Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Somethings Going To Break Soon

Wednesday Update...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-U66me8Rjc)

Red

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Will it be another leg down for the Bears, or a rally back up for the Bulls?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Anxvvx8ACTk)

From everything I see, it looks more likely to fall down instead of rallying.  All the charts look bearish... very bearish.  I just can't find a reason for the market to rally right now.  While anything is possible, the easiest path right now is down.  I'm actually looking for a reason to go long, but I can't find one.  The charts aren't oversold yet, in fact many of them are over bought.

Does that mean that we will sell off tomorrow again?  If the market follows the charts, then yes.  If we rally against the charts, then you can thank uncle Ben and the $15 Billion of POMO money that will be injected into the market tomorrow and another $15 Billion on Thursday.  The charts say we go down, but you have to think about what the gangsters want to happen.

Will they allow this sell off to continue down to put in the 2nd leg down as most sell off do, or will they manipulate the market with monoply money?  I've gotten burnt so many times following the charts, that I just don't trust them exclusively anymore.  They are manipulated by the gangsters, and it's usually when you think that the charts are working properly again that they reverse course and pull a fast one on you.

So, I'll only say that the charts are pointing down, but that doesn't mean the market will go down.  We are coming to an apex where the downward sloping trendline is going to intersect with the horizontal line of support around 1173 spx.  A breakout move is just days away now... maybe even tomorrow?  Which way is unknown, but down is the easiest direction.

Tomorrow is the first day of December, and should be a bullish day... but the charts don't support that.  There is still lots of negative news out there, which is keeping this market from calming down enough to rally.  I do believe we will rally for Christmas, but not until a nice flush out happens first.  It doesn't have too be huge to the downside, but needs to be at least 1150, if not 1130 on the spx I believe.

After that, I believe the market could rally back up into early next year.  But for now, I remain bearish....

Red

Red
Author: Red

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ACP
ACP
13 years ago

The only certainty in this market is such: Illegal intervention by Fed only increases uncertainty.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

Ain’t that the truth! Nothing is this easy to read… if it was, then everyone would be short the market right now.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

The USD is rallying, that sounds like a manipulation in itself.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

That might be manipulation, or not? It’s hard for them to control the dollar with all the “more bailouts” needed news out there for more of the PIIGS countries. So I’m not sure if they are allowing the dollar to rise or not? They might not have control of it right now. You know they are still print money, but they can’t keep the dollar down right now.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think it depends on how many euros will be printed/insured to keep from letting the wealthy from taking the slightest haircut. Look at Spain’s 10yr. Talk about going vertical. How will that be resolved? All I see is complacency right now.

Bailing out Spain & Portugal & Ireland & Greece and whoever else wants to bend over for the banks will dwarf the $600 bil by the Fed. But then again, like I’ve mentioned before, people won’t turn away from their favorite episode of Friends until the situation hits them in the face like a Mack truck. Then they’ll say, “How could anyone have seen that???”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

http://vigilantcitizen.com/?p=1676

Here’s a great site with a wealth of information.

Just don’t read too many articles, the negativity has a damaging effect.
Some of the stuff you read on here is just plain sick and demented.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Unemployment Benefits Expire After Extension Bid Fails in Senate:
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/unemployment-benefits-expire-senate-bid-fails/story?id=12281781

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Our economy is bankrupt because people are morally bankrupt.This market doesn’t follow a chart and unfortunately the only way to go right now is UP.I just want you to make some money and not miss the rally UP on December 1st.

Robert
13 years ago

The train has left the station…………………..hope everyone is on…………..Unleash the POMO…………………..

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, so much for the charts! It’s back to the same old manipulation bullshit!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, so much for the charts! It’s back to the same old manipulation bullshit!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, so much for the charts! It’s back to the same old manipulation bullshit!

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Completely disagree — look at a daily chart of IYT (Dow transports).

What I see is a new high. Dow theory tells us that what should happen next if the bull is still intact is that the Dow industrials should make a new high. Russell made a new high today.

The alternate wave count is that this is a wave 4 flat, with B setting a new high before C down. Like I said in a post to Katzo yesterday on HOB, I’ll either look really smart or really dumb in two weeks with this call.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Gangsta 🙂 UP UP 😉

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Today is a perfect example of why the market isn’t a “free market”, but one controlled by gangster Illuminati Reptilians.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Well the way I see it they needed to drive the market down prior they got the Pomo so when they are ready to buy they will buy at discount.
They will cash out soon and markets will dive again, at least till the next Pomo 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

It’s not likely to happen today, as tomorrow they will have another 15 Billion in POMO to use.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Their power I assume brances out all over the world and for maximum profit all markets were down early in the week: Asia, Europe … and now all are high up so we are merely following. The best part is that all action, up or down is hapening before the bell opens so nobody gets a chance to profit besides some crums

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Exactly… crooked isn’t it?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I’m seeing an intraday FP at 119.97 spy, so we should hit that target sometime today. That should be a good spot to get out of any shorts you may have been trapped with.

