Did The Bears Get Fired Today?

By Red, on July 20th, 2010

Didn’t Obama say we’re creating more jobs?

Hmmm… If so, then they must all be bull jobs and not bear jobs as the market rallied hard today, although the crooked banks still can’t seem to make a profit… even with FREE Money! Man, if they ever do make a profit, the market will be at 12,000 Dow in no time!

LOL… I’m just venting as usual, and laughing at how controlled the market really is. It has nothing to do with the real world, but instead trades off the charts only… and only uses the news to have something to blame the rally or sell off on. I said yesterday that we could rally back up to 1080-1085 area, and we did.

Are we done yet? I’m not sure, as I don’t know if the print I got of 109.79 spy is real (or Memorex… LOL)? If it’s a real Casper, then that should be our final high tomorrow before resuming the journey back down. It’s best explained in video, as we have two possibilities now… one UP and one Down.

The upside targets are 109.79 spy, and 112.41 spy (which I believe the first one will be hit tomorrow, but the higher one might not be hit for awhile. I’m still bearish right now, and only bullish for another day or so). The downside target is Dow 8300… when? If we start falling back down this week, then within 2-4 weeks would be I estimate.

Red

Bernanke Speaks And The Markets Sell Off...

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

$TNX was down 1% today, which I consider non-confirmation of the big rip up. I got out of my long position after banking some gains. UUP was also up on the day.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Agreed…

Lot's of people turning bullish here Dread, and I'm not one of them. While we could still go up to the 109.79 spy print (maybe, as I'm not sure if it's a real FP or not?), but that's about as high as I can see it right now.

I have another upside print of 112.41 spy, and if this really was an ABC move up (from the 1010 low to the 1100 high as wave “A”), then it's possible that we finished wave “B” down this morning and we're starting wave “C” up now.

But that overhead resistance from the falling channel has been impossible to get over. Tomorrow it will be in the 1085 area, and it's going to take a gap up to get over it.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

I just don't see it yet? Does it seem to you that everyone is now bullish? It sure does too me.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I do see a lot of bullish comments, but there are still a lot of bears out there with stops at 1100.

How we open seems to depend on whatever big bank is releasing (bad) results, and how we close the AH sessions seems to depend on whatever tech company is releasing (good) results.

I'm trading very short term this week, using support and resistance lines, afraid to keep anything overnight bull or bear.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's a smart idea, as during this light volume summer period, they can push the market in either direction. With a prints to the upside and downside, I'm not convent either way.

Geccko23

Everyone on the planet seems to be bullish at the moment. I don't even feel like posting anywhere. Today was wave 2. We could chop around for a couple of days putting in more 1-2 waves. There was an extreme tick reading today, the highest I have seen going by stock charts. The last highest one was May 17, a similar day to today as it opened and dropped lower and went on to rally into the next day early. Today's white candle was greater than the candle from May 17. One can follow that fractal (following May 17) or the one from the April high. The Apple news has had very little followthrough in after hours. E-mini SP has backed off from the initial thrust on the Apple news and QQQQs look like they got to the ghost print target in after-hours. One can still see the ghostprints on the 60 min and 15min qqqq charts at stockcharts. Go to the Chart Pattern Traders public charts to see.

Geccko23

Actually I went over to Danerics earlier in the day and couldn't get through 1/3 of the posts because it seemed like everyone was bullish and had given up the bearish scenario. Neelyites think the market is going to rally a lot higher in wave e of an expanding triangle. Nenner and TTheory dude are calling for a big rally into August and they are both kept financial intellectuals in my opininion.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Where do you have the print on the QQQQ's at? I don't see it? Can you post it, or email it too me and I'll post it.

Geccko23

I thought you had already exposed that print. Cobra showed it last night over at her/his site. It's over at Walker's public charts in his qqqq charts. It shows a print up to 45.54
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No, I missed that one… did you get a screen shot of it? I have the spy print of 109.79… which could be about the same level.
Geccko23

Actually, the chart is shown on Cobra's Sunday night post. The print goes to slightly above 45.6
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I found it again… thanks. I remember reading the post on Sunday and found it cool that Cobra is noticing the prints too. LOL.

