Friday, June 14, 2024

Rally Time?

Video Update for Friday...

Red

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or just a relief bounce...

After selling off for 4 days straight, the market needed a breather, and that's exactly what we got today.  As for tomorrow, as long as the initial claims and continuing claims numbers meet or beat expectations, the market should go a little higher.

I'm not saying that it will for sure, but it's likely to push up some as the 60 minute chart is in rally mode now.  The 107 spy area is the likely target, where it will find resistance again from the larger falling channel.  If it makes it back up there, then I expect that area to stop the rally and then continue the selling next week (and possibly Friday too?).

The GDP number on Friday could be a non-event, and then the market would just trade sideways to up a little.  But, if it's really bad, then we could see a huge sell off on Friday.  There is no way to tell right now, but the trend is still down.  We just have to wait out this relief rally for a few days.

So, if you are short, just be prepared for a small bear shakeout before another leg down occurs.  There is still nothing bullish in these charts, but the market has come down pretty far and pretty quickly.  So, a bounce is to be expected.  It could last just for tomorrow, or a few more days?  There is no way to tell just yet, but I don't think it will last into next week.

Good luck to all the bulls and bears out there...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Instigator928
13 years ago

I enjoyed your analysis. 1070 or not…we're going down.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Instigator928

Thanks… I try. 🙂

This
This
13 years ago

I enjoy your commentary and look forward to your analysis on Utube.

Thanks

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

The stock indices have a similarity to the days leading up to the flash crash in regards to its bollinger bands They have hit their lower downtrending BBs and are starting to hug them. The last two days action are mimicking the May 4, 5th days as the BBs are just starting to widen. This is the start of a new move and it appears that a counter -trend rally can begin from this formation. Even if there isn't a crash tomorrow, the indices should continue to hug the decling BBs. Only a complete close inside the BBs would be the first sign of a new rally. And this brings me back to the trader with a great track record the last few months. He waits for a bubble to form with the widening BBs and then waits for the BBs to contract with the indices down at BBs before he takes a counter-trend trade (from what I gather). The BBs are just now starting to widen. I also went back to the 1987 crash, and the market started its crash leg in a similar position. (basically after 2 piercings beneath a downtrending lower BB). Its hard to believe a crash can occur with such a high Mc Summation reading but it happened with the flash crash on May 6. Oil and the currencies are just approaching their lower BBs although the currencies haven't really tagged them yet. Euro is currently doing well in afterhours which would have a positive effect on the markets tomorrow but that could change by the morning.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

I meant it is unlikely a counter-trend rally can begin with the indices just now starting to tag their downtrending BBs. Maurice Walker has a BB chart on page 3 of his charts………I also went back and checked the Sept 2001 waterfall decline and the SP put up a similar bar on Sept 10. August 26 is also an equidistant 56 days to July 1 low with May 6 flash crash day. (I liked the Aug. 25 numerology better). It also 66 cds from the Summer Solstice high on June 21. July 1 was 66 cds from the April 26 high. And of course it is a major Tdate although T Theory Guru is supposedly disavowing it now. (although as a high) A new 13 day cycle also might come into play tomorrow although it originally was a low cycle (that connects back to May 6) but the last cycle was the August 9 high.

zstock7
13 years ago

2 other DOW 30’s BA,UTX—If there’s a a price channel change there, I can’t see it.
go long at their last lows, looks to be worth trying.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Lots of overhead resistance San. So even if the market can get back in that falling wedge, I don't think it can hold it too long.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Trend is clearly down. If key levels are not taken out by the bulls this will be another sell on rally.
But we have to wait and see if the rally happens

dreadwin
13 years ago

Closed the rest of my DRN position around 42. (bought at 38.32)

Currently long oil via UCO

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Anna went long yesterday too Dreadwin, so that was a good call. I'm sure she'll be looking to close out those longs today as well, as I can't see this rally lasting into tomorrow.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think everyone is scared of the GDP number. The max I expected from DRN on this move is to go from 38 to 42.80. I feel like I've captured most of that move, and now will look for other trades.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Smart move Dreadwin… you are a smart trader.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks! To make it in this market recently, one has to be completely disciplined and pragmatic. I think that the REITs are a smoking ruin of fail, but I will happily take that trade if I can make money on it.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Closed em all at open cept one
😀

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

You going short again now?

