Wow! What A Rally!

By Red, on July 22nd, 2010

It’s Over Now… The Bears Are All Done!

Rally, Rally, Rally… Go Bulls! Of course you know I’m joking now, as I’m a bear by nature. And today certainly put a hurting on the bears. It took me totally by surprise, as the charts looked very bearish yesterday. That goes to show you that just as soon as you think you’ve figured it out… they change the game plan.

I honestly have no clue about tomorrow, but I’d expect a “pause” day, as that’s what usually follows a big move up (or down). Since we have now clearly broken outside the falling channel from the April high, I’d say we are going up next week too.

We still have a 112.41 spy print too be filled, and if this rally is going to continue, we’ll be there in no time flat. Just layoff some more people, cut back on earnings forecasts, talk bad about the economy… and we’ll rally to the sky. LOL. But serious, is this the most screwed up market you have ever seen? Nothing about today was bullish… absolutely NOTHING!

It was 100% manipulated to squeeze out the shorts… and boy did it ever work! And shorts left now are broke, and homeless. I hope all you bear survived it!

Ok, on to tomorrow…

The gap up and sideway trading is a major bull flag. So, if it plays out, we should open and go higher tomorrow too. Personally though, I think we will pull back a little, to retest the falling trendline around 1080 area now. Then a bounce from there to start the next move up should occur.

This all assumes that “they” want to rally the market up higher, and aren’t just tricking the bulls right now. The charts could be read either way, so I can see lot’s of bullishness in them and still find some bearishness too. Basically, if the market doesn’t confirm tomorrow, and sells off further then the 1080 backtest area (putting in back inside the channel), then we are still in “whipsaw” alley.

However, it’s looking more and more like a new up trend should start now. With all the bearish news out there, and we still rally on it… that has too tell you that we’re not likely going back down anytime soon.

But, they did leave a gap around that 1070 level that will need too be filled… eventually! Not that it’s any comfort for the short term bears, but if you hold long enough we will revisit that gap and fill it.

Well, that’s about all the bad news I can stand for today (at least for the bears), so I’ll close in saying that I really don’t know what tomorrow will bring…

Red

Weekend Update...

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

well, I got slaughtered on SNDK long…down 7% on earnings. Bears are back, for at least one day.
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

AMZN, will probably take down all retail stocks.
That in turn, should turn the market into a down day.
Thank goodness, I went short, MO,QCOM,HCP,BRCM,FFIV, end of day.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I don't see any overall down move in the afterhours (the ES), so maybe it won't take the market down? I'm clueless about tomorrow.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I think we continue to ramp until the Eurobank stress test results are released (sometime around noon tomorrow). After that? Sell the news? Popped stops rally into the close as everyone recognizes we've broken a trendline and bails on their shorts? I really have no idea.

There are a number of stops at 1100 SPX. I thought we would hit them today. Maybe tomorrow?
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

SPY is up slightly in AH, so there goes that theory, about AMZN dragging down Retail, or AH is lagging, or AMZN is a buy now, I'm kind of lost too!

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Maybe. Remember that there are some big earnings before the bell tomorrow, too. If Ford does well, I think it might blunt a lot of selling.

Also, the European bank stress tests will be released after the European markets are closed (6pm brussels time), so I expect a lot of shorts to be closed in anticipation of that. I know the whole exercise is bogus, but I'm trying to trade what I see in front of me.

Once the Eurobank news is out of the way, we could sell off. I really have no idea what price levels we'll be at.
kotla

Looks like AMZN is going to close green today — what a manipulation – they missed earnings – AH y'day went to $100.. now trading at $117.00 around 17% move up on crappy earnings..

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

This whole market is manipulated and controlled. Just no way to see big moves like this in the charts. They plan it that way of course. They don't want everyone to be able to see it coming ahead of time, and actually make a profit! It's all about deception and robbery… of us little guys of course.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
superstition

We are at a make or break area in the market. The guy from FFT has two confirming signal…and has been spot on in the past.

Check him out here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbrnD02gLg8

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks for the link. It certainly is looking more and more bullish every day now. When bad news causes huge rallies like today, what can bring the market down?

He has a lot of good points in the video, with the large bull flag and the inverted head and shoulders pattern. I don't know if we will break out to the upside tomorrow or not, but next week is looking like a rally is coming.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

SNDK, ( follow up) beat st, by 22%, I'm buying / adding to the dip.
The CEO announced he was quitting. (turkey *^#4%, move if you ask me) $39 low won't last long
TraderSU

Loaded bunch of SPY puts ~1090 range… Will double it at around 1105-1110 (if we can make it – lots of stops there so they may move their joystick)… Overall it looks bearish… I won't go net long below 1130 but throwing some hedge could be good idea.

Today should sell off hard…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

“Should” is the key word there… But will it? After that BS rally yesterday, I just don't know what to think about what they've got up their sleeve today.

Rip Van Trader

Because we are supposedly still in a technical bull market, it would make sense to stage one last bull rally and fail it. I just don't have the stomach for buying stocks based on BB's promise to run the printing press forever. I'm staying basically short until the bull is confirmed.

