Wednesday Update...
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEjRebT4Ph0)
Red
_____________________________________________________
Now that everyone (including Grandma and the local shoe shine boy) is all aboard the bear train... it's time to steal their money!
Yes folks, as bearish as I am about the economy and the Great Depression Two that we are entering, nothing goes straight down forever. If it did, then the little guys would make money and the big boys would lose money... which you know isn't going to happen. The wolves will always trick the sheep into giving their money to them (unwilling of course). This time is NO different!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9UT1Kqy0fE)
Just about all the charts are in oversold levels and area's of "capitulation"... meaning a strong rally is coming soon. The market is at major support level's on all most all of the different indexes, and should force a multi-week rally to start this coming week. While I'm not sure what each day will bring next week, I do see positive close on the weekly chart. This should start a wave 2 up that should go up higher then most bears expect... meaning, it could go above my previous thoughts of 1320 spx.
Here's my thoughts if Scenario One plays out...
While the daily chart is about to get a crossover of the 50dma over the 100dma, confirming the new downtrend, I do expect that to be hit (currently around 1320) and pierced through. Call that area the last "bear trap", (as I'm sure there will be many before it), as one finally push up to a double top from the 1340 area should follow. However, by the time the market makes it up to the 50 and 100 day moving averages, they will likely be lower around 1310 or so.
I do expect a pullback in that zone, but I don't think it will be the start of wave 3 down, but instead just a wave 4 pullback from a 5 wave push up inside this larger wave 2 up. The charts are just too bearish right now and all those bears need to be squeezed out before the next larger wave 3 down starts... at least that's what my theory is on this Scenario.
The other possibility is Scenario Two...
The only thing that would make me think differently is if the rally was extremely fast... as in "less then 2 weeks". Then the necktie of resistance where the 50 and 100 day moving average cross would slam the market back down hard and fast... which would then be the likely start of larger wave 3 down.
However, I think a more longer and choppy ride up will occur, that takes 3-5 weeks... allowing the daily chart to move from the -15 area on the MACD's to the positive 10-15 area (Scenario One). That would turn the weekly chart back up and the Full Stocastic's would make a short lived hook pattern like the June-July period of 2010. This would allow for another wave down as the Histogram bars move up putting in a higher low (making a positive divergence) while the market makes a lower low (the 200ma around 1150 would be my best guess for a target bottom).
Here how I see it all playing out...
The "reverse engineering" thoughts are that we start will the week of October 23rd as being the start of the Wave 3, of 3, of 3, of 3, etc... and work our way back. Since we have likely topped for the year I'd say that we are now in Primary Wave 3 down, ending Primary Wave 2 up from the March 2009 low at 666 spx. Then I'd speculate that the first Major Wave 1 down will conclude around the 200ma around 1150 spx. From there we should rally back up for Major Wave 2 into October. A likely target would be the 5oma ,or 20ma (on the weekly chart again).
Ok, then we should start the first Minor Wave down inside of Major Wave 3 down (inside of Primary Wave 3 down), and bounce back up at some point prior to the week of October 23rd for that Minor Wave 2 to end. Then we should have Minor Wave 3 down, inside of Major Wave 3, inside of Primary Wave 3 start... which should be the most powerful wave since the first Great Depression in 1929!
This is where you should see a 1000 point drop in one week happen... yeah, scary stuff! It all centered around the Elenin (Planet X or Nibiru) crossing between the Earth and the Sun causing an massive Pole Shift wiping out 80-90% of the world population. Will it happen, or is it just a hoax that the Illuminati created to bring on the end times prophecy foretold in the Bible? I can't answer that of course, but if it is just a hoax, it's the best magic trick these evil reptilian gangsters have done yet!
Here's a video explaining the path of Elenin, according to the NASA website, (which is of course controlled by the Illuminati), so that begs one to wonder why they are making the information available to the public? Do they want to create fear on purpose so they can bring about the end of the world? By giving people access to the site they are encouraging us sheep to spread this horrible news around the internet... which serves their agenda with the creation of the "New World Order", where we will all be "chipped" and monitored 24/7... for our one safety of course. LOL!
