Rally Time?

By Red, on August 25th, 2010

Video Update for Friday…

Red

————————————————————————————————-

or just a relief bounce…

After selling off for 4 days straight, the market needed a breather, and that’s exactly what we got today. As for tomorrow, as long as the initial claims and continuing claims numbers meet or beat expectations, the market should go a little higher.

I’m not saying that it will for sure, but it’s likely to push up some as the 60 minute chart is in rally mode now. The 107 spy area is the likely target, where it will find resistance again from the larger falling channel. If it makes it back up there, then I expect that area to stop the rally and then continue the selling next week (and possibly Friday too?).

The GDP number on Friday could be a non-event, and then the market would just trade sideways to up a little. But, if it’s really bad, then we could see a huge sell off on Friday. There is no way to tell right now, but the trend is still down. We just have to wait out this relief rally for a few days.

So, if you are short, just be prepared for a small bear shakeout before another leg down occurs. There is still nothing bullish in these charts, but the market has come down pretty far and pretty quickly. So, a bounce is to be expected. It could last just for tomorrow, or a few more days? There is no way to tell just yet, but I don’t think it will last into next week.

Good luck to all the bulls and bears out there…

Red

Weekend Update - US To Default On Debt

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

Dabama here….OK lets figure out how to save America.

Chorus of PPT actors—Sure what you got in mind boss?

Well I am thinking that drawing a line in the sand worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan, that we draw a line on the SPX and defend it.

PTT hehe, we know hwo to defend it…we just make the hush hush call to Goldman, Morgan, and those newish guys, and they crank the futures…we just have to give them free money, that they can pump with, and they can also lend that money back to us to Support T-bills also. High five guys!!! We save the country, the market, and our debt all in one shot!!!!!

Dabama: OK good, so where should we draw that line….

PPT–deep thought…………hey how about 1040, you know, like the tax form….yeah yeah,,,,,

Dabama: great and easy to remember, OK code word for da pump boyz is 1040 taxes. Just call them and say hey did you file your 1040 tax form yet….it’s perfect

High fives, high fives.

Charts at
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/dabama-here-defend-our-country-boyz.html
http://www.instigator928.blogspot.com/ Instigator928

I enjoyed your analysis. 1070 or not…we're going down.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks… I try.

This

I enjoy your commentary and look forward to your analysis on Utube.

Thanks
Geccko23

The stock indices have a similarity to the days leading up to the flash crash in regards to its bollinger bands They have hit their lower downtrending BBs and are starting to hug them. The last two days action are mimicking the May 4, 5th days as the BBs are just starting to widen. This is the start of a new move and it appears that a counter -trend rally can begin from this formation. Even if there isn't a crash tomorrow, the indices should continue to hug the decling BBs. Only a complete close inside the BBs would be the first sign of a new rally. And this brings me back to the trader with a great track record the last few months. He waits for a bubble to form with the widening BBs and then waits for the BBs to contract with the indices down at BBs before he takes a counter-trend trade (from what I gather). The BBs are just now starting to widen. I also went back to the 1987 crash, and the market started its crash leg in a similar position. (basically after 2 piercings beneath a downtrending lower BB). Its hard to believe a crash can occur with such a high Mc Summation reading but it happened with the flash crash on May 6. Oil and the currencies are just approaching their lower BBs although the currencies haven't really tagged them yet. Euro is currently doing well in afterhours which would have a positive effect on the markets tomorrow but that could change by the morning.