Dangermouse
Dangermouse
13 years ago

Is it 15$ billion? This link says 7-9 billion.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Dangermouse

This link from ZeroHedge says 15 Billion…
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ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

The NY Fed schedule said 6-8 bil today, which is also what ZH said. These schedule are simply subject to change, depending on how the Fed wants to illegally manipulate the market. Maybe they figured the IMF bailout for Europe news would be enough so that they could save a few bil for later. Or pay for Madman Ben’s personal security when what he’s doing finally destroys the world and there’s a price on HIS head.

This is all the an old school James Bond story, with Madman Ben as the bad guy. With any luck, he’ll meet the same fate as all those guys in the movies.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

The crooks are after Assagne, the 39 years hacker who founded Wikileaks, they are so scared of him that they had interpol looking for him all over on some probably baseless acusation of sexual molestation and rape. His interviews to Time, I noticed, are over Skype to avoid tracking. Nobody knows where he is but I bet he is holding some very important information if they want to silence him with any price.

Here is the article from Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B036L20101201

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Well, you knew the gangsters wouldn’t give up that easy. Bastards they are, put not stupid bastards. They will continue to try to start WW3 somewhere on the planet, in the usual effort to create chaos and promote evil.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

as a distraction, you betcha.
They’re doin a pretty good job in the just the Markets alone!

ACP
ACP
13 years ago

Gotta love these fake charts. I haven’t seen such a bogus manipulation day as today since the last bogus rally!

All the indices look like damn stepladders!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

The Euro is at more risk than the USD. The GDP of the USA is 14.26 Trillion. The GDP of the European Union (27 countries) barely beats the USA at 16.44 Trillion.

Leading the GDP of the European Union is Germany (3.3 Trillion GDP) which we conquered and rebuilt in our image followed by France (2.6 Trillion GDP)

Japan has the second highest GDP of 5.1 Trillion followed by China with a GDP of 5 Trillion.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Interesting that the Fed can orchestrate such a scam…the US produces nothing, yet has the largest GDP of any country.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

Whoops, my mistake, we do have one export: FRAUD.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Anna
13 years ago

Assange is my Hero!

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I heard that Congress(or certain segments of it) was still trying to extend tax cuts. I thought it was already built into the market that there won’t be any tax cuts (unless there’s a crash). When it’s apparent that there won’t be any tax cuts, the market will panic as funds and individuals sell to capture the lower rate. I need to see when that vote is (haven’t read the article yet)

Robert
13 years ago

Awesome day fellas! Broad base buying and good economic news today. Rally continues tomorrow. Seasonals very bullish…………

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

ISEE all equities at a WOW! 327 reading second highest reading all time to the reading on April 15 and the call buying increased into the close when the action had tapered off (particularly in the Nasdaq). $nymo putting in the same pattern it did in late April to May 3. Let’s see if it can break out of its range tomorrow. Euro needed to bounce and it did. It could pop up to its 20day average but there aren’t any guarantees it needs to. Almost all bonds sold off hard with the exception of eeb (emerging market debt) and IIC (California muni debt) had a massive red bar reversal today.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago

..enjoy your commentary Leo.
I truly believe the bulls, sell short positions to the remaining bears, then turn around and buy the calls/longs.

this is the one chart, that has kept me in the game, for now.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p65071811817

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gold_Gerb

Thanks…

That chart showed a turn coming a few days before today’s rally. I’ll have to try and remember to look at it in the future.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Refresh page for new video…

steveo77
13 years ago

Good news, I cut a deal with Breakpoint Trades they are allowing me to post the full-on not watered down version of their stock market newsletter.

You get it for free, visit Hawaii Trading for the link!

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/12/full-paid-newsletter-for-free- from.html

steveo77
13 years ago

Good news, I cut a deal with Breakpoint Trades they are allowing me to post the full-on not watered down version of their stock market newsletter.

You get it for free, visit Hawaii Trading for the link!