Show me the fake money, Ben!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Rip,

Just remember that I have 2 more upside casper's that will eventually get filled. One a 112.41 spy, and the highest one a 118.16 dia. So a B.S. rally could still happen… when is the question I can't answer?

Rip Van Trader

Seeing as how the market is 100% BS, I am open to ideas!

I am still hoping for a lower low before we go up, maybe 980. Playing it carefully, though.

Sjack123456

goldmam said 10 banks will fail stress test. is that part of your concern

Sjack123456

Looking for opinions-got crushed recently, but I got AMZN 110 puts for Aug. Should we fill the gap and go to 97, or do you think get out and play another day. I have never been great at reading charts, any ideas???

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm all out of opinions right now, after a butt whipping yesterday.

Sjack123456

then you can understand why I am frozen like the polar bear !! I am looking at the vix, it will not break, if it does I will have to give the bulls credit, and get out for now; I will not go long.

Rip Van Trader

The charts are hard to read. My view is that they showed negative divergences most of this week and that we ought to go down again.

The acid test for me is closing two days over the 50dma before I take my whipping, and then two weeks over the 50wma before I am a bull. I am having trouble being a bull with the economy on its ass and the only reason to invest being runaway inflation:

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/IndexHistoryChar…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well guys…

If it makes you feel any better, I'm pretty sure this is another casper

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

I looked in the premarket yesterday, and the afterhours too. I couldn't find any candle that closed/hit a high/or hit a low at 107.12 on the spy. Meaning… should we start selling today, that's our target. If not today, then maybe Monday or some other time next week.

newbear

Red, YGM

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks, and yes… I agree with you. It's looking more and more like the bear case is over for awhile. (YGM back).

jimhobson

Bear trap coming up folks.

They have to break 1100. And they will.

newbear

I tend to agree, retail is still too bearish.

Sir Woody Hackswell

Did some news just come out? Nice spike up.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I think another Million people lost their jobs, so of course the market rallied as the companies get to lower their employer costs. LOL!

newbear

Red, I've been in so many big office buildings where entire floors are empty. It's even kind of eerie. Rally on.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The market is heavily manipulated Newbear, that the real world just doesn't matter. They simply don't care about how many people are hurting right now.

They only care about stealing the little guys money… and the only way to do that is to rally up when everyone is still bearish. Distract them on the media, with bearish news while they secretly are buying at the bottom.

newbear

Rinse and repeat.

Sjack123456

I know little about the stock market, but real estate is in real trouble. Bought 9 houses so far; here the sick part, bid on a house for 60k the bank said no, needed 77k. House went to auction and I bought it for 24k; was told the tarp funds kick in the other 53k to make the bank whole. If they took my offer at 60k, they would realize a 17k loss, so by selling at auction they lost nothing, who do you think will pay the 53k loss…..

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Interesting…

Of course the taxpayers will pay the difference.

Sjack123456

you know that and I understand that, but I don't think anyone told the public they would pay for making unrealistic comps in the neighborhood that lower everyones values and keep the cycle going

Sir Woody Hackswell

Truly sickening. But congratulations on your nice inexpensive houses!

Sjack123456

it is sickening…and why I am a bear…programs this stupid can't end well

Sir Woody Hackswell

Unless you can take advantage of it, too. =shurg=

Sir Woody Hackswell

http://www.businessinsider.com/live-the-stress-…

Euro Stress-tests are in.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Only 7 banks fail out of 91… must have been an easy test. Probably like giving a high school student a test from 1st grade… and they got a “D”, but still passed. LOL.

Sir Woody Hackswell

Probably “easier” than the USA banks' stress tests. =shurg=

Sir Woody Hackswell

Citigroup (C) Shares Are Set to Underperform As U.S. Treasury Puts the “Stock For Sale” Sign Up Again

From April 26 through July 1, when Treasury sold 2.6 billion shares of Citigroup, the stock sold off 18 percent.

When they were selling, Treasury sold on average about 53 million shares per day, or 7% of the average daily volume.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Citi…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

This is one of those days that you could just sleep through. Nothing happening all day, and probably nothing happening in the close either.

jimhobson

Time for us Bears to bend over and grab ankles.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Sure looks that way Jim…

We should be used too it by now, as squeezing bears is a regular occurrence.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'd say that move up just cleared out a ton of shorts… and made a lot of bulls happy too.

jimhobson

Anyone have a clue what made that pop happen??

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Just a technical rally Jim. The 15 minute chart reset from being oversold and popped into positive territory. That's why the sideway consolation after a big move up, is called a bull flag.

It fulfilled it's pattern, and now we look for a new pattern to develop.

jimhobson

looks like straight up is the pattern

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, it sure looks like we are going up to 112.41 spy… and in a big hurry!

IlliniKap

Fairly obvious. They are manipulating the indices to make sure they close above the Weekly 50 SMA. For the S&P, thats 1097. Surprise, Surprise, we just popped a couple points above it. RSI on the weekly is just about to break 50 and Slow Stoch are also cracking 30. Weekly chart is about to shift to the bulls.
Johnny T.