I think it will match up perfectly with the 109.79 spy print, as it will also fill the gap from Thursdays' close to Fridays' open. Looks like the perfect spot to get short.

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TEKh_SaSmDI/A…

jimhobson

You are going to get the gap up IMO

i am close to getting stopped out but am not looking long at this point either.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yep… I'd say we are going to 109.79 spy for sure.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

WHR chart,
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/20…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm caught not knowing which way the overall market will go at this point? So, choosing individual stocks to trade is a wise idea. But, that stock looks like it trades too similar to the market.

I'd rather trade one that isn't as affected by the moves of the s&p and dow.

http://rosabarba.livejournal.com Rosabarba

Most stocks have some correlation to the broad indexes. Some intriguing longs that might be worth a dip-buying evaluation: Ags (MON, MOS), Steels (see what X did today), solars (TSL, FSLR).

Something to think about, anyway.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, when market is unclear on the direction, it's time to look at individual stocks. Thanks for those, I'll have to check them out.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

Today, qualified as an unclear day, Dow Down 100, then finishes up 75.
At least I broke even on some old longs today.

Sir Woody Hackswell

If you like Agriculture, I've seen POT, MOS touted as strong buys. (Chris Mayer pick from Agora Financial).

Considering the rise in commodities, Sugar and Wheat would also probably do you well. Livestock, too. (The most beaten down and waiting for a rebound)

BAL iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN
JJG iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN
SGG iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN
COW iPath DJ-UBS Livestock TR Sub-Idx ETN
DBA – PowerShares DB Agriculture (overall)

DYODD. YMMV. RTFM. ROTFL.

This is not investment advice.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Where do you have the print on the QQQQ's at? I don't see it? Can you post it, or email it too me and I'll post it.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Where do you have the print on the QQQQ's at? I don't see it? Can you post it, or email it too me and I'll post it.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Interesting statistic from Cobra's blog…

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TEZOwGeLEZI/A…
Sjack123456

Tis is not advise, unless you want to know how to turn 55k into 17k in less than a month; thats what I have done staying short this market. However, with Goog coming into ebooks and Amzn trading at 121 I am going to hold short through the earnings announcment on Thursday. I think this one should get killed no matter what the market does==mayby I just pray it does… laughing at myself

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I know the feeling my friend. I've lost quite a bit too. I wish you the best of luck. The charts tell me that we should sell off later today and tomorrow, so maybe it will all work out fine.

Sjack123456

I hope it does, but even if I get killed, its ok; I thought the market would go up yesterday, gut feeling, but my gut also thinks by Aug expiration I will be in the money. People have no credit cards or refinancing to spend, so reality will come home, I believe

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http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Gang,

Anna told me that she has a 106.89 print. I missed that one, but I believe we will go to 109.79 first, and then the 106.89 print.
jimhobson

On the 5 minute chart gap up and gap fill in 1/2 hour.

I have no clue whats next .
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

DOW JONES futures hourly chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I think it will gap up out of that triangle San. But after it gaps up, I think it will fall back down lower. I see lot's of false breakouts on triangles. A gap out of it to hit the FP of 109.79 spy, and then sell off the rest of the day would be my best guess.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

If dow starts trading below the 50 hour SMA it will be problems for the bulls. the longer it takes to go above the resistance line the more bearish it gets.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The market is still banging on that falling resistance trendline from the April high. We've been this falling channel the entire time. A breakout would be bullish, but I don't see it happening right now.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

FP back to 108.50 spy…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

What time does Benny Boy speak? I'm sure that's what everyone is waiting on.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We should rally up to that FP of 109.79 after 2pm, as that's when Bernanke speaks. That's what the market is waiting on right now. I do expect it to sell back off afterward though.

Sir Woody Hackswell

sell off… after they realize what he REALLY said.

When Obama, Timmy, or Bernanke speak in public, the markets usually go down.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, I agree… but I'm still looking for that pop higher first, and then a sell off.

jimhobson

The bulls are trying to get out of the pen.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We knew they would… just how high can they go? I say they stop before 110.

jimhobson

Did he start talking??

