Is The Short Term Top In?

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Mr. TopStep thinks so, and so do I...

While we could go up to the 1160-1170 level, I still think the market will go lower into the end of this week.  We have 2 FP's to the downside.  The first one is the 112.59 spy print, and then the 105.39 print from a month ago.  We also have a gap open at 1105 spx that will also be a magnet for the market this week.

While I'm not saying that we will go to the 105.39 print before the end of the week, I do believe it's going to be hit within the next couple of weeks.  Maybe a move down to the 112.59 level, and then one more push up to the 1160-1170 spx area next week?  Who knows?

The weekly chart is still pointing up, and hasn't rolled over yet.  So, another push higher is still in the cards.  If we go down to the 112.59 print this week, and then rally back up next week, that would probably form a nice negative diverence on the daily chart, putting in 2 histogram towers (with the 2nd tower being lower then the first one... of course).

I'm not sure what the trigger will be, other then just an overbought market.  Maybe that's enough?  I don't think they really need a reason to sell off to the 112.59 level, but if they don't go back up to the 1160-1170 level... and instead continue selling off to the 105.39 level, then a "reason" for the sell off will be needed.

What could it be?  Some more serious dirt coming out on JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs?  How about the default of the international debt the US owes the rest of the world?  Maybe another false flag event like the BP spill or 911?  Who knows?  Maybe nothing happens, as it's all just speculation at this point.

I just wouldn't be caught long this market right now, that's all.  I still believe this rally is 95%-100% done, and a major turn down is just a week or two away... and possibly a day or two?  Evil lurks in the dark, and we just can't see it or predict when it will show up.  But we knows it's close by, so we should carry some protection (aka... some "put's" in case it surprises us).

Today also put in a bear flag on many time frames, and could play out tomorrow if the initial claims and continuing claims data isn't too positive.  We expect the government to lie about the numbers of course, but what if they are still bad?  At this point, with the market up for the last 3 weeks, I think it's going to be a "sell the fact" event... no matter what the numbers are (unless they are really good, which is possible with the "magic eraser" that Bernanke owns).

Regardless, we are within spitting distance of the cliff (as old country boy might say... LOL).

Red

36 COMMENTS

  1. McClellan Oscillator even gets those wacky numbers. It closed at 12.212 and the summation index finished at 3699.19 today…….The Cramer code featured 10-24 not 10-23 as I mentioned earlier. That was a panic day in 1929 but the black days came on 10-28/10-29. …….So far nothing interesting happening in the overnight session.

  2. Interesting…
    It seems as though everything has gotten a wee bit crazier than in 2007-08. For some reason, when I look at what most of the world markets are doing, Shanghai back in Jan 2008 comes to mind for some reason.
    The only difference is that the markets have gotten significantly more out of whack. The macro numbers tomorrow could be behind what is actually happening (still positive, although extremely unlikely), but if that happened and the markets rallied, I could only imagine the future losses that would be guaranteed.
    When the US markets were drifting downward in early 2009, I also wondered what people were thinking.
    Very, very odd…

  3. red, i get bored with the time pass they doing with the setting of reality in market i think they paln to change the history which tells us that sep. probably a down month…………………
    dont know will we going for correction in oct. or not………

  4. probably fill the gap now…

    red likes the phrase “fall off a cliff” haha

    I also think I’m listening to Bill Paxton when I watch his videos

  5. Well, Goldman and JP Morgan are still down, but Apple is positive. The VIX as come back down quite a bit, and might even “gap fill” from this morning. This might be all we bears are going to see today?

  6. That looks like the chart Dreadwin posted a month back. It appears too be geared for more of a long term traders’ perspective. But, it certainly helps to know the overall trend. Thanks…

  7. I am liking this action. Russell 2000 just broke beneath its intraday low. Currently in bear flip mode. breadth very negative so definitely McOscill goes negative / no bounce at the 0 line. Very good for follow through momentum. Just loaded the boat again mostly inverse Nasdaq. ……
    This rally had a limited shelf life with the expiration date about to come due based on an esoteric indicator. This time I really had to fight my gut to put on these positions. (I put some on the last few days also)….
    Red, your buddy Ron Walker is getting quite exuberant on the bearish side; he’s starting to compete with Anthony Allyn as most outlandish bear. Check the annotations on his public charts. It’s pretty hilarious.

  8. McClellan Oscillator never went negative during those 3 day pullbacks in July-August rally nor came close to the o line.

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