Geccko23

I meant it is unlikely a counter-trend rally can begin with the indices just now starting to tag their downtrending BBs. Maurice Walker has a BB chart on page 3 of his charts………I also went back and checked the Sept 2001 waterfall decline and the SP put up a similar bar on Sept 10. August 26 is also an equidistant 56 days to July 1 low with May 6 flash crash day. (I liked the Aug. 25 numerology better). It also 66 cds from the Summer Solstice high on June 21. July 1 was 66 cds from the April 26 high. And of course it is a major Tdate although T Theory Guru is supposedly disavowing it now. (although as a high) A new 13 day cycle also might come into play tomorrow although it originally was a low cycle (that connects back to May 6) but the last cycle was the August 9 high.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

2 other DOW 30’s BA,UTX—If there’s a a price channel change there, I can’t see it.
go long at their last lows, looks to be worth trying.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Lots of overhead resistance San. So even if the market can get back in that falling wedge, I don't think it can hold it too long.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Trend is clearly down. If key levels are not taken out by the bulls this will be another sell on rally.
But we have to wait and see if the rally happens

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Closed the rest of my DRN position around 42. (bought at 38.32)

Currently long oil via UCO

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Anna went long yesterday too Dreadwin, so that was a good call. I'm sure she'll be looking to close out those longs today as well, as I can't see this rally lasting into tomorrow.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I think everyone is scared of the GDP number. The max I expected from DRN on this move is to go from 38 to 42.80. I feel like I've captured most of that move, and now will look for other trades.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Smart move Dreadwin… you are a smart trader.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Thanks! To make it in this market recently, one has to be completely disciplined and pragmatic. I think that the REITs are a smoking ruin of fail, but I will happily take that trade if I can make money on it.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Closed em all at open cept one

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You going short again now?

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

yes

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I closed my long oil position (UCO), too. I'm looking to go short on a bounce.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I don't blame you. The vix is putting in a bull flag, gs is still falling from the morning high, aapl is putting a bear flag, and xom is struggling too… with a topping tail on the current candle.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I entered into the UCO trade after-hours yesterday (8.63). The rationale was that oil makes a large part of it's move in after-hours. As oil kept going up, I kept increasing my stop and finally got taken out at 8.88 (+3%). It was supposed to be a low-risk trade, so I wasn't going to push it.

jimhobson

3 % improvement initial claims from a very bad level and the market is euphoric??

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It was more based on the technicals Jim, as the market just needed a reason to bounce. Let's see if they can continue all day with GDP out tomorrow… LOL

jimhobson

Buyers do not appear to be jumping in?? I was going to wait till above 1062 to add to shorts.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, and the 60, 15, and 5 minute charts don't have a lot of room to go on the upside before rolling back down. I really can't see this lasting into tomorrow either Jim.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

GS looks like it's got an inverted H&S on the 10 minute chart. If it plays out, it could help rally the market. However, the vix is falling and is almost at gap fill, which should give it support. Apple has filled it's gap and is stuck there.

Basically, the market could breakout to the upside… or fail and come back down. However, it's running out of time as the 60 and 15 minute charts are going into overbought territory now.

It's hard to say what's going to happen at this point? I just don't think it will have enough juice to breakout today. Maybe tomorrow if the GDP numbers come in good? Who knows?

jimhobson

Something just turned it down??

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yep… rally no more! LOL

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

GS, XOM, and AAPL are falling too gang. Looks like the rally might have ended?
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

break 1050 and we fall hard

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I take it you are short now…

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

S&P 500 Trading near support area
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Is the market open on Monday? Isn't a holiday coming up soon? I forget what day it is…

Sir Woody Hackswell

Labour day is first mon in Sept, no? 2 weeks if that's right.

jimhobson

Vix is not supporting any direction at the moment. Hard to say where we go now.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, volume is also light now… which usually means the market will have an upside bias.

Sir Woody Hackswell

Upside bias, or at least just protecting SPX 1050, methinks.

jimhobson

This weak volume and anemic vix is going to allow a break to the upside at 2pm or 3pm ET
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

There's no volume at all today. The market will likely go higher into the close today, if it doesn't breakdown soon. It's forming a bull flag (weak one, but with light volume it could play out) on the 60 minute chart now.

