Countdown To Euro Crash…

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Wednesday Update...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT9MaJ3fn9c)

Red

It's not "if" the Euro will default, it's "when"?

Over the coming weeks the world is getting closer to "The Big ONE"... as in, the next big stock market crash!  When is the hardest question to answer of course, but we know it's coming... and probably this month.  This week old article (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2041201/George-Osbornes-eurozone-crisis-warning-6-weeks-save-euro.html#ixzz1Ysp8pT2F) gives us a time frame to work with, and now we only have 5 weeks left.

Five Banks Account For 96% Of The $250 Trillion In Outstanding US Derivative Exposure; Is Morgan Stanley Sitting On An FX Derivative Time Bomb?
(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/five-banks-account-96-250-trillion-outstanding-derivative-exposure-morgan-stanley-sitting-fx-de

However, nothing is ever as simple as it looks.  We all know that the market reacts to news in advance and sells off first (or rallies first) before the actually news is released.  Hence the old phrase "Sell the Rumor, Buy the News"... and if the news is expected to be good, then it's "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News".  So, since everyone is expecting more countries to default, causing the Euro to collapse, I'd say we have a valid reason to "Sell the Rumor"!

But, are we going to "Buy the News"?

From a technical analysis point of view the charts still remain mixed on whether or not we have completed the 5th wave down, inside major wave 1 down?  On the NYA chart you can see a 5th wave down that was clearly lower then the August 9th low.  But the SPX didn't make a lower low yet, but instead just put in a slightly higher low (almost a double bottom).  So, does that mean we still have a 5th wave down yet to come?

This question is impossible to answer, but very important in trying to figure out what's coming over the next few weeks.  If we completed that 5th wave down on September 22nd at 1114 spx, then we are now in a major wave 2 up that should take us up for several months now.  But, I really find that hard too believe as we don't appear to have bottomed in my view.  So, that has us still waiting for that 5th wave down to complete this first major wave 1 down.

If we continue to sell off for the next 3-5 weeks (waiting on some good news preventing the Euro's death), then we should complete the 5th wave down inside this larger major wave one down from the May 2nd high.  This would again imply that the market would rally for several months carving out that major wave 2 up... probably into January of next year.  But again, I find that hard too believe as well.

How can we rally though the rest of the year with the Mayan Calendar ending on October 28th?

Plus, we have the once in a hundred years date of 11-11-11 coming up, and you know that the gangsters are going to stage something bad on that ritual date.  You also have the good guys taking about a "financial shutdown and reboot" on 11-11-11... which is a "tentative" date according to Ben Fulford, but still of importance to mention.  Any way you look at it... It just doesn't make sense to rally after the Legatus Pilgrimage ends on October 23rd, and continue up for several months into next year.

So, what if all the Elliottwave chartists have got it all wrong?  What if the 5th wave down (inside the first major wave 1 down) ended on August 22nd with a double bottom on the SPX, and since then we have been carving out a major wave 2 up?  It would meet the requirements for it lasting several months like major wave 1 down did, and allow for major wave 3 down to start this coming Legatus turn date.  Remember, wave 5's can be "truncated" waves... ending short with a double bottom or double top.  This theory would change the entire picture and support my thoughts of a "HUGE" crash starting on October 24th!

While most people will be looking for a 5th wave down to complete this first major wave 1 down, they could actually be seeing part of major wave 3 down starting...

If this theory is right, then we completed major wave 1 down on August 22nd with a truncated 5th wave ending at 1121 spx.  Then we started the "A" wave up in major wave 2 that ended on August 30th at 1230, followed by "B" down to 1136 on September 12th, and finally "C" up to 1220 ending the entire "ABC" move up that completes major wave 2 up.  That then implies that we have started major wave 3 down from that 1220 high and appear to be in the first sub wave of that major wave 3 down.

Counting this is of course subjective, as all elliottwave counts are.  They are easy to figure out after the move is over, but predicting them in advance is really just a guessing game.  I favor this count because of all the evidence I've presented about all the important dates coming up the next few months.  With all those ritual dates, (and the monthly chart just now dropping below the zero line on the MACD's), I just can't wrap my head around this coming move down completing a final 5th wave down inside the first major wave 1 down, and then allowing a multi-month rally to start late this month and into early next year.

While all this negative news about more defaults in Euro land seems like it could be a "sell the rumor" event, I just don't see the market "buying the news" when the actual defaults are announced and the Euro really collapses!  I can't forget how many times Lindsey Williams stated that we have less then 2 weeks to get out of all paper when the Euro collapses... which doesn't sound like a "Sell the Rumor, Buy the News" event too me!

I think we are looking at a "Sell the Rumor, Crash the News" type event!

If I'm right on my subjective elliottwave count, then we could end this first minor wave 1 down this week (inside major wave 3 down), rally back up for a couple of weeks, to put in a lower high for minor wave 2... which should end by option expiration on Friday, October 21st (and that weekend of course ends the Legatus Pilgrimage on Sunday the 23rd), and finally start...

"Minor Wave 3 Down, inside Major Wave 3 Down, inside Primary Wave 3 Down"!

Holy Smoke's Batman, I think you've got something there!  This is all just my gut feelings, along with the ritual dates, crazy news of a financial reboot, timing of Elenin, end of the Mayan calendar, Legatus Pilgrimage date, and of course the monthly chart looking like it's ready to puke!  I'm sure there are other reasons I've missed, but I think you get my point... "I can't see a rally starting in late October into early next year for major wave 2 up"!

