Did Ben Bernanke cause the late day sell off?
(If the video doesn't play, here is a direct link to it on youtube)
I doubt it... but maybe the media will blame something he said in the testimonial today, as the cause of the sell off? Â Who knows what reason they will come up with? Â There are plenty of negative things in the news right now... from the oil disaster that's still going on, to the debt crises that is hiding the closet, just waiting for the right time to get out.
Ultimately though, the sell off was all just simple technical analysis... as when the charts are all pointing down, the market can't do anything else but sell off. Â Tomorrow should be a continuation of today, only without the morning rally part.
Since the continuing claims and initial claims data will be released before the market opens at 8:30 am, I expect that news to be the reason to gap down below the 1040 spx support level. Â The charts tell me that tomorrow should be a down day, and all that's left to make it happen, is somewhere to direct the blame at.
If not the jobs data, then some other reason that might come out overnight or in the morning... will be the blame. Â The talking heads on your favorite TV stations have too have something entertaining to blame the sell on, or else they would be out of a job. Â You don't really think they are going to say that the sell is just based on what the technical indicators are saying, and that NO news event is needed to cause it too happen?
Anyway, I guess we all need entertainment... as technical analysis is a whole lot more boring then the excitement we get from going long on Apple when they beat estimates because of a new gadget... making everyone's life better and your long positions more profitable. Â Or the anger we feel from the disastrous oil spill that BP did, while profiting from our short positions on them too of course.
Speaking of the oil spill, I found this video on Steveo's blog (http://oahutrading.blogspot.com), and thought it deserved too be re-posted. Â I never knew that the same oil spill happened back in 1079, or if I did know... I forgot about it. Â They did the same thing to stop it, as they are doing now. Â Talk about stupid people... this takes the cake!
Red
Dow jones analysis before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thanks Anoospan. My guess is we still have to fill that VIX gap at 29.70 and then it's lights out. They will do whatever they can to wear us bears out!
Thats right they are bulls are trying hard. Have a look at this.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Welll,
They are sure are wearing out the bears, and teasing the bulls. This dance is getting old now.
Make some coffee, creamer and sugar. Then check email
you have mail
I got it…. thanks.
This is going to take some time to read. Can you summarize it briefly for me?
Retest high at end of year
I seen that on the first page… but what are we going to do today and next week? Crash or no crash?
It does not give anything for crash. Until last month, their forecast was 1300 by summer, now it is off the table. now its 1180 in 3mos
At least that is in line with the DIA 118.16 print we have. Now, does the Wilshire print work too… that's the real question.
I read only the first few pages.
Well,
I seriously doubt if they would list a big sell off in that report anyway. They have too remain positive for their sheep.
Looks like gap up on bad news.
the games continue
Yes Jim,
This is getting very tiresome right now.
It is. i notice Ron Walker is still calling for a right shoulder and is placing a lot on the MACD positive divergence.
I have a hard time with all the other indicators not supporting the MACD positive at this time. Could be just the timing as usual.
I think we go sideways for a while and then rally through OPEX. Not sure if i will hold my shorts. my proces are awfully good and I hate chasing down if it continues.
Yes Jim,
I totally understand. This is getting very tiresome, and it's wear me out too. These wild swings are meant to do just that… get every bull and bear out of the market.
We should have already tanked by now, and this delay is killing my position. Of course that's what they want too do. It's looking more and more like they are going to hold it up this week now.
I don't know about the right shoulder being developed or not? Seems too obvious too me. But maybe there are too many bears in the market right now, and that's what is causing the delay?
I still see a lot of bulls out there too, it's just that the sites I visit are bearish… but many others are bullish. Many think that we will go higher to make that right shoulder now, because we held the 1040 support level.
However, we did not make a lower low… only a higher low, as we stopped short of the previous low by a couple of dollar. There must be a lower low, as I've never seen a rally last on negative divergences.
Go look at Cobra's post from last night. Money is still leaving the market, and we still don't have a positive divergence yet.
