Wednesday, April 17, 2024

More Selling Tomorrow…

What a wonderful day today was... if you're a bear?

I certainly enjoyed it... and I don't think it's over yet.  I see more selling tomorrow morning, as late comer's panic and sell at the open tomorrow.  Now whether we close down, or do a hard reversal like February the 5th, 2010... is anyone's guess?

I'm looking for a minimum target of the 100.72 spy print to be hit.  We could continue lower on the momentum, and hit the low 900's spx area.  I certainly believe we will hit that area, but I'm not sure if it will be tomorrow or not?  We all know how they like to play games to shake out the bulls and bears... but my gut tells me they will hit it tomorrow and then reverse back up.

The prints aren't always a price target, sometimes they are just the direction of the next major move.  Either way, a move down to the 1000 spx general area is likely now.  Look at this daily chart... it looks horrible now, at least for the bulls.  The MACD's have crossed over, and are now heading down.  The histogram bars just put in their first bar below the zero line.  The ADX line is rising fast, with the negative DI line on top.

The 60 minute is buried on the histogram bars, but with the negative DI line still on top, with a rising ADX line... and a MACD still pointing lower, they can put in even deeper bars before turning back up.  This chart shows no sign of rising yet.

The 15 minute chart is rolling back down now, after becoming overbought the last couple of hours of the day.  It should roll in the morning session, and provide us the gap down needed to get the market moving in the right direction.

Overall, the charts are looking about as bearish as I've seen in a long time.  That daily looks really bad, while the weekly is rising up on the histogram bars, the market is still moving lower.  Some of the charts got the death cross today (when the 50ma crosses down over the 200ma), while others will soon follow.

We should be headed down for several months now, with anymore rallies only putting in lower highs (from the April 1220 spx high).  I may just sit out the rallies, and simply wait to go short again?  Who knows?  I just like being a bear better then a bull... so waiting in cash is ok with me.

That's about it, let's all keep our eye's and ear's open for any important information that might come our way (ie... fake prints, large buy orders at a certain level, etc...)

Red

Red
Author: Red

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rippy41
rippy41
13 years ago

thanks for the post . . . If we close up, do you expect a strong rally? if so, what is the time frame? days? weeks? As per your feb analogy, after the bottoms, we ran up relentlessly for over 2 months. I suspect that is not what you are thinking . . .

what is your short term forecast? I also think we see a reversal soon, but any reversal will likely be short lived. This kind of distribution is unreal

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  rippy41

Yeah… this time is different as we are now below a lot of the moving averages now, where we wasn't back in February. So, I don't know how high we go back up, but I did get an intraday fake print today. It's showing 1070.50 spx.

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

I also have one from June 23rd showing 112.41 spy…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010

That one could be the target for opx, and the 1070.50 spx could be for the end of this week… or even tomorrow? Hard to say when, but I think we are going to rally for awhile (choppy though), before another large move down happens (assuming we gap down tomorrow, and then rally into the close?)

Reza
Reza
13 years ago

I think tomorrow will bottom out and close around 1050 area for monthly close.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

The 200ma on the monthly chart is at 1048.39 spx, so I do expect it to close around that level tomorrow.

rippy41
rippy41
13 years ago

great thanks! I think the 112 is out there but stranger things have happened! I am quite convinced we see 1070 print late thursday and that feels like a great short entry with the jobs number on Friday . . . that is the script I am following . . . thanks again for your work!

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago
Reply to  rippy41

Hi Rippy, I think CVX is priced too low.

anoopsan
13 years ago

The effect of hidden negative divergence in EUR/USD pair
http://chartsofbreakoutstocks.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Wow San…

The euro looks ready to dump hard in the chart. It's almost at the zero level on the histograms, and will soon cross into negative territory. Not good for the spx, and overall market if that dumps hard on the euro tomorrow.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

1.2110 is the last hope for euro if that breaks surely going back to the recent lows

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Do you have a target area for the spx tomorrow?

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Leo daily chart it is trading below 50 day and 200 day moving average. In weekly chart below 50 week moving average. A bear market and in such a scenario if it decides to fall these support numbers just don't work.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

I think June gloom has another 2 weeks, so I'll short DOW 10,000, on this micro bounce.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

QQQQ hit my 43 go long target this morning, so I went long. Dow futures up 28…

anoopsan
13 years ago

EUR/USD hour chart showing euros reversal attempt
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Hidden Diveregences have been falling like flies in this market!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

eggman, is that you?!? Nice swing in futures.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

“US private employers added a paltry 13,000 jobs in June, compared to a revised gain of 57,000 in May, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Thursday”.

LOL… like we didn't it's getting worst not better. The futures gave up all their overnight gains on that news. Good news for the bears…

P.S. Good Morning Gang….

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Still expecting a bear trap sometime today?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Hackswell

Not looking as likely now. We will probably NOT repeat February the 5th, but instead simply close down again.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

red, I don't think we can have 8 lower closes than opens. I haven't seen it happen.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Check your email…

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thank you. YGM!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

You also read Cobra's post. Here is a chart showing what happens on the 8th day (for the QQQQ) after 7 down days in a row.