If my theory is correct, then there will be a lot of bulls that get smoked on buying this next leg down that takes out the 1101 spx low.  They will all think it's the final 5th wave down, ending the first major wave 1 down, and will be looking for that multi-month rally up for major wave 2.... only to discover later that it was likely just minor wave 2 up inside major wave 3 down!  Uh oh... that means a lot of bulls are going to panic when minor wave 3 down, inside major wave 3 down, inside primary wave 3 down starts!  (And if I'm right, that will be the week of the Legatus Pilgrimage).

The last several months I've been trying to figure out where the market will be when the Legatus meeting is over, and it's now looking like it could be at the starting point of at least a combination of 3 big "Wave 3's"!  Now I don't know what the actually price level will be at on this coming opx, but it's doesn't look like that FP of 127.07 SPY is going to be hit anytime soon, and probably not even this year! (Of course if my theory of this alternate EW count is wrong, and we rally up for the next 3 weeks and hit that 127.07 print by opx, then I'll be an even happier Bear and short this pig with all my fingers and toes!).

Anyway it looks, I still see the next largest move down to start that week of October 23rd...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emFpu8OC6qo)

I have to say that I just seen that possible count in the charts today while writing this post, and I don't know if that meets EW guidelines and rules or not... but then again, when do the gangsters every play by the rules?  I only know that they will do everything in there power to trick the most amount of bulls and bears before the next plunge starts.

When we look at astrology and moon cycles, we see that the next Full Moon is October 12th, followed by a New Moon on October 26th.  Usually, the Full Moon produces bottoms on that date (+/- 2-3 days) and the New Moon produces tops it's date.  Since the 12th is on a Wednesday, we could expect the bottom to be as early as that Monday the 10th, or as late as that Friday the 14th, (if you add 2 days before and after to expand the window to match the plus or minus 2-3 days criteria).

My best guess would be that it would end 2 days prior on Monday the 10th, which would allow for a 2 week rally into option expiration on Friday the 21st to squeeze out the bears and get plenty of new bulls onboard expecting this rally to be the first sub-wave inside major wave 2 up.  They will expect this to last all of the rest of the year, with only minor pullbacks to create "B" waves down inside the expected "ABC" up (or possibly a 5 wave push up, with waves 2 and 4 down inside that major wave 2 up).

Thinking outside the "retail sheep's mind" here, and thinking like a wolf... I'd rally the market up hard into that Legatus Pilgrimage date, and option expiration Friday, leaving almost NO dips for the trapped bears to get out, or the retail bulls to get long at.  Then starting on Monday the 24th, I'd turn it back down for what the retail bulls would think would be the first buying opportunity before another larger wave up into the holiday season of November and December.  Most everyone will be expecting a Santa rally, and believe the worst is behind us.

After all, we should have put in a lower low then the 1101 spx low, completing that final 5th wave down that everyone was looking for... right?  Oh, but there lies the trap that few will see... "it wasn't the final 5th wave down they saw, but the first minor wave 1 down inside major wave 3 down".  While they will be expecting some type of "B" wave down (or wave 2 down) to be happening that week of October 23rd, instead they will be in minor wave 3 down, inside major wave 3 down, inside primary wave 3 down... taking everyone by surprise!

Talk about a Panic, just wait until those "Wave 3's" start!

Moving on to the short term, I see a new FP of 116.05 SPY afterhours Friday.  This is probably the upside target for Monday or Tuesday of next week.  While I do expect the market to gap down on Monday and put in a lower low then Friday, I also think it will turn back up shortly afterwards and rally up to work off the oversold conditions on the short term charts and make them get overbought.  Possibly that new FP is the upside target before they get overbought and turn back down?

As for the 127.07 print, I don't see that happening if we are in the EW count I'm speculating about, as that would throw that count out the window if that print is hit by opx (not that I care, as I'd still short it).  Back to Monday though, I do expect a positive close after an early morning push down.  As for Tuesday through Friday, I'm unsure right now?  We'll have to cross that road when we get there.  I'll just say that I expect the selling to end possibly by the end of this week or early next week, being close to the Full Moon date of the 12th.  We should put in a lower low then the 1101 spx low in order to fool the bears and bulls into thinking that we have put in that final 5th wave down and should now start major wave 2 up.

Ok, assuming we have started major wave 3 down from the 1220 high on August 20th, then first micro wave 1 down completed at 1114, and then micro wave 2 up to 1195, which puts us in the first smaller sub-wave of micro wave 3 down right now.  If we go back up to hit the FP of 116.05 spy (about 1160 spx) by the close Monday or Tuesday, then we would have completed the 2nd smaller sub-wave up of micro wave 3 down (This is all inside minor wave 1 down)

This would leave Tuesday/Wednesday to start smaller sub-wave 3 down, inside micro wave 3 down, inside minor wave 1 down, inside major wave 3 down, inside primary wave 3 down.  Getting confused yet?  I know I am... LOL!  Alright, if that actually plays out like that, then we should bounce back up Thursday/Friday for micro wave 4, and then roll back down Friday/Monday (the 12th) to finish micro wave 5 inside minor wave 1 down.

This would allow minor wave 2 up, inside major wave 3 down to rally into option expiration on Friday the 21st, and possibly Monday the 24th.  When done, it should align up with the start of minor wave 3 down, inside major wave 3 down, inside primary wave 3 down.  This count, if correct?, should fool all, the EW chartists out there, and the technical analysis people too!  It would certainly fool me, and has been fooling me until today when I discovered this alternate EW count.

Predicting the low for this move down before the 2 week run up into opx is hard too do... but a possible low is one just below the 1077 ES afterhours print we got from several weeks back.  Often times, the market will retest these afterhours and premarket prints at a later date.  This would make the SPX put in a lower low then the 1101 low on August 9th, and fulfill everyone's expectations that the final 5th wave down inside major wave 1 down is now complete.

