Almost There…

By Red, on August 17th, 2010

Video Update for Thursday…

I think the top is just about in now gang. I see one more pop higher tomorrow… to the 111.17 FP level, and then the selling to begin. I don’t have any idea if it’s going to be a really big move down or if that will be next week on the turn date of the 26th-27th, but I see some serious selling coming soon… be ready.

Red

————————————————————————————————————–

To the top of Wave 2 that is…

(Direct link to video, incase it doesn’t show above… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk-YBJnczy4)

And then larger wave 3 of (Possibly) Primary wave 3 is ready to start. It’s the wave that you might see once every 90 years or so… well, at least to the magnitude this one is! While I’m not positive that we are in Primary wave 3 down yet, as many others still think we are in Primary wave 2 up.

And I can’t rule that out, as I still have unfulfilled upside FP of DIA 118.16, but they is no telling when we will hit it. Could be next year or longer, who knows? But, the charts tell me that we are likely to head down into the Legatus meeting instead of up.

Maybe they cashed their checks back in April, and are now waiting for any great buying opportunity to happen. Certainly they could find some great bargains in the market if we go down to Dow 8300 into the meeting next month.

Think of it like this, if you tank the market now (when no one is expecting it), then you can rally it in October, when everyone is looking for a crash to occur… and steal the masses’ money of course. LOL

So to sum it up…

I see a move up to the FP of 111.17 spy tomorrow, and then a possible flat to slightly down move into Friday. However, should they not be able to spin the data positive on Thursday morning, it could start the wave 3 down before the end of the week. We know they want to hold it there to squeeze out the bears letting their puts expire worthless, but can they?

Holding this wave 3 back isn’t going to be easy too do… especially if the reports on Thursday are really bad. But, you should never underestimate the power they have to control this market. As I mentioned at the end of the video, there is a turn date on the 26th-27th that looks very powerful according to the chart on the spiraldates.com site.

There is a less powerful turn date on the 19th, which would make more sense since this is opx week. Maybe we peak at 111.17 tomorrow and slide back down to 109 area by Friday? That’s not a big move down, but would reflect a small reversal as indicated by the chart only having a “1″ spiraldates score.

However, I don’t fully understand the chart, and the “score” could simply mean that it has “x” amount of chances of turning on that date, but doesn’t indicate the strength or power of the move occurring. So, if a turn date has a “1″ for it’s score, and it does actually turn on that date, the intensity of the move isn’t known or reflected in the chart. Hopefully that makes sense to you?

That’s all for now…

Red

The Bears Win Today!

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

RIMM, fake print…In the old days, they called these “composite trades” I’d say 60% or more do what they say they will do.
Google censored any definition of “composite trade” long ago.
People call them fake prints, now….
Large volume blocks of stocks traded out of the public eye, between 2 big houses, to balance the books between each other.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I never knew that Z… thanks for the update.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

google is as Evil as a pig digging up the whole forest looking for truffles.
Lester

Zstock. I signed up to your service a month ago and still waiting for password. I emailed you again. Please check you gmail.
Thank you.

http://zentrader.ca zentrader

Red, I really like you're nightly commentary. I don't have the time to read to many blogs, but yours is one I try to make it to once a day.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Zen…

I also try to pop around the blogsphere and read what others are saying too. I don't have time to read them all either, but I've read yours too.
http://zentrader.ca zentrader

do you have a post or can you direct me to a good explanation of a “fake print”. Your blog is my first exposure to this phenom and I just want to understand it more. thx.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones Futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
jimhobson

Not the open I expected. Bought shorts yesterday but only nibbled. if this continues i am unarmed.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It will stop soon, and reverse back up Jim. You know they aren't going to let the bears make money that easy. It's a trap for the retail shorts right now. They are going to turn this up after the first hour or so, and squeeze them all out.

jimhobson

Looks like clock work. I was holding off for 1105 before i started adding to yesterdays entry.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, that fulfilled the 109.20 spy FP from yesterday with a little to spare. I've noticed that sometimes they push through the FP on momentum, but nevertheless… we hit our target.

Next is the 111.17 FP, which could take all day today and even into tomorrow possibility. The 15 minute chart is very oversold now, and looking to turn back up. I expect it to take most of the day to work its' way back into overbought territory.

At the same time, the 60 minute chart should put in a second positive histogram tower, that is smaller then the current one. This will give it a negative divergence as the market moves higher.

If it makes it's finally peak at the same time the 15 minute chart gets overbought, that could set tomorrow up as a nice down day. The initial claims and continuing claims are out in the morning which could start some selling.

But the Philadelphia Fed numbers on Friday at 10:00 am should be a real market mover… especially if they aren't positive.

Too me, the wise thing to do would be to wait until 111.17 spy is hit today and go short into this data. Even if it's view as positive, I don't see much more upside past 111.17, without some selling first.

Of course if the data is horrible, then we can expect a huge sell off to happen. But, I have no idea on what the data is… only that the odds favor very little upside past 111.17, and a potential for a lot of downside if it's negative.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The VXX is basically dead right now. It could fall all the way back down to 21.30 to fill the gap before reversing. This would allow the market to get to 111.17 spy, per the FP.

