Thursday update for 08-18-2011... Stock Market Crash on Friday looks likely to me...
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paFQZNCwWFQ)
Next week should be interesting as the market makers whip the bulls and bears around to shake the remain one's out before option expiration next Friday.
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50WwcKSOEME)
Looking at the charts the market is very overbought on the short term, and still doesn't have any positive divergence on the daily chart with the weekly and monthly still pointing down hard. I just can't see a typical rally back up like we are used too having. The longer term and stronger charts should put too much downward pressure to allow this market to rally up too far. In the past, there was POMO... and life was good (for the bulls). But now there isn't! So how far can a short covering rally go without the Fed helping?
My guess... a lot shorter then everyone expects! I'm seeing people calling for anywhere between 1260-1300 spx for this major wave 2 up... but I still don't see this major wave 1 down as complete yet. While I'm not a big follower of Elliottwave, the market does seem to move in 3 wave or 5 wave patterns... not 4. I see the 5 sub-waves of major wave 1 (call them minor waves) starting at 1356 on July 7th, ending on July 18th at 1295. Then 2 up until July 22nd at 1346, with 3 down ending at 1101 on August 9th... which means we should be in wave 4 up right now... not major wave 2.
So, while major wave 2 should be a large wave up and possibly retrace 50-61.8% of the entire move down from 1356, I think we need to finish major wave 1 down first. I don't think it's finished yet. And since I think we are still in minor wave 4 up, I think it will be about a long as minor wave 2 up was. So, since wave 2 up started at 1295 and ended at 1346, that's 51 points... which means that 4 up could have already ended on Friday as it is already past 51 points with 77 points from the 1101 low to Friday's close.
Now, throwing out EW predictions and just looking the technical analysis side of the picture, I still see the same thing. The move down was just to powerful for a huge rally to start. There needs to be at least a retest of the 1101 low (but usually it will go lower) to complete the 5th wave down in my opinion. There was after market low on the ES of around 1077 at 10:10 pm on the 8th of August... and I think that is the target for the 5th wave down.
The VXX has a Bull Flag on it...
That's the other thing that bugs me... the VXX, or the "Fear Gauge". It has a bull flag on the 60 minute chart and the daily chart. It's not conforming this rally up. Yes, it's pulled back some, but it looks more like a triangle forming, which should breakout to the upside when it reaches the point of the apex of that triangle... which should be on Monday or Tuesday of next week. This triangle is on the 60 minute chart and the daily chart... which again, tells me the market isn't likely to explode upwards toward 1260-1300 as everyone is expecting it too.
However, on the bullish side of things, the weekly chart did put in a hammer candle... which means this week should close positive. That's at least as far as the "statistics" go... which is only a representation of what has happened in the past when similar patterned occurred. So, assuming this time is just like the last several years, then we should close the week out positive. I'm just not so sure that "this time" is the same as previously? Maybe... or maybe not? How long have we had POMO money in the market? Since about 2008... right?
Ok, and what about 10 years before that period? Was the economy in good shape or bad shape? One has too consider those facts when compared the patterns to the past. I think some one would be wise to compare the bottoming tail candle patterns to the period most similar to now... 1929-1940, and then see how accurate they were. Comparing the current patterns to the previous 15 years, which were mostly "Bullish", is an accurate enough picture for me to fully say that "this week" will close positive.
Yes, it's option expiration week, which is usually an UP week as they squeeze out the bears by making their "puts" expire worthless, but I'm still not so sure that this week will end positive. The bear market is back, and we shouldn't continue to look at this market through the eyes of the bull. The last 3 years of manipulation in the bear market rally has clouded our judgement and a may have us continuing to "buy the dip", only to see it come back to haunt us.
I know a lot of people are expecting a big rally next week, but I'm going to take the other side of that as I expect Monday/Tuesday to be down. I think the VXX will break out to the upside from the triangle it formed and that the 60 minute chart on the market will roll back down and produce more selling. That would allow the daily chart to get a positive divergence setup on it, which is needed to start our major wave 2 up I believe.
Expect the unexpected...
That's one thing I've learned from the gangsters over the last few years, and that's another reason I'm still short term bearish (meaning early next week). After minor wave 5th down is complete, which will complete major wave 1 down... then I'll be short term bullish for major wave 2 up to happen (not that I'll likely go long, as sitting in cash is my preferred position).
Let's also look at gold, as it still seems to want to continue higher (as Lindsey Williams predicted). That's also a sign that this market has found it's short term bottom yet. While I do expect gold to sell off at some point, right now it's clearly wanting to go higher. That's why I still think we'll have another leg down first, and then a major wave 2 up.
Last week produced the largest swings in the history of the stock market, going up and down 500 Dow points several times before the week ended. You have to ask yourself... "how many longs and shorts are there left in the market now"? I'd guess... "Not Many!". The market makers have surely stopped out all the bears by now, as last week was insane. I just can't imagine that they still have too pin the SPY at a "much higher" level to make the puts expire worthless now. Some how I think they have squared away their positions where they don't need to pin it at so ridiculously higher level like they used too do all the time in the past.
That's just guessing on my part of course, as I don't know what level they plan to pin it at this coming Friday... but I think it's going to surprise everyone! Assuming that this opx week is like the last dozen we've had is a mistake in my opinion. Things really are different this time, as there is no more POMO money to support the market during these counter trend rallies... at least not yet.