Ok, I think I've about covered everything I can think of for my predictions over the coming days and weeks, so I'll close for now and simply wish everyone good luck as usual.

Red

749 COMMENTS

  1. Possibly a fake out to the upside tomorrow morning , than down into the close. Should be very interesting day.

  2. They should gap it below previous support at 1101, the reverse modus operandi for the previous two years.

    My head is spinning from all of the numerology flashed into today’s NFL games.  It must be getting close.  Everywhere I turned there were 87s 29s 29 7s 58s 777s 21 718s 88s 24s.    The topper was during the Patriot- Raiders game when Raiders K#11 nailed a field goal with 9:22 left on the scoreboard.   His holder #9 so a nice little 9-11 combo but one should check out what the score was on the scoreboard at the time of the field goal.    Then later players #85 and#18 were shown standing behind the Belicheat when Brady and the backup QB Hoyer approached and consulted with him.   Brady#12 but Hoyer’s number couldn’t be seen so I am thinking that they should pan out until Hoyer’s number could be seen.   The broadcast promptly complied and pulled the camera back to reveal Hoyer’s #8 or 8-12, a key date for the insiders as well as #29 in reverse.   A Rooster Cogburn date as well.  So so much more.

  3. I am going to be traveling today, so I won’t be around.  Tant pis.  Honestly I just wish I had stayed short from the very top and could watch all this develop with a smile.  Arthur my assistant isn’t giving his opinion yet.

        Geccko23, maybe you should just go all in short, might make you feel a little better.  You guys know that the majority of us will probably be looking on the outside when the fall happens. Just the way the game plays.

  4. And by the way, there is massive leverage in silver and while my partner has not been consulted yet, Sir Arthur, I see a pretty obvious a b c in it and think a big move can be coming. A very small amount of money can turn into seven zeros with this baby.  As long as you don’t get whipped. LOL. 

       But seriously, a few thousand could lead to a retirement to a small country with a good move.

    • In what direction are you expecting it to go to?  I see the weekly and monthly charts still pointing down, while the daily is oversold and looks to be pointing up.  The 60 minute chart is about near the zero level from being severely oversold and could turn back down, but looks more like it wants to go up.

      There is also a triangle pattern that formed and with the current opening price of silver today, it has now broken out of that triangle to the upside.  The current situation with silver looks bullish too me right now, as the 27.50 low to the 32.00 high appears to be an “A” wave up, with “B” down to the 29.00 level and now we could be starting “C” up?

  5. Good morning gang…

    There is a 112.01 FP on the SPY at  8:00 am this morning, and the 116.05 print from Friday. Those are your upside and downside targets I believe.

  6. The ES worked off a lot of the oversold conditions on the 60 minute and 2 hour charts.  The SPX is also ready to go back up. So, if I was a guessing man, I’d say we go down to the 112.01 print first and then up to the 116.05 print by tomorrow or Wednesday at the latest.  We also have an overnight low of 1111.25 on the ES, which is probably about the same level as the 112.01 SPY print.

  7. We hit 112.08 spy… close enough to the 112.01 FP I believe.  The low for the day could be in? Remember, the FP’s don’t have to be hit to the penny. We had a 112.08 low so far. I think that’s close enough.  Now we could be on our way up to the 116.05 FP from Friday?

  8. I do not know how high the sp will get to, but I do not like the feel of the market at the end of the day.

    • What are your thoughts about my alternate EW count?  It’s not a perfect fit, but the other counts that every other blogger has, are just to obvious too me.  I just don’t think we will rally in late October and November.

      • I am more in line with your count. I still see possibly new lower lows before heading up into the Oct 23 time period

        • As long as we stop around that 1077 ES level from several weeks back then we should be able to rally into that Oct 23rd period.  If we crash down to sub-1,000 then that is probably off the table.

  9. I think we are going to do an “ABC” move up today, with the start of A up at the current low of 1121 spx, and the predicted end around the resistance area of 1140-1142 spx.  Then a B wave down to an “unknown” level, followed by a C wave up to about 1160 spx (about where the 116.05 spy is)

  10. Thanks Red for your insight and hard work on this site.  I balance your site with several others that I read and always stop by RDL for the Sunday News.

  11. I have to say the 3 wave idea seems to me the most likely scenario. This would be a far more significant and elegant way to demonstrate their control and align themselves with the most power.  Well done Red. 

  12. I have to say that Red presents a very compelling view, as always, but my investing for the next few months is based on Minor Wave 5 and Intermediate Wave (1) bottoming out in the next week or so, followed by a long a-b-c up to Intermediate Wave (2) – probably into the 1250 range.

    How long (2) will take I don’t know – it could finish this year or go into January. Then I can’t wait for the real fun to begin!

    Either way, I have had a great ride with the VXX and will probably exit out very soon.

    • I hope not Jed, as I had bull markets.  I really don’t want to wait 2-3 months for wave 2 up to finish before going short heavily again.  We need it to crash this October and November to fool everyone.  Tell Santa to take a vacation this year as we don’t need his rally this time.  LOL

  13.     MAY BE CAPITULATION 2DAY. WILL CASH IN SOME SHORTS IN THE MORN. THEN BUY SOME LONG PROLLY THIS WEEK. NEVER TOO EARLY TO TAKE A BIG PROFIT

    • We should be getting close to a short term bottom Chic.  Today could be that day?  Looking at the charts right now I do see the possibility that we could start to turn back up as early as tomorrow.