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yes 🙂

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I closed my long oil position (UCO), too. I'm looking to go short on a bounce.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I don't blame you. The vix is putting in a bull flag, gs is still falling from the morning high, aapl is putting a bear flag, and xom is struggling too… with a topping tail on the current candle.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I entered into the UCO trade after-hours yesterday (8.63). The rationale was that oil makes a large part of it's move in after-hours. As oil kept going up, I kept increasing my stop and finally got taken out at 8.88 (+3%). It was supposed to be a low-risk trade, so I wasn't going to push it.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

3 % improvement initial claims from a very bad level and the market is euphoric??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

It was more based on the technicals Jim, as the market just needed a reason to bounce. Let's see if they can continue all day with GDP out tomorrow… LOL

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Buyers do not appear to be jumping in?? I was going to wait till above 1062 to add to shorts.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Yeah, and the 60, 15, and 5 minute charts don't have a lot of room to go on the upside before rolling back down. I really can't see this lasting into tomorrow either Jim.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

GS looks like it's got an inverted H&S on the 10 minute chart. If it plays out, it could help rally the market. However, the vix is falling and is almost at gap fill, which should give it support. Apple has filled it's gap and is stuck there.

Basically, the market could breakout to the upside… or fail and come back down. However, it's running out of time as the 60 and 15 minute charts are going into overbought territory now.

It's hard to say what's going to happen at this point? I just don't think it will have enough juice to breakout today. Maybe tomorrow if the GDP numbers come in good? Who knows?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Something just turned it down??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Yep… rally no more! LOL

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

GS, XOM, and AAPL are falling too gang. Looks like the rally might have ended?

Anna
13 years ago

break 1050 and we fall hard

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I take it you are short now…

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 Trading near support area
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Vix is not supporting any direction at the moment. Hard to say where we go now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Yes, volume is also light now… which usually means the market will have an upside bias.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Upside bias, or at least just protecting SPX 1050, methinks.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Is the market open on Monday? Isn't a holiday coming up soon? I forget what day it is…

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Labour day is first mon in Sept, no? 2 weeks if that's right.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

This weak volume and anemic vix is going to allow a break to the upside at 2pm or 3pm ET

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

There's no volume at all today. The market will likely go higher into the close today, if it doesn't breakdown soon. It's forming a bull flag (weak one, but with light volume it could play out) on the 60 minute chart now.

We might be doing an ABC move up to 1070 or so, with this pull back being wave B, and wave C to follow tomorrow (assuming the GDP number isn't horrible?).

zstock7
13 years ago

IWM, has that clearly in a downtrend, middle bb band… good for shorting. These things usually have 3 possible short entries. a little higher than today, 1. 5% higher or right now

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones hits the trend line
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

zstock7
13 years ago

IWM thoughts, 3 to 5 days out.
http://zstock7.com/wp- content/uploads/2010/08/iwm-8-26.jpg

Instigator928
13 years ago

Looks like:
PRIMARY 3
INTERMEDIATE 1
MINOR 3
MINUTE [iii]
Minuette v
Subminuette 1

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Instigator928

Sounds good too be… LOL! I can't wait until it's all wave 3's!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Anna has a 104.81 FP gang… so that could be our downside target today?

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

another round trip day 🙂

rodders
rodders
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, I know you have mentioned FP before, what is FP? And how did she come up with that level?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  rodders

FP means Fake Print, or ghost print, or casper. They are targets TPTB put out there to tell their friends where they are going to take the market.

rodders
rodders
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thank you, good to know.