There are some bullish signs though. One is that the insiders were buying last week, which usually means a short term bottom is near. Another is the short selling ban that several countries implemented last week. This never works of course, but it usually produces a short term rally as shorts are forced to close their positions allowing the market some room to breath.
You can read the story here (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/08/us-greece-ban-idUSTRE7773SR20110808)
That story is for Greece, but other countries have taken similar measures to try and stop the blood bath in the markets across the world. This will be bullish for awhile, but won't work in the end. Notice the time limit for the short selling ban... "two months". After that they will allow it again... right in time for October! Hmmm... interesting to say the least. They banned short selling in 2008 too, but the market still crashed. Will this time be different? I doubt it...
This tells me that the market will likely chop around wildly until late October and complete major wave one down, and two up... allowing major wave 3 down to start after the ban is lifted. Right on schedule for the end of the Legatus meeting I'd guess. Looks like we are still on schedule for the planned stock market crash I'd say. I'll have to give Reinhardt credit for his exposure of the timing of the major turns in the market based on the Legatus Pilgrimage dates, as he's still correct with his calls.
Maybe he didn't get too much exposure on the Jesse Ventura show "Conspiracy Theories" after all? Once too many sheep find out their plans, they have too change them... or else they could rob the sheep of all their money. But, I guess the mass majority of the sheep are still to busy watching Opera's last show, American Idol, or latest fictional reality TV show to notice. That's why the Illuminati Reptilian Gangster's continue to laugh at us sheep... as we're still too dumb to wakeup and see the truth.
But, on another note, Benjamin Fulford has some uplifting news it seems...
In his latest post he states that the evil cabal elite gangsters are slowly but surely failing at their plans to wipeout 80% of the population to maintain control of us sheep, and instead they are deciding to work with the good guys (the white dragon society) in exchange for freedom from their crimes basically. It's not easy to get rid of a parasite that has woven its' way so deep into every culture of the world. It takes time to get them out, but things are looking better for humanity right now, and should improve tremendously over the coming years ahead.
However, the short term is still going to have hardships as the gangsters destroy the economy and the stock market. That is something that even the white dragon society can't stop... or at least "won't" stop. It needs to happen to clean out the system and allow for a new more beautiful world to start. So, it looks like the coming stock market crash will still happen... just as the Illuminati gangsters planned would happen.
We can only hope that Ben is correct and these gangsters won't get the opportunity to buy up all the assets of the world for pennies on the dollar and then really tighten their control and enslavement of humanity. Remember, these evil reptilians want to round us all up and put us in FEMA camps... only to murder us all in some Nazi style assassination. I'm with Ben on this, as I don't think they will succeed. Too many other things point to that "NOT Happening"... nor the Elenin event that I'm now believing is being spread by the Illuminati to scare us all into believing it, and therefore they can stage the event and kill off 80% of the population like they want to do.
Doesn't is seem odd to you that anyone can get access to NASA's website to track Elenin's predicted path? NASA is certainly under the Illuminati's control and they could classified all that data as "top secret" if they didn't want the public to find out about it. But they didn't do that, and instead allowed everyone to see the data and spread it around the internet. That too me... means they want it spread around!
The bottom line... I don't believe it!
I think the only thing bad we are going to see is the stock market crash, but not the pole shift that would happen from Elenin passing between the Sun and the Earth later this year. The more people expose this, the more I believe it's not real and just planned by the Illuminati to fulfill their plans kill most of us off. However, they could still set off a nuke in America as they need another false flag event to start a war with some third world country that had nothing to do with it. This interesting video below shows that they are planning it... but will they succeed? I certainly hope not!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lkSWqR1qAU)
Ok, that's enough doom and gloom for now. Let's all focus on the positive, as the more exposure these evil plans get, the less likely they will be able to make them happen. I don't want anything like that to occur, as that would be horrible for everyone... not just the millions that would die in it, but the fake war afterwards too! I pray it doesn't happen and Ben Fulford's sources succeed in their plans to bring down the evil empire and free humanity.
Let us all hope that the FP on the Vix of 349 isn't real, because it would probably take a nuke going off to get it up that high. While I'm sure that's the plan, just like the 34.65 FP on SPY is the downside target, I really hope they fail this time around. Right now they are still in control of this stock market and appear to be on schedule for the largest crash in history (the multiple wave 3's) to start right after the end of the Legatus meeting this coming week of October 23rd, I just pray they don't create a nuclear false flag event to make it happen. Just let the charts play out, as the market will still fall... just don't kill millions of people to blame it on.
If this happens, the you can bet that the oil routes in the middle east will be destroyed in the war that follows and the price per barrel will go up to $200 or more as Lindsey Williams said it would. Remember, he's getting his information straight from one of the evil Illuminati elites. Of course I'm sure they are using Lindsey to spread information they want told, but I think Lindsey knows that and is still trying to help as many people as possible by getting them to stand up together in masses and stop the reptilians from making these plans happen.
Who will win out with evil game the Illuminati are playing? Will Lindsey Williams wake up enough sheep to stop the empire? Will Ben Fulford's "White Dragon Society" be able to use the "force" to defeat Darth Bush, Lord Rockefeller, and Count Kissinger? Or will we sheep be slaughter once again like it's happened so many times in the past... The next few months are going to tell the "tale" of humanity's future.
May the "Force" be with the "light workers"...