Sir Woody Hackswell

Must have…. it's going down steeply
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Something spoked the market…

Sir Woody Hackswell

O Bernanke! How much hast thou lost thy…. muchness!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Sell off now or pop higher and then sell off… that is the question?

Sir Woody Hackswell

My head hurts. Don't ask that again. As long as it gets lower lows and lower highs, my portfolio will make FRN$.

Reza

Uncle Ben decided to keep the $ logo
Sir Woody Hackswell

Quoting someone from another forum:

* Fed Chairman Bernanke says the Fed is prepared to take more plolicy actions as needed
* Fed Chairman Bernanke' says economic outlook remains unusually uncertain
* Exceptionally low rates for extended period

same'ol same'ol

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well the market didn't like what he said, from the looks of it.

jimhobson

Holy bear! glad I did not sell.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I think this is the start of a nice move down Jim (at least for today and tomorrow)

Sir Woody Hackswell

Blaming it on Greece again….
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The VIX sure did shoot up again…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The charts point to a big down day tomorrow. Go Bears!
jimhobson

Bernie 's way of saying the economy is really screwed up.
jimhobson

A close around 1068 would be much better for the bears

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, this looks bearish too me… but you never know about them? They could pull a rabbit out of a hat tomorrow and it could rally back up? I don't think it will, but stranger things have happened.

jimhobson

This has been a strange week. pretty hard to read a chart when there are no indicatros that can predict such a reaction.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, right now the 15, 60, and daily are bearish… so that should be some comfort to you.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We just hit that FP that Anna caught (106.89 spy).
Geccko23

I just saw a regular quote a few minutes ago. SP 1066.88 -16.6,.
The QQQQ ghost print at 45.63 was hit this morning and exceeded by a slight amount.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Lots of 6's… LOL

Geccko23

Just saw spy at 106.69.

jimhobson

All set up. look at this swing back up.
jimhobson

The charts between 5 and 15 minute show completely different average position. % minute are all aligned while 15 minute still has 10 and 20 period s well above the 50 period..

i sit that slow to catch up on such a dramatic move
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Some how I just can't see a move back up to 109.79 anytime soon. The larger time frame charts are rolling back down now, and won't turn back up for awhile.

It's possible that print was just a late fill, as hitting it would put the market outside the falling channel that it's been since the April high. I'm not sure how it's going to break out of it, without some seriously good news.
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

LONG SNDK 44.36
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

LONG AAPL 256

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Are those day trades, or are you expecting a multi-day rally?

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

SNDK is so undervalued, I can't even describe it, and AAPL island top is in it's first day.
I'm solely an individual stock picker, one at a time.
If I can spot a short term exit, 3 to 7 days out, greater then my entry, that's my accumulate signal.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

MO short 21.75 GTC, missed by 5 cents, didn't activate, MO is down 45cent
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Hmmm….

Do you think they will close it at 106.66 spy again today?
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

BRCM short, missed this one at 37, down a buck, now
Gere64

Hey Red,

I finally found my password, so I am back as Gere64. Another Beatles reference. I am nothing if not consistent.

Anyway, I want to man up here and formally state that if I ever was a non-believer regarding FP's I want to apologize.

I am a user of Stockcharts and they never show up BUT I did notice them on the Q's as I see you or Cobra did as well. They never vanished and are still there. That makes me think. Stockcharts is anal about their data. I know this from years back. Anyway, todays action is just jaw dropping.

I am having a hard time believing that this has gone on for so long. So I can only conclude that real FPs are intermixed with fake FPs.

Anyhow, wanted to pat you on the back. You called yesterdays ramp as well.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Glad to see you back (as a real person). And YES, I believe they mix in fake Casper's with real Casper's. I'm still not sure about the 109.87 print (which matches Cobra's Q's print), as the market traded at those levels the day before… meaning it could have been a late fill?

I don't see us going back up there anytime soon, as the daily and 60 minute charts are now rolling over. I think we will sell off some more tomorrow too.

Gere64

Agreed!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

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