Saturday, July 13, 2024

Tomorrow Will Be Worst…

Gang,

I will probably do a special video again this weekend, so we can all try to figure out what to do next. Needless to say, once we bottom in the 875-990 area we should all go long. We still have one more high to make this year before we enter into Primary Wave 3.

Our upside target is DIA 118.16 (about Dow 11,800), and we are estimating that to be hit around June 25th, 2010. After that, all hell is going to break loose, as many see us dropping 5,000 points on the Dow before the end of the year.

For all those who believe in God, this will be a time to pray a lot. We have been given the road map over the last 6 months, just as God planned it I'm sure.

I had no idea that I would write this blog a year ago, and that it would change my life and those who follow it. I've always been open minded to learning new things, and I've never trusted the government, but I didn't really know how corrupt they really are... but I do now.

When I first seen the 1047 spx fake print back in January, and then seen it hit the 1044.50 level tagged in February (pierced it a little due to downward momentum), I knew then for sure that the market was controlled and manipulated.

I started to keep my eye open after that, as I was burnt badly on the hard reversal back up from 1044.50, while I was still short. I learned my lesson on that one, and now I pay very close attention to those fake prints, as they are the road map to what lies ahead.

God must have decided to use my skills at building websites (as well as entertaining you with my daily posts, as I'm not really that good of a trader) to warn everyone who would listen, of the coming disaster that lies ahead. He even pointed me some help by allowing Sundancer to find my website and to offer his knowledge of the game, to help others.  I doubt if Sundancer knew either, how much help he would be doing when he found my website, and decided to become a regular poster on it.

Many people have learned a lot now, and are hopefully more prepared for what lies ahead.  While I really don't like all this doom and gloom, it seems too have found me, and wants me to inform people about it.  I would love for it to not happen, and the forecast be wrong, but the charts tell me otherwise.

When the final top is in, I expect to see the moving averages on the monthly and weekly chart come really close together.  The monthly will lag the market when it crosses over, but the weekly should almost be touching by the time we hit the high in the market.  Unfortunately, I can't stop it from happening.  I really wish I could, as I don't want to see so many people hurt from the collapse.  The only thing I can do is to warn everyone in advance, so that they can prepare for what's coming.

Anyway, enough doom and gloom for now, as it's making me depressed, even while I'm making money on the fall.  For tomorrow, everyone should have their triggers placed in case your brokerage firm goes down during the crash.  I can't advise you what to buy, but you can look at Monica's comment on the previous post for a general idea on how to position yourself.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago

thanks Mon for your comment on your triggers….I had to leave so couldn't get back to you promptly…I dont want to get greedy so I think I will set up for a sell at 101 and a buy long @ 100. It might get me out a little early and in a little early but at those areas I caught 14 points plus coming down and can get that much going back up…

Its been a good week and half with everyone thanks for all comments and hope to hear from you tomorrow and your trades do well…

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA was a Wait today, was down today, and remains a Wait for tomorrow.

TZA was a Hold today, was up today, and remains a Hold for tomorrow. The buy price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.68, up 25.9% since the buy.

Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only one was sold or bought: UUP was sold.

These are to hold on to:
EWG(Germany)
EWQ(France)
RWM (-1x $RUT)
TWM (-2x $RUT)
TZA (-3x $RUT)
SRS (-2x RE)
ERY (-3x energy)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
QID (-2x QQQQ)
DXD (-2x DOW30)

The list to avoid:
IWM (1x $RUT)
UWM (2x $RUT)
TNA (3x $RUT)
UUP(US Dollar)
GLD (gold)
UGL (2x Gold)
USO(oil)
ERX(3x energy)
AAPL
AMZN
DRI
GOOG
DIA
SPY
QQQQ
QLD (2x QQQQ)
EWX(emerging mkts)

The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
IYR(1x RE)
URE(2x RE)
DRN(3x RE)
SLV(silver)
UCO(2x Oil)
GS
EWU(England)

The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
DRV (-3x RE)
SCO (-2x Oil)
DTO (-3x oil)
EPV (-2x Europe)
DZZ (-2x Gold)

The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: none
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: none

Summary: Very Bearish
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold on to TZA, avoid TNA

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

from “evil speculator” – “For the bulls we are quickly approaching a line in the sand that must not be breached. If we breach the May 6 lows things will get out of hand quickly.”