We might be doing an ABC move up to 1070 or so, with this pull back being wave B, and wave C to follow tomorrow (assuming the GDP number isn't horrible?).
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

IWM, has that clearly in a downtrend, middle bb band… good for shorting. These things usually have 3 possible short entries. a little higher than today, 1. 5% higher or right now
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones hits the trend line
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

IWM thoughts, 3 to 5 days out.
http://zstock7.com/wp- content/uploads/2010/08/iwm-8-26.jpg
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Anna has a 104.81 FP gang… so that could be our downside target today?

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

another round trip day
rodders

Red, I know you have mentioned FP before, what is FP? And how did she come up with that level?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

FP means Fake Print, or ghost print, or casper. They are targets TPTB put out there to tell their friends where they are going to take the market.

rodders

Thank you, good to know.

http://www.instigator928.blogspot.com/ Instigator928

Looks like:
PRIMARY 3
INTERMEDIATE 1
MINOR 3
MINUTE [iii]
Minuette v
Subminuette 1

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Sounds good too be… LOL! I can't wait until it's all wave 3's!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

getting close here

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

To what? Bouncing back up, or falling off a cliff? LOL

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

104.80 we got 104.88
Sir Woody Hackswell

Will SOMEONE fulfill my wish and make these !@$#@$ markets fall off a cliff? K Thx!
rodders

Red, that was not a good close, let see what tomorrow brings. On the daily(spx), the bollinger bands are expanding, the RSI could still go lower. You may be right we are going lower. Fingers crossed! If it at closed at 1040 that would be an even better close.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, and just briefly looking at the charts, the 60, 15, and 5 minute charts are pointing back down now. Not good for a rally, that's for sure. But, who knows? Maybe they will spin the GDP to a positive number, and up and up and away we go!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall2/folde…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I see the FP on your chart. It looks like it happened at the open. I'm assuming that's why you posted the chart…

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

no that was it it was 104.81 and this is H&S

jimhobson

The upper tail hit your 105.50 I think.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

adding more spy puts

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I do wonder about the GDP tomorrow? If it's viewed positive, will it rally the market, or are we done? It looks like there is more selling coming, but the light volume is puzzling?

jimhobson

Bernie is cooking the books up at Golf and Tennis as we speak.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL…

Yes, this could be a wave B down in an ABC up to the 1070 area? Or, we could be in a wave 3 down? Hard to say?

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

might see it tomorrow just trading according to charts not news

jimhobson

Wow what a stick 1052.5, hit 200 on 5 minute now what??

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We roll back over it looks like…

jimhobson

Nice call Anna. You could not have been closer than that.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
TMG2010

Red is going to have a field day this evening! Looks like his call was Golden. As Red would say “Watch out below”.
http://twitter.com/2wires Robert

2 more days for the bears to feast. ……that is all………………….
http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Went long with a 1/2 position in DRN after hours (40.20, but I could have gotten in for $40 if I waited). There are a gazillion reasons to be bearish but this chart is suggesting something else:

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I won't rule out a move up, as it's certain possible. But, I did notice on that chart that the MACD's had crossed over and were pointing up at the previous black candle you have circle.

However, right now the MACD's are still pointing down on the black candle we had today. That's a big difference and shouldn't be ignored. If today's daily chart was showing any signs of pointing back up then I'd agree with you that we might rally, but the comparison in that chart isn't equal in my opinion.

But good luck with it Dread… I do wish you well. Maybe it will show some signs of turning up tomorrow? I don't know? Anything is possible.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

The MACD is definitely in a weaker position this time around. I was mainly focused on the fractal pattern of the candlesticks. Candlestick theory generally is unconcerned with MACD or RSI.

Go here if you want to explore more candlestick theory:

http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?Comp…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I try to look at candlestick patterns too, but I like to combine them with the other TA's as well. I just think that the larger time frames are now a lot more negative then they were back then… especially since the market is now below the moving averages instead of above them.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Take a look at the daily chart for SPG (the leading REIT). Yes, MACD is bearish, but RSI is over 50. A clear 5 waves up from July, and an ABC down from the high with a shallow retrace. The C wave really does look finished. Price bounced of the confluence of the lower bollinger band and the 50 day moving average. I just don't see anything bearish there. Next stop is likely to be the upper bollinger band.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Do have a link to the chart handy?
http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Here ya go:

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That chart do look like it could roll back up. And, it's trading above the 20 and 50 moving averages, while the spx isn't. Big difference between the two. On top of that, it's hitting the low BB level too… which could give it support.