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/12/full-paid-newsletter-for-free-from.html

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Gangsta 🙂

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

comment image

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Interesting.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We should hit the FP on the Russell today. We are very close now, tagging 748.14 as a high on the RUT. The FP was for the futures, which trades a little low. So 749 (the FP) would probably be about 750-751 on the RUT.

After it’s hit, we’ll have to start looking for some downside prints to show up, as I think this leg up is still only a corrective wave, with a 3rd wave down to come.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We’ve hit a high of 749.20 on the Russell 2000 ($RUT), which should match up with the FP of 749 on the futures of the Russell (TF). So, that FP should now be considered “filled”.

When hitting any FP, up or down, it doesn’t always mean that it will reverse at that level. It simply means that they plan to take it there. I’ve noticed that when they take it there quickly, (like they just have), that it usually is just a “stopping point” before deciding to continue in the same direction or reverse.

I don’t have a clear read on percentage on how many times it reverses versus continues in the same direction. But, since we are now very overbought on the short term charts, I’d expect a pull back from this area at least.

Whether or not it’s going to be a reversal, or just a correction with another leg back up to follow is still unknown? Remember, we still have that DIA FP of 118.16 left to go. So maybe we just dip down a little for a few days and then push higher again. I just don’t have a good read on it right now.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Europe is still in trouble. The last 350 points on the Dow has apparently made everyone forget that fact. These last 2 days were better than the first two days of the BS rally back in August. Can’t see this continuing to new highs, except is funds chase in desperation until EOY. Can’t really see a huge pullback either, without an “unforseen” (at least to us) catalyst.

Seems like a “last hurrah” to me, and still see the beginning of 2011 look like the beginning of 2008.

Rangebound for now, I suppose?

Johnny T.
Johnny T.
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Heck Red at this rate we could hit the 118.16 by Tuesday. I don’t think we will but as of right now, 3.9% upside on the DIA and we are to the 118.16 FP. If we did hit it by Tuesday, you would have an answer to your question “what is the significance of the December 7th FP on the Wilshire?” Would the TPTB make it that obvious?

Bmsventura
Bmsventura
13 years ago

Red can you give me one good pomo calendar website?

Thanks

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Bmsventura

LOL… I wish I could get an accurate read on it. The link I have listed here on this blog under the “Helpful Information” section goes to the nyfed dot org site, which I’m sure is an “official” site… but ZeroHedge somehow came up with what I suspect is more accurate numbers.

Clearly the numbers that they have listed (which show $15 Billion today and yesterday) are what’s driving this insane rally. The numbers on the nyfed site only have today and yesterday listed with $7-9 Billion each day.

I don’t know where ZH got their info from, but I’d sure like to know that answer to. Here is ZH’s link again…
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philip
philip
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

re: I don’t know where ZH got their info from, but I’d sure like to know that answer to. Here is ZH’s link again…

Red’ those numbers were an ESTIMATE, prior to the actual pomo schedule being released. I remember the story on zero-hedge at the time.

It is why your POMO references have been wrong EVERY DAY in the last few weeks.

See the treasury website, use their dates. They even give a precise range for POMO since the ‘big pomos’ began.

Good wishes though. I very much enjoy reading all your thoughts.

philip..in London

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
z stocktiger
13 years ago

down on FRI up on Mon—for XLE and OIH weekly pattern

z stocktiger
13 years ago

I’m short OIH, for an overnight…HAL,BHI,NBL too high

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Well, the only good thing about today is that the SP closed at 1221, a variation of the magic number and b-berries most celebrated # on 12-2-1(0). 1221 minus 666 March 2009 low ====555 while 1227-666=561 ie 111 or 560.xx if one wants to do an exact calculation. Sounds good for a secondary top (ie wave 2 top—see Ron Walker’s chart of the 2007top for a comparison). ISEE all equities in another stratospheric reading level. (When ISEE hit an alltime high of 348 on April 15 it immediately tanked the next day and went on to make a slightly higher high). For my timeline to work, market needs to tank hard tomorrow. I’ll do a more comprehensive post later.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Final ISEE all equities reading===296. AAII bulls 49+% bears circa 26/27%……CBOE equity put-call ratio sub .5…..$oex put call ratio on Cboe features quite a preponderance of call buying over put buying.. But it had been reported that $oex ratio was very low the last few days(ie massive call buying to put buying) but I did not see that from CBOE’s data the last few days so I wonder how sentimenttrader calculates its OEX data. That’s the current hook that has all the bears running scared but it conflicts with all of the other dumb money data…….I still have a more comprehensive post coming.

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