Bernanke To The Rescue…

By Red, on June 9th, 2010

Did Ben Bernanke cause the late day sell off?

(If the video doesn’t play, here is a direct link to it on youtube)

I doubt it… but maybe the media will blame something he said in the testimonial today, as the cause of the sell off? Who knows what reason they will come up with? There are plenty of negative things in the news right now… from the oil disaster that’s still going on, to the debt crises that is hiding the closet, just waiting for the right time to get out.

Ultimately though, the sell off was all just simple technical analysis… as when the charts are all pointing down, the market can’t do anything else but sell off. Tomorrow should be a continuation of today, only without the morning rally part.

Since the continuing claims and initial claims data will be released before the market opens at 8:30 am, I expect that news to be the reason to gap down below the 1040 spx support level. The charts tell me that tomorrow should be a down day, and all that’s left to make it happen, is somewhere to direct the blame at.

If not the jobs data, then some other reason that might come out overnight or in the morning… will be the blame. The talking heads on your favorite TV stations have too have something entertaining to blame the sell on, or else they would be out of a job. You don’t really think they are going to say that the sell is just based on what the technical indicators are saying, and that NO news event is needed to cause it too happen?

Anyway, I guess we all need entertainment… as technical analysis is a whole lot more boring then the excitement we get from going long on Apple when they beat estimates because of a new gadget… making everyone’s life better and your long positions more profitable. Or the anger we feel from the disastrous oil spill that BP did, while profiting from our short positions on them too of course.

Speaking of the oil spill, I found this video on Steveo’s blog (http://oahutrading.blogspot.com), and thought it deserved too be re-posted. I never knew that the same oil spill happened back in 1079, or if I did know… I forgot about it. They did the same thing to stop it, as they are doing now. Talk about stupid people… this takes the cake!

Red

Bear Annihilation...

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow jones analysis before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

monicadern

Thanks Anoospan. My guess is we still have to fill that VIX gap at 29.70 and then it's lights out. They will do whatever they can to wear us bears out!

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Thats right they are bulls are trying hard. Have a look at this.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Welll,

They are sure are wearing out the bears, and teasing the bulls. This dance is getting old now.

Reza

Make some coffee, creamer and sugar. Then check email

you have mail

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I got it…. thanks.

This is going to take some time to read. Can you summarize it briefly for me?

Reza

Retest high at end of year

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I seen that on the first page… but what are we going to do today and next week? Crash or no crash?
Reza

It does not give anything for crash. Until last month, their forecast was 1300 by summer, now it is off the table. now its 1180 in 3mos
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

At least that is in line with the DIA 118.16 print we have. Now, does the Wilshire print work too… that's the real question.
Reza

I read only the first few pages.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well,

I seriously doubt if they would list a big sell off in that report anyway. They have too remain positive for their sheep.

jimhobson

Looks like gap up on bad news.

the games continue

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes Jim,

This is getting very tiresome right now.

jimhobson

It is. i notice Ron Walker is still calling for a right shoulder and is placing a lot on the MACD positive divergence.

I have a hard time with all the other indicators not supporting the MACD positive at this time. Could be just the timing as usual.

I think we go sideways for a while and then rally through OPEX. Not sure if i will hold my shorts. my proces are awfully good and I hate chasing down if it continues.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes Jim,

I totally understand. This is getting very tiresome, and it's wear me out too. These wild swings are meant to do just that… get every bull and bear out of the market.

We should have already tanked by now, and this delay is killing my position. Of course that's what they want too do. It's looking more and more like they are going to hold it up this week now.

I don't know about the right shoulder being developed or not? Seems too obvious too me. But maybe there are too many bears in the market right now, and that's what is causing the delay?

I still see a lot of bulls out there too, it's just that the sites I visit are bearish… but many others are bullish. Many think that we will go higher to make that right shoulder now, because we held the 1040 support level.

However, we did not make a lower low… only a higher low, as we stopped short of the previous low by a couple of dollar. There must be a lower low, as I've never seen a rally last on negative divergences.

