Weekend Update – The Bulls Keep On Going And Going And Going…

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The Bears Finally Feast!

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClZxbHCIChU)

While tomorrow and possibly Thursday could bounce back up some, the move down we've all been looking for is finally here I believe.

Red

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President's Day Update - Market Tanks... It's Starting!

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6CGNtyzIPM)

While I don't think this is the final top, I do believe we are now starting the "topping process", which means that I expect it to have a lot of wild swings in the next 2 weeks before finally tanking really hard.  Just be prepared for some volatility!

Red

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When Will The Bulls Battery Ever  Die?

I wish I knew the answer!  Every time it looks like it's ready to run out of juice, it some how manages to go up just a little further.  All that POMO money is managing to keep the market up for now, as long as the big institutions don't decide to hit the panic button.

And since the big boys have a direct line to Bernanke, it's unlikely they will sell until they get the "go ahead" message.  For us sheep though, we want to know when that is... so we can get short ahead of them!  However, only the insiders are given that information, so we'll just have to keep on guessing for now.

Looking at the charts it seems that the bulls could continue this move up some next week too, as 15 and 30 minute charts look ready to pop up on Tuesday morning.  However, the 60 seems to be losing it's "mojo", and wants to roll over to the down side.  That should indicate that any move up on Tuesday shouldn't last too long.

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plwim4AfJo0)

Of course that's what the charts say, and of course they don't seem to be working lately (duh, when did they ever work?  Probably before the March, 2009 low I'd guess).   We really need to see that "blow off top" as until that happens, I just can't see them letting this market sell off any.

Just like a "capitulation" move happens on the downside, putting in a nice bottoming tail (look at 02-05-2010), we should see the same thing on the upside.  However, a top usually will form over a few days until all the dip buys are gone, while a bottom can be a one day event.

Meaning... when we get that topping tail candle, you should expect a powerful wave 2 back up after the first wave 1 selling is over.  Once those dip buyers realize that they can't break the top put in on the capitulation move up, they will sell and the real move down will begin.

It should look similar to late April top which had 2 big down days for wave 1, followed by 2 up days for wave 2... then one more fake out down/up move, and finally wave 3 down to the flash crash low of 1065.  While it won't likely take the same pattern, it should look a little like that time period.

This means that if you are tired of chasing the final top in this P2 move up, you could simply wait for the first leg down to happen and the move back up for wave 2 to be over with... then get short.  Of course you would miss a nice profit from the wave 1 down, but if you've lost your butt chasing the top, then maybe it's worth it?

While I "think" we could start the selling next week, I really have NO idea?  They could keep pushing this up into March or later, as the POMO money is still being put into the market and the big boys aren't selling right now.  Until they are told that it's "OK" to start selling, the little guys aren't likely to win the battle to get this market to correct back down.

So, with light volume expected to continue... especially since next week is a shortened one with Monday being a holiday, I'm not expecting too much to happen.  Unless they have another False Flag event, I'm expecting some controlled sell offs to reset the charts for a more upside.  How much... I don't know?

Sorry gang, but the chart are worthless in this controlled market.  Remember what happened after the last Legatus Pilgrimage in September?  The market failed to turn down and instead continued on up to the current high.   Obviously, they injected more money into the market.

Well, we just had a more recent Pilgrimage this month on the 3rd to the 5th.  Once again, the market has continued higher after the meeting.  This tells me that there is still more upside to come.  So, I'm not going to be shorting anything but quick one day moves (if we get those?) as the big move we are all looking for isn't likely to happen next week, or even the week after that.

I do see them continuing to stretch this out further, with more pain for the bears.  Could be March or even April before "the big one" starts down.   I'm just not believing this manipulation, but that's what they want us to do... so we'll go broke chasing a top.

There is no signs of this thing stopping right now, as long as they big institutions don't sell (and they won't until Bernanke tells them they can), and the POMO money keeps coming... this market will continue to inch its' way up day after day with only small pullbacks (that will be very controlled).

So again, unless some surprise event (yeah... right!  surprise to us sheep only, as the wolves planned it) happens next week, it's business as usual... meaning, "screw the bears" and "lead more bulls to the slaughter house".   Just play it safe everyone, as chasing this bull is going to break you if you don't take a breather and still out from time to time.

I plan to sit out most of the time and dip in the short water only for quick moves, hoping that they will actually play out?  I refuse to go long at these levels but I respect those brave enough to do so.  Riding the bull takes guts, as he can throw you at anytime.  I'll wait until he takes a short rest and steal a bit to eat from him.