That whole move up from 75 to 94, and then down to the current price… looks like a bull flag too me. So yes, I agree with you on that chart. It does look bullish.
AS2009

Mkt follows SPG – I have heard that before …
Mnytzfan30

It looks like its topping to me. BBs are tightening. Dropped to the lower BB and now bouncing to midline/ 20 day average where it most likely repelled. It's probably lagging the overall market by a few days.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

New video update. Refresh page.
Geccko23

20 day average will be dropping below the 50 soon. Of course, it's a lagging indicator so the market should be well south when that happens.
Even better news, it appears that T Theory Guru has extended his major T, that was due to expire, into next week joining the multitude of other gurus calling for a rally into the end of August.
Nice down day with negative breadth to keep the McSummation declining while also allowing the BBs to continue to widen.
Jaywiz is my newest contrarian indicator. Called for the market to drop 20% on Monday. Now says there will be no crash. Had today as a positive day with it continuing to rally into Monday. Last I saw oil was off its high for the day quite a bit. Todays bar is similar to bars seen before melt-ups in June and July but on those days breadth was positive and the ramp-up was already beginning in after-hours which I haven't seen so far. (but haven't checked in a few hours)
bigbadwolfusa

Wow!!! you have to listen to Tony on this….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOfRLINVqcg&feat…

jimhobson

Common sense. Nice to hear.

Thanks for posting.

Sir Woody Hackswell

“The government revised its reading of second-quarter gross domestic product to 1.6%. That was down from the previously reported 2.4%, but still topped expectations.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting economic activity to slow to 1.4%. “

… And the futures markets are rejoicing at this? =blink=
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Sir Woody Hackswell

MMm!!! Nice waterfall! Keep it up! W00t!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That might be all we get today Woody? It's a double bottom now and since the GDP and Ben's speech is over, it's likely to rise back up later today.

Sir Woody Hackswell

Hoover DAM! PPT is at the wheel again, eh?
newbear

That's why I went long and staying long.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

So far you are right Newbear, but I just think there might be one more flush out before a small rally. We'll see… the day ain't over yet.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

What absolute garbage.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well gang, we knew that this could happen. This is one of those times where the charts don't matter. The crooks are going to buy it up and rally it… period!

newbear

I put my $$$ on this.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Do you know someone at Goldman Sachs? LOL

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I think the IYT chart I posted last night showed pretty good fractal evidence that we were going to rally today.

Today was a great day for bulls and bears. If you sold the rally yesterday at 1060ish and covered this morning, you banked coin. If you bought on weakness yesterday or today and sold today, you banked coin. I did!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes Dread…

It looked like they both played out. Down to the double bottom and then a rally. At this point however, the market needs to break out of this channel if it wants to rally next week too. We'll see, but I think the upside is limited.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Red, I think we have been in a complex wave 4 all week. Lots of ABCs. I think we are going to retrace half of this gain by Monday.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's a lot of whipsaw action, designed to frustrate the bears, and give the bulls false hope. In the end, they will both lose… LOL

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Since today is Friday, and all the bad news is out now, and the fact that the rest of the day is likely to have light volume… I'd say that this would be the perfect day for the market to break out of the falling channel.

This assumes that they want to rally the market now, and this isn't just a head fake? It's a nice double bottom now around 1040, so it might hold today. The key is if they break out of the falling channel or not by the end of the day.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

I don't see the VIX going above 29 for a few days.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's at gap fill right now, so it might not fall too much further. But, it might not rise either?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Man, the GDP and Bernankes' speech must have been wonderful…

jimhobson

he said it.

he will print money to purchase securities to prop the market.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Effen unbelievable. Just absolutely silly.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's Bear Squeezing time!

