Did The Bulls Lose Their Jobs Too?

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Unemployment is tough for the bulls it seems…

Today sold off again, for the 4th day in a row. Will it ever end, or has the bottom been found now? I’m not sure, as every chart I look at still seems bearish, with the exception of the 60 minute chart. Well, it’s only half bullish, as the histogram bars are rising up from oversold territory, and should cross the zero mark tomorrow.

But, the MACD still has turned back up on it, so it’s also a little bearish too. I think I’ve been waiting for so long for this moment to happen, that I don’t believe it’s actually here. I keep looking for a big short squeeze rally, to wipe out the bears again… but it hasn’t happened yet?

Maybe they are now torturing the bulls, by not letting them out of their longs? I don’t know, but I still have to stay that I expect more selling tomorrow too. Yes, it will be 5 days in a row, and a relief rally (aka… short squeeze, as in “relief for the bulls”) is overdue now.

However, the trend is now down… at least the short term trend. Longer term is yet unknown? Have we finally finished the Primary Wave 2 up, and are now in P3 down? I don’t know yet, but I do believe that if we continue down tomorrow, there won’t be any right shoulder around 1150 forming.

It’s too obvious now, as everyone sees it. So, I’m going with the charts… and they say we have more downside coming tomorrow. No big long post here, as I believe everyone can read the charts as well as I can by now. I can’t think of any reason to rally tomorrow, as I don’t think there is any major “market moving” news out… and the technicals are still point down.

So, just hang in there bears, as I believe another large leg down is coming. Keep in mind that Newbear posted that RationalNational (Rati) seen another fake print of 100.72 spy while in Anna’s chatroom. I have the same print, but I captured it on June the 4th. Should we tank hard tomorrow… I’d be looking for that print to be hit. There’s a reason it was put out on June the 4th, and again today… and that’s because they plan to go there soon.

Best of luck to us all gang...

Red

2432 COMMENTS

  1. watch out $cpci is way down. this is the smart money I'm told and it means the big money (who is correct) the puts are low compared to the calls see stock charts.

    this very low reading is correlated with market rallies

    but I can't tell if (maybe) it can wait a couple of days

    on jaywizz, jay says gap down tomorrow

    rrman say gap up ????

  2. in addition:

    Jim Carolan is bearish till June 29 +or-
    Persverento is calling for a huge correction June 28 (we'll see)

    How bout me??? Don't listen to me

      • In reply to a comment made in your last post, Anthony Allyn is well-armed from the Yahoo SKF board. I noticed he has quite a following from his public chart lists at stockcharts. He disappeared there for a while after March 2009 when he was still bearish. I was wondering where he posted these days. So he has a blog. I always enjoyed his style. He also had a knack for riling Kenny.

      • I also mentioned if SPX down 4 days in a row then there’re more than 70% chances a green day the next day. The chart below shows all the recent cases when SPX down 4 days in a row this is from cobra

  3. I don't know what to think about the VIX print that IlliniKap posted, as it's clearly “Way Too High” to ever play out. Possibly, they actually made a real mistake, when posting a fake print? LOL

    It could simply have the decimal in the wrong place? Maybe it's not 349.72, but instead 34.972… which could easily hit tomorrow, should we tank really hard.

    Anyway, just food for thought. Here's a repost of the print… (Thanks for catching it IlliniKap)

    http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010

    • Since you think 349.72 is “way too high” to ever play out, what odds would you give me if we were to bet on it? 😉

      • LOL Raised…

        The odds I would give you, if the VIX ever reached 349.72, is a 100% that I would be leaving the country or hiding out with many weapons at my side.

        I don't think we would ever be that high, even if the Dow was swing up and down a 1000 points a day. Maybe 5000 points would cause that kind of spike in the VIX… which would mean that America would be an extremely dangerous place to live.

  4. If the market was going to bounce they would have done it by now. final GDP's out and it was a little weaker than expected. s&p dropped a few points.

    Now at 9:55 U mich sent. With all the unemp. & that shit floating in the Gulf, people will be bummed out. Jawizz preliminary says drop at 10am perhaps hod.

