Time For Option Expiration Manipulation…

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Thursday update for 08-18-2011... Stock Market Crash on Friday looks likely to me...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paFQZNCwWFQ)

Red

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Next week should be interesting as the market makers whip the bulls and bears around to shake the remain one's out before option expiration next Friday.

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50WwcKSOEME)

Looking at the charts the market is very overbought on the short term, and still doesn't have any positive divergence on the daily chart with the weekly and monthly still pointing down hard.  I just can't see a typical rally back up like we are used too having.  The longer term and stronger charts should put too much downward pressure to allow this market to rally up too far.  In the past, there was POMO... and life was good (for the bulls).  But now there isn't!  So how far can a short covering rally go without the Fed helping?

My guess... a lot shorter then everyone expects!  I'm seeing people calling for anywhere between 1260-1300 spx for this major wave 2 up... but I still don't see this major wave 1 down as complete yet.  While I'm not a big follower of Elliottwave, the market does seem to move in 3 wave or 5 wave patterns... not 4.  I see the 5 sub-waves of major wave 1 (call them minor waves) starting at 1356 on July 7th, ending on July 18th at 1295.  Then 2 up until July 22nd at 1346, with 3 down ending at 1101 on August 9th... which means we should be in wave 4 up right now... not major wave 2.

So, while major wave 2 should be a large wave up and possibly retrace 50-61.8% of the entire move down from 1356, I think we need to finish major wave 1 down first.  I don't think it's finished yet.  And since I think we are still in minor wave 4 up, I think it will be about a long as minor wave 2 up was.  So, since wave 2 up started at 1295 and ended at 1346, that's 51 points... which means that 4 up could have already ended on Friday as it is already past 51 points with 77 points from the 1101 low to Friday's close.

Now, throwing out EW predictions and just looking the technical analysis side of the picture, I still see the same thing.  The move down was just to powerful for a huge rally to start.  There needs to be at least a retest of the 1101 low (but usually it will go lower) to complete the 5th wave down in my opinion.  There was after market low on the ES of around 1077 at 10:10 pm on the 8th of August... and I think that is the target for the 5th wave down.

The VXX has a Bull Flag on it...

That's the other thing that bugs me... the VXX, or the "Fear Gauge".  It has a bull flag on the 60 minute chart and the daily chart.  It's not conforming this rally up.  Yes, it's pulled back some, but it looks more like a triangle  forming, which should breakout to the upside when it reaches the point of the apex of that triangle... which should be on Monday or Tuesday of next week.  This triangle is on the 60 minute chart and the daily chart... which again, tells me the market isn't likely to explode upwards toward 1260-1300 as everyone is expecting it too.

However, on the bullish side of things, the weekly chart did put in a hammer candle... which means this week should close positive.  That's at least as far as the "statistics" go... which is only a representation of what has happened in the past when similar patterned occurred.  So, assuming this time is just like the last several years, then we should close the week out positive.  I'm just not so sure that "this time" is the same as previously?  Maybe... or maybe not?  How long have we had POMO money in the market?  Since about 2008... right?

Ok, and what about 10 years before that period?  Was the economy in good shape or bad shape?  One has too consider those facts when compared the patterns to the past.  I think some one would be wise to compare the bottoming tail candle patterns to the period most similar to now... 1929-1940, and then see how accurate they were.  Comparing the current patterns to the previous 15 years, which were mostly "Bullish", is an accurate enough picture for me to fully say that "this week" will close positive.

Yes, it's option expiration week, which is usually an UP week as they squeeze out the bears by making their "puts" expire worthless, but I'm still not so sure that this week will end positive.  The bear market is back, and we shouldn't continue to look at this market through the eyes of the bull.  The last 3 years of manipulation in the bear market rally has clouded our judgement and a may have us continuing to "buy the dip", only to see it come back to haunt us.

I know a lot of people are expecting a big rally next week, but I'm going to take the other side of that as I expect Monday/Tuesday to be down.  I think the VXX will break out to the upside from the triangle it formed and that the 60 minute chart on the market will roll back down and produce more selling.  That would allow the daily chart to get a positive divergence setup on it, which is needed to start our major wave 2 up I believe.

Expect the unexpected...

That's one thing I've learned from the gangsters over the last few years, and that's another reason I'm still short term bearish (meaning early next week).  After minor wave 5th down is complete, which will complete major wave 1 down... then I'll be short term bullish for major wave 2 up to happen (not that I'll likely go long, as sitting in cash is my preferred position).