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TCqmRJ4h_EI/A

As you can see, the market rarely stops on the 7th down day, and reverses hard.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Good Morning Anna

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Great post Anna.

As much as i try to stick to rules I stray at times and it is usually costly.

reminders are always helpful.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

You thought she was talking about you Jim? LOL… I know she was talking about me… I'm the worst for staying in too long. But, I'm sure we aren't the only one's who make bad choices.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

She's talking about me. 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

LOL… let's all argue over who's the biggest dummy.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Get in line!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I know i resemble the post target.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It took it as a general reminder that may apply to many.LOL

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Good Morning Anna

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

Hey, Red and gang, trying to get some work done so not chatting, but just wanted to wish good luck to all!

I'm looking for a lower low either today or tomorrow, targeting 1007-1020. After that, a trip to the 12 or 20 dma which should fail and put us in serious bear mode. I think NYMO has to come down and flag a low (as well as put-call ratios) before it will go up.

For fellow RUT and TZA fans, I think next drop will pay off very well because RUT was hung up on its 200dma and fell off yesterday, will catch up with SPX 6 month trend very quickly.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

That's fine Rip… get your work done. We'll be here. The market doesn't go away, and I don't plan on going anywhere either. Good luck to you too.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Probably no one cares if I post or not; I declared a school day for self-discipline.

Guess what? I haven't got any. 🙂 Raking money is a LOT more amusing!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Sure we care Rip…

We're all just a bunch of amateurs trying to make an extra buck or too. I'm seldom right on my calls anyway, so you can't be any worst then I am at trading.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

They are desperately trying to make the futures bounce carry w/ tech attempting a lead.

buy the bounce.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I think that was a head fake to squeeze out the bears.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

There may be more of that. Staying put. I just love how they manipulate the VIX to kill options players.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Just remember, odds are the bears favor that we close lower again today. Down trends rarely break on the 7th day.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

got it.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Positive divergence in S&P 500 could lead to a minor pull back
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Here is so good news for the bears. The dollar (UUP) has almost gap filled from yesterday (which should give it good support for a bounce), and the market hasn't really moved up that much.

Once the dollar fills the gap, and then rallies later on, the market should fall back down.

Anna
13 years ago

Watch for a rally 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

When Anna? What makes you think so?

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

you're kidding right?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anna,

Maybe I'm blind on this one, but I just don't see the rally coming? The dollar is falling (now at gap fill), and the market is barely moving up. In fact, the market is going down with the dollar. What am I missing?

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Dan read your charts kiddo!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anna, I think it might be at the end of the day but you are almost always right!

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Hey Monica I am just reading the charts 🙂 looks like maybe 11:30 we see the move up
it's actually a better case for the bears as we need to retrace 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I know. Thanks Anna.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

How much do you think?

I was thinking a little one to pick up the stops, maybe 1050 or so.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

1052 Rip 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

gracias

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

A rally is a distinct possibility only because we can not continue the rate of descent. It will be short lived. At least that is what my penny tells me when it is flipped. LOL

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Thanks Eggman 🙂

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Its true!
I am the eggman!
They are the eggmen!
I am the walrus.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

I'm good!

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yes, yes you are. Although I was not trying to be mysterious. Disquis locked up and I could not get to take my name so I changed it to what was playing on the “musak” in the background.

We all have a style of writting, dont we….

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Wave 3 resuming??? PLEASE SAY IT IS! I don't want to fill that VIX gap.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I know, leverage kills.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

The only waving I do is to say bye bye to my grandkids!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

You are that old?! Well, you have been around this rodeo for a while so I guess it makes sense!

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Guess you are not as good as you thought. 😉

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Not at trading, that is for sure!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Yes, I'm lousy at math but I am good at figuring other things out!

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago

… and the arch-enemy of Sonic the Hedgehog! 😉

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  Hackswell

LOL. Either you have kids or are a pup!!!

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago

I was in HS when the original came out. AND I have a 7yo son who loves Sonic. 😉

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  Hackswell

Yeah, they need to bring him back. Mario seems to be timeless.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

seems like only grandpas and the unemployed take to trading 🙂

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL! You mean gambling cause thats what this is. Dont let anyone tell you otherwise!!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Unfortunately, I completely agree!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Somehow the house always makes money.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Big sell order came in. See if it sticks.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

muchisimas gracias.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Going out on a limb here that you are like Bruce….

T'zog Ga-sint

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Now you lost me! Oil getting hit.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Its Yiddish. I picked it up growing up in Michigan. Bruce Dern and his daughter are Jewish.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

My ex-son in law is jewish. I am a 100% Poslish Catholic but I think that is why the conspiracy crap bothers me so much.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
13 years ago

The book of Revelation has the Red Dragon of the Apocolypse (athiestic communism) and the Black Beast (Freemasonry). This is our time whose entire stage is a conspiracy against Catholicism.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Closed right in it. WOW. We need to push below.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

So I am like a psychopath actor?!! I had never heard of him although his last name is very familiar. I don't know that yiddish term even though you guessed right that i am a hebe.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

I think Tony might be right on today:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 Triangle in 15 minutes chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, maybe we are going to 1052 today? It sure doesn't want to sell off anymore today.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Triangle breaks on the upside.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

anoopsan
13 years ago

Inverse head and shoulders in S&P 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago

Bounced of Max Contain as someone once said.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Is that bear friendly or not?! Bouncing is not good.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Do not think we will know for another hour. Does your software plot VWAP? That is all it is per a previous poster. I have read much of the older posts and checked it out. Lot of good laughs.