    Quadruple bottoms are too rare. if we head down to 1040 then we go lower and quickly (allow me to stick my neck out). Lower BB at 1044 – that would be a quadr. bottom so blow that one off. We can't even bounce to the previous days low!! at 1080 nor the middle BB 20dma!!

    It appears to be toast. Atilla days 1015 The 38.(whatever) retracement is 1008. And I bet by EOMonth we hit 990 the middle monthly BB. Then maybe Wed, then we see the monster rally.

    • Tough call today Ben. I'm really not sure what's going to happen? We are getting close to a big short squeeze day, I believe. But it doesn't have too be today, as we have seen days times that have had more 6,7, and even 8 down days in a row. However, if today doesn't fall big again, then I'd be expecting Monday to be a short squeeze day.

      The ideal thing to happen is to fall hard today, and let all the smart bears out, and trap the dumb bears into going short over the weekend. Then let it rally up Monday, at which time we would just wait to reassess it again, as look for another short entry.

  5. FTSE is rallying this morning, but its intraday chart looks like crap, negative divergences out the kazoo.

  6. Why would anyone be buying this POS market right now. Surprise, surprise, Q1 GDP keeps getting revised down. Shocking….not

  7. You want to see any ugly chart, check out Ford (F). If the 200 SMA doesn't hold, watch out below!

  8. Divergence on TRIN this whole move up. Price going up and so it TRIN. We should head lower soon.

  9. We are banging on that 1071 level again… I wonder if we will get the rally to 1080 or not? It's looking pretty weak now. The dollar is holding it's ground too, and not selling off again like yesterday.

    San, do have a chart of the euro/dollar?

  10. jawizz sees big rally monday tues

    “Next weeks power index will show a huge uptick for Mon & Tuesday
    and concurs with an energy boost.”

    • It is small to mid caps that have a big stake in the economic recovery, aka the Emperor's new suit.

      During a bear it should underperform SPX.

      I hope so, anyhow. I have a lot of eggs in that basket.

  11. I'd close out my shorts and go long. We are not going to break 1070 plus we are getting huge divergence with the RUT being positive

  12. Well gang,

    Today is “the big day”, as far as that Wilshire fake print goes. I only guessed at what I thought might happen on the day, and I guessed wrong. I thought it was going to be a high (DIA 118.16), but it might end up being a low?

    I do see a rally coming next week, so I will be closing out my short today. I may even go long a small position? Who knows? It depends on how low we go today. But regardless, I won't be short over the weekend.

  13. If it wasn't for the BS strength in financials, we would probably be down big right now. I never understood the mindset of “let's buy something now because we know a bill will pass even thought its bad for the underlying stock I'm buying”

        • wait a second – wouldn't 100.72 be somewhere in the high 900s? Around the same level I mentioned?

          • I think so Monica. It's hard to say, because they don't away match up. When we hit 1065 spx on the flash crash, the spy hit 105.00. That was not normal, as usually the spy is a little higher then the spx.

            Meaning, if the spx hit 1065 that day, the spy should have been 106.50 to 107.00, or if the spy was at 105.00, then the spx should have been 1040-1050 area. It's usually lower, but I don't know how to sync them up correctly.

            I'm only guessing about them being in-sync at a 100.72 spy low. Of course we could easily pierce that level, and go on down to a point lower, that will match up with the low 900's on the spx… hard to say?

  14. I just don't buy today's move down. Especially with relative strength in the financials and RUT relative to the other indices. Plus tons of positive divergence in STOCH, RSI and MACD on 60 and 30 min charts.

    I will def. be buying the close or a retest of the days low.

    • I'm watching the real-time SPY chart on the NASDAQ website.

      Downside volume looks strong and, when it's all said and done, that's usually where it's @.

      These are times that try men's souls.

    • I agree with you that we are in for a giant bounce. The question is is it now, or is it EOD.

    • Yes, I agree with you… the market should rally soon. But, would you go long at these levels… on a Friday? I wouldn't, that's too dangerous. If a big sell off happens today, then yes.

      But I believe that most professional traders aren't willing to go long over a weekend, until the market drops lower again.

      • Red I would go long. We've continued to build positive divergences since Wed. I would stay short, but the NYMO isn't off most of the time. It turned up on June 8th even though we made a lower low and we rallied from there. I might night trust MACD or RSI as much, but I think the NYMO divergence is much more reliable and today's the first today it is also diverging.

