RE)
    DRN(3x RE)
    GLD (gold)
    UGL (2x Gold)
    ERX(3x energy)
    AMZN
    DRI

    Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: none

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