Go look at Cobra's post from last night. Money is still leaving the market, and we still don't have a positive divergence yet.

monicadern

So, every day for the past week, we have reached the low in overnight futures at some point. Last's night's low was 1052.20 (just like yesterday). So it looks like another day of the same, perhaps. I will be anxious to see what happens when we get the VIX gap fill at 29.70. I may switch my june puts for july puts.
monicadern

I believe this suckers rally but boy I wish i was one of those suckers!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL Monica…

Yes, even suckers make money for awhile. I guess we are the suckers right now.

monicadern

yep, still at 30.84 on the vix. need to go down to 29.70

bensjoyce

trying to “pinpoint” a crash is nearly impossible. It appears you can only project a window of time, hence the facility of options. I admit I am not good at it. I think this “crash thing” will work by a few days before opx, maybe tomorrow friday.

attilla yest said break well below 1000 s&p

Mole at Evil Spec. sees three scenerios. the bearist is soylent blue BUT
“On the Soylent Blue side we pained one long ass a-b-c which looks better on the Dow IMNSHO. But today’s drop has increased its chances and we will also keep in as a top contender until 1077.74 (not a penny less) has been breached.”

so if we go above 1077.74 soylent blue is out. We now are at 1073. Feel like throwing up. Should have sold on the good claims #, doesn't look good for soylent blue
monicadern

Believe it or not guys it's looking good – we are getting closer to that VIX fill and GS is getting near it's support level of 135 (down today – imagine that)!
jimhobson

Shows the weakness of teh analysis.

Not one chart last night pointed to this kind of strength.

Question is is it add time??

Iwill wait till next week I think
monicadern

Watch the VIX and watch GS.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow jones trying to reverse the trend
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

monicadern

Won't make it. VIX is about to get that gap fill.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That chart now looks like a falling wedge with a breakout to the upside occurring now. I didn't spot that yesterday… bummer.

Odds do favor the breakout failing, and the market reversing back down again… but when is the question?

monicadern

don't worry red – we are almost at that gap fill and GS looking sick.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah Monica…

This is one HUGE Bear squeeze! It should take out 99% of the bears… with only us die hards left.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Leo falling wedge was spotted on the 6th here it is

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks San…

Looks like you spotted it in plenty of time to get out, but I missed it.

jimhobson

Interesting point about jobs numbers.
Out of 3.2 million college graduates in may over 80% are jobless. But the majority of them do not qualify for unemployment so are not yet counted in the official stats.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

This is the perfect example day, as to why technical analysis doesn't always work. We had every chart pointing to a down day today, and we gap up? WTF?

I sure hope this squeezes out all the bears, so we can finally go back down!

jimhobson

I just added 10% to my short positions.

monicadern

lucky dog – wish I could do the same.

monicadern

I THINK WE GOT THE VIX GAP FILL!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Look at this 60 minute chart…

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

We have been in this falling channel from the top in April. We just hit the top of the trendline. If it breaks out… we are fracked! If it stays in it, like I believe it will, the bulls will be fracked!

Rip Van Trader

Yep, this and Diablo's are the ones to watch.

My $0.02 is that volume on this morning's rally was not that incredible, nor was the money flow. Volume is higher on the sell-off.

The news is BS. WTF, China isn't affected by the Euro problem. Also, the new unemployment claims didn't go away; the 'unemployed' number is very unreliable and was probably affected by the census workers.

If we can hold our current high, this market is toast.

Pivot point is 1061.9.

monicadern

The market will get to at least 1052.2 as indicated again by the futures last night. The market is toast, just not sure my account will recover.