So, every day for the past week, we have reached the low in overnight futures at some point. Last's night's low was 1052.20 (just like yesterday). So it looks like another day of the same, perhaps. I will be anxious to see what happens when we get the VIX gap fill at 29.70. I may switch my june puts for july puts.
trying to “pinpoint” a crash is nearly impossible. It appears you can only project a window of time, hence the facility of options. I admit I am not good at it. I think this “crash thing” will work by a few days before opx, maybe tomorrow friday.
attilla yest said break well below 1000 s&p
Mole at Evil Spec. sees three scenerios. the bearist is soylent blue BUT
“On the Soylent Blue side we pained one long ass a-b-c which looks better on the Dow IMNSHO. But today’s drop has increased its chances and we will also keep in as a top contender until 1077.74 (not a penny less) has been breached.”
so if we go above 1077.74 soylent blue is out. We now are at 1073. Feel like throwing up. Should have sold on the good claims #, doesn't look good for soylent blue
I believe this suckers rally but boy I wish i was one of those suckers!
LOL Monica…
Yes, even suckers make money for awhile. I guess we are the suckers right now.
yep, still at 30.84 on the vix. need to go down to 29.70
Believe it or not guys it's looking good – we are getting closer to that VIX fill and GS is getting near it's support level of 135 (down today – imagine that)!
Watch the VIX and watch GS.
Shows the weakness of teh analysis.
Not one chart last night pointed to this kind of strength.
Question is is it add time??
Iwill wait till next week I think
This is the perfect example day, as to why technical analysis doesn't always work. We had every chart pointing to a down day today, and we gap up? WTF?
I sure hope this squeezes out all the bears, so we can finally go back down!
I just added 10% to my short positions.
lucky dog – wish I could do the same.
Interesting point about jobs numbers.
Out of 3.2 million college graduates in may over 80% are jobless. But the majority of them do not qualify for unemployment so are not yet counted in the official stats.
Dow jones trying to reverse the trend
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Won't make it. VIX is about to get that gap fill.
That chart now looks like a falling wedge with a breakout to the upside occurring now. I didn't spot that yesterday… bummer.
Odds do favor the breakout failing, and the market reversing back down again… but when is the question?
don't worry red – we are almost at that gap fill and GS looking sick.
Yeah Monica…
This is one HUGE Bear squeeze! It should take out 99% of the bears… with only us die hards left.
Leo falling wedge was spotted on the 6th here it is
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Thanks San…
Looks like you spotted it in plenty of time to get out, but I missed it.
I THINK WE GOT THE VIX GAP FILL!
Look at this 60 minute chart…
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
We have been in this falling channel from the top in April. We just hit the top of the trendline. If it breaks out… we are fracked! If it stays in it, like I believe it will, the bulls will be fracked!
Yep, this and Diablo's are the ones to watch.
My $0.02 is that volume on this morning's rally was not that incredible, nor was the money flow. Volume is higher on the sell-off.
The news is BS. WTF, China isn't affected by the Euro problem. Also, the new unemployment claims didn't go away; the 'unemployed' number is very unreliable and was probably affected by the census workers.
If we can hold our current high, this market is toast.
Pivot point is 1061.9.
The market will get to at least 1052.2 as indicated again by the futures last night. The market is toast, just not sure my account will recover.
I have do or die time..
http://screencast.com/t/YmM5MmIzZT
Yep,
That's the same channel, I have.
me too – the gap was filled on the vix at 29.70. If we go lower than that on the vix, I will have to get out. But I think it's do time!
As soon as we cross 135 on GS (and I believe we will today) , I think the market will come barreling down.
This move up also could be labeled an ABC pattern, and C is completing right now.
F*CK the patterns! We are coming down.
I like that kind of attitude girl! Let's get out the AK47's and go Bull hunting!