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones futures trading range
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

buying a whole lot of HPQ longs options, today. don't you just love the dow 30?
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The market might be rallying but Goldman isn't…
Sir Woody Hackswell

SPX double top at 1060, or going to break through?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like it Woody… as we are forming a bull flag now.

jimhobson

On what??

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The bull flag has now been played out Jim. It was on the SPX. Now I don't see any pattern.

jimhobson

Were you referring to the transition from the 26th throught 27th. Bull flag on 26th
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No, just the intraday movement on the 10 minute chart from today only.
jimhobson

Thanks. It looks like its still in play??

Caveman

As Red said, GS is down (currently 1.7% !). Also look at big cap techs: aapl, msft, csco, all very weak. Big sellers are raising cash into this sham ramp up. Note gold also up.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Looks like the computers in permanent buy mode today, with no reason or sense whatsoever.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

S&P 500 resistance level
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Pump it, pump, pump it. Just unrelenting today. You can see over the last few weeks that the pumps have gotten more aggressive and violent in nature.
jimhobson

Buy programs may accelerate at 3pm

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, it's “stick it to the bears time” right now.

jimhobson

these kinda days technicals are just plain worthless. market turns faster than you can react.

Gap up, tank, Bernie talks and euphoria.

Weiss group just came out w/ a buy spy recommendation.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Weiss group isn't so “wise” in my opinion.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like oil rallied this market up today as xom is up over a dollar, but gs is still negative, and aapl is barely holding it's head in positive territory.

That doesn't bod well for the overall market rally we are have now. Next week should be another down week, if those leaders can't get it up.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I see a 106.20 FP, so that's likely where we will close today.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

The most we've been able to down tick all day is 2-3 ES points at best. Even every small dip is being bought hard by the bots.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Today was clearly a day of manipulation. The charts showed that the market was ready to roll back over again, but the free money ignored them.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Guess everyone is holding into the weekend. No selling whatsoever. Do the big guys know something coming out this weekend?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I think Monday will be another UP day, but not like today was…

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I am short via a small DRV position over the weekend, Red.

DRN did not take out the high that it set yesterday on a day when it really really should have. Therefore, I consider today's low a wave 1 down and the rest of the day as a wave 2 retrace. I'm sticking with it until the market proves me wrong.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

almost 30 point ES rally. Are you effen kidding me.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DZHYPHJOTUYILR6IUU3QS4UB3M shaan kapoor

Its not manipulation at all….yea right! All 3 major indices closing with same gain on the day. Tell me how often that happens:

Dow Jones
10,150.65 +164.84 (1.65%)
S&P 500
1,064.59 +17.37 (1.66%)
Nasdaq
2,153.63 +34.94 (1.65%)
Diablos

Possible EW Count… Still alive…

http://screencast.com/t/N2ZiY2FmY2Yt
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://twitter.com/2wires Robert

Thank God for stops. Classic manipulation indeed…….We were overbought somewhat. Should see some selling Monday since all the bulls are giddy now…………..Have a great weekend all…..

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I wouldn't expect it to just fall off a cliff on Monday morning though Robert. The put/call ratio is heavy on the put side, and that level needs to come down first.

I could see another run up on Monday morning happening, and then maybe closing flat with a doji. But don't expect them to just tank it that quickly.

But, I do agree with you that it won't last too long… Good luck to all of us (especially us bears… LOL)

http://forex-chart-analysis-and-a-cat.blogspot.com/ forex-cat

Good video.

Jed Thrust

You know, in a perverse way this makes sense.

Given that the USA is (technically) bankrupt, Bernanky (sic) has only two choices:

1. Become a statesman, admit the situation and allow America (and in the process, most other Western nations) to default; or

2. Print like crazy to delay the inevitable. In the meantime he and his friends can become even more rich and the eventual problem falls into someone elses lap.

