The Bears Finally Feast!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClZxbHCIChU)
While tomorrow and possibly Thursday could bounce back up some, the move down we've all been looking for is finally here I believe.
President's Day Update - Market Tanks... It's Starting!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6CGNtyzIPM)
While I don't think this is the final top, I do believe we are now starting the "topping process", which means that I expect it to have a lot of wild swings in the next 2 weeks before finally tanking really hard. Just be prepared for some volatility!
When Will The Bulls Battery Ever Die?
I wish I knew the answer! Every time it looks like it's ready to run out of juice, it some how manages to go up just a little further. All that POMO money is managing to keep the market up for now, as long as the big institutions don't decide to hit the panic button.
And since the big boys have a direct line to Bernanke, it's unlikely they will sell until they get the "go ahead" message. For us sheep though, we want to know when that is... so we can get short ahead of them! However, only the insiders are given that information, so we'll just have to keep on guessing for now.
Looking at the charts it seems that the bulls could continue this move up some next week too, as 15 and 30 minute charts look ready to pop up on Tuesday morning. However, the 60 seems to be losing it's "mojo", and wants to roll over to the down side. That should indicate that any move up on Tuesday shouldn't last too long.
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plwim4AfJo0)
Of course that's what the charts say, and of course they don't seem to be working lately (duh, when did they ever work? Probably before the March, 2009 low I'd guess). We really need to see that "blow off top" as until that happens, I just can't see them letting this market sell off any.
Just like a "capitulation" move happens on the downside, putting in a nice bottoming tail (look at 02-05-2010), we should see the same thing on the upside. However, a top usually will form over a few days until all the dip buys are gone, while a bottom can be a one day event.
Meaning... when we get that topping tail candle, you should expect a powerful wave 2 back up after the first wave 1 selling is over. Once those dip buyers realize that they can't break the top put in on the capitulation move up, they will sell and the real move down will begin.
It should look similar to late April top which had 2 big down days for wave 1, followed by 2 up days for wave 2... then one more fake out down/up move, and finally wave 3 down to the flash crash low of 1065. While it won't likely take the same pattern, it should look a little like that time period.
This means that if you are tired of chasing the final top in this P2 move up, you could simply wait for the first leg down to happen and the move back up for wave 2 to be over with... then get short. Of course you would miss a nice profit from the wave 1 down, but if you've lost your butt chasing the top, then maybe it's worth it?
While I "think" we could start the selling next week, I really have NO idea? They could keep pushing this up into March or later, as the POMO money is still being put into the market and the big boys aren't selling right now. Until they are told that it's "OK" to start selling, the little guys aren't likely to win the battle to get this market to correct back down.
So, with light volume expected to continue... especially since next week is a shortened one with Monday being a holiday, I'm not expecting too much to happen. Unless they have another False Flag event, I'm expecting some controlled sell offs to reset the charts for a more upside. How much... I don't know?
Sorry gang, but the chart are worthless in this controlled market. Remember what happened after the last Legatus Pilgrimage in September? The market failed to turn down and instead continued on up to the current high. Obviously, they injected more money into the market.
Well, we just had a more recent Pilgrimage this month on the 3rd to the 5th. Once again, the market has continued higher after the meeting. This tells me that there is still more upside to come. So, I'm not going to be shorting anything but quick one day moves (if we get those?) as the big move we are all looking for isn't likely to happen next week, or even the week after that.
I do see them continuing to stretch this out further, with more pain for the bears. Could be March or even April before "the big one" starts down. I'm just not believing this manipulation, but that's what they want us to do... so we'll go broke chasing a top.
There is no signs of this thing stopping right now, as long as they big institutions don't sell (and they won't until Bernanke tells them they can), and the POMO money keeps coming... this market will continue to inch its' way up day after day with only small pullbacks (that will be very controlled).
So again, unless some surprise event (yeah... right! surprise to us sheep only, as the wolves planned it) happens next week, it's business as usual... meaning, "screw the bears" and "lead more bulls to the slaughter house". Just play it safe everyone, as chasing this bull is going to break you if you don't take a breather and still out from time to time.
I plan to sit out most of the time and dip in the short water only for quick moves, hoping that they will actually play out? I refuse to go long at these levels but I respect those brave enough to do so. Riding the bull takes guts, as he can throw you at anytime. I'll wait until he takes a short rest and steal a bit to eat from him.
The bottom line is... "I simply don't know". I'm losing all faith in the bearish cause, so an exit to the sidelines (for me) is the safer play. I refuse to go long and chase this bull on his last run, but I won't bother with trying to pick the spot he will stop. So, it's do or die time for the bears next week. We had our full moon turn date and Gann turn date over the weekend. If we don't start a serious sell off next, it's not likely to happen until March or April.
Good luck gang,