Weekend Update – Thanksgiving In Dubai

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Monday Update...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXyP3i38Fvs)

Red

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Confusion, Confusion, and More Confusion...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXegHADGI-s)

That is the what the market is doing to most traders right now.  It's no secret of course, as that's what "The Powers That Be" are trying to do... confuse both the bulls and bears, while secretly stealing their money.

So where does that leave for next week?  Probably just as confused as this week was.  Last week gave us a nice bear flag that fail to play out, as the bogus GM IPO was used to rally the market and rob the bears.  Now I guess everyone is long again, and expecting the usual "Bullish Monday"... plus a bullish week because of the coming Thanksgiving holiday.

When was the Dubai news released last year?  Answer: Thanksgiving!  Interesting... huh?  Certainly makes you wonder if they might pull another fast one on this Thanksgiving?  Most people have completely forgotten about that, as TPTB had the entire holiday weekend to calm the market from the news, which keep the market from tanking.

Is there another Dubai just hiding in the closet, trying to get out?  I don't know, but the charts look a whole lot more bearish right now then they did last year at the same time period.  Another major news announcement like that right now would cause a whole lot more damage to the market I believe... and recovery would be a lot longer the one "holiday weekend".

Well, that's all just speculation... don't make any trades on it.  It wasn't like it crashed after that news anyway.  In fact I think it only dropped about 30 points or so.  But a nice 30 point drop on SPX right now would certainly be nice to have, as long as I was positioned short of course.  LOL.

Moving on...

Let's try to figure out what might happen next week.  The daily chart shows the spx as hitting a necktie of resistance as the 10 MA (currently at 1201.92) is getting ready to crossover the 20 MA (1198.14), which is a double dose of bears holding back the bulls.  We have a similar setup on the Q's for the Nasdaq, the Financial's, and the NYSE daily charts.

The 60 minute chart is overbought and losing steam on the shorter time frame MACD period's, but the longer time frame seems to be turning back up from oversold territory.  This doesn't help us out at all.  Basically, it's a "neutral" position right now.

The 30 minute chart is also at a neutral level, but looking like it wants to go up.  The 15 minute chart similar to all the others... neutral.  Not much point covering the 5 minute chart, so I won't.

As for the weekly and monthly charts... no clues there either.  We could continue up a little higher, or rollover right now, with the current high holding.

The dollar seems to be backing down a little, with another move up still expected to come.  The timing is unknown of course, as it could fall a few more days and just chop around forming a base to launch higher from next month.  The VIX could also fall back down a little lower, and chop around a few days before moving higher again.

This sets up December for being an ugly month, which is totally opposite of what most December months are.  But, remember that last October and September were historically negative months... which just the opposite happened this time around.  Will it be the same for December?

I can't answer that of course, but I'll simply point out that the charts will support a sell off next month... but I'm sure they could be manipulated a little longer allowing the market to stay up until January of next year.  After all, this entire rally from March of 2009 has been one big manipulation.  What makes you thinks it's suddenly going to change now?

Just because the charts say we rollover and sell off in December doesn't mean it's going to happen.  I'd actually be shocked if they tanked it during the Christmas season.  But, that's exactly what they like to do... shock everyone!

Ok, as for Monday...

Just speculating here, but since the pattern over the last few day (on the 60 and 30 minute charts) looks like a "cup and handle", I'd say that we could gap up on Bullish Monday (to hit all the stops of the bears of course), and quickly fall back down all day and close negative.  This would probably push the 60 minute chart (and the shorter time frames too) into oversold territory and allow Tuesday to rally back up.  (However, if they don't gap it up Monday, I still expect it to close down on the day as the 60 minute needs to reset itself before attempting to rally higher again).

Then a continuation of that rally into Wednesday, with a little profit taking into the close as traders leave early for the holiday's.  Then the gangsters can steal all the bulls money on the half day of trading Friday, with some other negative news, only to be rallied back up over the 3 day weekend... or not?  (Then a nice wave 3 down would start, instead the completion of an ABC, with one more wave 5 up left that should end in January).

Yes... sometimes history does repeat itself.  Of course I'm speculating here, and don't really expect everything to play out exactly like that.  I could be totally wrong on the whole thing, just like I've been wrong in the past.  This game is simply a big gambling casino anyway.  We just play the odds, and count the cards.  But it's always tougher in this game, as the gangsters know what you have in your hand...

Oh, screw it... hit me again!  I'll get a BlackJack one day!