To paraphrase James Clark, a statesman is a politican that thinks of his grandchildren. Not one person in Washington is thinking beyond the next election…

Geccko23

Distancing oneself from the market action of yesterday, things don't appear really that bad. None of the indices, Dow,SP,Nasdaq filled what I viewed as a breakaway gap from earlier in the week. And all of them including the Russell 2000 did not close above the close 4 periods earlier, an occurrence normally during a bull flip on a newly created rally. Plus we got a box formation similar to the late April early May highs the past four days where the last four bars appear to be contained in a box like range. It is especially evident in the Nasdaq. And despite bullish hysteria yesterday, it came out that Intel lowered its guidance and gross margin forecast despite proclaiming excellent guidance for the rest of the year last month. $SOX index has already broken its July low.
I went back to the 1987 charts and the last up day before the 4 day meltdown into the crash, the white upcandle like todays was completely inside the BBs (did not touch the lower one) and it approached the close of the bar 4 periods earlier but did not close above it. The previous day's bar had pierced the lower BB. (in 2010 this was 2 days ago—2010 is lagging 1987–things are playing out slower—as Hank Wiernicki mentioned its 2010 weekly vs. 1987 daily). The next day the market collapsed down to the lower BB which should be in 1030s area. I see Sept 3 as an important low date so there is time for things to play out.
Bulls were very giddy yesterday and don't seem to be worried about holding over the weekend or terrified by the ominous forebodings of the Hindenburg Omen (despite how everyone claims that everyone is bearish). At important bottoms, one doesn't see bulls so actively jumping into the market. It appears they see an inverse H+S.
The market is holding up also to allow its 20 day average to catch up to it. There are still plenty of early August dates at the high involved in the calculation to keep it from dropping steeply but it is a few days away from crossing a downtrending 50 day average so I expect the market should plummet before that cross occurs. (as it last did at the May 12 post flash crash high)

Geccko23

Russell 2000 daily did close above the close 4 periods ago but did not close above that day's high. On the weekly it formed a hanging man. It also did reach its July low compared to the other indices so 1987 might be more applicable since in 1987 the final bounce came off the September low. Russell also has rallied for three days and its 20 day average has crossed below the 50 and is close enough to the $RUT that I don't think it is necessary for any furthur rally unless we just put in an intermediate low (which I put a very low probability of that having occurred).
SP weekly has the 20 crossing 50 period right now and it is the verge of happening for crude oil. This is a very rare occurrence which is virtually almost certain to be reversed in the near term. (unless the bulls are very lucky as a certain troll might say—-Cano is just crushing Zobrist by the way).
Back to bull flips, the flip usually occurs on a massive white candle and we had examples in late may and off the June 8 low and at the July low. Yesterday's bar when it was an easy position to do so was a massive failure.

Geccko23

Another correction. I should have written: it is a virtual certainty that the 20 week crossing 50 week averge will not be reversed. There have only been 7 crosses since 1994 and only one fakeout in 2004 when a sideways 20 week crossed below a rising 50 week and they briefly hugged each other before the 20 week rose again. This must be the part where following MAs is meaningless. I like this anti-intellectual approach to stock investing.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

Making charts from raw data, how old fashioned!

Here is a special treat for you. I haven’t updated this chart since january, note that the data is already a bit old, June 30. Seems like just lately that alot more money has flowed to bonds.

Short and sweet: BONDS ARE A TRAP!

All the HBB financial adviser bullshit about portfolio re balancing, shifting your bond/equity asset allocation, etc, it just that, a bunch of bull. Bonds are a promise to pay, a paper asset.