  15. Closed out my SDS and TZA calls. Still holding a couple of KBH puts. Waiting for a pullback to -800 or so on the TICK to go long. Take a look at the TICK guys, another divergence. Price is making lower lows today, but intraday TICK hasn't even gotten close to its intraday lows from yesterday.

  16. I don't know if we are going to get the sell off today, or not gang. It isn't looking very bearish right now. Plus, we are going in the light volume lunch time period too.

    Are they going to rally into the close, or sell off? Hard to say, but it's a little scary right now.

    • Red telltale signs of a sort of rally are there. You know something positive is going to come out of the G20 that will cause the Euro to rally starting sunday evening and in turn will cause equities to rally. That combined with all the divergences and lack of conviction to the downside today makes me doubt a large sell-off anytime soon.

  17. Financial regulation is almost complete as lawmakers put the final touches on a new bill in the next few days. The financial stocks have been worried about this bill and have sold off accordingly in the last few months. As this saga is now coming to a close, the financial stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are all starting to rally. Why when the bill is just about to be put into play are they rallying? Stocks much like the stock market and people are much more fearful of the unknown, rather than the known. Knowing exactly what these companies will have to now deal with gives investors, fund managers and traders an idea about future profitability and growth. They now have the facts on the table and can make an education decision. The unknown is always scarier than the known and in this situation, it proves correct. The financial sector is up today.

  18. Closed all my shorts, now just waiting for an hourly close above 1077 on SPX before going long. Those of you short, are fighting the short-term trend reversal, which only results in pain. Better to take profits and sit on the sidelines for the next short entry.

    • I'm in cash but dont know yet which way this goes…look at spy on daily…on 5/13..14..17..18 four down days similar to this week and it stopped on the 200sma…then next day it looks like today and many thought held up by the 200 only to blast through it…I think I will wait till Monday to see what happens unless we drop down in the close…tough call here…

  19. Love it. GDP revised down and absolutely no reason to rally, but we do. Time for the deadcat bounce. Target range of 1100 to 1107. Past 1107, and expect a full rally back to possibly 1131.

  20. I said 1080 for rally today we got 1079.50 hold on cause we have worked off many lower indicators (good for the bears and bearesses)

  21. Closing below the Daily 20 SMAs and Weekly 50 SMAs will be key. We're selling off the 20 SMA on Dow, NQ100 and RUT. SPX hasn't come close to it today.

    SPX is below its 50 Week SMA and Dow is sitting right on top of it

  22. Again I ask, how many re-dos do the bulls get?

    You can tell that they're friggin' Keynesian socialists.

  23. Watch the qqqqs. They are close to going negative while other averages are holding up better. I don't like the strong breadth but I just remembered after visiting another site that Russell is being rebalanced today and that is causing the strong breadth and $rut is the strongest index.

  24. The RUT being rebalanced today, could be what is leading to all the divergences in NYMO, TICK, etc.

  25. Everyone keep your eyes open between 4pm and 4:15pm as this should tell us the direction for Monday. If Goldman is buying or selling… that's what I want to know.

    • Look at the volume on the QQQQ's all in the last 10 minutes. They need at least that much time to dump and run!

          • I'm guess you are still short, and today closing positive was needed to reset the “consecutive down days in a row” pattern, allowing for Monday to go down as well.

            I think a lot of people are bullish right now, as I see many looking for a big bounce up on Monday and Tuesday. What are your thoughts?

          • Hi Red!

            As was stated by someone else, may the Eggman, I do not believe one can predict the future. But who knows?

            My long term thought is that we go down until the Naz touched the flash low as stated earlier.

            Do not know if we will bounce first. That will not be hard as all they have to do is poke AAPL and it will fall. This antenna issue may be what they need. The fools on CNBC are claiming its the software. We both know better than that!

            FWIW, and this is not a prediction, I do not buy into the H&S theory. If true, then that small bump is the RS and it is a non-congruent pattern.

          • Yes, I agree. It more then qualifies to be the right shoulder. Everyone is looking for a RS around 1150, and I don't see that possible.

