Wow! What A Rally!

2253
1221

It's Over Now... The Bears Are All Done!

Rally, Rally, Rally... Go Bulls!  Of course you know I'm joking now, as I'm a bear by nature.  And today certainly put a hurting on the bears.  It took me totally by surprise, as the charts looked very bearish yesterday.  That goes to show you that just as soon as you think you've figured it out... they change the game plan.

I honestly have no clue about tomorrow, but I'd expect a "pause" day, as that's what usually follows a big move up (or down).  Since we have now clearly broken outside the falling channel from the April high, I'd say we are going up next week too.

We still have a 112.41 spy print too be filled, and if this rally is going to continue, we'll be there in no time flat.  Just layoff some more people, cut back on earnings forecasts, talk bad about the economy... and we'll rally to the sky.  LOL.  But serious, is this the most screwed up market you have ever seen?  Nothing about today was bullish... absolutely NOTHING!

It was 100% manipulated to squeeze out the shorts... and boy did it ever work!  And shorts left now are broke, and homeless.  I hope all you bear survived it!

Ok, on to tomorrow...

The gap up and sideway trading is a major bull flag.  So, if it plays out, we should open and go higher tomorrow too.  Personally though, I think we will pull back a little, to retest the falling trendline around 1080 area now.  Then a bounce from there to start the next move up should occur.

This all assumes that "they" want to rally the market up higher, and aren't just tricking the bulls right now.  The charts could be read either way, so I can see lot's of bullishness in them and still find some bearishness too.  Basically, if the market doesn't confirm tomorrow, and sells off further then the 1080 backtest area (putting in back inside the channel), then we are still in "whipsaw" alley.

However, it's looking more and more like a new up trend should start now.  With all the bearish news out there, and we still rally on it... that has too tell you that we're not likely going back down anytime soon.

But, they did leave a gap around that 1070 level that will need too be filled... eventually!  Not that it's any comfort for the short term bears, but if you hold long enough we will revisit that gap and fill it.

Well, that's about all the bad news I can stand for today (at least for the bears), so I'll close in saying that I really don't know what tomorrow will bring...

Red

2253 COMMENTS

  1. AMZN, will probably take down all retail stocks.
    That in turn, should turn the market into a down day.
    Thank goodness, I went short, MO,QCOM,HCP,BRCM,FFIV, end of day.

      • I think we continue to ramp until the Eurobank stress test results are released (sometime around noon tomorrow). After that? Sell the news? Popped stops rally into the close as everyone recognizes we've broken a trendline and bails on their shorts? I really have no idea.

        There are a number of stops at 1100 SPX. I thought we would hit them today. Maybe tomorrow?

      • SPY is up slightly in AH, so there goes that theory, about AMZN dragging down Retail, or AH is lagging, or AMZN is a buy now, I'm kind of lost too!

    • Maybe. Remember that there are some big earnings before the bell tomorrow, too. If Ford does well, I think it might blunt a lot of selling.

      Also, the European bank stress tests will be released after the European markets are closed (6pm brussels time), so I expect a lot of shorts to be closed in anticipation of that. I know the whole exercise is bogus, but I'm trying to trade what I see in front of me.

      Once the Eurobank news is out of the way, we could sell off. I really have no idea what price levels we'll be at.

    • Looks like AMZN is going to close green today — what a manipulation – they missed earnings – AH y'day went to $100.. now trading at $117.00 around 17% move up on crappy earnings..

      • This whole market is manipulated and controlled. Just no way to see big moves like this in the charts. They plan it that way of course. They don't want everyone to be able to see it coming ahead of time, and actually make a profit! It's all about deception and robbery… of us little guys of course.

    • Thanks for the link. It certainly is looking more and more bullish every day now. When bad news causes huge rallies like today, what can bring the market down?

      He has a lot of good points in the video, with the large bull flag and the inverted head and shoulders pattern. I don't know if we will break out to the upside tomorrow or not, but next week is looking like a rally is coming.

  2. SNDK, ( follow up) beat st, by 22%, I'm buying / adding to the dip.
    The CEO announced he was quitting. (turkey *^#4%, move if you ask me) $39 low won't last long

  3. Loaded bunch of SPY puts ~1090 range… Will double it at around 1105-1110 (if we can make it – lots of stops there so they may move their joystick)… Overall it looks bearish… I won't go net long below 1130 but throwing some hedge could be good idea.

    Today should sell off hard…

      • Because we are supposedly still in a technical bull market, it would make sense to stage one last bull rally and fail it. I just don't have the stomach for buying stocks based on BB's promise to run the printing press forever. I'm staying basically short until the bull is confirmed.

        Show me the fake money, Ben!

        • Rip,

          Just remember that I have 2 more upside casper's that will eventually get filled. One a 112.41 spy, and the highest one a 118.16 dia. So a B.S. rally could still happen… when is the question I can't answer?

          • Seeing as how the market is 100% BS, I am open to ideas!