I agree. Enough already. Fifty sites with fifty different patterns and then another fifty posters with their patterns or interpretations of patterns. None calling it correctly. We are in a constant state where any single news event can cause a dramatic change in the market at any single point in time. THERE IS NO PREDICTOR of the future. In the market or in life. We are all at the mercy of things beyond our control. Best we can do is roll with the waves and try to capitalize as best we can and try to avoid disaaster as best we can.
I don't even believe in the news Vinyl. Everything is an illusion.
Well it depends on your point of view but like I said controlled by powers beyond your control. Truly a crapshoot. As is life in the final analysis. We all are merely speculators, shooting from the hip and playing the odds. Just when you think you have it figured out you find out you know nothing. When life is rosy and everything is rolling along great that is when something happens to turn it upside down. There is gret truth in highs and lows, Ying's and Yang's, Bulls and Bears, etc. Everything in our existence is a study and experience in opposites (Spring/Fall, Winter/Summer, Day/Night, etc). We are truly just a bunch of insignificant nothings running around in a world that makes no real sense and that we have no true and real understanding of (look up in the sky and night and ask yourself what the heck this is all about). Try to be protective of what you have, be reactive to what you are confronted with and be opportunistic to the chances that can better things for you and yours.
Very true Vinyl. Thanks for the reminder.
Yes VinylMan…
When I look up to the stars I wonder how many of those planets I've lived on in previous lives. They I wonder if I struggled as hard there to survive, as I do here? If only I could remember those past lives, then maybe I could learn something from them…
This is a good example of Tech Anal. vs the fundimentals.
The fundementals cannot be ignored
We have been following the technicals obsessivley. To say “ignore the news” is not right. The technicals wait around for a trigger and it's the fundimental news that does it.
Today the fundimental news was 1) Good news from China 2) jobless claims. The market went up for a few min then down for 15 min or so. When that bear move failed I should have jumped on the rally.
long term still a bear but when I get my 5min renko chart going (ain't got no money) I will leave “them” in the dust
Yes Ben,
TA and the news can produce different results, from each other. I'm just able to cover a small part of the TA's, and the other missing piece's would have probably told me this squeeze was coming today.
But, I'm just one person and I can't see every chart, or every piece of data needed to make it all work perfectly. I sure wish I could, but that's not reality.
fundamentals crundamentals. TA my #$&*&$! It's all horseshit 🙂
This is going to be an exciting day!!!!!!!!!!!!
Red, my attitude is the only thing that gets me through!
I thought you had a baby??
I did! She is sleeping in the swing next to me.
Ben,
The fundemtals a god awful. Employment was not good and did not include millins of college grads that cannot find anything.
Inflation is skyrocketing therefor PE ratios will adjust.
Debt is uncontrolled.
Days like today are sell opportunities for longs that got stuck and buy opportunities for bears. gotta have them
Dow jones faces resistance at 23.6% fibonacci level
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
We are about to crack. I just looked at my account I feel like I am going to crack!
30 year bond auction is at 1;00PM EST. Don't know if that matters.
gs still getting hit.
Check out all the money flowing out of SPY and QQQQ. Block trades down on SPY are ridiculous. This is a sucker's rally. Smart money is using the strength to sell more.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mf…
Thanks IlliniKap,
And thanks for keeping me informed though email too.
VERY COOL! GS is about to crack.
SP 500 has not managed to get out of the channel
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I like it San…
It's been in that channel since the April high. As long as it stays in it, the next move down should be some type of wave 3 inside of another wave 3.
Where is EW guy now?
Red,
Atleast the sequence I am seeing for last 2 months – “things happen when no one expects that to happen”. Today many people are exiting thinking market might tank – so I don't think market will tank, not even tomorrow morning – it might show some more strength – I think tomorrow afternoon when bulls feel very comfortable market will tank and go down to where it was by Monday market close. Unbelievable but this theory is working for last 4 to 5 weeks.. – general observation though..
You could be dead on accurate there Kotla?