Diablos

I have do or die time..

http://screencast.com/t/YmM5MmIzZT

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yep,

That's the same channel, I have.
monicadern

me too – the gap was filled on the vix at 29.70. If we go lower than that on the vix, I will have to get out. But I think it's do time!

monicadern

As soon as we cross 135 on GS (and I believe we will today) , I think the market will come barreling down.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

This move up also could be labeled an ABC pattern, and C is completing right now.

monicadern

F*CK the patterns! We are coming down.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I like that kind of attitude girl! Let's get out the AK47's and go Bull hunting!
VinylMan

I agree. Enough already. Fifty sites with fifty different patterns and then another fifty posters with their patterns or interpretations of patterns. None calling it correctly. We are in a constant state where any single news event can cause a dramatic change in the market at any single point in time. THERE IS NO PREDICTOR of the future. In the market or in life. We are all at the mercy of things beyond our control. Best we can do is roll with the waves and try to capitalize as best we can and try to avoid disaaster as best we can.

monicadern

I don't even believe in the news Vinyl. Everything is an illusion.

VinylMan

Well it depends on your point of view but like I said controlled by powers beyond your control. Truly a crapshoot. As is life in the final analysis. We all are merely speculators, shooting from the hip and playing the odds. Just when you think you have it figured out you find out you know nothing. When life is rosy and everything is rolling along great that is when something happens to turn it upside down. There is gret truth in highs and lows, Ying's and Yang's, Bulls and Bears, etc. Everything in our existence is a study and experience in opposites (Spring/Fall, Winter/Summer, Day/Night, etc). We are truly just a bunch of insignificant nothings running around in a world that makes no real sense and that we have no true and real understanding of (look up in the sky and night and ask yourself what the heck this is all about). Try to be protective of what you have, be reactive to what you are confronted with and be opportunistic to the chances that can better things for you and yours.
monicadern

Very true Vinyl. Thanks for the reminder.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes VinylMan…

When I look up to the stars I wonder how many of those planets I've lived on in previous lives. They I wonder if I struggled as hard there to survive, as I do here? If only I could remember those past lives, then maybe I could learn something from them…

bensjoyce

This is a good example of Tech Anal. vs the fundimentals.

The fundementals cannot be ignored

We have been following the technicals obsessivley. To say “ignore the news” is not right. The technicals wait around for a trigger and it's the fundimental news that does it.

Today the fundimental news was 1) Good news from China 2) jobless claims. The market went up for a few min then down for 15 min or so. When that bear move failed I should have jumped on the rally.

long term still a bear but when I get my 5min renko chart going (ain't got no money) I will leave “them” in the dust

monicadern

fundamentals crundamentals. TA my #$&*&$! It's all horseshit
This is going to be an exciting day!!!!!!!!!!!!
Red, my attitude is the only thing that gets me through!

jimhobson

I thought you had a baby??

monicadern

I did! She is sleeping in the swing next to me.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes Ben,

TA and the news can produce different results, from each other. I'm just able to cover a small part of the TA's, and the other missing piece's would have probably told me this squeeze was coming today.

But, I'm just one person and I can't see every chart, or every piece of data needed to make it all work perfectly. I sure wish I could, but that's not reality.
jimhobson

Ben,

The fundemtals a god awful. Employment was not good and did not include millins of college grads that cannot find anything.

Inflation is skyrocketing therefor PE ratios will adjust.

Debt is uncontrolled.

Days like today are sell opportunities for longs that got stuck and buy opportunities for bears. gotta have them

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow jones faces resistance at 23.6% fibonacci level
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

monicadern

We are about to crack. I just looked at my account I feel like I am going to crack!

monicadern

30 year bond auction is at 1;00PM EST. Don't know if that matters.
monicadern

gs still getting hit.
IlliniKap

Check out all the money flowing out of SPY and QQQQ. Block trades down on SPY are ridiculous. This is a sucker's rally. Smart money is using the strength to sell more.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mf…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks IlliniKap,

And thanks for keeping me informed though email too.
monicadern

VERY COOL! GS is about to crack.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

SP 500 has not managed to get out of the channel
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I like it San…

It's been in that channel since the April high. As long as it stays in it, the next move down should be some type of wave 3 inside of another wave 3.