            I am still hoping for a lower low before we go up, maybe 980. Playing it carefully, though.

  4. Looking for opinions-got crushed recently, but I got AMZN 110 puts for Aug. Should we fill the gap and go to 97, or do you think get out and play another day. I have never been great at reading charts, any ideas???

      • then you can understand why I am frozen like the polar bear !! I am looking at the vix, it will not break, if it does I will have to give the bulls credit, and get out for now; I will not go long.

    • The charts are hard to read. My view is that they showed negative divergences most of this week and that we ought to go down again.

      The acid test for me is closing two days over the 50dma before I take my whipping, and then two weeks over the 50wma before I am a bull. I am having trouble being a bull with the economy on its ass and the only reason to invest being runaway inflation:

      http://www.bullandbearwise.com/IndexHistoryChar

  5. Well guys…

    If it makes you feel any better, I'm pretty sure this is another casper

    http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010

    I looked in the premarket yesterday, and the afterhours too. I couldn't find any candle that closed/hit a high/or hit a low at 107.12 on the spy. Meaning… should we start selling today, that's our target. If not today, then maybe Monday or some other time next week.

      • Red, I've been in so many big office buildings where entire floors are empty. It's even kind of eerie. Rally on.

        • The market is heavily manipulated Newbear, that the real world just doesn't matter. They simply don't care about how many people are hurting right now.

          They only care about stealing the little guys money… and the only way to do that is to rally up when everyone is still bearish. Distract them on the media, with bearish news while they secretly are buying at the bottom.

  6. I know little about the stock market, but real estate is in real trouble. Bought 9 houses so far; here the sick part, bid on a house for 60k the bank said no, needed 77k. House went to auction and I bought it for 24k; was told the tarp funds kick in the other 53k to make the bank whole. If they took my offer at 60k, they would realize a 17k loss, so by selling at auction they lost nothing, who do you think will pay the 53k loss…..

  7. Citigroup (C) Shares Are Set to Underperform As U.S. Treasury Puts the “Stock For Sale” Sign Up Again

    From April 26 through July 1, when Treasury sold 2.6 billion shares of Citigroup, the stock sold off 18 percent.

    When they were selling, Treasury sold on average about 53 million shares per day, or 7% of the average daily volume.

    http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Citi

  8. Fairly obvious. They are manipulating the indices to make sure they close above the Weekly 50 SMA. For the S&P, thats 1097. Surprise, Surprise, we just popped a couple points above it. RSI on the weekly is just about to break 50 and Slow Stoch are also cracking 30. Weekly chart is about to shift to the bulls.

    • These after hour mini trades, always get tested eventually, 60%-70% of the time. I think ( my own conspiracy theory ) they are GS signals to other GS employees, in this case,telling them, get ready to short just before the sloppy looking one month rounded bottom fills.

  9. Well gang, have good weekend. No post for tonight (I hate talking about the bulls). I have the weekend post up by Sunday night. But just to keep it simple, I'd say we go hit the FP of 112.41 spy next for sure.

    Red

    • Red, I'm sorry but I have to ask: What sort of trading edge can someone really derive from false prints? I'm afraid I'm not on board with the whole premise, but even if I were, I don't see how it provides any sort of actionable edge. It also seems kinda inconsistent with the notion of hidden powers directing the market to specific targets at will.

      I would suggest, since the market seems to be throwing up so many surprises, the key to understanding its movements and identifying high-probability set-ups is to be found elsewhere.

      Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. 🙂

      • Rosa,

        The FP will be hit… when is the question I can't answer. But I've seen too much evidence that tells me they are real (of course they might throw a fake one out there to mislead us from time to time).

        While a cigar is just a cigar… it's likely to be smoked at some point.

        🙂

  10. I have clear signals. If IWM reaches high 66's, it will retest 64, it's 50 day, soon after that.
    I conclude then, that max pain for bears is IWM 66.9.

  11. I never follow SPY…ther's been unreliable signals forever now on my charts.
    But surprisingly enough, the QQQQ and IWM, almost always follow the next line on the charts I use.

    • lolz! I've been posting this one liner at several sites over the past few days, and it appears, no-one is interested in knowing what the nuclear option is.
      Or, it's just common knowledge, and everybody already knows what it is.

  12. Thx nice charts there.

    it has been an intresting week. And I did well. Just started following a guy in OZ. http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/ftmembers he called the crash in 2008 and is now has some very intresting calls for the coming months, and is spot on from what I can tell. Worth a look.

    There is something strange in the air, i can smell it. I still cant put my finger on it…. hope it doesnt mean i lose my account next week. eeeek.

  13. Buy LONG stocks!

    My investment banker told me that it's safe to buy now and hold till the end of year.

  14. Springheel Jack threw out an 1131, short sell signal, for a short term pullback.
    He gave up on retesting 870, anytime soon. I guess he realized, we just might be in one of those, ” Climb the wall of worry” scenarios.

Comments are closed.

Loading Disqus Comments ...
Loading Facebook Comments ...