Just about all the charts will be overbought by then, and should rollover. We'll see I guess?
you could be right although gs is very close to breaking through 135 and if the market goes down even slightly today we will get through it. we also have the treasury auction at 1est which usually takes place in a down market.
That's right leo and that down move may come any time. on the contrary the possibility of a complete reversal cannot be ruled out of this channel cannot be ruled out as well.
Agreed…
But I think it's going to take some really good news to get outside of it.
yes, i will cover if the vix gets below 29.70
red, remember attila said that if we get above 1085, all bets are off.
Here's and interesting fact that was just posted on Mr. Topsteps' Twitter page…
“Today is the largest gap up on any rollover in history.”
That means there were a TON of bears that just got squeezed out! Let's hope they stay out, so we and tank this puppy.
you know that whenever they show that oil leak on CNBC that they are getting ready to tank the market!
I am 100% short, actually 102% because I wanted a round number of shares and used a soupçon of margin.
Screw Wall Street and Washington. I fart in their general direction.
ha ha!
Well personally I not only see no trend change but further validation. Simplistically we took out the 1200 S&P level on 05/03, the 1100 level, despite the 05/06 crash, still held on a closing basis until 05/20. The 1000 level has now dominated since. We had a single breach to 1103 the week of 05/24 (on a Thursday, high for the week). We had a single breach to 1102 the week of 05/31 (on a Thursday, high for the week) and this week we have yet to breach it and with today, another Thursday, and so far again the high of the week, not only have we not breached 1100 we haven't yet breached 1080. So why all the fear and trepedation suddenly? I feel more encouraged this week than last.
gs just cracked. here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow!
I just seen another fake print to 1055.50 ES… I seen the same print this morning, but it disappeared. It did it again.
and remember the overnight low was at 1052 so we should get there.
Yes… agreed.
The print lasted less then a minute in the morning as was gone. It's gone again now, but it's exactly the same level again.
Dow jones ascending broadening wedge in 5 minutes chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I had noticed that, and to reach the top would take us to about 1095, which I hope doesn't come into play today.
Could happen, but I hope we don't have to go through that.
I am sure 1095 is not going to come today. Unless some good news comes
Good News… Obama resigns, Bernanke and Geithner are arrested, and Goldman Sachs goes bankrupt along with BP! Markets celebrate! Dow 15,000 here we come.
If the first one in that list happens dow will touch 15000 in record time.
something tells me will close at the bottom of that wedge and then gap down tomorrow.
Can there be and shorts left in the market today, after this historic gap up? That leaves the door open for tomorrow to be a “Bearless” day.
Goldman Sachs is tanking hard now Monica… LOL
it's high time red.
Financials, RUT, Q are weaker compared to SPX today
GS is tanking now and that is not a good sign for the broader market.
Once it cracked 135 it meant death to the market.
This market will tank after they have squeezed out all the shorts… and today probably came pretty damn close! If it squeezed enough of them, then we should start a nice move down into tomorrow.
The vix percentages are not supporting this Bull. less than 12% in fact less than 10%..
no conviction.
I would not be surprised to see yesterdays swing all over again.
one thing I find strange is that the treasury auction is at 1:00PMEST. I assumed the market would tank into. Maybe it's not the government who is running this thing after all!
or maybe we tank after it?
Monicadern I was just on Attillas site and responded to you but I may not be registered.;
Attilla said yest on his blog that we are going much below 1000 on the s&p based on Wed's action.
Thank you – I hadn't seen that. I wonder how low is much lower.
The 966 spx level is our target Ben… if we can ever get all the bears out of the market, as that's what's keeping it up right now. When all the shorts are gone… we go down.
Doesn't look like very much volume in the market today. The charts are now starting to looking bullish on the daily. It's not making me feel good about being short.
A gap up tomorrow (on NO news or valid fundamental reason of course) would get the market outside that falling channel and the right shoulder could form, that everyone is looking for.
But, I seen the charts as bearish going into today, so seeing them as bullish for tomorrow may be exactly what I need to see, for it to tank?