Red

103 COMMENTS

    • Thanks for the update. When we finally do start heading down for good, I think Goldman will be sacrificed like Lehman Brothers was previously. Then, that FP of GS will happen as they go bankrupt.

  1. Red, I’ve seen you comment on false prints and thought I’d share I saw one. It might be old news but it’s on gold futures on prophet at 941. Yipes… if gold goes to $1550 in the coming weeks and then drops to 941 that would be a 38% retrace from the $250 “bottom” back 1999-2000. Could it be?

    • Thanks… I keep seeing the same print too. I think it’s just an error with the charting system, as it shows up almost daily. But keep your eye’s open for others too… and let me know if you get one.

  2. DIA, holding at the 20 day, and above it’s 50 day…If this is a real 20 day 50 day trap…That’s where the DOW trades in between it’s 20 day and 50 day, and this trap happens a lot, and I mean a lot!..The Dow is going down next week. The trap is set. Let’s see if the bull puts its foot in the trap.

    • We will have a sell off Robert, but it’s likely to be bought back up and rallied throughout most of December. But next spring isn’t likely to be UP, as I fully expect the FP of 118.16 to be the final high for this market.

      Since it’s likely to be hit in January or early February, the following months will be full of bears, not bulls. So spring isn’t likely going to be all that “springy” for the bulls… IMHO.

  3. It’s a beautiful Full Moon, and Euro rising on bailout!

    From the land of WTF?

    Ireland, after just days before, steadfastly denying it needs financial help, is forced to accept help.

    Down below, please review the S&P 500, especially the Fib Fan from the Great Depression and the Big 61 Fibo, both now in play, both extremely bearish

    And the Euro overall up on that news. Very odd. Perhaps what they nicely refer to as an exhaustion top/spike. Which basically means a last minute manipulation before the real direction is set.

    NZD as a currency got hammered in Sunday action, against all others that I viewed.
    I was snaked out of my copper short, and glad I had stop in place. Somehow I got a decent fill on a gap up. Again, with Eurozone blowing up I was surprised that USD down and copper up.

    Went back in short copper at a higher price—based on the PRS kickdown shown in this blog last week.

    Scanning the futures and FX, I really don’t see anything “obvious”.

    Expiry was last Friday, and often the Monday after sees some serious moves as the market gets back to normal.

    STRATEGY: set some orders to activate either long or short based upon a move. For ES (S&P 500 futures) I will accept an 8 point move beyond the entry point as profit stop. And a 1.25 point stop as a loss.

    I get alot of periodicals. This one called Assembly is hilarious. Upset Zombie Workers, on the production line.

    And here it is, the Fib Fan from Great Depression

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  4. Guess I am going against the grain here. Ireland got it’s spoonful of medicine. Euro is pressuring the dollar AGAIN and we should see a nice rally on Monday (I hope I’m wrong).

    Will be another great day for silver. Check out SLW & SLV

    • As I said, I expect a pop higher in the morning, but a fade back down the rest of the day, with a negative close. But, it should be a buying opportunity for Tuesday and Wednesday, which I expect to be up days.

      • We should be able to sustain the rally. I’m not expecting us to end the day in negative territory.

        I’m not sure what reports come out tomorrow but they could definitely change that.

        I am extremely bearish on the Financial Sector though. I’d love to see some of these big banks fail.

        We will see how this plays out though…

        • I only say that based on the the 60 minute chart. It’s entirely possible that they hold the market in place all day while the 60 minute chart dips into negative territory on the histogram bars, and resets itself for Tuesday. Nothing surprises me anymore. The manipulation is so obvious that they don’t even try to hide it anymore.

  5. That sure was a crazy open. They ran the market up 5-6 points in the premarket and cleared all the bear stops out. Then they gapped down in the regular session to clear all the bull stops. Now they are going back up for gap fill. Sheesh… crazy swing today.

  6. This sideways movement is putting in a bear flag. We could drop one more time to fill the lower gap before the day closes. Of course I still expect a positive day tomorrow and Wednesday.

  7. the number of puts on weekly spy(119) are more than double the calls…(120,121
    seems like a lot of bears are coming from the woods

  8. Interesting sell off.

    I guess things will continue to happen when we least expect it.

    That video you posted a long time ago did mention November 21st I believe.