Anna
13 years ago

getting close here

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

To what? Bouncing back up, or falling off a cliff? LOL

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

104.80 we got 104.88

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Will SOMEONE fulfill my wish and make these !@$#@$ markets fall off a cliff? K Thx! 😉

rodders
rodders
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, that was not a good close, let see what tomorrow brings. On the daily(spx), the bollinger bands are expanding, the RSI could still go lower. You may be right we are going lower. Fingers crossed! If it at closed at 1040 that would be an even better close.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  rodders

Yeah, and just briefly looking at the charts, the 60, 15, and 5 minute charts are pointing back down now. Not good for a rally, that's for sure. But, who knows? Maybe they will spin the GDP to a positive number, and up and up and away we go!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I see the FP on your chart. It looks like it happened at the open. I'm assuming that's why you posted the chart… 🙂

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

no that was it it was 104.81 and this is H&S

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

The upper tail hit your 105.50 I think.

Anna
13 years ago

adding more spy puts

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I do wonder about the GDP tomorrow? If it's viewed positive, will it rally the market, or are we done? It looks like there is more selling coming, but the light volume is puzzling?

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

might see it tomorrow just trading according to charts not news

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Bernie is cooking the books up at Golf and Tennis as we speak.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

LOL…

Yes, this could be a wave B down in an ABC up to the 1070 area? Or, we could be in a wave 3 down? Hard to say?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Wow what a stick 1052.5, hit 200 on 5 minute now what??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

We roll back over it looks like… 🙂

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Nice call Anna. You could not have been closer than that.

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

TMG2010
TMG2010
13 years ago

Red is going to have a field day this evening! Looks like his call was Golden. As Red would say “Watch out below”.

Robert
13 years ago

2 more days for the bears to feast. ……that is all………………….

dreadwin
13 years ago

Went long with a 1/2 position in DRN after hours (40.20, but I could have gotten in for $40 if I waited). There are a gazillion reasons to be bearish but this chart is suggesting something else:

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I won't rule out a move up, as it's certain possible. But, I did notice on that chart that the MACD's had crossed over and were pointing up at the previous black candle you have circle.

However, right now the MACD's are still pointing down on the black candle we had today. That's a big difference and shouldn't be ignored. If today's daily chart was showing any signs of pointing back up then I'd agree with you that we might rally, but the comparison in that chart isn't equal in my opinion.

But good luck with it Dread… I do wish you well. Maybe it will show some signs of turning up tomorrow? I don't know? Anything is possible.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

The MACD is definitely in a weaker position this time around. I was mainly focused on the fractal pattern of the candlesticks. Candlestick theory generally is unconcerned with MACD or RSI.

Go here if you want to explore more candlestick theory:

http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?Comp

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I try to look at candlestick patterns too, but I like to combine them with the other TA's as well. I just think that the larger time frames are now a lot more negative then they were back then… especially since the market is now below the moving averages instead of above them.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Take a look at the daily chart for SPG (the leading REIT). Yes, MACD is bearish, but RSI is over 50. A clear 5 waves up from July, and an ABC down from the high with a shallow retrace. The C wave really does look finished. Price bounced of the confluence of the lower bollinger band and the 50 day moving average. I just don't see anything bearish there. Next stop is likely to be the upper bollinger band.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Do have a link to the chart handy?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

That chart do look like it could roll back up. And, it's trading above the 20 and 50 moving averages, while the spx isn't. Big difference between the two. On top of that, it's hitting the low BB level too… which could give it support.

That whole move up from 75 to 94, and then down to the current price… looks like a bull flag too me. So yes, I agree with you on that chart. It does look bullish.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Mkt follows SPG – I have heard that before …

Mnytzfan30
Mnytzfan30
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It looks like its topping to me. BBs are tightening. Dropped to the lower BB and now bouncing to midline/ 20 day average where it most likely repelled. It's probably lagging the overall market by a few days.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

New video update. Refresh page.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

20 day average will be dropping below the 50 soon. Of course, it's a lagging indicator so the market should be well south when that happens.
Even better news, it appears that T Theory Guru has extended his major T, that was due to expire, into next week joining the multitude of other gurus calling for a rally into the end of August.
Nice down day with negative breadth to keep the McSummation declining while also allowing the BBs to continue to widen.
Jaywiz is my newest contrarian indicator. Called for the market to drop 20% on Monday. Now says there will be no crash. Had today as a positive day with it continuing to rally into Monday. Last I saw oil was off its high for the day quite a bit. Todays bar is similar to bars seen before melt-ups in June and July but on those days breadth was positive and the ramp-up was already beginning in after-hours which I haven't seen so far. (but haven't checked in a few hours)

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
13 years ago

Wow!!! you have to listen to Tony on this….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOfRLINVqcg&feat

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  bigbadwolfusa

Common sense. Nice to hear.