The bottom line is... "I simply don't know".  I'm losing all faith in the bearish cause, so an exit to the sidelines (for me) is the safer play.  I refuse to go long and chase this bull on his last run, but I won't bother with trying to pick the spot he will stop.  So, it's do or die time for the bears next week.  We had our full moon turn date and Gann turn date over the weekend.  If we don't start a serious sell off next, it's not likely to happen until March or April.

Good luck gang,

Red

405 COMMENTS

  1. If past history was all there was to the game,
    the richest people would be librarians.
    Warren Buffett
    Stock prices behave this way as well. I can spot past signals, that worked, avoid those signals, and try to find a signal, that looks fresh, hasn’t been used in awhile.
    i’m always asking myself, “am i looking at this stock’s price history, or am i formulating it’s new price channel. there’s a subtle difference between these two.
    if i’m looking at its price history, which is an easy mistake to do, i scrap whatever work i did, and start all over.

    sometimes the history, matches up with the fundamentals, then i go with the history.
    this tgt chart is a good example. history says 51.17 last low ( history) should hold. fundamentals / reality say, go long now, or at 50.7. use a 50.2 stop loss. or if under 50.2 ( feb pullback) just wait for the 52.5-53 exit. i prefer using the 3% stop loss. move to the next trade.
    http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/tgt-2-18aa.jpg

  2. i’m still finding some solid companies with solid fundamentals to go long on. it’s when i run out of these finds, that’s when something is usually going to happen. it can still happen, despite the finds, dow futures down 22

    • Nice clientele…Hillary Duff, Jessica Alba.
      Yeah I think the only thing that will cause a correction is something that we might be seeing now, which is a lack of equities for the bots to churn. I wouldn’t be surprised to have a small correction, before continuing up thru the end of POMO. The past 2 Fridays, the big boys have been selling big S&Ps. I guess we’ll see. Just a correction big enough to let off a little overbought pressure.

    • true, but you know it’ll be up 150 points in the morning when apple announces its new remote control condom.

    • true, but you know it’ll be up 150 points in the morning when apple announces its new remote control condom.

    • i agree red,

      the futures are lookin like jone rivers face – a REAL butt a$$ ugly mess! big question on tap – will the ppt/bernake duel force allow it to continue come morning??? we will wait and see.

      • I wouldn’t be surprised if we open down, sell off most the day and rally back in some short squeeze Wednesday or Thursday, closing the week out flat or so. One thing is certain, it won’t go straight down with bears onboard!

        • Hey Red,
          It seems like there will never be a down anymore, just up, up, up, buy the f-ing dip:) like in that cartoon!
          Since August, I have lost so much with my shorts, my profit and my premium… than I tried again this year to dip my toes, and lost again, so I am out completely. I am only in silver right now, physical and SLW and this is the only thing good to me right now! Today silver touched $34! and it has caught my attention since it was $18, but started small position at $18, and just now recent more agressive.
          Stock market is only trouble, I tell you….
          I prefer to open a chinese account in RMB,( I read in newspaper they have one branch in NY and one in LA and you can put up to $4000/day) and I will be better off than playing the stock market LOL

          • LOL… I was just talking to Anna on the phone about the same thing! I too have lost money shorting this POS rigged market and I’m thinking about the same thing… just buy silver and sit on it for the next several years!

            dziemer emailed me this… (thank’s)

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lwkpr8D-Fjc&feature=relmfu

            Silver should be worth thousands of dollars per ounce, if not at least hundreds according to this video. Regardless of what level you think silver will go to… it’s GUARANTEED TO GO UP!

            So, why not forget about trying to pick the top of this market and just buy silver and wait. Good fortune will come to those that have patience…

            🙂

          • I belive very much in silver at this point, I have very good links regarding silver on my blog, if you ever have time. Adrian Douglas is a guy who finished Cambridge University and he has a lot of videos on Youtube, I have those links, and not only him, I caught a link from Seeking Alpha how JP Morgan is lowering their shorts on silver, which means they know something is up, and much more, I really was into it you will see….

          • LOL… I was just talking to Anna on the phone about the same thing! I too have lost money shorting this POS rigged market and I’m thinking about the same thing… just buy silver and sit on it for the next several years!

            dziemer emailed me this… (thank’s)

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lwkpr8D-Fjc&feature=relmfu

            Silver should be worth thousands of dollars per ounce, if not at least hundreds according to this video. Regardless of what level you think silver will go to… it’s GUARANTEED TO GO UP!