  9. I had one more position, way out of money for january and I just sold that too for little profit, cause I think the panic is over, and if today is the day when market goes all crazy, so be it…
    I have lost so much being a bear in the past three months that now I try to recuperate in small steps ( so I can loose another big chunk again LOL)

    • I think that will be a wave 2 up (or B wave), with another leg down to follow the rest of the week. That should allow the market to rise as the dollar falls back lower to another support level.

    • Yeah… they are. But this time the charts are playing out exactly as I expected. We had a 5-6 point rally before the open to squeeze out the bears. Then we gapped down (although I thought we would gap up in the regular session too, not just the premarket), and after a gap fill, we continued down to allow the 60 minute chart to go negative and reset itself for another push higher.

      That’s pretty close to what I thought would happen in this weekend update post. Of course I did say that I expected a gap up first, which didn’t happen. But it did happen in the premarket, so that’s close enough to still playing out.

      Now I’m still expecting a move higher the rest of the week, and a peak being put in on Friday, or possibly Wednesday.

  10. that is short term, if I look at the long term, it doesn’t seem that we will have any santa claus rally after all, it looks really bearish and I am curious if we do break the overhead resistance… my gut tells me we will not, but too scare to trade on that…

  11. The Fed completed the first full week of its pumping campaign under QE2 this week with the purchase of $31 billion in Treasury notes, bonds, and TIPS. The total schedule for the first month calls for purchases of $105 billion. The initial round of purchases had limited impact, with the markets little changed from where they were before the program was implemented. Part of that was due to $42 billion in Treasury settlements on Monday 11/15, but the market’s tepid response after that raises questions. Thursday saw a bit of a meltup but Friday quieted down again. More cash is coming on Monday. If there is again little or no response from the market it would suggest that the bucket into which the Fed is pouring liquidity is full of holes.

    One of those holes may be the banks. Banks continue to not lend. On top of that they increased their selling of Treasuries in the week ended November 10. This was a continuation of a recent trend where they first cut back on their buying in September, and then began interspersing rounds of selling. The experts from the TBAC and at the Fed expected banks to be heavy buyers of Treasuries, helping to absorb ongoing massive waves of supply. We began to note the bank cutbacks several weeks ago and now the trend is unmistakable. There’s trouble in River City. I had speculated that the real reason for QE2 wasn’t what Bernanke said—too low inflation and too high unemployment. The real reason was more likely to be a slow motion bank collapse thanks to the growing recognition of the worthlessness of the banks’ mortgage portfolios.

    This week a few bloggers and the mainstream media began to pick up the scent of what we had sniffed a few weeks ago. On Thursday the Fed added fuel to the fire by announcing a new round of stress tests for the Too-Big-To-Fails (TBTF). Of course the Fed protested that these tests would be part of a new “routine” regimen. That’s just typical Fed bullspin. Why announce “routine” stress tests now and not 6 months ago or at the time of the first stress tests?

    So with the Fed now pumping $100 billion plus per month into the system, it behooves us to watch what the banks do with the money.

    Next week’s Fed H8 will be the first post November 10 statement where we get to see whether and where the banks are putting the cash to work. If they continue to sell Treasuries and to not increase their loan portfolios, then I would have to conclude that they are facing dire problems, and that the Fed’s program really is, as we suspected, nothing more than paper hanging over a rotting foundation and façade. If they boost lending and resume buying Treasuries, then the Fed’s propping should work to reignite the bull move in stocks. Otherwise, the days of the bull could be numbered, and the Fed will have been shown to be not king’s men putting Humpty Dumpty back together, but eunuchs in the queen’s court.

    In addition to the question of where the PDs and the banks will put the cash, another issue is whether the foreign central banks (FCBs) will continue their recently massive rate of Treasury purchases. They reached their usual cyclical peak buying parameters a couple of weeks ago. That massive wave of buying over the 7 prior weeks played a large roll in the strong move in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Now the FCBs appear ready for at least a normal cyclical cutback, if not something more.

    Do they intend to back their complaints about Fed money printing with a buyers strike? The initial signs of the last two weeks suggest that the FCBs may be ready to put their money where their mouth is. That along with weakness in bank buying would stymie the Fed’s best laid plans of mice and rats.

    It has been an interesting week. Next week will be even more interesting with another $10-$13 billion in Fed cash hitting PD trading accounts in an environment of light pre and post holiday trading. The PDs will not be burdened with having to settle any new Treasury supply until the following week on Tuesday, November 30. This is a prime setup for a meltup. If the PDs have just been holding back some of the cash they got in the past week, it could be quite a party. If the party turns out to be a dud, then the potentially countervailing forces of bank selling and reduced FCB buying are likely to continue to put the kibosh on Bernanke’s Gambit for the foreseeable future. Ben may find his king cornered on the monetary chessboard, this time with no way out.