Thanks for posting.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

“The government revised its reading of second-quarter gross domestic product to 1.6%. That was down from the previously reported 2.4%, but still topped expectations.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting economic activity to slow to 1.4%. “

… And the futures markets are rejoicing at this? =blink=

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

MMm!!! Nice waterfall! Keep it up! W00t!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That might be all we get today Woody? It's a double bottom now and since the GDP and Ben's speech is over, it's likely to rise back up later today.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hoover DAM! 😉 PPT is at the wheel again, eh?

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

That's why I went long and staying long.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

So far you are right Newbear, but I just think there might be one more flush out before a small rally. We'll see… the day ain't over yet.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

What absolute garbage.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well gang, we knew that this could happen. This is one of those times where the charts don't matter. The crooks are going to buy it up and rally it… period!

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I put my $$$ on this.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Do you know someone at Goldman Sachs? LOL

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think the IYT chart I posted last night showed pretty good fractal evidence that we were going to rally today.

Today was a great day for bulls and bears. If you sold the rally yesterday at 1060ish and covered this morning, you banked coin. If you bought on weakness yesterday or today and sold today, you banked coin. I did!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Yes Dread…

It looked like they both played out. Down to the double bottom and then a rally. At this point however, the market needs to break out of this channel if it wants to rally next week too. We'll see, but I think the upside is limited.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, I think we have been in a complex wave 4 all week. Lots of ABCs. I think we are going to retrace half of this gain by Monday.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

It's a lot of whipsaw action, designed to frustrate the bears, and give the bulls false hope. In the end, they will both lose… LOL

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Since today is Friday, and all the bad news is out now, and the fact that the rest of the day is likely to have light volume… I'd say that this would be the perfect day for the market to break out of the falling channel.

This assumes that they want to rally the market now, and this isn't just a head fake? It's a nice double bottom now around 1040, so it might hold today. The key is if they break out of the falling channel or not by the end of the day.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't see the VIX going above 29 for a few days.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

It's at gap fill right now, so it might not fall too much further. But, it might not rise either?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Man, the GDP and Bernankes' speech must have been wonderful…

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

he said it.

he will print money to purchase securities to prop the market.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Effen unbelievable. Just absolutely silly.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

It's Bear Squeezing time!

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures trading range
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

zstock7
13 years ago

buying a whole lot of HPQ longs options, today. don't you just love the dow 30?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The market might be rallying but Goldman isn't…

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

SPX double top at 1060, or going to break through?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looks like it Woody… as we are forming a bull flag now.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

On what??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

The bull flag has now been played out Jim. It was on the SPX. Now I don't see any pattern.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Were you referring to the transition from the 26th throught 27th. Bull flag on 26th

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

No, just the intraday movement on the 10 minute chart from today only.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks. It looks like its still in play??

Caveman
Caveman
13 years ago

As Red said, GS is down (currently 1.7% !). Also look at big cap techs: aapl, msft, csco, all very weak. Big sellers are raising cash into this sham ramp up. Note gold also up.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Looks like the computers in permanent buy mode today, with no reason or sense whatsoever.

anoopsan
13 years ago
shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Pump it, pump, pump it. Just unrelenting today. You can see over the last few weeks that the pumps have gotten more aggressive and violent in nature.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Buy programs may accelerate at 3pm

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Yes, it's “stick it to the bears time” right now.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

these kinda days technicals are just plain worthless. market turns faster than you can react.

Gap up, tank, Bernie talks and euphoria.

Weiss group just came out w/ a buy spy recommendation.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Weiss group isn't so “wise” in my opinion.

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