            So, why not forget about trying to pick the top of this market and just buy silver and wait. Good fortune will come to those that have patience…

            🙂

  3. yeah who knows. maybe if we get a confirmation of those reversal candles on the nasdaq and rut daily charts then possible we go down and test support. bought tza at end of friday so……should have held onto my sco,oil.

          • You got me Red. Would love to see a pullback to at least 50dma but I’m sure Pomo will keep downside limited. They could tank it tomorrow and window dress after that. There seems to be too much risk out there. The market does not like uncertainty so we may corrrect for awhile.

    • Do you believe Anna, that this next week will end up being a BUYING opportunity. Or are you in the camp that believes we are in for a major correction that will last 1-2 months? So far, if this is all on Mid-East unrest, it should be a buying opportunity.

    • Do you believe Anna, that this next week will end up being a BUYING opportunity. Or are you in the camp that believes we are in for a major correction that will last 1-2 months? So far, if this is all on Mid-East unrest, it should be a buying opportunity.

      • Hi P2,
        hard to tell this early as markets constantly change, breathe, move however with Crude continuing to rise above 100$ that will be a huge crimp in the global recovery, so I am looking for a major correction @ this point 🙂

  4. here’s how you get market open on tuesday
    fri close 12391, futures 12291, or -100
    this is a for real gap down, and some of your longs are going to take a 3% hit. take the frikkin stop out, live to trade another day.

  5. Silver and Gold heating up like a Wildfire.

    I am considering trading my remaining physical gold for physical silver.

      • Thanks for the link to Lindsey Anna! Today’s Alex Jones show should be interesting. Q: I know Lindsey has had some good info in the past, but what is your confidence level in it playing out like he is saying? ie. $200/bb oil, USD gone by 2012, etc…

  6. Ok gang, it looks like we are going to do an ABC move up today. Looks like we finished the A leg around the 50% retracement level, and we’re now going down for the B leg.

    After it’s done, I expect a C leg up, which “could” take out the current high and hit the 135.14 spy FP? Bears might want to take some profit when the B leg down end’s?

    • i agree red – they will yank this thing around to get dip buyers in and bears out before they kick the stand out from beneath this market….

  7. We have not seen the vix swing 20% in a long time. Not sure if it will stay w/ a big POMO but there is some serious selling hitting this am.

      • The levels to watch for significance are 6% 12% 18%. 6% means keep an eye distribution is starting,
        12 and 18% are intensifying levels.

        Today for a while we hit 3)5 which I have not seen in years maybe since 2000 crash. If this holds things coyuld get bloody. I think the Middle east africa are just the excuse.

  8. red,

    euro/usd seems to be strangely quiet today??/ hmmm – whats yer thoughts on that – it seems we SHOULD be seeing a little more volatility and flight to safety in the usd///? hmmmm….

    • That is strange? The dollar really isn’t going anywhere, which leads me to believe this sell off isn’t based on fear or a flight to safety. That should mean that we will probably find a bottom somewhere today and rally from it tomorrow and the next few days.

      While this sell off is nice, I’m not betting the farm on it continue down and breaking the large rising wedge. That 1311-1313 level is the lower trendline for that wedge. I think it will hold and bounce from there. It might not hit it today, but instead hit it in the morning tomorrow.

      • anna,

        i dont trade fx. i was only stating that the pair is relatively stable today – without displaying any type of real volatility in light of the ongoing reaction to headline risk. merkel suffered a huge defeat in hamburg state elections, and if she wants to stay in power she will have to kick out EU members or move out of the euro…….so i am suspect when equities around the world are experiencing high volatility – that the two big currency pairs are calm – makes me go “hmmm”

  9. The volume on the spy is about 145 million now, and it’s almost 2pm. That’s not what I’d call “panic” selling. We need 200 million plus for a real down move to cause enough panic for a follow through the next day. At this rate, we’ll barely hit that 200 million level by the close.

    Needless to say, I think this “isn’t” the start of the big move down we have all been waiting for. I do expect a hard rally back from this over the next few days. Bears rejoice today, because these gangsters are likely to erase it all before the week ends.

      • No… I won’t go long. I’m out of all positions right now. While we could gap up tomorrow and continue rallying all day (which is why I don’t have any shorts left), we could also gap down quickly to stop out those who went long into the close today.

        However, I think any gap down tomorrow will be followed by a rally all day long, squeeze out all the bears that are short right now. If NO gap happens, then I suspect it will open and chop around all day frustrating both bulls and bears. Then Thursday will be the “unknown” day, as what Wednesday does will determine the rest of the week.