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Thx Ben…everything I see says get a hard hat and look out below…

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago

Red – can you elaborate on the MA coming together …. not sure I understood …

Also, if this move breaks below the previous low by a big amount, then we would have a lower low in place. …. so why would we consider a higher high after that ? Because of the false tick or something else too ?

Consider me your contrarian indicator 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Yes, the fake DIA print of 118.16 tells me they will rally it to that level before they finally tank the market. This will allow the moving averages to cross each other on the weekly chart, and possibly the monthly too.

Once the month moving averages cross over top of each other, the market is going to free fall. Estimates are 5,000 points lower. But, the writing is on the wall, so I must listen to it, and see how it lines up with the charts.

PeterK80
PeterK80
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red,

Did we also get a downward target with a fake print for tomorrow? Or was that already hit with the crash on May 6th?… In other words where ar eyou getting your targets from. Thanks

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  PeterK80

I've been looking, but I haven't seen one. Wish I knew what it was, but I have two targets in mind for tomorrow. One is 980-990, and the other is around 875 spx.

I think it will be quick, lasting only in the first hour or two, and then a rally back in the afternoon. Should look like Feb. 5th, 2010 did… a doji.

Keep your eye out for fake prints, and let me know if you find one. Thanks.

PeterK80
PeterK80
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red…. you are running a great site here. I wish i read your post yesterday because I made some dumb moves today after I was having a few great days of trading. Can I ask where you get those targets?

Also on my ameritrade software I see fake prints intra-day all the time.. just smaller ones and I use them for trendlines. It works about 75% of the time. I'm trying to figure out how the machines are talking to each other 🙂

Anyways, the last time we had th eflash crash… I was luck enough to be in vxx…. I just dont know if I have the nerves to buy it when we are this over sold. But this is not a normal market… lastly, check out this video. His projections are similar to yours in the long run. Called a huge fall in May with a new high later in June or July! Maybe you will be right. http://www.youtube.com/user/hsdentfinancial#p/u

amolpatil2k
amolpatil2k
14 years ago
Reply to  PeterK80

Harry Dent goes beyond Red. Dow down 8000 as opposed to Red's estimate of 5000. Good video BTW. Thx.

wendel
wendel
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I agree completely that this will happen.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

before everyone agrees to see a crash tomorrow. Jay strauss (jaywizz) has been calling it good lately. tomorrow a low around 11am then a rally in the afternoon. end of day -the data isn't in yet

and breakpoint trades sees a comparison between now and Feb 4th (thurs) and then friday. Market spiked down hard in the am but ended unchanged (hammer) next twenty days rallied. similarities using macd Histogram (divergence) but didn't show in the macd (lines)_between now thurs/fri and then Feb 4th/5thfriday

I'll have to make sure I get sundancer's containment lines. I really couldn't read the chart and make out the numbers.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

That's about what I'm expecting too Ben. A crash in the morning, and then a rally into the afternoon, forming a doji, just like Feb. 5th, 2010.

The Smiths
The Smiths
14 years ago

Extremely bullish tomorrow or Monday

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  The Smiths
bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  bigbadwolfusa

should of put his address….

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  The Smiths

Yes I agree…

We are ready to turn up hard on the market. It's way oversold now. I do expect it to happen tomorrow or Monday.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
14 years ago

Ok, first time post. First thank you Red for the blog and I agree Sun Dancer has added alot to all. Sundancer reminds me of Fatima, not sure if your posting ID is tied to this? FWIW, I am a toasted bear, and have been holding positions since last summer, but am thankful my shorts are ETFs and not puts where I would of been completely wiped out. I own some Faz from 58.00 and EDZ at 16, both of which have resplit. My question is Roubini thinks another percent and if sundancer is correct, up to 875 ish. You mention a reverse Doji, so any Idea what I should put my limit order sells in tomorrow a.m. so if it gets bad and then reverse, I can get out a decent price. I saw some on the FAZ board added to put a sell in at 29.84.
Thanks in advance.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

Just look for the 980-990 area, and watch what time it is. I suspect the selling will stop around 11am to noon est. If the market is in that range by then, I'd say the selling is over.

Of course it could fall to 875, but then I'd expect it to hit 980-990 very early… like 10am or something, to allow it to continue falling on down and end by noon.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red, will be watching and reading your blog. Best Regards!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

Red,

I see you are in a reflective mood about your blog today, and I'd like to say that it certainly is a very good work. Those who have eyes can see. I've passed along warnings to some people who I thought would be hurt by the crash, and they have been grateful. Thanks, friend, for a job well done.