            While we could go up some on Monday, possible to 1090-1100, but I don't see it lasting more then one day. Let's also remember where we close at today… 1076.76, and what a little birdy told that a weekly close below 1079, would cause the trading service offered by people at Bloomberg, to inform their 18,000 subscribers to go short.

            That should add some selling pressure on Monday, should many of the listen to the advice and start selling. Any rally up should be short lived, IMHO…

    • NASDAQ real time quotes was late showing that. What kind of data feed do you have? TD Ameritrade? I have it but need to figure out the charts and tools. Old dog here.

    • Yeah I was thinking the same thing but DRV was even worse. WHat good is a dropping market if you can't fully capitalize? ANy other good ideas out there?

  26. Well they closed the SP below 1079 on the weekly. Now lets see them create a self fulfilling prophecy. Are things getting dumped afterhours. I don't see anything going on at CME……..

  27. Interesting day. Weekly close a big engulfing red candle, not a lot of conviction among the buyers, it seemed.

    Still plenty of things to mind if you are short. Today, to my mind, it was the dollar. The dollar made a swing low on Monday which it came close to violating today, with confirming price action in some of the key commods (i.e., energy and metals).

    If that swing low is taken out, the reaction in equities might be to the upside.

    Stay safe. Avoid holding OTM front-month options. 😉

    • Rosa,

      I think a lot of people are now expecting a rally on Monday and Tuesday. While I won't say it not going to happen, I will say that I don't believe we will go up and put in a right shoulder around 1150.

      I think the 1131 high was the right shoulder, and now all we are going to get is a lower higher. Anything is possible of course, but I'm not convinced that Monday will be another 200-300 point gap up rally. Maybe half that, if the G20 summit spins some good news over the weekend?

          • Right here in Toronto and my stinking office is in the walled security zone, the police have temporary unlimited powers. I was watching the news and now they can arrest anyone for just standing near the fence which happened last night. There is a massive protest crowd(biggest this city has ever seen) headed there right now and the police are getting ready.

          • The G20 members are mostly the same as the members in the Bilderberg group… which is made up of Illuminati people. So yeah, the crooks don't like it when the sheep get upset… and that's why they have to send their pit bulls on them.

            I don't know what is going to happen next week, but I really don't see much of a rally on the usual bullish Monday. In fact, I think it would catch a lot of people off guard if it gapped down instead of up.

            Is the G20 on Saturday, Sunday, or both days?

          • Well the cost of security alone is estimated at a Billion $ already our tax money at work. The G8 met up north of the city, saw 5 of Obama's helicopters flying up there so you can't tell which one he's on.

            The G20 starts tomorrow to Sunday.

            Well it would be interesting if we don't get a relief rally and just plunge.

        • Same here when the Winter Olympic was held…mostly were thugs and people had too much time. The only problem I have with the whole G20 thing is the cost of security and I don't see the benefit of hosting one in our backyard. Well, I guess somebody have to do it….LOL.

          • Just don't go around bad mouthing BP, the government, Obombus, Goldman Sachs or any other crook and you'll be fine. Just tell them all you are a happy sheep that watches Jerry Springer, Dr. Phil, and Opera all day… while eating fatty foods and drinking beer. They'll love you. LOL

          • Well tomorrow they are expecting a few thousand protesters and they've boarded up all the windows in the area. Stores even have security in front so it seems they are expecting something big.

      • I don't know if a big rally is widely expected. Certainly this week's action was anything but bullish, and folks might reflexively expect a relief rally. A gap-and-go for 300 points on Monday would certainly surprise me, but the market surprises me all the time.

        All we can do if we want to trade the technicals is mind the market signals (further muddied today by Russell rebalancing … have a gander at some of the index volumes by EOD).

        My current interest is mostly the PMs, so I was pretty happy with today and intrigued by the dollar action. I put on a small short hedge near the close on principle. If I had a big equity position, long or short, I would have covered or hedged at least a bit of it. But that's just me.

  28. G20 about to end, the PM of UK is speaking live for the closing remarks. He said that Both he and Obama agree that a strong BP is beneficial to everyone. Obama also stated that the “stimulus” will continue so the the games will persist.

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