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Happy times those were!

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

seems to be looking good now kc.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Breaking News:
Moody's: Possible Downgrade of Spain Due to Deteriorating Growth Prospects (Story Developing)

http://www.cnbc.com

Ut Oh… Not good for the bulls. LOL.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

If this is a bounce day its got pucker factor

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

LOL

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

WMT chart. WMT near 48 today.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/w

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

IWM, has support at 60.5 this week. My short term charts favor up, though.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Not sure what you are looking at for short term. I see next level at $58 range

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Hi Jim,
I'll keep the $58 in mind, that's for certain.

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago

Break down below 1040 again. W00t!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Next stop 950 on spx folks.

Hackswell
Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Unless the bulls can bring it back up to the line in the sand. Those bulls are wily creatures! 😉 Or at least the PPT are….

anoopsan
13 years ago

Apple inc trading close to an important trend line.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 Trading range breaks on the down side
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Not looking bullish.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

Anyone else having issues with TOS? It's been such a big POS lately. Damn Ameritrade

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

What is TOS?

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago

Monica,

Look at the Orange Line. I was running an errand. When we talked see how it bounced?

Does not always work this way but it did today!

http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders

monicadern
monicadern
13 years ago

Yes thank you!

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

See, like i told you….you are just as good as anyone else; reference this mornings prediction of a rally. Nobody knows the future.

I will say it again, if you are right 30% of the time, you are a Hall of Famer!

P.S. Red you nailed it, so we were oversold. Now we are more oversold!!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, I got the sell off right, but I did get them out of order. I thought we would sell off first and rally into the close, but we rallied first, and then sold off.

Ol' well… at least we sold off.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

That is right!!! You are getting much better at this game, if my opinion is worth anything. Just because we are down X days in a row does not make it more or less likely that we will not be down x+1.

I used to follow Jim Rodgers before he became famous, in the days when he made Soros a $$$. He used PandF charts coupled with a firm understanding of the fundamentals.

Kcandthesunshineband
Kcandthesunshineband
13 years ago

So where has the PPT been during this drop. Are they out of money or juicing up the printing presses?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We are at that point now, that we need a positive closing day to reset the oversold multiple days down issue. One big short squeeze, then more selling. It could be coming very soon now… maybe tomorrow or Friday?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Totally agree, Red. I think the neckline break will be a fake and we will rally to 1070 or so.

If you look over old charts, there are a lot of times that H&S patterns don't play out. I think this one will after we have a mini-rally.

I covered a bit today, want to study charts to decide whether to load up on next intraday bounce (to cover at a better price tomorrow) or to stay part cash for a two day rally.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

The jobs data is easy for the government to fake, so if they want a relief rally, then those numbers will be good… and a rally into the 4th of July weekend will happen.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Agree, I think the re-shorting starts back again, DOW near 10,000

anoopsan
13 years ago

Death cross is nearby for S&P 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

You mean Friday, tomorrow is Thursday. We still trade on this Friday, so thats' the end of the week.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Friday

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

CVX, option market was closing out puts and switching to calls today.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Who is CVX?

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

CVX is my losing trade….LOSER!!! Trying to find reasons to hold on to this Sinking Oil tanker! The Captain's drunk…Looks like the Regulations debate, is taking its toll on CVX too!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Oh… ok. I thought is was some group of traders or something that was going long, while everyone else is going short. One more move down I believe, and then a rally.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Jim posted earlier, IWM 58…At this point, anything is possible. I'm keeping all of my shorts.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago

Red, did you see Atilla's new post : http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/06/50-200-dma-cro

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Exactly what I'm thinking too Newbear… Remember, I got an intraday fake print on Monday of 1070.50 spx… which is where I expect this Friday to close at (assuming the government manipulates the jobs data as usually).

Then I have a daily fake print of 112.41 spy… which could be the next high before another drop? Hard too say, but a rally is near… I can feel it now. I'm out of all shorts now, and will wait to reload again later.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

A lot of people I know who don't trade the markets are getting bearish so that's a sign.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

We are real close to a bottom now. That 100.72 spy print at minimum should be hit… more likely though, is that we pierce 1000 spx, and go to 990-995 area.

That would have every bear in the world going short. Then a big squeeze back up to that 1070.50 spx fake print for starters. Then possibly the other fake print of 112.41 spy? Not sure on that one but a squeeze into opx could go that high?

Hard to say, but at least the 1070.50 print should be hit… after another move down first of course.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red,
The first of the month is usually an up day. When it's not…
LOOK out BELOW!!!!!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I agree, but that doesn't mean we couldn't sell off hard in the morning, and rally back into the close tomorrow… just like February the 5th did.

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