Where is EW guy now?

kotla

Red,
Atleast the sequence I am seeing for last 2 months – “things happen when no one expects that to happen”. Today many people are exiting thinking market might tank – so I don't think market will tank, not even tomorrow morning – it might show some more strength – I think tomorrow afternoon when bulls feel very comfortable market will tank and go down to where it was by Monday market close. Unbelievable but this theory is working for last 4 to 5 weeks.. – general observation though..

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You could be dead on accurate there Kotla?

Just about all the charts will be overbought by then, and should rollover. We'll see I guess?
monicadern

you could be right although gs is very close to breaking through 135 and if the market goes down even slightly today we will get through it. we also have the treasury auction at 1est which usually takes place in a down market.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

That's right leo and that down move may come any time. on the contrary the possibility of a complete reversal cannot be ruled out of this channel cannot be ruled out as well.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Agreed…

But I think it's going to take some really good news to get outside of it.
monicadern

yes, i will cover if the vix gets below 29.70

monicadern

red, remember attila said that if we get above 1085, all bets are off.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Here's and interesting fact that was just posted on Mr. Topsteps' Twitter page…

“Today is the largest gap up on any rollover in history.”

That means there were a TON of bears that just got squeezed out! Let's hope they stay out, so we and tank this puppy.

monicadern

you know that whenever they show that oil leak on CNBC that they are getting ready to tank the market!

Rip Van Trader

I am 100% short, actually 102% because I wanted a round number of shares and used a soupçon of margin.

Screw Wall Street and Washington. I fart in their general direction.

monicadern

ha ha!

VinylMan

Well personally I not only see no trend change but further validation. Simplistically we took out the 1200 S&P level on 05/03, the 1100 level, despite the 05/06 crash, still held on a closing basis until 05/20. The 1000 level has now dominated since. We had a single breach to 1103 the week of 05/24 (on a Thursday, high for the week). We had a single breach to 1102 the week of 05/31 (on a Thursday, high for the week) and this week we have yet to breach it and with today, another Thursday, and so far again the high of the week, not only have we not breached 1100 we haven't yet breached 1080. So why all the fear and trepedation suddenly? I feel more encouraged this week than last.
monicadern

gs just cracked. here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Wow!

I just seen another fake print to 1055.50 ES… I seen the same print this morning, but it disappeared. It did it again.

monicadern

and remember the overnight low was at 1052 so we should get there.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes… agreed.

The print lasted less then a minute in the morning as was gone. It's gone again now, but it's exactly the same level again.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow jones ascending broadening wedge in 5 minutes chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

monicadern

something tells me will close at the bottom of that wedge and then gap down tomorrow.
Rip Van Trader

I had noticed that, and to reach the top would take us to about 1095, which I hope doesn't come into play today.

Could happen, but I hope we don't have to go through that.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

I am sure 1095 is not going to come today. Unless some good news comes

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Good News… Obama resigns, Bernanke and Geithner are arrested, and Goldman Sachs goes bankrupt along with BP! Markets celebrate! Dow 15,000 here we come.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

If the first one in that list happens dow will touch 15000 in record time.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Can there be and shorts left in the market today, after this historic gap up? That leaves the door open for tomorrow to be a “Bearless” day.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Goldman Sachs is tanking hard now Monica… LOL

monicadern

it's high time red.

cheesgo

Financials, RUT, Q are weaker compared to SPX today

IlliniKap

GS is tanking now and that is not a good sign for the broader market.

monicadern

Once it cracked 135 it meant death to the market.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

This market will tank after they have squeezed out all the shorts… and today probably came pretty damn close! If it squeezed enough of them, then we should start a nice move down into tomorrow.

jimhobson

The vix percentages are not supporting this Bull. less than 12% in fact less than 10%..

no conviction.

I would not be surprised to see yesterdays swing all over again.
monicadern

one thing I find strange is that the treasury auction is at 1:00PMEST. I assumed the market would tank into. Maybe it's not the government who is running this thing after all!

monicadern

or maybe we tank after it?

bensjoyce

Monicadern I was just on Attillas site and responded to you but I may not be registered.;

Attilla said yest on his blog that we are going much below 1000 on the s&p based on Wed's action.

monicadern

Thank you – I hadn't seen that. I wonder how low is much lower.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 966 spx level is our target Ben… if we can ever get all the bears out of the market, as that's what's keeping it up right now. When all the shorts are gone… we go down.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Doesn't look like very much volume in the market today. The charts are now starting to looking bullish on the daily. It's not making me feel good about being short.