Take a look at Cobra's McClellan Oscillator chart, and you will see that it is very likely that after we reach the full extent of this decline, there will be a rally (might only be a day or three) and then a return to a deeper low, possibly at the 875 area? Here's the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

I am also mindful of the Ascending Broadening Wedge that Cobra points out on his main page, that has a target of 1008-1019, equivalent to the burgundy and white lines on Sundancer's chart. I believe we will have a bounce at that level, and a trading opportunity.

I will dump all May puts and possibly some June ones in that range and look for an intraday rally, but will hang onto majority of inventory til 900s.

I'm not too sure about the timetable. This is a very big move and is taking days to play out. Monday could be the reversal day, I think, but I'll be paying attention tomorrow!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Yes Rip,

If we drop hard in the morning today, then we could do another intraday reversal like Feb. 5th was. We need a capitulation day to clean out all the bulls' stops from the last 6 months.

Then a rally can start that will start to squeeze the bears. That 875 level seems too far away to reach in one day, but that 980-990 level isn't out of reach. I have placed trade triggers to sell at 990, and buy at 985.

Time is also important, as the first few hours should produce the most selling, and then a possible huge rally in the afternoon, which could gives the green day Cobra talked about. Of course it would probably look like a doji, and only barely up, but that's what I think could happen.

Then they will have the weekend to calm things down, and stage a huge rally on Monday. We'll see how it plays out I guess.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think we may have an intraday rally from 1017 and hit 980 towards the close for a solid red candle, and then a solid white candle on Monday, perhaps with the lows in the morning. Remember that the big boys like to trade in the afternoon.

In any case, I have my triggers set at 1020 for May puts and 980 for everything else, will check out buys on the fly. Probably just some June calls.

Happy trading today!

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

Cobra says (for today)

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX rose more 18%, as has discussed in 05/04 Market Recap, there’re more than 80% chances a green day tomorrow.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

Breakpoint trades says “look for the 9dma to act as resistance on any sharp rally. It acted as support on the way up (weeks ago) now its acting as resistance.”

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

http://www.rickackerman.com/

Rick Ackerman can be amazinginly accurate. His free blog says “The blue chip average fell 376 points yesterday, and we’re predicting it will fall a further 470 points, to exactly 9592, before buyers get decent traction.” Just two days ago he touted 1098.75 as the emini low. AND it his 1098.75 as the low (intraday) and bounced almost 20 pts. Right to the tick!

His paid subscription (me) reads that the E mini equivelent of this dow reading is 1022.75

My gut tells me we rally and I'm going to take jawizz advice that the bottom may be around 11am (or was it 11:30)

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

I wish people would stop using the term “crash”, capital markets exist for one reason & that is to harvest speculative capital.

This was posted last friday:
I don't make decisions based on oscillators, I follow Rituals. There is a weekly setup that has been providing downward pressure on the market & IMO will continue to until it is completed.

Nothing has changed, except more bottom pickers.

I don't know what the operators have planned after they run the stops from 5.6.2010.
Sometime today, SPY will probably dance with 108 area on the upside.

One thing traders should ALWAYS be long on is Patience.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I checked to see if I used the term 'crash' this morning and, oops, I did. You are right, of course. I love 'ritual dance of the harvest of speculative capital' but it lacks brevity.

The ritual is much like stampeding the sheep to the shearing pen, so the 19th century 'panic' works pretty well, too. 🙂

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

The thought police are alive and well 🙂

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

If you want to learn about Rituals, you can dig back through my old posts

There are no coincidences
This was posted on Wednesday Night

Now this close on the SPY today is rather scary if you're long
The operators did this same Ritual during the Oct. 08' fall harvest of Spec. Capital.
The Wednesday of that Week here was the SPY Ritual
10.8.2008 Open: 97.52
10.8.2008 Close: 97.51
5.19.2010Today Open: 111.77
5.19.2010 Close: 111.76

This numbers game really is simple!!!!!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I do want to learn, and I will! I have a million commitments I'm ignoring while this one plays out, so will muddle along another week or so, but I do intend to learn the ropes.

It is very much like a trapeze act.