However, there is the other side of the story from people like Dolores Canon who believes that the good Aliens (the Pleiadeans... or Angels?) will protect Earth from a pole shift happening as everyone thinks will occur. According to her, we are splitting into another different earth and this new earth will a wonderful place. Here's her story in this video below. One incredible woman she is, and someone I respect and believe is telling the truth as she knows it. I would truly love to met her and learn how to heal people like she does.
There is also the insider "whistleblower" Dan Burisch that works inside Majestic 12, the government agency assigned to investigate all UFO crashes since the 1947 Roswell, New Mexico event. There was even a TV Series called "Dark Skies" that was all about what Majestic 12 did. According to Burisch, we are going down a different timeline then the one that the world is destroyed by a polar shift. In that timeline, Hilary Clinton was president and assassinated while in office. She looked into the "Looking Glass" stargate and seen this in her future, but Obama won the election which makes Burisch believe we are on another timeline. This new timeline doesn't have the world experiencing a polar shift and killing billions (which is good news for us of course).
This first video is about Dan's history and his abduction as a young boy...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhK3Os_eE4g
This video goes more into his part in Majestic 12, and his communication with J-rod alien...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYpbzHltJc8&NR=1
The conclusion to this interview talks about the Men in Black...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nn5-PATk6I
This one talks about the stargates and the different timelines...
More about the timelines and the stargates...
Putting this all together with the rituals that the Illuminati Reptilians are trying to make happen, leads me to believe that any event that happens (or not?) will still make this October the ugliest one in the history of the Stock Market! Regardless of whether or not the Elenin event happens or not, the market is still doomed. The gangsters will eventually be forced to crash the market to destroy America as planned, and wipeout all the derivatives that they created indebting the public for generations to come. They know it's not possible to pay the debt, so they must eliminate it with the coming crash.
Moving on to the short term charts...
With Monday having double POMO, and the daily charts looking ready to point up, we could have a big rally occur. The 60 minute charts now have a 3 point positive divergence which also leads me to believe a strong move up is coming Monday. The dollar also hit a major resistance level on the weekly chart, and should go back down too. Then there is the extreme... and I mean extreme, put to call ratio. The bottom line is that too many people are way too bearish right now. Everyone can't be on the same side of the trade, or else there wouldn't be a market to trade.
So, if you are a bear, you might only have a few days this week to exit your position before wave 2 up squeezes all the bears. Since the 60 minute chart is pointing down on the histogram bars, as well as the 30 minute chart, I'd guess that early Monday might be the low for the week. An "inverse head and shoulders" pattern looks to be forming now, and should push the market up for several weeks.
I do think it will be choppy, but overall I expect the short term trend to be UP for now. I don't know if it will be Scenario One or Two, as one has us going to about 1310 and the other to about 1350, but we should be able to get a better idea once the move up starts. After it is finished, again I think we will go down to about the 1150 area at the 200ma on the weekly chart.
This is looking a lot like the fall period in 2007, with the September-November 2008 period coming this October. Right now we are above the 200ma on the weekly, but once it goes below it... look out for the "crash of all crashes" to start!
Red
Great post, as always Red.
As I type (0620 NY time) the futures are down 5.6 pts, so the open should be interesting to see. Unfortunately I am on UTC +10, so I always miss the “live” action.
Your site is a great place to catch up…
Thanks.
Thanks Jed… I haven’t seen you in awhile. Â Nice to know you are still around.
Great post. I got us pegged for a B wave up on DOW weekly …either way, we both looking up short term! thanks again!
SPY fp this morning…127.30.
I went ahead and looked at the Open Interest for JULY and it appears that SPY 132 is the ceiling.
Yeah, I’m not sure about the final top high of this wave 2 up, but the first major hurdle for the bulls should be around the 1310 spx area… which is close to your 132 spy level.
yupyup, just posted some charts and the opex ceiling
http://sharkmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/06/i-spy-spy-132.html
SLV Hour chart:Â http://stk.ly/ilu9dJ
Looks like the rally is on gang… I hope all you bears out there made some nice money on the move down and are now in cash waiting to re-short (unless you switched to being a bull?… LOL). I still think our first major resistance is around the 1310 area and finally the 1350 level.
does June gloom last all month? yes, it usually does…
You got that right Red, more upside tomorrow…….:)
VIX crashed as expected after the FP as reported on my site on Friday. It hit the print at 1 EST.