      We hit (and pierced) the 1077 ES level that was hit several weeks back in the afterhours session.  This, and the charts, indicate that we are getting close to bottom. Maybe 1050?  Hard to pick the bottom exactly, but we are close…

  14. I bought a stock last friday tha actually went up over 100% yesterday, amazing considering the day.  NPWZ, its just a penny stock but it actually might go up 2,000% IF Red’s scenario isn’t correct.

        Gotta say I was tempted to go long yesterday and Arthur stopped me cold in my tracks and said lower.   I will consult him today to see if this is Reds scenario or just the end of wave one. 

        Red’s scenario is what I was thinking as well, so as to leave ALL behind, both bull and bear, but as we know, I don’t do anything without Arthur. lol.

        And Red, Arthur is going to be visiting you real soon.

  15. Good Morning gang…

    Well, we finally hit the 1077 ES afterhours low from weeks back.  Whether this is the temporary low or not is unknown, but in order for my alternate EW count to play out we need to bottom some time this week.  This would allow a 2 week rally into the Legatus meeting.  Of course if we go below 965 spx this week, then the alternate EW count is totally wrong and we will likely rally for several months then.

  16. Google Testing weekly support line: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/10/google-testing-weekly-support-line.html

  17. Looks like we are going up for wave 4 now, and could last for 1-2 days.  I spotted a 110.00 spy FP at 8:00 am this morning.  If this is an ABC move up for this wave 4, then that level could be the A wave high?  We should then go down for B wave today, and back up for C wave tomorrow.  Then that 116.05 FP could be the high for the C wave, ending the 4th wave up.

    • I wish had a crystal ball to answer that one, but I don’t.  I’ll only say that it’s a “New FP” that was emailed to me yesterday.  The time frame is unknown, but I’m sure we’ll be heading that way over coming rest of the month and next month.

    • I’m specifically talking about Goldman, JP Morgan, Citi, BOA, and the thugs that own them… like Soro’s, Buffet, Rockefeller, Bush, Cheney, Kissinger, Clinton, etc…

  18. The ETF question I can answer myself now,its FXP.  The one and only.  Fairly liquid.  Trades about a million a day.  Certainly enough.

       How do I get the index symbol for hong kong.

    • In that FP you’ll see it shows $HSI up in the left hand corner, but I can’t get that to pull up in Ameritrade, so I don’t know how to chart it… unless I use the stockcharts.com site that was used to capture the FP with.

        • The screen shot doesn’t show anything more then that the print was taken on October the 3rd.  There isn’t any time frame that I can figure out?  Only the insiders would know the date that it would be hit… and unfortunately, I’m not one them.

          One the other hand, I still think we will soon start a rally into the October 23rd time frame, then top out, and proceed to crash the following week.  Maybe that print will be hit on December 7th when the Illuminati.org countdown ends and the date of my Wilshire FP?

  19. By the way Red.  You may want to test trial a fellow that I used when he was free.  Regrettably, I abandoned him when he suddenly went commerical.  But he taught me one thing in particular that was really, really good.  The one two, one two in Elliott Wave. 

       In other words this wave three that daneric and everyone else is anticipating could JUST be a second ONE WAVE, that would account for hong kong ONLY dropping 15%.   Heh, ONLY.  His site is http://www.the-elliott-wave-practioner.com 

       He is pretty good, but he was too early on the top, way too early.  So he definitely has a bearish side to him.

  20. Red, we are waiting for parts right now. So your Arthur is dependent on that.  Additionally, Arthur as usual, coupled with your FP, made me a real score today.  Thanks to you and thanks to arthur.  What a combo.

       I cannot wait for two guys to have access to Arthur, gets a little lonely.

  21. I see a one two, one two developing here.  Which explains WHY that FP on hong kong wasn’t as massive as you expect from a three.  But it means that THREE would be apocalyptic.

        Arthur is in FULL agreement with this by the way.  As defer to him almost always.  Sure wish I had listened to him at the top in silver and sold my physical. 

  22. By the way, Red, I think this is the best site on the planet now.  Free OR commercial. Sorry to all your competitors, but you are the best of the best imo.

  23. It looks like we completed a smaller “A” wave up to 110.00, then a “B” wave down to 108, and we are waiting for the “C” wave up tomorrow.  We could hit the 113.13 spy afterhours print from yesterday for the end of that C wave.  After that I’m not sure?  We could complete the 4th wave at that point, and go back down into a 5th wave… or not?  The next upside target is 116.05 spy.

    • If this is accurate, then a gap up tomorrow is possible (and likely).  We need to gap over the downward sloping trendline of resistance to make it up to 113.13 if that is the target for this move up.  A possibility is a gap up in the morning around that 113.13 level, and then an early morning sell off for a larger “B” wave down with “C” up to follow on Thursday.  That would be around the 116.05 spy level.

      If not, then the move down from the 113.13 level would be the start of the 5th wave down, with only a smaller “ABC” move up from 107.50-110.00 (A), then 110.00-108.00 (B), and 108.00-113.13 (C)… all completing wave 4 up.  I’m not sure which will happen, but I’m leaning toward the first ABC up to 113.13 spy as a little larger wave A up, then a B down, followed by a C up to 116.05 to complete this 4th wave up.

      At that point, I’ll re-access to see if we are going to continue rallying into the October 23rd-26th time frame, or if we have one more 5th wave down?  I could be counting the waves wrong, and there might not be a 5th wave down?  I’m not an Elliottwave guru you know… LOL

      • LOL… someone stated in the chatroom about some positive Greek Debt News.  I haven’t heard it yet, but it’s funny how they release news when the charts were pointing up anyway.