    This extended preview is excerpted from this week’s Professional Edition Fed Report. See page 6 for a summary of this week’s developments. The complete 60 page report includes updated tables, charts, expanded analysis and historical background.

    Lee Adlera

    • Absolutely. I think we might have had our “dip” for the week today, and could float up through the rest of the week. I’m planning to reduce long exposure during the short session on Friday.

      • I agree Dreadwin. Whatever the high is this week, next week we should see some lower levels. While I don’t know if next Monday will be down or not, I do see some selling all of next week.

        It would be wise to close out longs by Wednesday, as you certainly wouldn’t want another Dubai Thanksgiving Friday.

  12. The Miami Thrice/Heat are 8-5 (the 58crash #) coming into this crucial 11-22date and face the 5-6 Indiana Pacers tonight. Today is the Miami Thrice # of days from the press conference on July 9 that unveiled the Miam Thrice # and it looks like the market put in a nice top today. JNK sold off again and oil looked real weak. Full moon high today also most likely. Also in the 2PI # range from the April high……Danger Will Robinson the 212#fast approaching!!!!With 70%+ bulls in the Consensus Poll last week, I don’t see the launch of another big upleg that both the bulls and bears seem to be universally agreeing upon. (Dr. Copper was down today also)

    • Miami Strife lost tonight scoring 77pts (93-77) dropping to 8-6. Do we see the crash when they drop to 8-8 or 8-7??? It’s doubtful they drop to 8-8 because in order for that to happen they would have to lose to Philadelphia at home on Friday. But dropping to 8-7 looks good since they will play Orlando at Orlando on Wednesday. Tonights MNF game saw the Chargers win 35-14 or 7777777 or 7×7. The markets have celebrated this by declining. Gold was starting to tank hard the last time I saw about a half an hour ago along with the euro while the stock averages were down mildly. Just listened to the latest Larry P update and he is bullish for the holiday week although he has some key astro dates for Tuesday and Wednesday.

  13. Hang Seng taking a dump tonight, probably because of credit tightening. Hell, maybe this will morph into a credit squeeze. Wouldn’t that bring all the cockroaches to light? Maybe we’ll see the dollar strengthen? There is a sizable gap from last week in EUR/USD that needs to be filled.

    I think Anna hit the nail on the head with the possibility of a holiday non-rally. I was thinking the exact same thing because of the fact that this POMO money has completely jacked up all the markets. Seasonality means nothing now. But I think there will be a small Xmas rally, as usual, and a 2011 open similar to what we saw in 2008. The Sep/Oct BS we saw was a total setup with all the negative press going into that period. 1,200 point short-covering rally. I’ve seen many things these last years that I won’t see for decades because of all the wild-west illegal manipulation going on.

  14. agreed … Shangai is 2.5% down, even worse
    and yes sept and oct was a total BS and manipulation, against all odds markets kept rallying
    I said today earlier same thing, there may be no santa claus rally, or if there is …. maybe late december

    I have not taken any long position, I was tempted by the upside down head and shoulder on the short term spy, and maybe I should have but only to close it by the day end, because I am not sure I want to be caught with overnight positions now… I learn my lesson in sept/oct.

    • Yes, if these punks actually DID learn something from history, they learned the Roman paradigm “Divide and Conquer.” Unfortunately, this is what they are doing to the People they swore to serve.

  15. Lastly:

    http://blogs.forbes.com/danielfisher/2010/11/22/massive-case-may-push-the-envelope-of-insider-trading/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

    I suppose if you tell everyone in the world that you are illegally manipulating the stock market (the Fed), it’s OK, but if you do good research without breaking any laws in the process (above named research firms) it’s illegal and you’re going to jail for a long time.

    This BS me of the events that happened before Louis XVI had his head chopped off.

  16. the big fish never gets caught… there is always some lamb sacrificed to show the world they are doing their job

  17. Yesterday at the close I took a small put position because I still believe long term market is bearish, but I sold it first thing in the morning, should I waited the profit would have doubled, but I like better safe than sorry policy. Now I am waiting for an entry point, but is not clear if up or down yet….
    just lilke yesterday: it seems by day end market will bounce back, but can’t say same thing for the rest of the week just yet….