Joe Jackson here
Joe Jackson here
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Yeah, But make sure you pay attention to how many times he has been wrong. Remember the posting regarding consecutive days down of a few days back.

Look, if he were that good he would not be wasting valuable time posting here. Do your own homework.

Go visit the chartpatterntrader.com. That is where most of the info here comes from!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

Well, he was pretty darn good at calling the sequence, so I'm paying attention. Granted, he's more of a long-range trader which is not everyone's style.

I've got Levine bookmarked, too, and George Reyna.

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Absolutely want to learn this sundancer 🙂 – very interested in determining what you saw to kick this off and determine how you came up with the levels to watch 🙂

You mentioned that you use MA in multiples of 8 – can you share which ones specifically ? Also, do u use SMA or EMA or any other kind ?

Thanks a lot 🙂

Joe Jackson here
Joe Jackson here
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Hey.

Google Paul Levine. You will can download several articles of the MAs he uses. Someone posted it a while back.

It is a great read!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Hi Sun – thanks. I have all my triggers ready and will only buy non leveraged instruments including DE.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday's range, entirely below the 1100 level, makes me think that the market will drop into the 1030-40 range before turning upward. My range estimate for today is 1035-1075. Once the low has been established I think the ES will begin a rally that will take it to 1300 and higher.

1057.50 – 1180.50 range last night (23 points)
1035-1075 estimate for today (40 points)
average actual range last 9 days has been 24.5 points

1062 currently, so estimate is -27 to +13 from here (very bearish)

Anna
14 years ago

Good morning all some of my thoughts on today and a great picture!
http://hotoptionbabe.com/2010/05/21/another-cra

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Man… that poor cat must be hating life, with hair like that. LOL

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I don't know if today will be the capitulation day or not, as the futures aren't really down that much. But I do think it will look similar to February 5th, where we sold off early and then rallied into the afternoon.

The day ended closing up slightly and sparked a huge rally from it. Time is critical here, as I believe the selling will end within the first few hours. I will close my shorts during the morning session, regardless of how far down the market goes, or does go.

There is no way to know if we go all the way down to just below 1000, or just retest the 1050 area. We are overdue for a bounce, so if you are playing short term positions like me, you might want to close them today, and reload next week.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Europe is rally right now (as far as I can tell with a 15 min delay) and I think may be ready to head south again when we open. How convenient!

Just eyeballing their trendline, I think they'll drop a good 3% more this morning.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

jawizz out with an update

http://jaywiz.blogspot.com/

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

I agree with your sentiments. Most would rather play a positive game. I do think there is a positive however.

If the scenario plays out and we get the expected P3 people will finally understand how corrupt and inept our government is. Not the structure such as outlined in the Constitution and Bill of rights but those corrupt 4rth branch bureaucrats and politicians that do not understand free market principals.

Good luck today.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Looks like they are going for gap fill this morning.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Sun said they would dance around containment at 108.

The Smiths
The Smiths
14 years ago

gs is up today???
wow even on a market gap down?

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

i am out of all shorts and holding. Hit my targets. and a bounce seems due maybe not today

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

VIX is broken out and I think ready to romp.

Anna
14 years ago

Fake prints all on the upside

http://content.screencast.com/users/Annamall2/f

Bluhfurble
Bluhfurble
14 years ago

Your comments would be more enjoyable if you'd keep all that god business to yourself. Good for you if you find comfort or encouragement in all that fantasy, but it clutters & detracts from your posts.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Bluhfurble

I beg to differ. It's what makes his post interesting.

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  Bluhfurble

If you wish to know the mind of a man, listen to his words.
Chinese Proverb

The Smiths
The Smiths
14 years ago

Even more sig small gap up on GS while while the market tanked at the open. wow

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  The Smiths

That's probably all we are going to get today on the downside, as it looks like option expiration is wanting them to close it around 108.00 spy.

Of course it might swing back down and retest the low, or not? But, since we are so oversold at this point, I'd say we close green for sure.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

Amazing what that 20 points did to my account balance.

I'm calling a big red candle for today, because of this backtest.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

I think we will retest the low, but I don't see a big red day, as the volume going up was huge. Must have been a buy program hit? The volume going down now is weak, and not likely to break the double bottom today. The bears might need to rest a few days.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

That rally didn't go far despite the volume, lots of sellers.