        As for the 113.13 spy gap up tomorrow, I’d say that’s a given now that we have closed at 112+ on the SPY.  This means a continued move to the upper print of 116.05 is also likely.  My eta on that would be Thursday.

  24. That was breath taking, to watch. As I said earlier Red, I believe you will be correct in your longer term vision on the markets into the 23rd week.

  25. Hey All,

    Question on buying physical PM”s (I’m personally thinking Silver).  I’ve finally convinced my wife that it’s in our best interest….What do you recommend buying?  I’m not necessarily worried about paying a couple percent more like at sites like APMEX, I’m just concerned on what to buy???

    For instance, focusing on silver, you can buy bars, silver eagles, maple leafs, industrial silver, Silver PROOFS (is it worth 3x to have “proof”; if you have a non-proof eagle, will it be accepted?)?  http://www.apmex.com/Category/503/Silver.aspx

    If anyone has any thought on what silver product to buy – and why – I would appreciate it. 

    • I personally only buy silver eagles,maple leafs ect. I would never buy silver bars myself due to possible manipulation of the bars. ( lead, zinc filled) ect.

    • When
      buying silver and gold the 2 factors I keep in mind are quality and
      recognizably.  Because when you sell all of a sudden those two factors
      are the number one factor that the buyer cares about.  I stay away from
      generic rounds and “junk silver” (low quality US coins).  My
      recommendation is to check Ampex, Provident Metals, Ebay and also your local coin shops.  My favorites are:
      Canadian Maple Leaf – Buy the new Cougars (Face value $5)
      Eagles – ($1 face)
      Philharmonics ($1.5 Euro)
      US Mint Silver coins see http://www.usmint.gov
      Almost Uncirculated US Half Dollars pre 1964 (I like 1964 Kennedy)
      1,2,5 Swiss Francs pre 1968, they have high face value and 80% silver content
      Canadian Silver Dollars
      I personally think that Peace Dollars and Morgans are a gamble, unless you can buy them for spot.

      Be sure to look at the “Buy” and “Sell Back” price to get an idea of the
      spread if you need to liquidate immediately.  Also factor in taxes,
      driving or shipping costs, finally think about storage.  Remember when
      buying think “Numismatics are for fun or hobby” and silver/gold for long
      term investment.

      If you are buying because you think the economy is going to collapse,
      then IMHO it won’t do much good.  In a military take over everything you
      own becomes the property of the government, you are better being well
      connected and have sharp wits, then a trunk full of treasure to ste

       

  26. Silver is best, who wants to buy a bar of soap with a gold bar.  Additionally, everyone here should buy downloadable energy that can be used when the lights go out for weeks.  Best way to shut everyone up and down is to turn the lights off.

  27. Quite frankly, if it is either 113 or 116, my suggestion would be to seriously consider scaling in,so that you do NOT miss the fireworks.  I am going to use Arthur, but since I seem to ignore him on some of the best trades,I am going to be robotic on this one.

  28.   At 1173 I received the strongest BUYING response from Arthur to date, and you know what I did, engaged in a chat with my wife and then went for a quick nap.  Totally forgot to slap on a trade.  Arthur might be better serving Red I think.

  29. Solved some things that had been a mystery to me and pretty much figured the crash date.   A primary Cramer Code number and confirmed by the 9-11 Raiders-Patriots ritual on Sunday.    Only question is when and where the bounce will come from before the crash.   The market is acting like it wants to crash right here.   Today just a replay of October 13,1987 and October 22,1929, a penetration of the previous low that produced a large one day snapback rally.

  30. Forgot to mention…I’m still open to the “possibility” of one more bear trap break of the bottom down to the estimated lows of 1010-1040. Tread carefully…

  31. Saw Moneyball recently, Aaron Sorkin’s follow up to Social Network.  The storyline for Moneyball seems pretty  straightforward without any hidden meanings in the screenplay but they do blast the viewer with trillions of numbers.   It would take about 10 viewings to be able to piece anything together.
    Saw this preview before the Moneyball screening:   http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/sony_pictures/thegirlwiththedragontatoo/      The Illuminati film of the year to be released on 12-21-11.  Or as they aptly describe it in the teaser trailer:  the Feel Bad Movie of the Year.   David Fincher’s follow up to Social Network.   Notice the clock set at 3:21 (3-777?).  Interesting, because the game-log for the 9-11 Raiders game kick ritual showed it taking place with 3:21 left although on the scoreboard the number 9:22 was showing.  (Notice this trailer was posted on 9-22)  I’d like to see a replay of that kick but that would probably impossible to track down.   I believe Fincher used this time in Social Network during the July 3/4 Henley regatta sequence.   (the time seen on the clock at the race finish)

    • Originally, talk about a diabolical incident on an island in the trailer came across as a creepy reference to the recent Norwegian massace.  Of course, the film was shot before then and the orignal book, an international best seller that got the full backing in publicity by the insiders a la the Divinci Code, came out years ago.  I haven’t read the book.

      Standard Fincher techniques including  the subliminal images and Trent Reznor’s harrowing electronic score intermixed in all of the subliminal touches.

  32. Good Morning gang….

    Today’s update:

    I’m expecting a move down to 111.38 SPY at some point this morning.  That should be the low for today (depending on how the charts line up of course), followed by a move back up the rest of the day.  The possible high is that FP of 116.05 by Thursday, but there is now guarantee that the print was real.

    However, it roughly equals 1160 spx, and a resistance level from a downward sloping trendline that should intersect around that level today and early tomorrow… therefore I think the print is likely real and that we will hit that target.  After that we could sell off, or continue through it?  I won’t know until I see what the charts look like at that point.

