No Post For Friday Gang. I'll have the weekend post up by late Sunday Night, and I'll do a video too. Go Enjoy The Weekend.
How many bears got wiped out today?
The market rallied up today on NO news at all. Â However, all the technicals did point for a possible breakout, but I sure didn't think it would be so large. Â That means tomorrow will most likely be just a pause day, with little movement in either direction. Â I'd lean more toward a small pullback, as we hit the 200ma on the spx and dow. Â The market rarely pushes through on the first hit of a major trendline.
I believe the target area that the market is trying to go to, is the 1120 spx, and even possibly the 1140 spx. Â Will it get there? Â It's hard to say for sure. Â There are lots of road blocks along the way, that could stop it dead in it's tracks. Â The 1120 area is the gap fill area from May the 20th, and the 1140 area is just under the left shoulder from early January of this year.
So for tomorrow... it's anyone's guess. Â Since it's a Friday, and we are going into a 3 day holiday weekend, I don't expect much volume to be traded. Â That will of course favor the upside. Â But, that doesn't mean the market will have enough energy to pierce through all the overhead resistance. Â That's why I'm just expecting a flat or "pause" day, with not too much action on the up or downside.
This move up today was probably a "C" wave, or a "3"? Â I'm not a Elliottwave expert of course, but just about any trader would probably agree with me on this call. Â So tomorrow is the day to lock in your positions for next week... depending on whether you are bullish, bearish, or just plan on sitting in cash to be safe.
Red
http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/larry-pesa…
The above is very interesting for the Doom and Gloomers. he has a long record of credentials and he says crazy things will start to happen about June 2nd “Beware he says”
Larry Persevento
I listen to Larry Persevento sometimes when he is on Tiger Financial Network. Haven't listened in awhile… I'll check this one out. Thanks.
hope he's right so the bears can experience some good times… 🙂
Well he sure missed yesterdy
Russell 2000 Index takes a new turn in the hourly chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
What are you looking to happen tomorrow? Up, down, or flat?
Breakout stock of the day from NASDAQ – LMNR(limoneira co)
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
SPY Thoughts:
– H&S is panning out – target ~114-115
– Fib retracements 111.17 (38.2) (also 13ema), 113.21 (50), 115.26 (61.8)
– 115.26 = 61.8 fib = left shoulder !!
One thing about Bollinger Bands on the monthly Chart.
We did not hit the upper BB at 1286. If we close below the Middle BB at 986 then the odds are that we hit the LOWER BB, at 739 BEFORE we hit the upper BB again.
Thanks, Ben! I cannot conceive of hitting 986 today, but I'll put the stops in anyway.
Thinking Tuesday will be down, and bottom will be 6/3 or 6/6.
Today we might be sweating.
Apple Inc Buy signal in daily chaRT
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1093-1110. I think the low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. The market has broken above the 1089 high of its recent trading range and this means that a move to 1300 is underway.
1096.50 – 1106.75 range last night (10.25 points, 40% of normal)
1093-1110 estimate for today (17 points)
average actual range last 10 days has been 27.0 points
1103 currently, so estimate is -10 to +7 from here (neutral)
UK market is making an H&S this morning. We should join them at about 1103-5, drop to 1095, then back up to 1103-5 (or not) to end their day, from which we proceed to 114.40 (or not) to make our day.
Every day is like a Chinese menu.
Well i still have a small posittion in TZA and typ. And di not move long as I had to leave the computer for a while.
May ick up some sso on a drop today to get ready for next week. It seems the bulls have some control and that Anna 1140 target is becoming probable.
But mostly cash
I think that the 1150 area will be difficult to clear and expect some type of tail off that area. In addition to the 50 EMA there is also a major gap at the $115 area.
Its possible we get rejected near there…come back down to the neckline…form some positive divergence and then move towards the 1180-90 area and hopefully continue on with a huge burst to get to new higher highs.
Probably not much movement today gang. That 3 day weekend will have many traders leaving early. It's going to be a boring Friday it seems.
Intraday hourly chart of APPLE INC shows the stock testing resistance line.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
Been gone all morning. It's been a pleasant few days (not) but I am still short. My guess is they take this thing up into the close but I will stay short because one really never does know, does one?!
Not much going on today Monica…
I expect just a lot of sideways movement, but no real trend either way. We should go down next week. I'm staying tight too.