    • Well, the volume on this sell off is really quite light. That tells me that the gangsters might be using this holiday week to sell off the market to a level that they can start to rally back up from for the Christmas Rally.

      The North Korea/South Korea thing was timed perfectly… wouldn’t you agree? It’s not enough to cause a crash, but just enough to scare the market a little bit.

      That “little bit” will justify for a “correction” and allow a continued move higher next week. We could go down another 10-30 points before the week is over… at which point “our correction” would also be over.

      If this was done last week with all the traders present and not on holiday vacation, the market would have been down twice as far I believe. More gangster manipulation it seems…

      • I think the same, they just “correct” the market a llittle so they can get a better position of the Santa Claus Rally. And I also believe that the market might drop again but not sure if today but if is by the end of the week, than maybe is a little more than 30 points, just my opinion. Another 30 points will only by enough for today. Which I don’t really think will happen. The spy might drop from its 118.54 to 118.20 the most, after that will rally back up

        • Agreed, the weekly support is at 1130 spx (about 113 spy), which would be about as low as I can see it going. That would be a nice correction, and then a rally can start and continue until about the end of January. After that, it’s all down hill.

  18. yep… however since the trend is down now the puts are moving faster than the calls for quick in and out, but noon time is just not right to get in, so I am waiting for another hour or so to see .
    I hope I will not be chicken like yesterday and wait till close to make a move, I really don’t want to stay overnight anymore with any positions now…

    • Yeah, staying overnight is risky. They could easily gap it up and squeeze the bears tomorrow morning, just as easy as they could push it down more.

      The charts say we are oversold now… but you and I both know that it can stay oversold for quite awhile. So will it rally back up, or continue down? Don’t know, but down is the easiest path.

  19. Wow, this market it really bullet proof. Amazing! Another miracle on wall st! Day after day after day after day after day after day after day! Incredible! It’s almost as if someone is illegally manipulating the market so that it will never ever fall more than 200 points or below 11,000!

    There could be a nuclear war and the entire surface of the earth could be molten rock and metal and the Dow would rally up at the end of the day because who knows where the servers are that are really controlling this market??

  20. If we go back up into the close, we would have an “inverted head and shoulders” pattern setup. If it works, then we should rally tomorrow. If it fails, then another large move down should happen.

    • LOL… yes, I posted it awhile back. But that’s cool, post it again… not like I have a lot of commentors anyway. Maybe I’ll turn the site into a place to post jokes? (Just kidding).

      P.S. Keep your eye’s open for FP’s. I haven’t seen any in awhile now. It’s always quietest before the storm.

        • Watch the video replies too. They show how badly some people want to justify the Fed’s move. One of them even called currency a liability, which it’s not. Funny thing is, it just hit me that any debt that is denominated in any fiat currency is also not a liability because of the fact that its value can be altered, much like Madman Bernanke is doing now.

          I guess people are going to start to change their thinking in the next several years, as this becomes more apparent.

          By the way, according to ZH, the Fed is now the biggest holder of Treasuries on the world.

          YEAH BABY! WE’RE NUMBER ONE!

      • Yes, I did, I only wanted a day trade of calls, so by the end of the day since it didn’t go my way, I sold it and I only lost the trade fee…
        By the way what do you use for options trading?
        Scottrade is killing me….. fees are too high

        • I’m using Ameritrade and they are too high too. Think or Swim seems to be the cheapest, (according to Anna). She uses them and says it’s fairly cheap for a small amount of options.

    • The dollar is still moving up, and that’s why the market can’t catch a bid. Once the dollar backs down some, the market should rally (that’s “if” the dollar backs down?).

  21. I own some puts in BAC since yesterday.

    I still think if your gonna short the market, short the banks. They can only hide their bad assets in bail out money for so long.

    FAZ has done pretty good in either an up or down market.

    • Yes, I agree. At one point these banks will collapse the whole market down. But for now we’ll probably have too wait until the holiday seasons are over. Next year is going too be very ugly I believe.

  22. What a bunch of garbage.

    “USE that POMO money to give the appearance that we’re bouncing off the 50 DMA! Hurry before it closes!”

      • Do you happen to remember the last time that happened and what occurred afterward? That is very odd…

        Also, EUR is all the way down to 1.3410USD now and if we’re going to have much more downward movement, it’s probably going to have to be between now and 1.30, which is 50% retracement. For a 2 penny move, this was a pathetic selloff, especially since this was the second in 2 weeks. Holiday this week throws a monkey wrench into everything.

        This is weirder than weird.

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