    But for today, you’ll buying level looks to be around 111.38 spy…

    • The 111.38 level is another FP guys, and the last 2 this week have been hit on the day they were given.  If we rally all morning, then the print will likely be hit in the afternoon, close to the end of the day.  But, I suspect it will be hit before noon today and then the charts will realign for another move higher into the close, instead of down.

  33.    Just a suggestion of strategy for the upcoming great crash, that usually ends up fooling everyone, bear and bull alike.  If you buy FAZ for example or TZA, try and win, as usual, but instead of taking cash profit, leave the profit in stock.

       I have been doing this for the past two weeks and have a funny amount of it now.  Like 213 shares or something like that.  But I flip 1-2,000 of it at a time. 

       Its a strategy that a friend of mine who was brilliant showed me.  And he was still, the best I have ever seen.  But he lived and breathed it.  He would pick out a stock and declare that he was going to own 100,000 shares of it for free.  So we he would trade it back and forth, long and short and never take a profit in cash.  Till he owned his position.  He was a math teacher.

       Bottom line, if you start winning on a bear etf and end up owning some permanently, wouldn’t that ensure that you would CATCH the big one?  Course it would. 

      •     He was the guy who taught myself and this guy, http://people.forbes.com/profile/frank-e-holmes/81808  how to trade.  The other guy sucked up all his knowledge and is one of the most powerful guys in America, while giving NO CREDIT at all to our teacher.  Me, I became a tennis bum.  Both of us ultimately disappointing our teacher, but at least I gave him tons of credit.

          •     Lets do it tonight, I can teach you in fifteen minutes.  Your number again.  Its so simple its stupid, just don’t allow your lower self to get in YOUR way.

    • I like this thought process. While more easily said than done, my thought is catching the big one should be the main priority.  While I’ve had a few transactions to gain a few FAZ shares and left them in there, I’ve basically been “long” FAZ for a while now and not jumping in and out too much.  I know there is risk that the bulls gain traction or even the shares themselves degrading due to the nature of inverse levered EFT’s, but to me that is minuscule compared to the opportunity.   I’m just scared that if I make the wrong move, I could miss the big one! 

      • How do you deal with the volatility of these ETFs?  I have tried and gotten shaken out.  For example I could see a case for FAZ at $75 a share and right now it is trading at 67. My guess is that it has to be a really short term trade a day or a few days then out, is that correct?

        • Simon,

          For me, I literally ignore the volatility on FAZ and just keep faith that TPTB will screw this economy up!  Seriously though, I made a conscience decision take off stops and almost take a buy and hold strategy…for now.  If I see a good opportunity, I will sell, but then I’m back in shortly.  If gold goes below $1000, that strategy will change… I have some FAZ positions that were down 50% at one point and now are even or slightly up (mostly in IRA’s where my time line is longer).  With my play money in my brokerage account, have other FAZ positions that were fairly well timed that are up 75%. 

          I imagine each person is different, but at the end of the day I can ignore the volatility because I truly believe where this is headed.  If it happens, you can conservatively add a zero to your $75 case for FAZ…and maybe even add a one to the front also.   I’m not good with options, so I for now, I’ll keep the ant-acids around and be patient even with a 100+ pt SPX swing.  That way I’m pointed in the right direction when this thing does tank!

  34. We had a high this morning between 6am and 7am of 1124.75 on the ES… which is an indication to me that they plan on going higher at some point.  It doesn’t mean today of course, but considering how close that level is I’d say within a few days it should be hit.

  35.     Wow Red, you interpret those prints as well or better than anyone.   Almost bang on.  congrats, I was out for a meeting missed it, as per usual.  Lol.

    I’m expecting a move down to 111.38 SPY at some point this morning.  Quote unquote.

      • Since the short term charts (5 and 15 minute) are quite overbought now it’s still possible that the 111.38 spy print still could be hit.  I think it’s unlikely now, but still possible.  This will simply be a buying opportunity “if” it does go down there today.  Personally, I think we were close enough this morning with a low of 111.58 spy.

        However, as I said, the short term charts are very overbought.  This means that that print could be the low today going into the close.  That would leave tomorrow open for a rally toward that 116.05 spy print.  After that, I expect we’ll rollover again and probably take out the current 1074 spx low for a final 5th wave down.

    • You are looking like a genius Red. I bought at the fp low , sold out at the fp high.. I do not like the feel of the market for the end of the day

  36. Ok,

    Since we have now hit 113.17 (and the early morning high between 6am and 7am was 113.13 spy) we could have topped for the day?  If so, then we should go back down to the 111.38 spy FP from this morning.  The actually low of 111.58 spy this morning was close (and again, could be close enough?), but considering the overbought conditions on the short term charts, we could still go back down today and hit that print exactly.

    There is also the wave count we have right now.  It looks like we have completed a smaller “ABC” move up from the 1074 spx low to the current 1131 high.  “If” this entire move up was instead a “5 wave” pattern, then we have just completed the first 3 waves with a 4th wave down to follow.  Maybe that will be the move down to the 111.38 spy level for the 4th wave, followed by the 5th wave up tomorrow to hit the 116.05 spy level?

  37. Arthur is ready for an interpretation.  I have to run in a few minutes.  What do we want to know?  Where is goldy btw?

  38. Why?  Its a great name Iagree. Makes me think of the most amazing native indian of all time, and he got NO publicity to speak of.  Maskepetoon.  The Jesus of native indians, who originally was a blood thirsty killer of hundreds.  Google him.  Amazing story.