  10. On the Alex Jones Show tomorrow, pastor Lindsey Williams will reveal new bombshell information detailing the plans of the globalists revealed to him by his inside sources. The new information will dwarf anything Williams has revealed in the past. The new revelations deal with the death of the dollar, exploding energy prices, and the engineered onset of order out of chaos revolution worldwide.

    Pastor Williams’ revelations have turned out to be uncannily accurate in the past. In December, he told Alex Jones he was told by two of this longtime friends, both retired top executives of major oil producers, that the price of crude oil was slated to move to $150-200 per barrel in the short term.

    The turmoil in Libya sent the price of premium crude oil in London soaring above $105 a barrel recently, the highest level in two and a half years. Economists are predicting gas prices will takeoff because of instability in the Middle East. Some say drivers could be paying $5 a gallon for gas by late summer.

    Mr. Williams states the global elite plan to kill the dollar and bring the once great United States to its knees and reduce it to third world status.

    The Alex Jones Show airs from 11 to 2 PM CST and can be heard via streaming audio at infowars.com and on syndicated radio stations around the country.

    • Yes, it should happen soon. While I think the market will get a 1-2 day bounce, we are close to a crash now. The dollar rallying will be the fuel needed to push the market over the cliff I believe.

          • what would be the best play for that? which ETF? or stock?
            of course optionable…
            seems lots of people here trade futures… but I don’t

          • Futures ETFs are not really accurate at tracking prices. Even the ones that average prices over 12 months aren’t. As far as I know, the oil ones are all of that type. I would say actual oil futures would be the only really “pure” play, if you want to manage that risk…

          • Honestly, I don’t really track energy stocks very much…been so busy trying to figure out the general pattern for everything. They seem to rotate pumping/dumping between energy, dow, s&p, nasdaq. Foreign markets are more independent of “POMO effect”. It’s basically all day trading now. There’s no actual “investing” or even “swing trading” now. It’s all about knowing when something catches a bid and burning it until it’s time to sell.
            Kinda like the Wild West, I guess…

  11. Doing a free webinar on options/basics/greeks if you would like to attend please send me an email @ info@hotoptionbabe.com there are limited seats so please reply quickly its already filling up.
    Red will be there it will be fun and informative! thank you
    Date march 6th Sunday 6pm EST

  12. Anyone shorting this? Or are you thinking a bounce before a real crash… looks weak so far… housing data at 10am

  13. At the rate we are going, the short term charts will be overbought soon. That 60 and 30 minute charts are moving up quickly on their histogram bars and MACD’s, yet the market isn’t moving up with it. Very Bearish I believe. We could actually have another leg down today.

  14. FP @ (10:39) on QQQQ of 55.80 I got a screen shot for those of you who didn’t see it will send to Red and he can post. It is still on my intraday chart but is gone from monitor!

    • That’s a pretty decent move down. However, it doesn’t mean we won’t bounce first. The print will likely be hit, but it could be tomorrow, Friday or even into the close today. No way of knowing.

      I’m just sticking with the charts for now, and they say a bounce first… then lower. So, I think today will end flat to slightly up and then a larger up day tomorrow. That leaves Friday for the FP to be hit… or Monday?

  15. Red, Shankys blog posted last november that when you saw the dollar and the S&P 500 go down at the same time, it would be the beginning of THE END.
    Whats your thoughts seeing that its happeming as we speak?

    • Shanky’s right on that, as once the market realizes that a dollar that is too weak is actually bad for the economy, then they will lock in sync like we are seeing today.

      And since the dollar is doomed in the longer term (months, maybe a year), then the market is also doomed. There are a ton of reasons for the collapse of the dollar, besides the technical picture with the massive printing by Butthead Bernanke.

      The gangster elite Illuminati want to destroy the dollar and they have been in control for decades… even centuries I believe. And the fact that the white hats (the good guys) also need the dollar to collapse so they can bring America back to a Republic and get a new currency backed by physical gold, silver, and oil… that means the dollar doesn’t stand a chance of surviving.

      When you have a technical picture, from the 100+ Trillion really owed in fraud transactions and the massive printing that still can’t pay just the interest on the debt, along with both the good guys and the bad guys that need a collapse (for different reasons of course), the dollar has zero chance to survive.

  16. Well Dee, from the looks of things now, I’d say we hit your qqqq FP of 55.80 today. That could be a short term bottom before a bounce? It’s looking quite bearish right now, so I’m not sure how much of a bounce we are going to get? The trendline from December has now broken. Not good for bulls. LOL.