If it doesn't happen today, then I'd expect it to happen tomorrow. The claims data tomorrow will likely be view positive, and give the market the boost it needs to go higher… should it not do it today.

jimhobson

Vix call volume is too high IMO for Vxx to drop that much. Also the vix would have to move alot more negative to carry to that level.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We might just close flat today guys? If so, then I'd expect tomorrow to rally up to the 111.17 spy FP, but if it hits it today then tomorrow could see some selling.

However, as I said earlier, the claims numbers can easily be made up. Therefore I would expect too much downside on Thursday if we hit the 111.17 print into the close today.

But Friday could cause so selling if the Philly Fed is negative? My gut tells me they will hold it up until opx is over and then take it down early next week. Who's knows which it will be, but the top is close now… that's for sure.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

S&P 500 testing 50 Hour moving average
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Diablos

Prediction: SPX 1110.70 Monday @ 3:00 PM.

Sorry for taking up space, just trying something out.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL…

Come on now Diablo's, I've got less 20 posts today and you think you are taking up space? Please… post all you want my friend. It helps keep the site active and ranked with google.

The market is so boring right now that maybe I should start talking about some conspiracy or hot girls or something… just to get people chatting. LOL…

newbear

All of the above would be nice.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL…

So how you doing NewBear? Surviving this crazy market…

newbear

I went short yesterday and covered this morning went long and covered again. So making some dough.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Mr. TopStep…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fbTJdQNelo
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Option Monster…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKHM5UqcxYM
Diablos

Possible EW Count. http://screencast.com/t/NTdmYWMyYmQ

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Could be? I'm sure a lot of retail bears went short again here. I'm sure they are going to get squeezed tomorrow.

jimhobson

Got to admit i nibbled at today's highs. looking rather smart at the momenet

http://twitter.com/2wires Robert

Very nice trading day again. Selling at resistance has worked quite well. Bought some shorts and looking for some bad numbers tomorrow. Max pain at 110 but some interest at 1050 for OPEX. Bulls look extremely week last two closes. Thanks Red for your insights.
http://twitter.com/2wires Robert

Nice selling in AH. Would love to see a major selloff into the weekend. Bears are hungry…………
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Sorry for the late update gang, I had some things I had to do. I just added a video update, as it's easier to say it, then type it. Just refresh the page to see it.
Pzy5t0

Thanks Red, great work as always! Best regards,
Geccko23

Jaywiz, The Cramer code had Sept 4 as the possible end of a 1929type decline if I cracked the code. (June 18 to Sept 4)…but this is an interpretation. There is also the 7month low cycle that has slipped my mind recently. 07-08-09 and 02-05-10 which projects to early Sept. George Lindsay had postulated a low low high cycle but I believe it will be more likely a low based on some unmentioned factors. We are also entering a period of interesting numerologiclal trading day numbers. Yesterday was 365 trading days, today 366,tomorrow 367 (67 has been an active trading day cycle) and of course Monday is 369 trading days from 3-6-9 low. I expect Monday to be a nasty day. 666calendar days + 13 days=August 20. August 20 is also 60 calendar days from the summer solstice high and 60degrees from it.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

September the 4th is just a few days in front of the Legatus Pilgrimage, which would then mean that they would introduce some more stimulus into the market, causing a rebound to occur.

Geccko23

666 calendar days from October 10 2008 financial crisis low+13 is August 20. I also could see some major action occurring in September. Around Sept 19-20 which is Legatus time. McClellan Summation Index is so high now, it will take several weeks just for it to get to the area where markets bottom. June18 was a closing high so 60degrees later could be today.

Geccko23

All the stock averages except leaders Dow,SP, and Nyse went up and tagged their declining 10 day averages today. Bollinger bands are tightening for the stock indices and VIX and their width are now approaching the April early May high levels. There is an April topping fractal in all of the indices where we would be in the April 29,30 May 3 area and the last two days are also sporting the reverse fractal of the July 1 low.
The Euro is currently receiving a pummelling and if that continues tomorrow it will be off to the races to the downside. (with a Vix shooting above its 50 day average) Big boy leader CVX (Chevron) was down today. We'll see if the expected POMO induced ramp job materializes but I saw POMO warnings for tomorrow all over the blogs today.

tempest218

the philly fed numbers come out at 10 AM EST tomorrow

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I thought is was Friday when it came out. Well, that would be a good reason to sell off. Thanks for the update.

Rk318

when nifty start correct sharply at final hour of the trade u take it as definite clue…………………….that dow will correct also on that day.
offcourse there r only fii's who buy aggresively in our market last whole month to take it 52 week high before huge correction…………

i have been noticed the above nifty-dow connection from last 2 years may be it is correct well i hope so
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The jobs data was bad as expected… 500,000 now, up by 12,000. So, let's see if they still manage to rally up to 111.17 after that.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones Futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It would really surprise me if they manage to get it up to 111.17 today or tomorrow. Those claims numbers were really bad. But, never underestimate those that control the market.

jimhobson

I think they push to 1120 in the next week or so.