The bulls were fighting back all day yesterday, and lost. This is going to be a real shockerino, I think.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

It was dancing around 108 as Sun mentioned. I actually shorted more – I know I am probably crazy.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

I'm with you Rip. I close puts in the 990s. I am closing my eyes and waiting.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I was talking about May puts Monica. I'm sure you will be fine with the June puts, as you have time to wait for the drop.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Nope – I am talking about my May's as well. We will be just fine.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I priced some puts and they were a little expensive, will check again on this push.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

I should be better about that.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Just bought some Mays for a day trade. Way cheap.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Cool. We'll sink or swim together then.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

Amazing what that 20 points did to my account balance.

I'm calling a big red candle for today, because of this backtest.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

HI Monica, EMA 50 on SPy is 107.93

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

Gracias muchacho! That should more or less hold as resistance then.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

Red It's been a good ride, but I've ruffled some feathers with the operators & they have dispatched their trolls with the alphabet soup groups. (Joe Jackson Here)

You've come a long way since I first started posting in January. Keep up the good work & a abundance of resources will follow.

To everybody: Just Remember the Rituals Never Change

If you have a serious question, you can email me, sundancer222@gmail.com (be warned the alphabet soup groups will be monitoring dialogue)

Stay safe & take care of your family

Sundancer390

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thanks Sun…

I knew that there would come a time that this site was noticed. Maybe I shouldn't have done the video I did or change the site's look, which increased traffic… and allowed them to find it.

But, their time is near an end as 2012 approaches. The good will eventually win the battle.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Goodbye Sun. We will miss you.

Diablos
Diablos
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Hey Sundancer,

Hate to see ya go, and hope you change your mind.

Thank you for all you've done.

Turbo Tim
Turbo Tim
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Sundancer
You should not go. You belong here. Plus summer is just starting so you can dance in the sun. We enjoy your work, even though we dont post that much

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

So the casino operators are looking for card counters, huh?

Please keep tabs, Sun, and be well.

ashsail10
ashsail10
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thanks Sun. We will definitely miss you.

Al
Al
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thanks Sundancer, appreciated all your inputs. Be well.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Can't wait until this is all over so that I can finally leave the house!

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I dont know Mon…weren't you out last week…and now your knee deep in…its in your blood…you aint leaving

Arch
Arch
14 years ago

Thanks Sundancer… We have been following your advice and really appreciate all your help.
Will miss you.

JoeMarc
JoeMarc
14 years ago

Hi Red, thanks once again for your time and input !! my feeling is 990 is a pretty big call, I just dont see that happening. However, if it does, a great LONG opportunity for many…… I believe 1020-1030 will be the low…

Thanks
Joseph

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I closed out my puts gang… but they were May puts. The 60 minute chart is looking bullish now, like it wants to roll back up. This should give us a big up day on Monday, as we are pretty oversold here.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

congrats red! i am hanging on. thanks for all your advice.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, this backtest is pretty vigorous. My account looks like a truck rolled over it. The opposite of opening gains.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

If you are long term Rip, you'll be fine. But, I do expect a big up day on Monday. Be prepared for more pain.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

remember – today is oct 10

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have some May stuff but didn't pay much for it. Good risk/reward. Had some good gains earlier, hope they'll be back so I can cash in.

Really hard to tell how today will go. Public opinion pretty strong both ways.

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I dont know Red…dont want to give up to early…haven't even gotten back to Pivot yet..

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

my gut tells me that a bear is learking in the bushes. usually we need an intraday slingshot to go higher. It's rare to get such a huge drop with no downside worth noting. May puts now are CHEAP. AND worth it.
Risk reward is very good hear.

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

“my gut tells me that a bear is learking in the bushes”…I agree for now

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  bigbadwolfusa

me too.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

Once they start down everyone will say “Oh Shit”! As Mole says from the Evil Speculator site. “The Bulls will be running with their hair on fire”!!

Outrageously funny.

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

agree…if this is the move up it just doesn't seem right that you cant get this thing to pivot point with all this effort…gut says for now something stinks…

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  bigbadwolfusa

ok got PP now lets see how long ya can hold it

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

LOL

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

My account is as bloody as Carrie at the prom.

You know, I wouldn't even be looking for a lower low if it wasn't for Fat Freddie. I'd be making a buy list.