Red, I wouldn't be surprised if they ramp it into the close again but I a staying put (literally). I'm not going to watch.
It is ok if you know the worst case scenario. The good thing about buying options is that you can't lose more than what you put in.
You can't always close your eyes and walk straight out of a minefield. 🙂 But if you are riding in a mine resistant armoured car, your chances are better. lol
yes. of course the difficulty with options is that even if you are right, if there is too much sideways movement or the action takes too long to play out, you lose all your capital. There really is no easy solution.
Long term charts are still bearish 10 20 days below 50 and still down.
iam debating on whether to add to my short position s in this weakness??
Tuesday could be another up down Jim, but the week as a whole is very bearish. I seem to buy my positions at the wrong time too, but the trend for next week is still down.
But, I can't advise you on whether you should get a short position today, or take a chance on another up day on Tuesday. It's hard to say, as some really negative news could be realized over the weekend, and trap all the bulls… which means Tuesday would fall hard, giving you no chance to get short.
I do not take opinions as advice and i like listening to any opinions.
I have a hard time seeing a bounce up to 1140 as many have called for w/ these charts but i sue as heck did not see yesterdays other than it was an oversold by in IMO.
i have made my biggest profits in shorts buying into weakness and strength. Of course at some point that works against you.
Market's acting weak either making a bull flag or starting to tank, hard to tell.
I sold a little ETF equity (less than 10%) to make room for puts purchases and to preclude any possibility of a margin call if we go higher today. I hope this wasn't a mistake!
SC, if you are out there, can you tell me where the teal line resistance is now on the 60 min? I tried to figure it out yesterday but I could only chart the 100 weighted MA with 60 minutes on the 10 day chart and I'm not sure that is the right way to do it?!
It's at 110.2 now, Monica.
THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Carl just went Long one unit at 1096.50
I suggest putting a stop at 1089. It will be very bearish if we go below 1090 today.
BTW, are you Carl? The SN is pretty confusing.
Didn't mean to mislead you. Carl is Carl Futia. He has a blog of his own, and posts his trades and his outlook.
You can find him — just Google Carl Futia
Ah, OK. I was curious about your TZA/TNA posts and wondered if that was you.
Read your profile and see you trade TZA/TNA. I've gotten some TZA equity and options, very vibrant right now! Maybe not so much later. 🙂
I'm all cash — the overnight swings these days are too much. Looking for an entry into TNA.
Right now is good is you are a bull, but I am not a bull today. I think we are going to fail 1105, which is why I suggest the stop. It would be a good play.
We may rally to 1140, but I am certainly not a bull after that.
I'm not a bull, I'm a fan of candlesticks, and TNA has the better candlestick formation.
I haven't figured out Carl's plan for stops. I've seen 3 point stops, 5 point stops, and one ugly 19 point stop. But he never says what his safety plan is.
Nasdaq 100 resistance line seems to be strong. Not able to break it till now
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
Are you bullish or bearish into next week? I looked at your post from yesterday, and you seemed bullish.
wonder if he ever responds
I think this week we end pretty much flat from last week.
I think next week we end lower then this week (with up and down moves during the week).
is the funeral over
I think the bear was just exhausted, but regaining strength again today. LOL.
red, did u get email
I got it… thanks.
I was just trying to read it, while drinking some coffee.
Buying more inventory at 1105 but going to take it easy, just wetting the beak.
nice wording- inventory
Stole that from other posters here. 🙂
LOL
🙂
I'm buying ALL pullbacks.
Bought more FAS and SSO.
I think 114 will be a critical area…. however, because we had such a strong move down and everyone will be eyeing that area….I believe we will see higher highs.
There were several large (1 million plus) orders that went through on the spy yesterday in afterhour. They were around the 107 spy level. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't dip down close to that area today on a stop sweeping mission.
Of course if they do, I expect a rebound by the end of the day. But, that might not happen until next week? It's hard to say.
Saw one of those, anyway, and it was on a downtick.
Could have been scooping buys or sells, hard to say. That's a lot of shares.
It should would clear out all the new bulls from yesterday, if they dip down that far today. They cleaned house on the bears… why not clean house on the bulls?
I just thought they would squeeze it into the close to get everyone long for next week. Hmmm. Maybe they take it down and bring it back up to even keeping everyone guessing.
They love to keep us guessing!