On the video, Red talks about this being P3. But Red, we haven’t even cracked the 200 day moving average and bearishness on multiple indicators is through the ceiling. Now the 200 day MA might give way here, but at what cost for the bears? They’ve taken WAY TOO MUCH TIME to get there, and built up WAY TOO MUCH BEARISHNESS.
I don’t buy that this is P2 of a bigger bear market.
This is one of the most hated stock market rallies in US history. Until people start really LOVING this market and not crying “P3!” or “Recession” every time we get a small correction, then maybe I’ll get bearish. My target for NDX remains 3500 and here is why.
BB I agree. Ive lost a shit load over the last couple of years fighting this and i have capitulated over the last few months – the only direction this market is going is up. It’s called inflation. If you guys want to get short then your only option is currencies. There may well be further crises to come but I just don’t think the action will centre on indices. Sure indices will certainly experience pull back – but it’s still going to be a case of BTFDip. The money printing just won’t let up in whatever form it takes. Look at all the bad news that keeps coming out and nothing is stopping this baby. We all know it’s engineered, but that’s the way it has always been. The bottom line is, we are all trading to make cash and if we know it’s going up, what’s the point in persisting every week hoping for another massive crash 2008 style? This chap has been pretty much spot on to date http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28641.htmlÂ
BB and Blonder… I just don’t think it’s possible to continue printing money that will continue to rally the market. Â It’s like a drug addict that takes more and more drugs to get the same high. Â At some point the drugs he takes won’t get him high, but instead just keep him from crashing. Â Then finally NO amount of drugs will work and he crashes. Â The market will do the same…
and eventually the addict overdoes and the body can no longer take it anymore..in this case..the body is the dollar. If QE doesnt crash the dollar, oil prices going to 200 will…cause oil is priced in the dollar and if oil goes that high, it will go at the dollar’s expense or vice versa..either way..i believe the dollar will collapse along with the american standard of living …lindsey williams says it will happen by end of 2012 and martin armstrong by 2016. In Gold we Trust
SPY Resistance line:Â http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/spy-resistance-line.html
Wow, I have never seen the Nasdaq so obviously manipulated. Are the pumpers trying to advertise the fact that they are manipulating it?
Typical bear squeeze I believe. Â There must have been more shorts in the Nasdaq then the rest of the market I’d say.
SLV chart:Â http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/slv-moving-towards-resistance-line.html
Well gang… we should see a “pause” day tomorrow as the short term charts are overbought and need to be reset. It’s possible that we sell off some to make some type of “B wave” down, which would also put in a right shoulder on an “inverse head and shoulder” pattern that looks to be forming now.
However, after any dip we get, I do expect it to rally back up more later in the week. I’m still not sure if it will stop around 1310 or continue higher to about 1350, but my gut tells me the latter. They need to rally higher if they want all the bears squeezed out before the next move down, and I just don’t think the bears will get off the ride at 1310.
i think its safe to buy the stocks dips and double bottoms again… that would take the spx above 1310 eventually
Pause Day, don’t think so, rally to continue…:)
When I say “pause”, I mean that it could be slightly up or slight down, but no big move either way. Â So, yes… I agree that the rally will continue, but tomorrow should not be another huge up day like today.
Just keep in mind that the Madman still has to crush commodities, and take some out of the SPX with it. Buy this dip, and don’t hesitate to sell out when the time comes. The money will go away for a while, and it’s not going to come back without more selling.
Edit: The flash crash taught people what happens when everyone is 100% invested and no more money appears out of thin air……
APA FP
Â
This reminds me of the May 31st action.  The hockey stick pattern seen before collapse.  A certain little fractal is now being followed on a day by day basis now.    Daily RSIs and $nymo have enough firepower for a big move now.
If it’s just a pause day or slight down day tomorrow then something else is going on.  But crude oil, gold and silver hardly budged today.  Most of the indices got to their 20 day averages today and the $vix interestingly found support at its 20 day average.
There is a potentially destabilizing parliamentary vote in Greece tonight and yet the markets rallied into it.  What is there left to celebrate?