So if there is such a thing as market operators and alphabet agencies, they can blame Fat Freddie.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

They “are” Fat Freddie…

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

LOL, well they can blame themselves. 5/6 was a tip-off of a breakdown.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Me too., It's painful. Hopefully our stubborness pays off.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

Compared to the huge drop. This is a proverbial “Dead Cat bounce”
for this rally to be real you have to get a stampede going (I think)

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

VIX, you out of that shower yet?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

time to pray and i'm not even religious!

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I'm an un-abashed Catholic. Been to Medjugorje twice.

but does God want me to be poor? Apparently so.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

As a hedge I bought a 1210 gold call for June at 340. Expires Tues

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

no hedge here. its do or die.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

You won't get hurt with that.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

This is a falling wedge, which usually produces a violent breakout. I could easily see 1120 on Monday. There is always going to be bear shakeouts.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

The 60 minute chart is very oversold and hooking back up now. We could see a big move up on Monday coming.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Guess you cut your puts on time. I 've been banking coin on the long side today but just bot some June puts

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

I made a bad call yesterday, thinking we would go down further. We are going up for several days at least. Monday should be up big.

Anna
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yeah thanks allot for pushing me so hard!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Let's see how hard the bears push back here. SPX is at its TL.

Anna
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

FWIW if you are long minded then I am thinking short

Elliott-Wave-Education.com
Elliott-Wave-Education.com
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Today we got the bounce I called for yesterday on my site, depending on what corrective pattern we get here (looks simple) I don't see us rallying over 1,100. We will most likely chop sideways for a couple days while the market digests the recent happenings. Then we will start W5 of W3 down which will be severe, CNBC will shit when this happens next week.

Cheers!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Thanks EW guy…

Post a link to the chart for us, if you don't mind.

Anna
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

I shouldn't have listened to your doom story yesterday as I got hit, I was long till you keep pushing me to buy puts, my own fault, I should know better

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Anna

We are all responsible for our own decisions.

Anna
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

yes I said I was stupid to listen to him didn't I!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

She is just venting. Let her be. Anna is a big girl. 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

can it also produce a breakout to the downside?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Not likely this time Monica. The daily chart is ready to roll up too.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

so help me g-d then.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Protect your profits. Take your money and run.

Still got tons to keep. No need to pray NOR risk it.

Just think of your poor husband's ulcer. LOL Besides you dont want him to pull all his hairs out and turn into Homer Simpson. LOL

Protect what you have gained.

william shatner
william shatner
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

This site has deteriorated into a respite for compulsive gamblers. When you are holding large option positions and do not know how to liquidate, it spells trouble.

It is very sad. Like you said, she has made a ton and will walk away broke.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

such pleasant people flocking here. Sundancer, I miss you already!

william shatner
william shatner
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

It is not my intent to flog or poke fun. I am a recovering compulsive gambler. Lost everything at the Track. Not your concern.

No one, when I see one.

Get some help before you have to go through the h$ll that I did.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Before you go giving your advice to people here, you need to first become their friend. I don't know if you are a troll, or not, but get an avatar, get your disqus name registered, and offer something of value.

If not, you will be not be welcomed here. The people on this site try to help it other, not belittle them. You are new, and you may or may not be a regular reader.

If you are a regular reader, and this is your first post, you aren't started it off on a good first foot today. Take my advice seriously if you want to continue posting on this site.

I'm not really in a good mood today…

william shatner
william shatner
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

You will not hear from me again; don't fret. I feel compelled to help those with my affliction but I learned long ago that I can not change the world.

I tried and my mind is at ease.

Good luck to you!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Tell Spock I said Hi…

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red,

How's your day going, didn't see you in the chat room.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Not good Newbear…

I'm a fool who hurt a dear friend, and I'm very angry at myself right now. It's best for me to just be quiet for now.

P.S. Tell Sela to email me a full size picture of his avatar, and I'll put “selaminator” on it for him.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Not true Red – I think you are a great person and you should have more faith in yourself.

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red you are too hard on yourself. Everyone makes mistakes.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Maybe so, but friendship is more important too me then money. Friendship lasts forever, and money is just a means to feed yourself, and provide a comfortable living.

I'd rather be poor and have very close friends, then be rich and have no friends.

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I guess the term “poor” and “rich” are relative terms when you look at it that way.