Red, I believe I recall you speaking of Financial Astrology before. I found this fairly interesting…
http://www.apartofny.com/

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If that guy is right, then Monday is going too be ugly (for the bulls of course).
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I added that blog in the Astrology section on my blog roll. Pretty interesting how those dates produced turns in the market very accurately.

Johnny T.

Normally he just does EW, but once and a while he will throw something in there like that. We won't have to wait long to see if it materializes.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

For those that forgot, we had this FP back on June 23rd…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

We never went to 112.41 that day, so that should be the ending point of this move up… whenever it hits? Probably early next week, by the looks of the way the market is going up now.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

These after hour mini trades, always get tested eventually, 60%-70% of the time. I think ( my own conspiracy theory ) they are GS signals to other GS employees, in this case,telling them, get ready to short just before the sloppy looking one month rounded bottom fills.

jimhobson

They are going to run this to new highs.

I see no let up in the charts

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yep… 112.41 is just a little bit more away. No need to let any trapped bears out, as that's not the way they operate.

bigbadwolfusa

ok pay attention …spy closes @ 109.30…lets see if this fp works…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

What FP? I don't see one for 109.30… post it.

bigbadwolfusa

2:22
bigbadwolfusa

sorry 2:22 on min and 2:25 on 5min
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I don't see it on my charts… Hmmmm?
bigbadwolfusa

freestockcharts..
bigbadwolfusa

we'll find out in 45 min

jimhobson

Is it that tail????

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

Hi Jim,
I show a pullback signal, fairly reliable at IWM 66.9.
I'm shorting IWM at 66.9, if it gets there.

jimhobson

Do you all see the tail at about 2;20 that hits that 109.3 area???

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I don't see it Jim, but you and bigbad does…

jimhobson

Its on the yahoo charts also

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Wow… I see it on Yahoo. So that's where we should close today then.

bigbadwolfusa

http://s766.photobucket.com/albums/xx304/bigbad…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks…

You watch them take it there by the close… it's too funny sometimes.
bigbadwolfusa

ain't that the truth

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Wow… I thought we were headed down there, but a bot came in and pushed the POS by up.

bigbadwolfusa

hows it go…it aint over till the fat lady sings…

bigbadwolfusa

well so much for the fake print theory today

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'd say that because of the attention it's been getting lately, they probably put that one up on Yahoo to throw everyone off… meaning it was a fake FP.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well gang, have good weekend. No post for tonight (I hate talking about the bulls). I have the weekend post up by Sunday night. But just to keep it simple, I'd say we go hit the FP of 112.41 spy next for sure.

Red

http://rosabarba.livejournal.com Rosabarba

Red, I'm sorry but I have to ask: What sort of trading edge can someone really derive from false prints? I'm afraid I'm not on board with the whole premise, but even if I were, I don't see how it provides any sort of actionable edge. It also seems kinda inconsistent with the notion of hidden powers directing the market to specific targets at will.

I would suggest, since the market seems to be throwing up so many surprises, the key to understanding its movements and identifying high-probability set-ups is to be found elsewhere.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Rosa,

The FP will be hit… when is the question I can't answer. But I've seen too much evidence that tells me they are real (of course they might throw a fake one out there to mislead us from time to time).

While a cigar is just a cigar… it's likely to be smoked at some point.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

I have clear signals. If IWM reaches high 66's, it will retest 64, it's 50 day, soon after that.
I conclude then, that max pain for bears is IWM 66.9.
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

I never follow SPY…ther's been unreliable signals forever now on my charts.
But surprisingly enough, the QQQQ and IWM, almost always follow the next line on the charts I use.
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

Does the gov't want a double dip recession?
If they do, then the Treasury dep't won't use its nuclear option.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

lolz! I've been posting this one liner at several sites over the past few days, and it appears, no-one is interested in knowing what the nuclear option is.
Or, it's just common knowledge, and everybody already knows what it is.

Anonymous

Thx nice charts there.

it has been an intresting week. And I did well. Just started following a guy in OZ. http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/ftmembers he called the crash in 2008 and is now has some very intresting calls for the coming months, and is spot on from what I can tell. Worth a look.

There is something strange in the air, i can smell it. I still cant put my finger on it…. hope it doesnt mean i lose my account next week. eeeek.
Sally

Buy LONG stocks!

My investment banker told me that it's safe to buy now and hold till the end of year.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

trolling

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

TEVA, oh man, it was a buy on FRI.
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/20…
Pzy5t0

Red, I believe you posted this site a month back, interesting call for July 27th. http://spiraldates.com/

Best regards, Pzy5t0
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

Springheel Jack threw out an 1131, short sell signal, for a short term pullback.
He gave up on retesting 870, anytime soon. I guess he realized, we just might be in one of those, ” Climb the wall of worry” scenarios.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Weekend Post up everyone. It's a little on the darkside this time, but then again… you should expect that from me by now.
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