Lookit here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=3…
CPCE – means how many calls to how many puts so 1.6 calls for every put – is that right … so people overly bullish ?
LOL put call – so everyone is bearish …
How are you reading this, SC? Could cut either way.
Yes by itself it can mean :
Door # 1 : 2008 replay.
Door #2 : Free ride on Sucka'saurus to the Titanic.
Taking the panic selling + double spike reversal, the evidence point to Door #2.
Take a look at this.
http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/05/d…
That guy is obviously a bull, and he doesn't trade options either. Not my trading style. I'll stick to short term moves and try to play both sides. Right now I'm still a bear until I see a lower low.
His label and opinions mean nothing. It's the data on that chart. I didn't want to just grab his chart. So I linked to his article to give him the credit.
That's cool…
You could have posted both a link to his site, and his chart if you wanted too. I like to promote other people too. After all, it's the least I can do since I borrow their charts all the time.
🙂
I could recreate the damn chart too. But I am lazy. LOL
I could too SC, but I'm like you… lazy. Why bother, when there are so many good chartists out there that don't seem to mind if you borrow their charts.
I always put them on the blogroll and promote them when I can. The Chart Pattern Trader and Cobra are my two favorites. Both very good at what they do.
Lot's of others too, and I have them on my blogroll as well. It's great to look at all the different charts, so you don't miss a trendline or something. It helps you see the big picture.
We may have just tested the neckline of the inv H&S measuring to spy 114 … depending on if we turn from here …
10 min uup looks like a bear flag with the fall from yest – what do others think ?
We are trying to hold on to the neckline. But, the 60 minute chart is losing steam and about to turn back down. Hard too know if this will hold of if people will sell into the close?
I try to buy when the 15min and the 30min crossover together.
Makes good sense wendel… I sell when the 60 and 15 cross.
For a larger picture, the daily has moved off the bottom.
Yes Wendel…
But we need the daily to move up and the market to move down, so a positive divergence will show up. Then the bottom will be in.
I am expecting that to happen in the next several weeks.
A back and forth to set it up.
Fake print to 110.72 when mkt was at 109.8 …
I see that intraday fake print too. I'm sure they will take it there shortly.
Looks like the uup bear flag is trying to break down …
Dow Jones 5 Minutes down ward channel that may break on the upside.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
Carl just sold one unit at 1091.75
What do you guys think? Is the wolf pretending to be limping or is it a real breakdown?
Conveniently stopping on lower TL of rising wedge.
The crowd oohs and aahs.
Like a tightrope walker dropping his pole.
A miraculous recovery: the tightrope walker is now reading a book and brewing a cup of tea while balanced on a chair.
VIX is touching up her lipstick and checking her cleavage.
Like your comments today 🙂 LOL!
LOL. I'm feeling sarcastic today.
The man behind the curtain is bellowing and banging pie pans but I'm on the right side this time. I THINK. You can never be sure until everything's over and you're sitting in cash again.
Not what i expected. Cap vision is showing a hard break down next week.
Yes i am perplexed
That was a pullback from the resistance (a pullback from the first attempt which can usually be expected) and a buy signal.
Permabears will be fighting the market, once again.
The 60 minute chart is rolling over now. I doubt that too many traders will hold their long positions into the 3 day weekend. Gap window is at 108.88 on the spy, and seems like a likely target to be hit today.
Look at this 60 minute chart. Looks like it's going to roll hard into the close today.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
Dow Jones 5 Minutes Chart price back into the channel after some noise
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
I believe it will stay in that channel for the rest of the day, and continue lower into the close.
It will be out of the channel in a hurry if it doesn't close over 1100 by 2:30.
Not that it won't; it's all drama.
Going to set my cell phone for alerts and go cut the grass. 🙂
can we say 107.2095 here we come?! Maybe of course 🙂
In afterhours last night, two large orders went through of over a million shares each. One was about 106.88, and the other was 107.17 spy. Gap fill is at 106.88…
I saw that it said the low was 106.80 but I couldn't find that print (although I did see the 106.88 one). I saw multiple prints at 107.2095.
although dow went up till 10210 levels, it is coming down as you said let's see were it ends
Went long – may God protect those with monkey brains
Pez,
If 108.88 gap window breaks, the markets' next stop is gap fill at 106.88 spy. Put in a tight stop my friend, and good luck.