Read this chart carefully, it’s a real winner. Especially if you are holding a bunch of bonds and feeling safe.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/mutual-fund-money-flows-special-treat.html

Check out this link to an interesting 40 page review of “Retirement Assets”. I think this is important because it represents 35% of all wealth. And that means it’s a big target, and HBB want’s it. They don’t want just to control it, they want IT. I expect this to be the next big battlefield. Financial ogliarchs will craft up legislation that gives them more access to your retirement savings. Here are some ideas—they force a percent of your retirement account into safe bonds “for your own good” further blowing up the bond bubble….they sell off at the top on their own bonds and leave you hanging on to a pile of shit. Or T-bills “Support America” law…works the same as bonds, they use your money to feed a bubble, they sell off at the top, short it in fact, and leave you with a pile of shit. See how that works?

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/mutual-fund-money-flows-special-treat.html
raised_by_wolves

Non-TOS users, is this /SI (silver futures) fake print on your charts? I'm curious whether this is a TOS-specific mess up.

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That print doesn't look Fake? What's so usual about a dip like that?

raised_by_wolves

Maybe my silver futures comparison indicator just got seriously messed up after the latest TOS update.

http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

UNG, those guys got to be some really bad hedge traders. The way they trade, they are going to bankrupt UNG itself. SEC needs to stop by that place—-oh wait, as long as there is major wrong doing going on, the SEC doesn't stop by your place.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Weekend update in now up…
Pingback: CLIFFORD
Pingback: WALTER
Pingback: Gibson Guitars
Pingback: Gold Eagle Coin
Pingback: Memory Foam Mattress Reviews
Pingback: Fast Cars for Sale
Pingback: Alarm Clocks
Pingback: Minecraft Texture Packs
Pingback: facebookofsex
Pingback: Skimmer Weirs
Pingback: download apk
Pingback: Parker Pens
Pingback: Puss In Boots Full Movie
Pingback: proof set coin
Pingback: uncirculated graded dollars
Pingback: large cent coin
Pingback: collecting gold coin
Pingback: Presidential Coin
Pingback: betainvites.com
Pingback: cookie
Pingback: Yabas
Pingback: reverse phone call lookup
Pingback: facebookofsex
Pingback: click here
Pingback: click submit
Pingback: click here
Pingback: free ipad apps
Pingback: Von Fioretti
Pingback: site
Pingback: vitamin d effects
Pingback: Cassey Laface
Pingback: anxiety attacks symptoms
Pingback: reverse phone call lookup
Pingback: Minecraft Texture Packs
Pingback: chicken recipes for dinner
Pingback: Wii Homebrew
Pingback: vouchers and codes
Pingback: herbal remedies
Pingback: health articles
Pingback: psychic interactive
Pingback: Anti Aging
Pingback: discount office supplies
Pingback: discount office equipment
Pingback: digital tv switchover date
Pingback: jwoww tanning lotion
Pingback: natural swimming pools
Pingback: vélo enfant
Pingback: hoodia pills
Pingback: tin ceiling panels
Pingback: montregps.org
Pingback: office photocopiers
Pingback: wholesale cell phones
Pingback: montre automatique homme
Pingback: whiteceramicwatch.net
Pingback: cardiofrequencemetre polar
Pingback: srs visa agent in adelaide
Pingback: disque dur interne 2.5
Pingback: Online-FlashGames.info
Pingback: white ceramic watches
Pingback: individuelle haftnotizen
Pingback: Social Bookmarking
Pingback: four micro onde combiné
Pingback: junk silver
Pingback: cutting edges
Pingback: kinky sex
Pingback: invest liberty reserve