Junes are seasonally down into the end of the month particularly in years that end in 1.
It would be fitting to see the high before collapse on the summer solstice during the triple eclipse period.
Just realized 23–8—transcribes to 5 8 and we’re 23years 8 months from a certain stock market episode. The 237 combo was getting my attention and couldn’t quite grasp the significance of 238 until now.
Mr. Topstep agrees (today’s vid):
http://mrtopstep.com/category/video/
Tread carefully in this market……
The euro basically reversed on the Greek parliamentary vote.  A sell on the news item? Let’s see if this selloff continues throughout the night.
I came to my 23–8===5-8 revelation culling over the game logs for the Stanley Cup finals. I heard there were some interesting goals numbers during the series.  (Basically, Boston was dominating the scoring even though they were only tied with Vancouver going into Game 7).
It turns out that Boston scored 23 goals to Boston’s 8 for the series.(I was told that it was 19–8Â going into Game 7 which piqued my interest because that is an IKEA number—and look I formed 1987 and I didn’t even intend to do so)Â Is this another way the insiders are giving validation to the 238 number????
I don’t know enough about hockey to piece much together.  Boston is apparently one of the original 6 teams in hockey.     Â
SPX Chart:Â http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/s-500-daily-and-hour-chart-analysis.html
Well, as I’m sure everyone is all aware, the market is just waiting for Bernanke at 12:30 today.  Still, I’m not expecting a big move either way by the end of the day.  There should be some short term volatility though, but I don’t think it will effect the market by the days’ close.
At some point we should have a wave “B” down (or smaller wave 2?), and then a push up toward the 1350 area. Â I suspect that it will come around the 1310 area. Â While that could be the end of this larger wave 2 up move, my gut tells me NO, and that it will just be a short lived pullback. Â But, I’m sure it can still be safely shorted for a decent move down. Â If I wrong, then it will turn into the larger wave 3 down move and really be profitable.
Refresh page for new video update…
AAPL Chart:Â http://stk.ly/kPfqV0
I leave my account open at night to watch the trading afterhours on the ES, and sometimes I see “rogue ticks” to strange levels. Maybe they are FP’s or just late fills… I really don’t know. But, I just seen a quick flash of -12.50 with the last price at 1276.75, showing -3.75 down.  I’ll forget it tomorrow, so I’m posting it just in case we see a sell off happen. If so, I’ll be looking for -12.50 as the bottom.
Are you gonna turn into one of those mountain men guys with the 3 foot long beard saying, “I saw’ll it dammit! It was right there!” Just bustin your chops. I wonder if it would be possible to just video it and then fast forward later and look for flickers?
Just to you clarify…12.50 down from which level? 12.50 down from 1276.75, for a target of 1264.25?
Yes, that was about the level that the market was at when I seen it… but it only lasted for one second, so I don’t make too much of it.
You never know…I see a small SPY print from Monday before hours @126.17, which might loosely correspond to it. The SPY has been hitting those print groups pretty accurately lately. The ones on TorS.
Could be? Hard too say? I only seen it for a second. Regardless, I think we still have more upside before the big move down. At least the 1310 level, but my gut says 1350… only because I know how these gangsters like to fool the masses. The 1310 area is too obvious, and everyone will be shorting there… that’s why I think they will go higher.
They tried to press me but they couldn’t! They tried to keep me down but they failed!
ES Hour chart analysis:Â http://stk.ly/mT6J5s
Bear trap!
Actually, it looks more like the last 4 days of BS rally was a bull trap.
Crude Oil chart:Â http://stk.ly/ixP014
Huge gap on dailiy SPY and 15 min VIX. Seriously doubt the Bears can keep the market down very long
I see why it started yesterday………looks like the new Greek Finance Minister is refusing to make concessions, and the oil story is just a garbage cover story. Damn, Mr. Topstep was right on the money with their back & fill call back down on the SPX.
If they keep these wild swings going, it’s likely to take a bit longer to get up to 1350… or a least 1310, not sure which one is correct? But, so far this still fits the pattern for a “B” wave down… although it was a little deeper then I expected.
