Just a simple video update for Friday. I'll have more on my weekend report by Sunday night. Enjoy the weekend everyone....
Red
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
But don't count the bulls out yet...
Well gang, I'm bummed out. Â I missed the call yesterday, as I really expected it to pop up to 111.17 first... and then sell off. Â I guess that will be the high for next Thursday or Friday now, as I certainly don't see that happening tomorrow.
That's the only problem with the FP's... you never know when they are going to hit. Â But, at least some of you were able to make some profit on the move down. Â I know Jim said he was 40% short, and I'm sure many of the rest of you were also positioned short.
For me, I'm looking forward to the next turn date as I think it will make today's move down look chump change. Â If it is a wave 3 down, then it's going to be really ugly! Â That would mean that we are now going down into the Legatus Pilgrimage, instead of up.
So, coming out of the September 9th-20th meeting you can expect some type of new stimulus package to rally the market back up. Â How high is anyone's guess. Â Let's first see if we are indeed in Primary wave 3 down or not? Â With that DIA 118.16 print still not fulfilled, it is still possible that they run the market up into the end of the year and hit that level before ending P2.
Yes, it seems highly unlikely now, but anything is possible. Â Getting back to tomorrow, I'd say we have a quiet day ending flat or up at the close. Â Remember, tomorrow is opx day and they will likely pin the spy where it benefits them the most.
So, as long as the double bottom holds, I'd expect a move up into the afternoon session. Â I seen an afterhours print of 109.79 spy, but that could have been a late fill. Â It seems pretty unlikely that we rally that high after a move down like today, but again... anything is possible.
The 15 minute chart ended today forming a bear flag and with the histogram tower rolling over. Â I would expect it to sell off quickly in the morning, maybe down to retest the double bottom, and then roll back up throughout the rest of the day. Â The 60 minute chart will be rising up too, supporting the 15... so that should give the market a little lift into the afternoon. Â Add in light volume, no more economic data or news, and traders leaving early for the weekend... and you have a decent chance of closing positive tomorrow.
Next week will be something I'll cover in the weekend report...
Red
Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
It's getting ugly San. I think we are going down hard next week. While I still think we will go up to 111.17 spy first, the turn dates of August 26th-27th could start a wave 3 of 3 of 3 down… very bad for the bulls.
You are right Leo. If price starts spending time below 50 DMA. 10000 in dow will be tested again.
Dow Jones Futures in a Falling wedge
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Possible EW Count
http://screencast.com/t/NThkYWY1Mm
1065 looks important, but it would also coincide nicely with the end of wave 1 of 1 of 3 of P3
Interesting… that is certainly possible.
Dow Jones at 50% retrace level
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Just a heads up… I see a 107.93 FP from 10:50 am this morning.
Did we not already hit that this am?? 107.94??
Jim
I don't think so Jim…
Red, do u think major fall is in now or this is a trap for the bears? Is gap fill necessary? if yes then what about our 17% gap up opening in may 2009 do u think nifty will never fill that gap in future?
I see a move up next week, into the 26th-27th… then another leg down. How high we go up isn't something I don't know? We could already be in wave 3 down… it's hard to say at this point, but I think next week will be worst.
Not sure if I follow you Red, 'a move up next week, into' thursday/friday but yet 'next week will be worse'?
I think we will retrace some of this move down, and then fall down in another wave on the 26th-27th turn date. While I thought we would go up to 111.17 first, that's looking unlikely now.
I'm not sure of course, but I think we just started wave 1 down inside wave 3, which means a retracement wave 2 up early next week, and then wave 3 down inside wave 3.
The charts are looking too bearish now to go above Wednesdays' high, so I think next weeks' move up will be to some Fib. level from that high to the low we put in today. Hopefully that makes sense?
Yup. Understand.
Getting close to throwing in the towel on the EW count i have been posting and join the masses that were in P3, but not just yet.
This guy seems to be hitting it out of the park, not sure why i'm fighting it… http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
Dow Jones Futures support line violated.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Looks like it's trying to get back above the support line San. I think we will close flat… either up or down just a little bit. We should move up into the close today.
We have an intraday FP of 107.93 spy, and that basically a flat close… should we get to it today?
It is trying stay within the pattern. But i don't think this bounce is going to last. We may see another sell off before end of day.
It's possible I guess? If so, that would be even more proof that we are likely in wave 3 down. The up move next week shouldn't be very far if this it the “big wave 3” that we bears have all been waiting on.
We just got another FP at 107.93 again… we might be going to it into the close gang?
Close around 1067-68 eS
Maybe? but they might still run up to take 107.93 print, and then roll back down the last 10 minutes of the day.
Dow Jones inverted head and shoulders
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Selling at resistance has worked very well for me all week. Should be some buying into the close. Great week fellas………..
This is getting fun. Pause day but still with negative breadth. 20day average is starting to roll over. Big boy CVX (chevron) free falling and making a new low on this move down. I just bought some DUG and bought some other inverse ETFs and VXX an hour or so ago. Euro also made a new low. Options expiration is holding up the market today. I can only imagine what it might look like on Monday when the prop job is no longer needed. Chris Carolan is the latest I see to call for a rally into the dreaded August 26 date although the jury is out whether he is a shill or not.
Although I was a subscriber of his long ago, I haven't followed him enought to see how his calls are faring (mostly because they don't make it into the blogosphere)
Yes… very fun now Geccko. The rallies back are weak. While I also expect some kind of rally early next week, I don't think it will go too high. If it just chops sideways for several days, then the sell off afterwards would be extremely ugly.
It's looking more and more like a wave 3 of 3 of 3 is coming toward the end of next week. Go Bears.
The VIX bull flag.
http://screencast.com/t/OGU3MzM2Y2Qt
I think the crap is about to hit the fan CC… LOL Poor little bulls.
Yeah, I think they got the blinders on. I'm thinking slightly bullish monday, then hard down. LOL!
Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
It's going to break next week San (the support line in your chart). But, I think we will rally a little early in the week first. The turn dates of the 26th-27th should start a move down that will take out 10,000.
You are right and the index you are talking about is trading below its 20 day moving average, 50 day moving average, 50 week moving average, and 200 day moving average.
Ok gang, I don't usually do Friday posts, (and I still didn't), but I did put up a new video for you guys. Just refresh the page to see it. I'll still have the weekend post update by late Sunday night. Have a good weekend everyone.
Weekend Update is now up…