A gap up tomorrow (on NO news or valid fundamental reason of course) would get the market outside that falling channel and the right shoulder could form, that everyone is looking for.

But, I seen the charts as bearish going into today, so seeing them as bullish for tomorrow may be exactly what I need to see, for it to tank?
IlliniKap

Downward Channel on the ES 5 minute chart.

http://content.screencast.com/users/illinikap/f…
monicadern

I have a feeling the sh$t is about to hit the fan. Treasury auction results announced shortly.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I like your feelings… can we just make that happen? LOL
bensjoyce

yest we were told that the jobless claims would be bad and the market would tank. Turns out they were good and the market rallies 25 S&P points

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Stock 'Circuit Breakers' Coming Tomorrow

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37616283

LOL… what great timing!
bensjoyce

Deepcaster sent me the following but I don't have a subscription. they tend to be correct and do catch big moves but I don't know what and which direction. maybe shouldn't have posted this, just gets people worked up.

or maybe someone knows what they are talking about

Greetings!

We expect our Forecast MEGA Move to launch in the next few Days to very few weeks.

If the MEGA move materializes as Forecast, we expect one Sector to experience an especially Massive Move.

Today, we recommend a Play designed to profit from such a move.

To see this Recommendation, go to http://www.deepcaster.com and click on ‘Alerts Cache’.

Best regards,

Deecpaster
June 10, 2010
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Third times a charm? Another 1055.50 es print just showed up and disappeared?
cheesgo

it is really a tough spot to call, on one side, Finalcial, rut & Q are lagging, on the other side, TRIN is at 0.24, and today's high so far only 0.43, virtually no selling
Rip Van Trader

Broke through intraday MAs and headed for 1080 now. Hope it holds!

Funny thing about watching market action today is that it seems like a battle of life and death as far as the averages are concerned, but it's a bunch of low volume BS.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

There isn't any money left Rip…

Go read Cobra's post from last night, and look at the bottom 3 charts. The free money from the TARP is gone, and the big boys are selling into this.

Plus, there isn't any mutual fund money to use to buy up the market either? Where is the money going to come from to support another big move up? The thugs aren't going to use their own money to buy the market at these levels.

They want the public's mutual fund money, or the free stimulus money… and without it, the market will fall.

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2010/06/06…

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

EUR/USD rally has helped Dow Jones and SP 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

By the end of the day today, the market will be very overbought on the short term charts. I just don't see it continuing into tomorrow.

Diablos

http://screencast.com/t/NjYyYmJmYT

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Agreed Diablos…

I want the same thing to happen tomorrow, as did the previous time shown in your chart.
monicadern

Thanks Diablos. What number would we get to if it fell to the bottom of that channel?

Diablos

one can dream…

http://screencast.com/t/ODc4YTI0Yz

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I love it… great chart!

monicadern

Thank you Diablos! That would be 966. Staying short.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

From BAM Investor's latest Tweet…

“$SPX–We're MAX short here. Model showing sharp sell off followed by what we've been calling for since….”

bensjoyce

They better be right! A lot of people have been depending on them
monicadern

They have lost their credibility but I am staying short.

bensjoyce

mole on evil spec. says soylent blue (straight down) is dead.

two other plans, one say 1090, then down, the other say 1030 then down

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well Mole is forever Bearish… much like myself. I'm thinking the same thing, as it looks like a perfect wave 3 of 3 coming next. Let's just hope Mole and I are both right on this one, and our Bearish nature isn't clouding our judgment.

bensjoyce

I can't get Bam on twitter or facebook. Is that because I haven't subscribed?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

http://twitter.com/baminvestor

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow jones Ascending broadening wedge updated
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That pattern is called a “bull flag”, and should it succeed, the move up will be violent, or should it fail, the move down will be just a violent, if not worst.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

It is approaching 10150 it may hit this resistance and remain in the range. I may be wrong please remember your stop losses.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If you want to know more about what “TPTB” decided to do over the June 3rd-6th meeting, here is the link…

http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/meeting_2010_…

It's public knowledge that these people make the decisions the rule the world, but what they are deciding next for the stock market is unknown.