I think 1350 probably out of the question, but 1325 still might be in the cards? EFTs are going crazy trying to push this thing back up, yowsa!
Yes, I think you might be right. It really going to depend on how long it takes, and where the MACD’s, Full STO’s, Slow STO’s, and Histogram bars are when we hit the 1310-1320 area (and of course it’s still just a guessing game… LOL). This move down was quite stronger and doesn’t bode well for the bulls. The bears really slapped them hard today. Quite a battle going on here, and the bulls case for 1350 was certainly weakened today.
Â
Looking at some Gann angles, EOM may be a pivot, which would mean a week-long rally straight up to get to another local high. Guessing game is right! Tug of war going on now, almost like another element was just added to the mix. Someone knows something, and is going rogue. China is in a credit freeze and now margin calls abound in energy. This crude oil move is pissing off a lot of people and I think the govt may lose some pawns today…remember that without freshly printed cash, the manipulation is limited.
No free money + credit freeze + margin calls = ???
Yes, without the free money the gangsters can’t keep the market ponzi scheme working, and it will collapse. Â I’ll be shorting heavily if we get up to the 1310-1320 area, where the necktie of resistance is. Â Even if that’s not the final high in this move up, it should still produce a nice leg down.
In regards to time, i think the bulls only have til 4pm NEXT friday, which is end of June. after that, i believe the bears will take control again. Because we are about to start the C wave up on the daily SPY and by the end of next week completed the B wave up on the weekly. After that, look for a WEEKLY C WAVE DOWN! The market will take no prisoners on that wave…
Yes Shark, I agree with you on that one. Â While I’m still not sure if we only go to the 1310-1320 area, or on up to 1350, I’d say that the rally will be over sometime next week.
the oil story is a continuation of a fed reserve plan, to lower oil prices. it’s probably based on helping japan’s recovery efforts.
Wow, hard core. Negative t-bill rates at the top of the market!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/1-month-bill-offered-0005-3-month-0000
Man, there is a lot of bears getting squeezed right now! We could be getting started in a “C wave” up? Not good for trapped bears.
Today is hilarious! So with only an hour left, they have to pump the market, and what do they do as a cover story? BS story about a Greek 5-year plan. This is great! I wonder how long after market close they come out and say the story is false. These guys should write B-movies for Hollywood.
The PUMP just happened to hit congestion exactly at the prints from before hours this morning. What a coincidence! Rule #1, take the money and run, hah! Yeeaaah!
Isn’t is funny how this “news related events” match up perfectly with the charts form an ABC move up to complete a larger wave 2 up pattern? Â Great timing as always… LOL!
Exactly – I was wondering how they were going to hit those morning prints!
The 4 day rally and 2 down days, as a group, makes me really suspicious. I’m thinking of different scenarios because Madman Ben and the Criminal Bunch had months to figure out this thing.
What if they came up with a cost estimate to determine how much it would cost to levitate the market thru the summer (until QE3) and they made QE Lite just big enough to do so? 6 weeks of selloff to get the market oversold by the time QE2 ends, and then QE Lite just big enough to carry it. 7 POMOs a month for the forseeable future. Just a thought…the market SHOULD fall off a cliff after the big money is gone, but with so much control, I’m really wary about this one.
On the one hand, Madman Ben HAS to kill commodities, and tank the market to do so. On the other hand, govt manipulation (like today) might be enough to kill commodities……this is a tough one…
By the way Red, NICE CATCH on that rogue tick yesterday. It was right on the money.
here’s 2 days ago qqq long chart, it was close enough.
indicates go short today
I have a “sell” print at 55.64 also.
seems good, with all this greek BS on the wire everyday…elites have to announce their next moves, according to Red, and boy, they sure are announcing, loud and clear:)
i went long XOM, then after close saw the bull hammer, which means 77’s on friday…i have to set stops on this one, i got a great entry intraday, and need to capture the profits, and try to get back in again on friday’s intraday low.
ORCL earnings, down in AH. probably takes FFIV CRM VMW down with it. so there’s 4 stocks down in the qqq for friday
june gloom, usually lasts until the last day of june. i’m using a trade sideways approach, shorting stocks that pop, and going long stocks that dip…so far so good.