Let's also look at gold, as it still seems to want to continue higher (as Lindsey Williams predicted).  That's also a sign that this market has found it's short term bottom yet.  While I do expect gold to sell off at some point, right now it's clearly wanting to go higher.  That's why I still think we'll have another leg down first, and then a major wave 2 up.

Last week produced the largest swings in the history of the stock market, going up and down 500 Dow points several times before the week ended.  You have to ask yourself... "how many longs and shorts are there left in the market now"?  I'd guess... "Not Many!".  The market makers have surely stopped out all the bears by now, as last week was insane.  I just can't imagine that they still have too pin the SPY at a "much higher" level to make the puts expire worthless now.  Some how I think they have squared away their positions where they don't need to pin it at so ridiculously higher level like they used too do all the time in the past.

That's just guessing on my part of course, as I don't know what level they plan to pin it at this coming Friday... but I think it's going to surprise everyone!  Assuming that this opx week is like the last dozen we've had is a mistake in my opinion.  Things really are different this time, as there is no more POMO money to support the market during these counter trend rallies... at least not yet.

There are some bullish signs though.  One is that the insiders were buying last week, which usually means a short term bottom is near.  Another is the short selling ban that several countries implemented last week.  This never works of course, but it usually produces a short term rally as shorts are forced to close their positions allowing the market some room to breath.

You can read the story here (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/08/us-greece-ban-idUSTRE7773SR20110808)

That story is for Greece, but other countries have taken similar measures to try and stop the blood bath in the markets across the world.  This will be bullish for awhile, but won't work in the end.  Notice the time limit for the short selling ban... "two months".  After that they will allow it again... right in time for October!  Hmmm... interesting to say the least.  They banned short selling in 2008 too, but the market still crashed.  Will this time be different?  I doubt it...

This tells me that the market will likely chop around wildly until late October and complete major wave one down, and two up... allowing major wave 3 down to start after the ban is lifted.  Right on schedule for the end of the Legatus meeting I'd guess.  Looks like we are still on schedule for the planned stock market crash I'd say.  I'll have to give Reinhardt credit for his exposure of the timing of the major turns in the market based on the Legatus Pilgrimage dates, as he's still correct with his calls.

Maybe he didn't get too much exposure on the Jesse Ventura show "Conspiracy Theories" after all?  Once too many sheep find out their plans, they have too change them... or else they could rob the sheep of all their money.  But, I guess the mass majority of the sheep are still to busy watching Opera's last show, American Idol, or latest fictional reality TV show to notice.  That's why the Illuminati Reptilian Gangster's continue to laugh at us sheep... as we're still too dumb to wakeup and see the truth.

But, on another note, Benjamin Fulford has some uplifting news it seems...

In his latest post he states that the evil cabal elite gangsters are slowly but surely failing at their plans to wipeout 80% of the population to maintain control of us sheep, and instead they are deciding to work with the good guys (the white dragon society) in exchange for freedom from their crimes basically.  It's not easy to get rid of a parasite that has woven its' way so deep into every culture of the world.  It takes time to get them out, but things are looking better for humanity right now, and should improve tremendously over the coming years ahead.

(Ben's latest post... http://kauilapele.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/ben-fulford-august-9-2011-the-phoenix-will-arise-from-the-ashes-of-the-old-world-order)

However, the short term is still going to have hardships as the gangsters destroy the economy and the stock market.  That is something that even the white dragon society can't stop... or at least "won't" stop.  It needs to happen to clean out the system and allow for a new more beautiful world to start.  So, it looks like the coming stock market crash will still happen... just as the Illuminati gangsters planned would happen.

We can only hope that Ben is correct and these gangsters won't get the opportunity to buy up all the assets of the world for pennies on the dollar and then really tighten their control and enslavement of humanity.  Remember, these evil reptilians want to round us all up and put us in FEMA camps... only to murder us all in some Nazi style assassination.  I'm with Ben on this, as I don't think they will succeed.  Too many other things point to that "NOT Happening"... nor the Elenin event that I'm now believing is being spread by the Illuminati to scare us all into believing it, and therefore they can stage the event and kill off 80% of the population like they want to do.

Doesn't is seem odd to you that anyone can get access to NASA's website to track Elenin's predicted path?  NASA is certainly under the Illuminati's control and they could classified all that data as "top secret" if they didn't want the public to find out about it.  But they didn't do that, and instead allowed everyone to see the data and spread it around the internet.  That too me...  means they want it spread around!