      • It only means that it will hit that target, not that it will bounce back up, continue down, or trade sideways. So it’s hard too say right now. But, today’s action is extremely bearish. Not even a doji from the looks of it (but the day isn’t over yet).

        I’m beginning to believe that they will crash this market Friday… especially if Thursday is another down day. I certainly wouldn’t touch any longs, and I’m wishing I held on to my shorts. Now I must wait for a bounce… arrrgh!

        Not sure to tell you Dee? We do have a FP from yesterday at 132.85 spy, which could be about a 50% retracement from the high to today’s low… if it doesn’t sell off too much further?

        • Thanks – I do remember the FP… so confusing. Looks so bearish today.
          Are you listening to Alex Jones now? Porter Stansberry (End of America) is
          on now and Lindsay Williams in last hour… as you know I belong to some
          services at Stansberry Research… this guy totally agrees with Alex and
          says he is a good spokesman for his message.
          Still watching things now …. going a bit sideways.

  17. Based on Lindsey Williams time line of 2012. I think we will still be going up.

    Eventually we will end up seeing “traditional” relationships severed.
    1. The dollar will go down with the market.
    2. Silver and Gold will find strength on their own.

    Like I always say, DXY is not a great measurement of anything. It is just comparing the dollar against other worthless currencies.

    • Porter Stansberry seems to have it all coming apart this year… did you watch End of America? or listen to him today on Alex Jones? Catch the replay if you didn’t.

      • Don’t worry Dee… it will still hit it. I’m thinking we go up to 132.85 tomorrow and then sell off again. We could crash this Friday? If not Friday, then Monday I believe. It depends on how high we go tomorrow? Hang tough girl… it’s coming!

  18. HI RED, Getting back to the DOLLAR/S&P 500 comparison, I believe this has been the 1st time I have seen them down together. Call me paranoid/hopeful but this may be what I think us “GROWLING AND HUNGRY BEARS” have been looking for. GOOD LUCK with the unravelling.

  19. Red,

    FYI – Abdullah indicated over on Jay’s site that he caught a FP of FAZ at 77 this afternoon. Considering there is 5:1 reverse split tonight that would be an 88% increase from here. Probably just more confirmation that we are going down.

      • Buy bots defended the 1300 area. Plenty of Pomo left and seasonal positive bias the rest of the week. My guess is that we go up from here with stops in place just in case it gets ugly. See ya Friday.

        • What you thinking? The HFT bot’s are going to rally the market much higher tomorrow, or they want it lower to 1289 spx? I’m not sure how to interpret what position that guy is leaning toward?

          • Yeah, Mr. Topstep is always neither here nor there, probably for legal reasons…but I don’t think the HFTs would give up this easily, with all the money that’s coming in. If you look at the Flash Crash…it happened in May, but the last POMO went out in March. There’s tons of money still and they’ll want to exert their control. Two down days in a row is enough to lure billions of dollars of bear money.
            Now, I could be wrong and they could take it down now, but I can’t see why. They know pumping works, so if it ain’t broke, why fix it. Tanking this market would introduce an unknown, which is not good for their MO.
            Just my thoughts…always keep your finger on the trigger…

          • I’m not sure at this point? I’m looking for a 50% retrace tomorrow and will look to get short at that point. I don’t know if a wave 3 down will follow on Friday, or a simple B wave down, with another C wave up to squeeze out my position? Either way, if the charts top out, I’ll at least get an intraday move down to profit from.

          • Your guess is as good as mine…I caught the Egypt tank right on the money, in fact, it was my biggest one-day jackpot EVER (I’ve never piled into deflated puts like that ever before), but this one was a zero sum game for me.
            I’ve switched to day-trading rules, for the most part, because everything has gotten way ridiculous out of hand. Yeah, I’m sure there will be swings to catch in the coming days.

          • I kinda feel like they will retrace all the way (or almost all the way) to the highs, but I think I’ll be satisfied with “pieces of legs” up or down. If they can push everything up from this point, it will be the ultimate display of raw power.

  20. red,

    a cool stat that has just come to my attention with 2 days of steady selling the wilshire 5000 monthly candle still closed outside the upper bollinger band. that is how stretched and overbought this market had become…..we have only just begun….

  21. What a BS excuse HFTs had for selling. Nothing has changed since last month. Needed to let off some steam. As we all know, the only technical indicator that even matters now is the angle of the upward trend. They’ll save it, in order to display their power/control, or let it go because it’s time. I believe they’ll do the former, for now.

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