  39. From the looks of the short term charts, we’ll probably go back down to get a closer print on that 113.38 spy FP… that would be my guess for today.  Then up tomorrow for a 5th wave to 116.05 spy?
     

  40. I’m not sure if the low is in today or not as we only hit 111.58 spy, and the FP at 8:00 am this morning was for 111.38 spy… so, is that “close enough?” I don’t know? But if we go back down again today into the close I expect that target to be hit. Then back up tomorrow for a 5th wave to complete this rally. My target is the falling trendline around 1160 spx, which also matches a “possible” FP on the SPY of 116.05 from earlier this week.

  41. Just got back in.  I like leaving ONCE I put on a position so my LOWER self, the one irradiated with ELF mental suggestion to LOSE, LOSE, LOSE doesn’t interfere with arthur.  Up, again, but of course my lower self is just going to for the ride. 

       And PW is constantly doing what Arthur does.  Amazing.  Finely tuned to be sure. Congrats

  42.    May I express again, how wonderul it is to be on a forum where everyone just says their piece and no one comes in and trolls with harmful negative prejudiced energy?  Best forum on the internet, by far.

    • Glad to help.  We have a “possible” opening low tomorrow of 113.21 spy, and then a move back up toward my finally target of 116.05 spy.  Don’t know for sure on that one, but we’ll know more tomorrow morning.  I think Friday is going to be ugly!

        • Well, I’m not sure if there is going to be a dip down tomorrow or not, but “if” there is, it would only be to lure in a few more bears for the final squeeze higher to 116.05 spy.  After that, I think we’ll resume the selling back down in the 5th wave (from the 1220 spx top on 09-20) on Friday’s bad NFP numbers.

          Then that should continue into Monday and Tuesday of next week, with Tuesday being the really ugly “possible capitulation day” because it’s an “Eleven Day”.  The 12th is a Full Moon day and bottoms usually happen around that period.  Then we rally into the 23rd-26th period as the 26th is a New Moon (which usually forms tops), and the 23rd is the end of the Legatus meeting… which is of course a very important turn date.

          Plus we have the Mayan calendar ending on Friday the 28th, 2011… so that entire week should be very interesting to say the least!

  43. red, you have a page to display all the FP screenshots, but I can not find the link.  Can you let me know how to navigate to that page?  I remembered that I could go to that page from the tool bar before, but can not do it now.

    • All of the old FP’s (bigger one’s) are on the wibiya toolbar below, under the “photos” button.  Basically, that is my Flickr account.  If you want to go directly to it you can just type in: http://www.flickr.com/reddragonleo

      However, I don’t upload every FP I get there as that’s a lot of work.  It’s mainly all the larger FP’s, but not the day to day “intraday” FP’s that I get.

      • Thanks, red.  The link works.  I still can not find the photo button on the wibiya toolbar. I use Chrome as brower.  It was there before and that is how I got to those FPs before.  I guess it is lost during the upgrade?  Anyway, I will use the link from now on, thanks again.

  44. A legend has passed…in other news, in 100% cash right now, want to see what will happen as a result of tomorrow’s Fed SALE of treasuries. $8-9 billion. The next purchase is the day after, of $1.5-2 billion. It will be interesting to see if the market sucks wind from the loss of liquidity……

  45.    Hmmm. Dunno about that yet.  Can you google it?  And you went short?  Wow, thought you were temporarily bullish. 

       I wish there were some way I could help you Red with your FP’s.  Honestly, that feature alone is worth a big price of admission around here.  I have found them to be enormously helpful lately.

  46. My three week thesis based on analysis of news, trends and technical indicators:
    Oct. 11-14 – Cash gets pumped into the market raising volume and value
                    – We forget Europe
    Oct. 17-21 – Positive Sentiment, IBD announces a “Follow through day”
    http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Definitions/IBD_FollowThroughDay.html
    http://www.investors.com/MediaCenter/Default.aspx?mediaId=522661
                    – Positive earnings raise expectations the ‘bah-bah’s’ line up to participate
    Oct. 24 -11 – Light volume on high trending day
    ————- After that, Red will see what predictions you have come true

    I really can’t say with any certainty, but looking at what happened in 2008 I see the same pattern.  If you look at the low of 2008 it really only lasted a week or so, I hope there are a few good football games to distract everyone during that time.  Regards, SP

  47. This was something I just read.  It pretty helpful.  

    There was a platform computer game in the late 1980s to promote
    Domino’s Pizza called “Avoid the Noid”.  The ad featured a “Noid” that
    destroyed pizzas and must be avoided.  Active traders have our own
    version of the “noid” in the form of HFT (high frequency trading)
    robots.  Except this noid doesn’t destroy pizzas, it destroys traders.

    By creating what I like to refer to as “noise”, these bots wreak
    havoc on intraday charts, setups, and technical indicators.  They prey
    on conventional wisdom ignoring moving averages, support/resistance, and
    breakouts.  With Jack Bauer like precision, they seem to know the exact
    level of pain to inflict to get traders to cough up their shares.  And
    if greed is your demon, get ready for the mother of all vicious snap
    backs. 

    For a trader to be successful in today’s marketplace I believe it is
    crucial to “avoid the noise”.  Three adjustments that have helped me
    avoid the noise and profit in this low-volume, HFT manipulated market
    are:

    1.  Smaller size and scaling in — At TodayTrader we often quote “The
    only two things you can control are your share size and your attitude”. 
    Entering a trade in small lots (one third to one fifth at a time) will
    help you stay in a position as it takes the scenic route from point A to
    point B.