However, considering the fact that money is being sucked out of the market faster then the oil spill sucking machine… I'd say it's not going to be another 2,000 point rally right now. Maybe after a large fall, then I'll believe in a large rally, but not from these levels.
monicadern

3 reasons I am staying short. GS can't get a bid, we haven't gone below the VIX gap, and we haven't gotten above 1085 yet (Attila's line in the sand).

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Here's more reasons Moncia… all the short term charts a very overbought right now, and they should all be insync together at the same time by the close… meaning TOPPED!

monicadern

Thank you! Just don't know how I am going to explain it to my husband for another night but I am staying short!

RecnadnuS

For your perusal:

http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…

We are at huge resistance on the 60 min chart. Every Indicator is at its break point. This rarely happens. If it cracks the next stop is a divergence off the last high.

monicadern

Thank you and thank you all for being so helpful.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That chart's a keeper and so is this balloon leaking air… but hurry, it won't be there long.

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

monicadern

Love your cartoons!

jimhobson

Weiss says in cc today test of 2009 is w/ in 1-2yeras due to gov't props

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Jim, did you look at the last post Cobra did? Where is the money going to come from? Look at the last 3 images on the post…

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2010/06/06…

jimhobson

I did see those charts.

I am not saying I agree with Weiss other than this administration will do whatever to look better than they are.

Like today. Why in the world would anyone go long after the last months charts?
Yet someone is buying albeit money is not pouring in.

monicadern

Do you guys think we go to 1085 and then BAM!?
jimhobson

Short squeeze on low volume???

they are going to run this hard on weak news.
monicadern

Well we are here now. Now, i get nervous.
monicadern

red, you have mail.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Opps, you have made a mistake. Must use new one…

monicadern

i did! hmmm.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's free to setup a new one… not gmail

monicadern

got it!

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

sp 500 trying to come out of the channel first signs of a reversal
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
newbear

Red, I share your pain.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's crash or die time Newbear… Tomorrow I'll be celebrating, or someone will be shoveling dirt on my casket.

newbear

We could have to wait till Monday for a good drop.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah… that's what I'm afraid of NewBear. My puts will lose so much in time decay over the weekend, that a 1000 point drop would help me breakeven… What a bunch of bullshit this is!

monicadern

we could switch fgor july's right now?
monicadern

meant to write switch to

monicadern

think it will be tomorrow but i have been saying that a lot lately. tomorrow could be another pause day but we can not go higher

monicadern

me to times 10

RecnadnuS

Here is the five minute version of what I just posted.

See the divergence setting up. We will know by days end.

This looks like low volume fluff although I did get nervous when Cramer turned bearish the other day.

RecnadnuS

http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

GS selling off should be a good indicator of what's too come… hopefully starting tomorrow.
monicadern

thank you. just hope the big down is tomorrow.
RecnadnuS

Do not know about a big down. It is impossible to predict. All you can do is follow the money.
bensjoyce

What do you mean by this statement? ???

Remember, the key to TA is to use the indicators 180 degrees out of whack with how they were intended.

bensjoyce

Doll manages 350 Billion

S+P 500 Going Back to 1250: It's a Great Time to Buy Stocks, Bob Doll Says

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/sp-500-goi…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

“chief equity strategist for fundamental equities at BlackRock”… enough said!
bensjoyce

He said he would change his mind if “deflation took over”

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow jones range breaks out

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
RecnadnuS

Let me leave you with an update on the five min.

I trade off the 60 but it looks like its turning.

Remember, the key to TA is to use the indicators 180 degrees out of whack with how they were intended.