Histogram towers a shifting up STO is on up tick,, macd has not crossed 0 line and looks like on up move, still above 50 sma, adx lines moving together.

Futures are non committal and today's new is bouncing off.

And now here we go.

jimhobson

Sorry for the dbl post. i kept getting “just a moment” after hitting the post button

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL… it happens to me too Jim. Don't worry about it. It's no big deal.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You know… they might dip below the zero level on the 60 minute chart today, and then recycle it back up tomorrow to the 111.17 level? With the daily still pushing up, I don't see the 60 spending too much time in negative territory.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like they are going for gap fill.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If the Philly Fed numbers are bad, this thing is going to fall off a cliff. There won't be and 111.17 print, that's for sure.
Jimhobson

Notice the vixes are flat. This is a manipulated move. expect a major bounce.

And I hope iam wrong.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It looks like the 111.17 print will have too wait until next week, as it's not likely to hit today. However, with no major news out tomorrow, we could see a move higher.

I think our major move down is going to be on the 26th-27th now. That would give the daily chart the time it needs to get above the zero level on the histogram bars, and then roll over for good. They never make it easy for the bears.
Diablos

To support 111.17, most counts assume we are in a corrective wave (A-B-C).

if A = (1100.14 – 1069.49) = 30.65 and if todays low holds,
B = (1100.14 – 1077.35) = 22.79 or 74.4% (B wave retraces >50 <78.6)

Most Common C values are 100% of A.

Taking 100% you have 1077.35 + 30.65 = 1108

Not saying, but not eliminating.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I agree Diablos. It looks like my timing was off a little. I really expected the 111.17 print to be hit today or tomorrow, but it might not hit until next week now.

http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

He who hesitates is lost – or at least has to wait until another re-entry point. I was going to go short again at SPY 110 but decided to wait for 111. Also, this thing called work and meetings keeps getting in the way or maybe saves me.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, you certainly could have made money on the move down today… for a 1-2 day move, however the move I'm looking for is a large wave 3 down. It now looks like that won't happen until late next week.

But, I do expect a move up tomorrow… as it's opx and they aren't going to let the new put buyers make any money. We might close out Friday around 1100 or so… that's my guess.

jimhobson

For that to happen we will see a run up into close today IMO

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah… I thought the market would hold the line today, but it failed. It will be next week before we get to 111.17 now. As for the 1100 level tomorrow, it's not looking likely now.

jimhobson

I had less than 40% of my short positions when this started and was expecting the 1106 area at minimum.

Will not chase so we wait to see if a bounce materializes which i expect will happen either eod or tomorrow.

Vix has gotten in the game but is not yet over that 6% area that would accelerate the selling.

http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

see if 107 area holds
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Boy, when you look at the sell off we've had today… it doesn't look possible to get back up to 111.17 next week (and it may not?), but a follow through tomorrow would tell us if “this is it”, or not.

Are we in Wave 3 down now, or wave B down with wave C up to 111.17 next week? I don't know, but right now it's not looking good for the bulls.

I totally miss the call today, as I was expecting a move up first, and then down. That's why they call this gambling I guess… LOL.

jimhobson

Its not that big of a sell off and the vix is calming down which means the last 15 minutes will be the sory of the day IMO.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, at least you were 40% short Jim. I missed the whole move as I wrong on my call for it to go up to 111.17 first. Next week we'll probably see that print I believe.

Geccko23

I was trying to remember where I saw August 18 as a key cycle date and lo and behold I remember that it was the final day of the latest crash window for Bam Investor. Those guys are getting good almost up to T Theory Dude and Nenner like levels. Of course all of their crash windows have “inverted”. I am going to need to pay closer attention to them from now on to decide whether they're being gamed or not. But it makes sense a selloff starts after their latest crash window closes. Meanwhile all the shills continue to clamor for a rally into late August.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm wondering if they being gamed too, as they were clearly off on their forecast. It seems that TPTB know exactly what all the well known blogs/websites/forecasters are predicting, and they change the plan so it doesn't play out that way.

We might just fall off a cliff next week, or rally up to 111.17 first and then fall off a cliff in the first week of September? It's certainly not an easy market to figure out.

http://twitter.com/2wires Robert

Numbers were ugly as predicted and market sold off. I love when a plan turns out. I believe it's going to be ugly tomorrow and would love to see thst 1050 get hit.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, it could get ugly from here Robert. I'm not sure yet what they have planned. Most days after a big sell off are flat… just “pause” day, but if it sells off hard again tomorrow then I'd say wave 3 has started.

http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

SPY after hours – highs hit 109.78 for what it's worth
16:40 $ 109.7897 500,212
16:40 $ 109.7897 1,000,420
16:40 $ 107.66 1,400
16:40 $ 109.7897 1,300,542

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I seen that… I don't know if that's just a late fill or a real FP? You know they are going to pin the SPY at a level that benefits them the most… but what is that level? Could be the 110 level… you never know.

http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

I hope it gets back up so I can re-enter

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That would be nice, as I called it wrong today. I really thought we would go up to 111.17 first, and then sell off. But, the data was just too bad I guess?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

New post is up gang…
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