The bottom line... I don't believe it!

I think the only thing bad we are going to see is the stock market crash, but not the pole shift that would happen from Elenin passing between the Sun and the Earth later this year.  The more people expose this, the more I believe it's not real and just planned by the Illuminati to fulfill their plans kill most of us off.  However, they could still set off a nuke in America as they need another false flag event to start a war with some third world country that had nothing to do with it.  This interesting video below shows that they are planning it... but will they succeed?  I certainly hope not!

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lkSWqR1qAU)

Ok, that's enough doom and gloom for now.  Let's all focus on the positive, as the more exposure these evil plans get, the less likely they will be able to make them happen.  I don't want anything like that to occur, as that would be horrible for everyone... not just the millions that would die in it, but the fake war afterwards too!  I pray it doesn't happen and Ben Fulford's sources succeed in their plans to bring down the evil empire and free humanity.

Let us all hope that the FP on the Vix of 349 isn't real, because it would probably take a nuke going off to get it up that high.  While I'm sure that's the plan, just like the 34.65 FP on SPY is the downside target, I really hope they fail this time around.  Right now they are still in control of this stock market and appear to be on schedule for the largest crash in history (the multiple  wave 3's) to start right after the end of the Legatus meeting this coming week of October 23rd, I just pray they don't create a nuclear false flag event to make it happen.  Just let the charts play out, as the market will still fall... just don't kill millions of people to blame it on.

If this happens, the you can bet that the oil routes in the middle east will be destroyed in the war that follows and the price per barrel will go up to $200 or more as Lindsey Williams said it would.  Remember, he's getting his information straight from one of the evil Illuminati elites.  Of course I'm sure they are using Lindsey to spread information they want told, but I think Lindsey knows that and is still trying to help as many people as possible by getting them to stand up together in masses and stop the reptilians from making these plans happen.

Who will win out with evil game the Illuminati are playing?  Will Lindsey Williams wake up enough sheep to stop the empire?  Will Ben Fulford's "White Dragon Society" be able to use the "force" to defeat Darth Bush, Lord Rockefeller, and Count Kissinger?  Or will we sheep be slaughter once again like it's happened so many times in the past...  The next few months are going to tell the "tale" of humanity's future.

May the "Force" be with the "light workers"...

Red

794 COMMENTS

  1. It’s looking like the market is going to rollover Tuesday after the meeting between Germany and France about the debt problem.  If Germany just simply refuses to offer an financial assistance to France, then we should see another leg down in the market.

    • if germany doesn’t come up with a trillion in USD, one of these euro countries will default—
      if that happens, i’m not even sure 800 spx, is the support

    • if germany doesn’t come up with a trillion in USD, one of these euro countries will default—
      if that happens, i’m not even sure 800 spx, is the support

    • if germany doesn’t come up with a trillion in USD, one of these euro countries will default—
      if that happens, i’m not even sure 800 spx, is the support

  2. SPX Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_16.html

  3. Sweet November movie with charlize theron and keenu reeves—25 minutes into the movie, charlize does a scene that shows her back—and the bone structure in her back.
    look closely—she definitely has reptilian bone structure—it’s not a lighting trick…
     the scene slipped thru the reptillian censor nets—
    figure out a way to capture this scene on video, i’ll post it—camtasia can do it, but i don’t have that software.

  4. Sweet November movie with charlize theron and keenu reeves—25 minutes into the movie, charlize does a scene that shows her back—and the bone structure in her back.
    look closely—she definitely has reptilian bone structure—it’s not a lighting trick…
     the scene slipped thru the reptillian censor nets—
    figure out a way to capture this scene on video, i’ll post it—camtasia can do it, but i don’t have that software.

  5. Sweet November movie with charlize theron and keenu reeves—25 minutes into the movie, charlize does a scene that shows her back—and the bone structure in her back.
    look closely—she definitely has reptilian bone structure—it’s not a lighting trick…
     the scene slipped thru the reptillian censor nets—
    figure out a way to capture this scene on video, i’ll post it—camtasia can do it, but i don’t have that software.

    • Most Reptilian actress I have ever seen for sure.  And white South African, yikes, the worst of the worst.

      • i have this very cheap video capture software, it was free—i’ll try to capture it, and zip it, so it can be emailed. maybe red can post it. i’ll ask red if his email can handle a 10 mb email.

  6. Looks like nothing much is going to happen today, as the volume is pretty light right now.  While we could close negative for the day, it will just be re-setting the short term charts from their overbought conditions… which will allow another move higher later in the week.