Pingback: Great Site
Pingback: online gaming
Pingback: Living Trust San Jose
Pingback: Criminal Attorney Nashvile
Pingback: FantaZ - Online Gaming & Make Money
Pingback: heating spares
Pingback: naples florida real estate
Pingback: montreal podiatrist
Pingback: Home Acne Treatment
Pingback: where to buy pepper spray
Pingback: skeletonwatchmart.com
Pingback: automatic watch
Pingback: site
Pingback: montre hello kitty
Pingback: office supplies uk
Pingback: guess montre femme
Pingback: http://www.caissondebasse.fr/
Pingback: Your Drug ID Info Guy
Pingback: bain de soleil
Pingback: Liposuction
Pingback: Gemstone Selection
Pingback: skeleton watches
Pingback: cool caravans
Pingback: photocopier kent
Pingback: DUI Lawyers Tucson
Pingback: tente camping
Pingback: cp132sc takamine
Pingback: autoradio dvd gps
Pingback: glaciere electrique
Pingback: bottes pas cher
Pingback: indian head coin
Pingback: cliquez ici
Pingback: friteuse sans huile seb actifry
Pingback: white watch
Pingback: http://filipinaintroductions.com/2011/check-out-the-new-iron-man-3/
Pingback: reflex numerique canon
Pingback: echelle telescopique
Pingback: smartburn with hoodia
Pingback: More Information
Pingback: robot menager multifonction
Pingback: whitewatchesdirect.com
Pingback: Egg Pudding Recipe
Pingback: lit parapluie
Pingback: plancha gaz pas cher
Pingback: Degenerative Joint Disease
Pingback: tireuse a biere
Pingback: Cream Cheese Chicken Recipes
Pingback: http://www.montresfemmes.net/
Pingback: sac a main pas cher
Pingback: swiss automatic watches
Pingback: robot multifonction
Pingback: http://www.gpsmoto.org/
Pingback: trampolineavecfilet.fr
Pingback: French Fried Onion Chicken
Pingback: online dating site builder
Pingback: kate middleton engagement ring
Pingback: http://www.piscineautoportante.net/
Pingback: telephone fixe
Pingback: cliquez ici
Pingback: comparatif disque dur externe
Pingback: sorbetiere philips
Pingback: facebookofsex
Pingback: telephone fixe sans fil
Pingback: http://www.sacochehomme.org/
Pingback: imprimantelasercouleur.net
Pingback: Vaterschaftsfeststellung
Pingback: liberty reserve
Pingback: http://www.tablesbasses.org/
Pingback: mens white watches
Pingback: decodeur tnt
Pingback: http://www.montreautomatique.net/
Pingback: montres-homme.org
Pingback: aspirateur-balai.net
Pingback: site
Pingback: barbecue gaz
Pingback: balai vapeur
Pingback: Paul
Pingback: The Big Bang Theory - Season 5 - Episode 11
Pingback: Patrick
Pingback: site
Pingback: barbecue electrique
Pingback: 1927 standing liberty quarter
Pingback: breast
Pingback: ceramic watches
Pingback: good dating sites
Pingback: friteuse sans huile tefal
Pingback: cliquez ici
Pingback: Iron Man 3
Pingback: Iron Man 3
Pingback: facebook of sex
Pingback: montre gps garmin 110
Pingback: siège auto bébé
Pingback: http://www.montregps.org/montre-gps-running/
Pingback: Homepage
Pingback: buy targeted facebook fans uk
Pingback: cafetière expresso
Pingback: friteuse electrique
Pingback: site
Pingback: plancha électrique
Pingback: Give the Gift of Personalized Jewelry
Pingback: www
Pingback: Iron Man 3
Pingback: weight loss tips
Pingback: Sanyo Repair Tech
Pingback: Good Reasons to Give Personalize Jewelry
Pingback: rasoir electrique
Pingback: forex trading pdf
Pingback: diet foods

Rally Time?

FEEDS

SEARCH THE BLOG

Feed The Dragon

Google Translator

Calendar

Blogroll

Pages

Indicator Sites

Helpful Information

Stock Charts

Red Pill Sites

Blue Pill Sites

Astrology Moon Cycles

Social Networks

Polls

Rally Time?

FEEDS

SEARCH THE BLOG

Feed The Dragon

Google Translator

Popular Posts

Calendar

Blogroll

Pages

Indicator Sites

Helpful Information

Stock Charts

Red Pill Sites

Blue Pill Sites

Astrology Moon Cycles

Social Networks

Polls