Tomorrow is Social Network Day.  A day they have been advertising heavily.  6-24===2-4,2004 or 6,24.  Since a certain little indicator isn’t in the crash zone, it probably won’t be a CRASH day but it can be a beauty if they crash it through the 200 day average. Â
Â
It’s amazing that I haven’t seen anyone consider today’s action as 1 and 2 waves of the unfolding big wave down especially on the usually mega-bearish E-wave board.
Nasdaq held up better because 1) had already pierced its 200 day average and 2) it never reached its 20 day average as the other indices did.   It is now above its 200 day average and now it can crash through it in unison with the Dow,SP and Russell 2000.
Crude oil did have a big drop today making a new low for the move.  Gold was down big for the first time since probably early May and made a mega bearish TD flip along with silver.Â
There is more numerology for tomorrow but I will get into that later.  Today is also 580 trading days from the 3-6-9 low and 37 tds off the May 2 high.  Tomorrow is 53 calendar days off the 5-2 high. Obviously today was 52 days off the 5-2 high.  53, the power number.  5×3===15 and we’re 235 years from the birth of an event/organization important to the insiders (on 5-1, 235 years ago)
Â
I don’t think any numbers or rituals are of importance enough for tomorrow to have a big sell off Geccko, as I believe we are still going up to at least the 1310-1320 area before the big move down. So, next week could be the really important one, as I expect that area to be hit by then. Â
Daggone.. DOW weekly RSI is forming the bottoming “Fat Woman on a Moped” pattern. Need to close positive this week…
The market is really hard too predict right now, as both the down and up moves are very large. I’m not sure which way it’s going to break next week?
Support level for Crude oil:Â http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/support-level-for-crude-oil.html
SPY Print 2:11 128.27
Hmmm… I don’t see it on my screen? Thanks for the update, and do you have a screen shot?
http://screencast.com/t/UtkJqz9f
Thanks…
np http://screencast.com/t/aOX7h2s3psy
We posted this Ellipse of Doom months back, and thought the “Egg” dead
when that overthrow occurred, now it is back in play.   For a number of
reasons, thinking to go long ES next Sunday/Monday.
Keep in mind, the banksters don’t want anyone else to profit in this
nearly zero sum game.  That is why the big moves come at night and on
weekends.
As per prior theory, rally into July 4th weekend, and then Kansas Go Bye-Bye (KGB)
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/06/fibonacci-time-relation-to-fear-factor.html
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/06/zoom-on-egg-of-doom.html
I’ve been waiting on a decent bounce all week Steveo, and I’m still not sure if we are going to get one… at least until we go lower first, to retest the 1240 area. Â I hope you are right on that call, but I’m having my doubts on any real bounce starting.
Great stuff as usual.Â
I think it is interesting what has happened in the last week, Greece problems, Bernanke admiting US is crappy, and oil problems too. A crazy week, I am guessing there is a bigger move coming on the market.
Been following this guy for a while, his trading advice is killer and is very accurate…. latest video – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKP90DrpfzQ
Thanks for the video Jestex, and for stopping by…
very nice jesterx, thanx a million. i like your analysis a lot! since i’ve been following you the past 6 month’s… you’ve been spot on.
SPX Weekend Analysis:Â http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/s-500-weekend-analysis.html
this one there’s 2 schools of thoughts. GLD might be headed much lower, which in turn would make ABX go below the green area. the other side argues, even GLD at lower prices, the price is already in the stock, and the support holds at the green area. who knows…i went long, we’ll see.
XOM 200 day is 76.2, for a second intraday Friday, i thought it might try to get to 76.2.
i went long at 77.4, got crushed 60 cents last 5 minutes of the trading trade. good news is, people bought 1/2 $billion worth of shares in after hours on friday at 76.8. they get to control the bid. so the bid will be above 76.8 Â on Monday. this is as good as a fake print.(extremely big block buys in AH –bought in 100 $million lots, and 1/4 $billion lots)..da dum…
i captured the profits on XOM from thursday low to fri high… had a bad intraday re-entry on fri, i gave a little back…
New post…
http://reddragonleo.com/2011/06/26/time-to-bounce-or-crash-that-is-the-question/