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red – you gave good advise based on what you knew … that is the best anyone can do …

Just like Sun gave the best information he had … you and Mon followed it made $$, I didn't and stubbornly held to my longs …. in the end we make our own decisions …. you are a great guy, don't beat yourself up …

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

exactly AS2009. If we don't have our own convictions, we are sure to lose every time! Red has an amazing heart.

zstock, Pro Select!
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Short term USO exit is 32.7, this one is get in and get out, but still have some left for 38 eventual exit.
June 29 calls, play like this…enter under 3.60, get out 3.95, next couple of days.

Elliott-Wave-Education.com
Elliott-Wave-Education.com
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

RDL,

Do you follow lunar and planetary cycles?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I don't really follow them, but I do see there value. I just don't have the time to do so. Cobra does posts on them sometimes, and I read his. Also, I go to Astro Cycles sometimes to see where we are. (link in Astrology Moon Cycles category)

SC
SC
14 years ago

FWIW, the ride on the shortbus is over. Market capitulated yesterday. Check the statistics, it is the third largest panic selling in 20 yrs. Today's rebounce with gusto. The bottom is in, based on historical pattern. The worst that can happen, is a retest of 1050 ES.

Don't bet the farm on a crash.

Anna
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Hi SC well I was long going into today and Red kept calling me and saying that for sure we were going to crash today, buy puts buy puts please I know that it is, and stupid me listened and trusted, and now what have could have been a fabulous day is killing me and the kitties outlook..after 13 years trading to be so stupid just kills me.. be aware

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anna – Red is your friend and was trying to help you. The deck has not been played yet – we do not know the answer.

Anna
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

He sure hasn't so far and i know better!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Life is not all about money – friends are more important.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Cut your losses, Anna.

You can come back. You are a tough girl. A new day will come. You will be fine. 🙂 Trust your own method. Listen to no one else's opinion. 🙂 Your own method works.

I am 100% confidence that you will bounce back !!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

TL actually about 1095. We could spend all day up here.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

If 1090 holds, bears are in good shape for the afternoon. Perhaps a double bottom.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Thanks Rip.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

This little rally shouldn't take long. Daily TL is broken down.

I'm looking for buyers this afternoon, will bail out of May puts at 1060 most likely.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Thank you so much. What time do we have to bail on the May's in order not to have to take the inventory in? Just before close OK?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

If you want to stick til EOD, Ameritrade will exercise them for you if they do not sell.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

But don't you have to have the capital to buy them back, in that case?

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Your ITM puts will be cancelled and replaced with a short positions in SPY.

You don't want that hassle. Just close out your options before market closes today.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

k – thanks SC.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Rip – this is so hard – argh!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Monica,

Charts say a big rally on Monday is coming. You should dump some puts, and re-assess later.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

No way am I dumping my June puts – I have until June for those. I will have to dump my May puts EOD.

wendel
wendel
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Monica….. one of the easiest ways is this.

We are still in an uptrend. We will be seeing a higher high.

Buy SSO at 60 min. cross-overs.

pezhead9000
14 years ago

leo – just stumbled across your site. keep up the good work!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  pezhead9000

Thanks Pezhead

zstock, Pro Select!
14 years ago

USO under 32, buy the June 29 calls, wait for 38 exit, summer driving season prices are coming.
Closing out DLTR shorts. Taking profits.

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago

Z- how are you coming up with 38 exit ?

PRAMOD
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

because I told him 🙂 code- YM

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  PRAMOD

Hi Pramod, Hope you are doing well. Long time no see.

PRAMOD
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

Hey, I am doing well….. busy with my job and hence not trading much nowadays. GL and take care 🙂

zstock, Pro Select!
14 years ago

IWM bounced off it's 200 sma, 63 or so, and DIA, stopped going higher at it's 200 day approx 102..
Probably get another pop higher on Monday, and then a down Tuesday.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Today surprised me Z, as I expected another down day and then a huge rally on Monday. But, it seems we rallied a day early. I agree with you about Monday, as I expect it to be a big up day.

Don't know about Tuesday, but a flat day seems likely, and then more selling on Wednesday.

zstock, Pro Select!
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

The selling part, hasn't gone away, imo.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Maybe? I don't know yet? I'll have too study the charts over the weekend. Thanks for the USO tip. I agree, it looks like a buy too me too.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

All I see is a lot of bullishness still!

wendel
wendel
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

From what I see…

$NYDNV:$NYUPV is trying to capitulate today, it is now .15
Usually a capitulate day is a value under 2 and with a CPC of >1

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

Money flow down on this last little rally. I don't think it's going anywhere.

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