It took me YEARs to figure that out!!!

http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…
RecnadnuS

Do not know about a big down. It is impossible to predict. All you can do is follow the money.
bensjoyce

What do you mean by this statement? ???

Remember, the key to TA is to use the indicators 180 degrees out of whack with how they were intended.
bensjoyce

This is what Atilla said 20hrs ago after the late day drop yest Wed.

“It appears to be todays intraday bounce affected the intermediate term structure,
SPX 1000 area will not hold anymore, the first low will come from much lower levels

this level will be clear as we proceed”
(Edited by author 20 hours ago)

bensjoyce

people are wondering…..”Where's Atilla”

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looking at the 60 minute chart right now, we have form a MA pattern with today's high.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

It's a very bearish pattern, and should start to form the right side of the “A” tomorrow.

RecnadnuS

Looks that way! Anything can and will happen in the short term.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If there is any good news to report today… it's that all the bears are now out of the market! Let the bulls decide where to take it tomorrow….

kotla

Guys,
I just added some (10%) July SPY puts, just going by the vol.. pretty pathetic (i don't see anyone buying this rally) and lot of indicators pointing down. Will add more if it spikes up tomorrow. Going by all the comments and historical observation of last 2 months SPX should be around 1040-1050 by Monday, hopefully by tomorrow.

bensjoyce

What do you mean?

“right side of the A tomorrow”???

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'll explain it on better on tonight post, but basically the move from the first low of 1040 (May 25th?), to the first 1100 high (May 30th?) is the left side of the “M”.

Then, the move down from the 1100 high to the 1070 low was the middle of the “M”, and then back up to 1110 again, and finally down to 1040 (June 9th?) formed the right side of the “M”.

The move up from 1040 to today's high formed the left side of the “A”, and we are now looking for the right side of the “A” to form next… but it's usually twice as long as one of the sides of the “M”… meaning about 80-100 points down from here.

monicadern

Oh that was fun. If it is any consolation, last time they put the financial short sale rule into play, the market crashed. Tomorrow they will start to implement the breaker rule but only in some stocks.

tgarfield

stocks ripped first then crashed later.

Diablos

My last hope…it didn't cross.
http://screencast.com/t/N2VhZTkwNj

bensjoyce

what didn't cross. ??? 20dma is about 1089.50

Diablos

the light blue lines are fibonacci arcs. has shown me when it breaks, correction over.

heres is current dia :: http://screencast.com/t/YTcxNWRj

bensjoyce

supurb Diablos, these are Fibinacci arcs and ?Gann fans or (but) Fibinnacci didn't have fans or did he?
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

These are great charts Diablos…perfect for evaluating risks. Thanks for posting!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

My last hope too Diablos… LOL
monicadern

i love you diablos : ) let's see what tomorrow brings.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Pzy5t0

Red, I know the gulf has us all concerned. Sorcha Faal hits it on the mark sometimes and her remarks are consistent with some other blogs I have read. Of, course everything on the internet is true! lol
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1379.htm

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Pzy5t0,

Too many “blue pill” takers to believe the real truth about what we really are. They won't believe anything on that website, although much of it is true. They are still trapped in the matrix unfortunately.

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

Red,
I shorted NFLX, 118.7. I can't figure out my stop, because I want to short some more at 122. ( 122.26 is a 3% stop) So, accumulating puts. Retail numbers FRI, NFLX Tank, possible.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Hey Z…

Painful day for bears… that's for sure. I think we could tag the 1093.56 EMA level on the SPX, before we tank… which will likely be put off until next week. So, you might get your 122 NFLX level tagged tomorrow… if you're lucky.

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

Yesterday, I had a few signals predicting today might be a huge rally day. For Friday's action, I don't have a clue!
Either it's gap up. or down a smidge. or both. VIX over 25, says Volatility rules each day.

bensjoyce

by the way 1089.blah blah (decimal) is the 20dma for the Bollinger Bands

the latest fro Atilla …….drum roll……..millions (i hope not, were supposed to be a small exlusive enlightened club)

Thursday, June 10, 2010
The ending will be worse as they delay
I can not describe how messed up the market will look when this is over.