Downward Channel on the ES 5 minute chart.
http://content.screencast.com/users/illinikap/f…
I have a feeling the sh$t is about to hit the fan. Treasury auction results announced shortly.
I like your feelings… can we just make that happen? LOL
yest we were told that the jobless claims would be bad and the market would tank. Turns out they were good and the market rallies 25 S&P points
Stock 'Circuit Breakers' Coming Tomorrow
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37616283
LOL… what great timing!
Deepcaster sent me the following but I don't have a subscription. they tend to be correct and do catch big moves but I don't know what and which direction. maybe shouldn't have posted this, just gets people worked up.
or maybe someone knows what they are talking about
Greetings!
We expect our Forecast MEGA Move to launch in the next few Days to very few weeks.
If the MEGA move materializes as Forecast, we expect one Sector to experience an especially Massive Move.
Today, we recommend a Play designed to profit from such a move.
To see this Recommendation, go to http://www.deepcaster.com and click on ‘Alerts Cache’.
Best regards,
Deecpaster
June 10, 2010
Third times a charm? Another 1055.50 es print just showed up and disappeared?
it is really a tough spot to call, on one side, Finalcial, rut & Q are lagging, on the other side, TRIN is at 0.24, and today's high so far only 0.43, virtually no selling
Broke through intraday MAs and headed for 1080 now. Hope it holds!
Funny thing about watching market action today is that it seems like a battle of life and death as far as the averages are concerned, but it's a bunch of low volume BS.
There isn't any money left Rip…
Go read Cobra's post from last night, and look at the bottom 3 charts. The free money from the TARP is gone, and the big boys are selling into this.
Plus, there isn't any mutual fund money to use to buy up the market either? Where is the money going to come from to support another big move up? The thugs aren't going to use their own money to buy the market at these levels.
They want the public's mutual fund money, or the free stimulus money… and without it, the market will fall.
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2010/06/06…
EUR/USD rally has helped Dow Jones and SP 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
By the end of the day today, the market will be very overbought on the short term charts. I just don't see it continuing into tomorrow.
http://screencast.com/t/NjYyYmJmYT
Agreed Diablos…
I want the same thing to happen tomorrow, as did the previous time shown in your chart.
Thanks Diablos. What number would we get to if it fell to the bottom of that channel?
one can dream…
http://screencast.com/t/ODc4YTI0Yz
I love it… great chart!
Thank you Diablos! That would be 966. Staying short.
From BAM Investor's latest Tweet…
“$SPX–We're MAX short here. Model showing sharp sell off followed by what we've been calling for since….”
They better be right! A lot of people have been depending on them
They have lost their credibility but I am staying short.
mole on evil spec. says soylent blue (straight down) is dead.
two other plans, one say 1090, then down, the other say 1030 then down
Well Mole is forever Bearish… much like myself. I'm thinking the same thing, as it looks like a perfect wave 3 of 3 coming next. Let's just hope Mole and I are both right on this one, and our Bearish nature isn't clouding our judgment.
I can't get Bam on twitter or facebook. Is that because I haven't subscribed?
http://twitter.com/baminvestor
Dow jones Ascending broadening wedge updated
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
That pattern is called a “bull flag”, and should it succeed, the move up will be violent, or should it fail, the move down will be just a violent, if not worst.
It is approaching 10150 it may hit this resistance and remain in the range. I may be wrong please remember your stop losses.
If you want to know more about what “TPTB” decided to do over the June 3rd-6th meeting, here is the link…
http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2010/06/10/bilde…
If you want a list of the people in the group, here it is…
http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/meeting_2010_…
It's public knowledge that these people make the decisions the rule the world, but what they are deciding next for the stock market is unknown.
However, considering the fact that money is being sucked out of the market faster then the oil spill sucking machine… I'd say it's not going to be another 2,000 point rally right now. Maybe after a large fall, then I'll believe in a large rally, but not from these levels.