Bought chinese 2nite from the Red Dragon rest. 🙂
Dow jones one hour chart with ichimoku cloud
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
That's very interesting, San. Thanks for posting.
The acrobat falls, but impossibly reaches out with a slender hand to grasp the wire.
C'mon bears, somebody smack that ***** down!
where is anoopsan's new chart. He has been given a job, and he is slacking. Hurry buddy, we are waiting.
anoopsan's chart, cant live without it
thanks for the interest turbo
yes it was a good call san, even though I am a perma bear 🙂
anoopsan
What is the status after close. Esp. daily chart
Thanks
There was negative divergence in DOW HOUR CHART
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
Interesting that it is still there and check out the volume for yesterday relative to the drops. on the daily Dow it poked above the 10 day but has dropped back and all averages are still down. in fact the 10 day has not even turned
yes jim as long as the price does not cross the recent high or 10250 levels it is negative
This is the perfect setup for the bears next week gang. Very bearish now. Next week should fool a lot of people.
agreed but i would think it best for bears if they run it up until the close.
Yes Monica,
I would like to see a flat or positive close today. That would be ideal for the Bears I believe.
funny, when the market is up my account looks much worse than in looks good when it was down. That shows the complacency in the VIX.
I am glad that first and last 15 minutes of each day will be immune to the new trading regulations. Plunging is best left to professionals.
God bless heroes like Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner, who put it all on the line for us every day.
LOL Rip… Let's give them an award. How about a long rope to tie around their necks, and a chair to stand on with a broken leg.
when will they be enforced and what are they?
June 15th, I believe. Can't waste any time protecting the retail investor!
Well there you go then. The correction will be over by June 15th, and they would put in the safety measure then, while they rally the market back up for a month or two. LOL
but correction will be over june 25th no? And, if they ban short sales, what happens to options? Aren't the underlying contracts based on shorting?
Writing naked options is supposed to be illegal. It is similar to shorting in that you must borrow the stock if you don't own it.
Haven't studied in detail, figure I'll just take it as it comes.
My options aren't naked, only I am! Just kidding!
Anyway, I know they'll find a way to screw me somehow when/if I am in the money 🙂
LOL.
Got to trade while velocity is terminal. The triggers ought to work pretty well, though if you get a chance, manual is better.
Big thing will be to suspend trading when it gets violent, except for beginning and end of day.
Possibly banning short sales unless you own the stock. How cool that works out for the professionals, and protects us, of course.
Are you looking at something specific??
No Jim….
Just a feeling I get by looking at all the charts.
Sometimes i get mesmerized by the short term charts and forget to look at the longer term charts that really have not changed much. All yesterdays bounce did was peak above the 10 day average w/. Barely peaked above down trend line and closed lower than it .
I used that ichimoku cloud on the SPY daily. Resistance at 112.50.
Looks like we're locked in the 1050-1100 area for the near term.
Dow hour chart with ichimoki cloud gave a good trade
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
someone just flushed the …
monkey brain teasers out the window!
LOL
Our financial patriots at work. 😀
Hope you got that stop, Pez.
You can check into after-hours trade if you are stuck.
If we gap down tuesday, there is no god
then there is no g-d.
Actually I take that bad g-d. I didn't mean it!
I believe in God, but I also believe there are dirty human hands all over the stock market. It will go up or down, depending on how the house is stacked.
Historical pattern is it will plunge bad. Look at late 2007 for examples.
We could also rally dramatically, won't know until Tuesday. That's why I'm sweating out my position, because I don't want to miss the drop.
If there is one. 😀
You and I will be fine Rip. Have a good weekend and don't worry about it. Now, I remember that someone said last time they banned short selling, there was a big plunge in the market (since there was no one to run and cover shorts). Maybe that is there intention as the bottom of the market should be June 25th.
There may be a rally Tuesday, or it could dump. If we rally Tuesday, we dump Wednesday.
I will have stops set pretty high, so that only a real rally can take them out. The 'teal line' does get violated by 25 points sometimes.
Yes, the short selling ban worked out badly, except for the foxes. 🙂
have a nice weekend!
Closing price on the russell index… 661.61 LOL
Weekly bullish engulfing in NETAPP INC
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thank you
No Post For Friday Gang. I'll have the weekend post up by late Sunday Night, and I'll do a video too. Go Enjoy The Weekend.