This delay only broadens the overall pattern which will extend the sell off and the magnitude of the eventual selling climax. In other words, the market is spending more time in the lower range, congesting, accumulating more selling power.

Todays gap up has invalidated Flux signal, we had to gap down instead. This is an extremely rare situation which is another sign for what we are going to see in near future. I expect another signal in a week or so.

After todays rally, it appears to be SPX=920-940 area should be the first low, followed by a rally to 1050 that should lead to the second low around SPX=870.

I am short from 1210, and pyramided up at 1160 and 1100 areas.

The best is yet to come.

Mudolabudovo

Congrats for shorting right on the top. In your case I would take my profit now and reestablish new short positions later. We may see new highs very soon.

bensjoyce

Attila say “another signal in a week or so” Maybe that means that my option put for opx june is blown out. oh well.

Presevento was wrong, Atillas signal was wrong, Bam is wrong and most everyone we listen to……….

cheesgo

it seems like that he lost the signal for this big quick dive , but still feels that we are going to see some weakness in the coming days
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's exactly what they want Ben… for all the people calling a crash to be wrong. Now everyone is expecting 1100 or better to form the right shoulder.

Guess what? They want them to be wrong too… Tomorrow will most likely be a pause day, but next week will only have Bulls in the market, as the bears are now extinct.

I really don't think they will allow the bulls to escape either… but we will see next week I guess.

monicadern

I guess we should all stop listening to other people. It's not doing us much good. Unfortunately, there are no answers.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Timing a big sell off is hard Monica, and since we don't have the luxury of time on our side, we should trade in an out more in the future. For now, we are both stuck in a short position that's underwater now.

But, I think we will see dry land next week, and probably some high mountains too. I'm hanging in there, as I firmly believe we will fall hard next week.

kotla

Bens,
I am not sure when you have got these puts, if it not well out-of-money you can just hang in there or rollover to July or Aug puts – Though it is pretty rough the bearish trend is still alive. Broad picture of the world didn't change much – we still have european crisis, war threats, volatility is high n techincals are completely broken on many charts. The first 10% of correction was pretty quick, but the later 10 or 20 or 30 or %%… correction is going to take some good time and sharp snapbacks… — patience pays…

Bensjoyce

Bought the 990 June put e mini s&p for 3.00
traded up to 10.00 now back down to 1.45
why sell the 10 when “the crash” was just dead ahead.
been looking at Jaywiz and he appears to vaguely be correct but wierd system to say the least.

Retail sales and consumer confidence out tomorrow. With all that oil floating around who wants to go shopping and feel consumer confidence.
These two numbers, I think will be bad, but numbers releases really don't cause crashes. these number will come out bad and everyone on this site will be yelling “crash” then the s&p will bottom, turn around and rally breaking the middle BB now at about 1085 and probably visit the top BB next week.
Crash longer term. Nenner says Nasdaq “tops” thurs June 17.
Some are calling for a down friday next week.

(I think)
I'm going to sell my put when the s&p is down 15 pts or so and buy a call or two expecting 1120 next week early

monicadern

Bens – go back and look at what happened between sept 18 and oct 27th 2008. Volatile swings daily but ultimately much lower. You have to expect that. that's why leverage is so difficult. Switch your puts for ones further out but stay away from calls.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

SP 500 Anaylis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Nice charts…

Thanks San.

bensjoyce

What we have to realize is profitable trading is NOT catching a crash but a day to day grind that is conisistant. I'm going to do this with a 5 min renko chart someday soon and I'll let you all know what my performance is.
Bensjoyce

A Really big IF

If retail sales is REALLY bad +.2 expected and it comes out -.5 AND U Mich. cons. confid. comes out 4 pts lower or so then expected then maybe the S&P can crash tomorrow. But Don't expect such rarities. It will probably come out sort of bad so the S&P only makes a huge drop ?20pt to support around 1064 and then rallies.
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