    While I thought that “this time might be different”, and we would actually see some more big selling days, it’s not looking likely right now.  Of course things could change tomorrow, but right now we are on track for a typical opx manipulation week.

  7. Hey Red. I am usually on xtrenders and we had a chat about Fake prints last month. Did we get a FP of SPX 600 today? I see it on sit forexpf.ru SPX chart.

      • any pop ups should be shorted, either on the day, or intraday that’s my plan. on the qqq a 0.75% pop up, would be considered a short, on my charts

      • Fuckery, skulldugerry, lechery, it’s all the same on Wall St. But we do have a nice bearish wedgie. Play that one for a while…tomorrow may be a nice dip to buy for, well, a day or so. That is, if it bounces off the wedgie support.

  8. We have an astro match tomorrow and today (but most of the heavy hitting is tomorrow) to the 1987 crash but a certain little planet will be starting a stretch run through the zodiac tomorrow until it reaches its final destination on the crash date.   Let’s call it the Rooster Cogburn Express.   And our astro-match pattern for tomorrow.   Let’s just call it Transformers:  Dark Side of the Sun.   Supposedly the planet in question in 69 will be forming a grand cross if some of the little planets are included, most notably Ceres ie 58, Cerium, element 58 on the atomic scale.
     
    The Rooster isn’t crowing anymore now that we have hit the August 12 date.

    • Just discovered that our certain little planet in 69 made an opposition with Rahu on July 23 initiating the crash phase.   This planet in opposition to Rahu have been astro crash signatures in the past.   The current bounce since August 8 is just a bear flag continuation pattern.

      Interesting that Merriman didn’t do an update this week.   A certain cycles guru also took the week off but did provide a brief update during the weekend so I am generally less suspicious of him.

      8-15, 3months 14days or PI from 5-1.  8-15 the Orton-golden boy Tebow overhyped QB controversy.  8:15 and 5-1 are also important dates,times,numbers in 127 HOURS.

      And all of this numerology seems to playing out alongside to some of my own personal numerology.

      This late July start of the crash phase is also reminiscent of the Panic 1907 which topped out in late July(at Puetz crash signature ie lunar eclipse following a solar eclipse) and crashed into October of that year in a basically straight down decline, mega panic.
      I used to draw comparison of this bear market to the Panic of 1907 and it might be finally playing out although on a larger timeframe/scale.   The decline into the rich man’s panic in March 1907 reminscent to the first downphase of this bear market, October 2007-March 2008 followed by a recovery bounce and then the commencement of the panic phase.

  9. On many of the boards I have been checking out, seem to be bullish for the short term. Contra-iron play?

    • I’d just sit on the sidelines right now goldylocks, as this is opx manipulation week… which is tough to play successful.  Next week will be interesting though…

      • I hear you Red, I have 2 thirds of my capital left after buying faz five minutes before the close. I realize this is not a good week to short the market due to the opx week. I plan on scaling in on further pops in the market either this week or next.

  10. SPX Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_17.html

  11. Just too many bears right now, gotta rip them first, trap them on a Friday afternoon, then take the market down on a Monday morning and not allow them to play.  We know the drill.

      • Hey Red, earlier in the morning, I had a message saying I was no longer allowed to make comments here, but I don’t see that message any more. Did something happen with the site earlier?

        Anyway, we literally crawled along the bottom support of the wedgie the ENTIRE last 2 hours of trading today, so if there’s a gap down tomorrow, that’s an easy ballz-out short. In fact, if the market DOES NOT end tomorrow AT LEAST 1207, it broke the trendline. If the criminals don’t make the market pop tomorrow, then it’s HAMMER TIME!

        • Unfortunately, I don’t think we are going to get our wave 5 down until next Friday the 26th.  Bernanke will be in Jackson Hole and is supposed to speak that day.  The moon cycle turn date is over that weekend too, which is more of a reason to expect the market to hit a top around then.

          So, we could see some selling tomorrow, but I’m expecting this rally to make an ABC move up into the 26th, and then back down for wave 5.  As for the site not allowing comments to be made, it must have been a problem with disqus.

          • Another thing I keep forgetting is remember is to track the solar flares. Every time there’s an eruption, the market tanks. (Almost) without fail. Very uncanny. I don’t know if it changes moods or what, but it’s very accurate. It could be the catalyst that the criminals wait for?

            As for Jackson Hole, I agree there will be some movement, but I bet you a ham sammich we break to the downside before then, and Jackson Hole could even be when the market bounces for an intermediate rally. I guess we’ll have to see.

  12. False breakouts of SPY, ES and Silver: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/false-breakout-of-silver-es-and-spy.html

  13. Sold my faz 7 minutes before closing. Came out with a few dollars. It was not worth the time nor the money getting in that trade from yesterday.

  14. SPX Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_18.html

  15. I would say it is about time, for a ramp up job into opx friday. Just to clear out the bears. I am now buying at these levels 1138. Good luck to everyone.

    • Good luck GL… you’re going to need it in this crazy market!  I’m not sure about tomorrow, but since we are now forming a bear flag, I’d say we will likely have another leg down today… probably within the next couple of hours based on the charts.  Of course they could just turn on the PPT pump, if they exist?

  16. My harmonic forex calibrated instrument gave me my first signal in a week, its tempermental, but amazingly accurate. I salute it.

    • I see a rally starting too, but I don’t see it starting tomorrow.  A real bear squeeze should start after a capitulation move on the downside.  I really haven’t seen that today.  It still seems controlled.  I want to see panic set in, and I don’t see it yet?

  17.     My forex calibrated instrument is pretty hot, combined with your prowess, well, we could almost charge for it, but that is REPPY, so we shouldn’t.

  18. I held my longs from sp 1138. I am looking at a good bounce tomorrow. Perhaps the 1180 – 1188 level.

    Good luck to every one.

  19. S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_19.html

  20. GOLD Negative Divergence and spinning top: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-negative-divergence-and-spinning.html

    • Thanks for your input washboard. I took a small position two days ago to buy the inverse etf on gold.

    • I could see gold selling off after a one day close above 1800 to suck in more bulls.  A second close above it would confirm the uptrend is still intact… but a close below 1800 should signal a move down.

  21. Ok, today doesn’t look like another crash day at the moment.  Since I think we are in wave 5 down from the recent high 2 days ago around 1200 spx (completing wave 4 up from the 1101 low),
    this wave should be broken down in 5 smaller subwaves.

    If that’s the case, then yesterday was likely the first wave down in this 5th wave (of a larger wave 1 from the high of the year), then we will likely get that smaller subwave 2 up into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

    Then I expect that subwave 3 (down) of wave 5 down starts on Tuesday/Wednesday… which should easily break the 1101 spx low.  My downside target for this entire move down (major wave 1) from the May 2nd high is 965 spx.

  22. I’m flat going into the weekend gang, as I’m not sure about Monday.  We could rally a little before heading back down.  Overall, I see the Wednesday-Friday as the time period to be short again.

  23. SPX – Weekly close below 200 Week SMA : http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-closed-below-200-week-moving.html

  24. i have about 100 stocks, good companies with good assets, that are about 30% oversold.
    they can’t go any lower, and yet all of them did go lower.
    i have no new theories
    jackson hole has no bullets—no relief will be coming from there.
    California just reached Great DEPRESSION employment numbers this week.
    abcd, DIA from july high, and i get D=9700

    • I have to agree with you.  Everyone is hoping FED will release QE3 … ain’t going to happen. unless the market reaches 9000 level or below before FED step in.  The market should not be where it’s now.  It belongs at much much lower points.

  25. for all you trekkies out there!
     one of the downsides of working at a warp engine factory… 
    if it blows up, it takes out the whole planet:)

    • I totally understand about work… I still have a “just over broke” too, so I know how you feel.  LOL.  You are always welcome in the chatroom and here my friend… when you can find time of course.

  26. It looks like a dollar a catching a bid today.  one more reason for a selloff on monday to complete wave 5.  The question now is how low will it go.  I am thinking 1080 before we see a bounce.

    • Rex, Gas should be below $3  by now.  The suppliers are not dropping prices… they need 6 consecutive days of oil prices dropping in order to drop gasoline prices.  it’s their profit taking policy.  check this article

  27. Xray of Market Internals
    Certainly supports theory of a big market move down
    Here is the first market internal X-ray, taken with less than 1 mSievert exposure, and 5 seconds to digest.

    Clearly,
    volatility has formed a bull flag, that means volatility likely to
    continue going up.   However, I wouldn’t be the farm on this Xray alone.

    At
    the bottom is Hawaii  Trading’s custom Vix, we call it VOS (Volatility
    on Steroids).    It is a volatility ratio, which we think is harder to
    “game”, in other words, more likely to nail the truth.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/09/xray-of-market-internals.html

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