    2.  Longer time-frame charts — Bots feast at the micro level.  They
    have the advantage, and the 1 minute and 5 minute chart is their
    playground.  I have been focusing and trading more off the 10 minute and
    even the daily charts.  I still use the 5 minute chart but will marry
    it up with longer time frames to keep me in a good trade.

    3.  Go with your gut – Bots are designed to take your money and will
    break down the technicals to do so.  I know this is the nature of
    today’s market so when I feel that I am right in a position I will sit
    thru more pain than I would in the past.  Don’t get me wrong.  It is
    important to have a defined stop; I am just a little more liberal when
    it comes to setting them.

    Let me give you a good example where all three of these helpful tips
    allowed me to stay in a trade and ring up a nice profit. Look at the
    chart above.  On 10/8/2010 I noticed the casinos got out of the blocks
    early and were showing some bullish price action (MGM LVS etc).  About
    25 minutes after the open WYNN had a pullback and I entered a one third
    position (scaling in with small size) at 90.10.  It pulled back further
    and I entered another third at 89.56 on the 10 moving average.  I really
    liked the daily chart and that combined with the strength in the sector
    gave me conviction (going with my gut). 

    After checking out the 10 minute chart, I told our clients I would
    like to see it hold 89.50 but I was willing to give it to 89.40 because I
    liked the risk reward potential in this one.  The stock wicked below
    89.50 quickly to a low of 89.46 and then bounced, eventually going to
    highs and exploding.  Unfortunately, I was working other trades and was
    unable to buy another third.  I sold my last shares 92.97.
     

    There was a platform computer game in the late 1980s to promote
    Domino’s Pizza called “Avoid the Noid”.  The ad featured a “Noid” that
    destroyed pizzas and must be avoided.  Active traders have our own
    version of the “noid” in the form of HFT (high frequency trading)
    robots.  Except this noid doesn’t destroy pizzas, it destroys traders.

    By creating what I like to refer to as “noise”, these bots wreak
    havoc on intraday charts, setups, and technical indicators.  They prey
    on conventional wisdom ignoring moving averages, support/resistance, and
    breakouts.  With Jack Bauer like precision, they seem to know the exact
    level of pain to inflict to get traders to cough up their shares.  And
    if greed is your demon, get ready for the mother of all vicious snap
    backs. 

    For a trader to be successful in today’s marketplace I believe it is
    crucial to “avoid the noise”.  Three adjustments that have helped me
    avoid the noise and profit in this low-volume, HFT manipulated market
    are:

    1.  Smaller size and scaling in — At TodayTrader we often quote “The
    only two things you can control are your share size and your attitude”. 
    Entering a trade in small lots (one third to one fifth at a time) will
    help you stay in a position as it takes the scenic route from point A to
    point B.

    2.  Longer time-frame charts — Bots feast at the micro level.  They
    have the advantage, and the 1 minute and 5 minute chart is their
    playground.  I have been focusing and trading more off the 10 minute and
    even the daily charts.  I still use the 5 minute chart but will marry
    it up with longer time frames to keep me in a good trade.

    3.  Go with your gut – Bots are designed to take your money and will
    break down the technicals to do so.  I know this is the nature of
    today’s market so when I feel that I am right in a position I will sit
    thru more pain than I would in the past.  Don’t get me wrong.  It is
    important to have a defined stop; I am just a little more liberal when
    it comes to setting them.

    Let me give you a good example where all three of these helpful tips
    allowed me to stay in a trade and ring up a nice profit. Look at the
    chart above.  On 10/8/2010 I noticed the casinos got out of the blocks
    early and were showing some bullish price action (MGM LVS etc).  About
    25 minutes after the open WYNN had a pullback and I entered a one third
    position (scaling in with small size) at 90.10.  It pulled back further
    and I entered another third at 89.56 on the 10 moving average.  I really
    liked the daily chart and that combined with the strength in the sector
    gave me conviction (going with my gut). 

    After checking out the 10 minute chart, I told our clients I would
    like to see it hold 89.50 but I was willing to give it to 89.40 because I
    liked the risk reward potential in this one.  The stock wicked below
    89.50 quickly to a low of 89.46 and then bounced, eventually going to
    highs and exploding.  Unfortunately, I was working other trades and was
    unable to buy another third.  I sold my last shares 92.97.

    • It’s funny how Domino’s was the one who came up with that game that mirrors a HFT program that the gangsters use in manipulate the stock market, as Tom Monaghan (founder of Domino’s) was also the founder of Legatus… which is of course the fake Catholic group that makes the decides on when to “debase” the market.  LOL

  48. Speaking about gut, I have to come up with some money for my share in a great public company that is going to give the thugs a real pain in the arse.  But with all that WE know here, I am less enthused about throwin my lot into the pot.  IF you know what I mean.  Should I do it?  Its serious history, but if the SPX goes to 500-600, I could probably buy the whole company for what I am pay for 12.5%.  Any thoughts guys?

       And peacefulwarrior, you got your drop just now.  Goodonya.

  49.      Anyone going to go long on the B wave bottom down? I know I probably won’t.  Too bearish now.

  50. Red,

    You may have already caught this, but I was looking at your Battle LA metor print.  The dow reads down 4847?  Looking at the numbers that’s (4+ 8) & (4+7) or 12 (December) & 11 (2011) …so maybe it’s another indication of the 12/7 count-down???  Since that’s supposedly not real, they could have put any numbers in there that they wanted.  Could be coincidence, but why 4847?

    • It’s on the Wibiya toolbar below under the tab called “photos”.  Or, you can go directly to my Flickr page at: http://www.flickr.com/reddragonleo and you will see it listed with all the other FP’s.  As to “what’s it about”… it’s from the movie called “Battle LA”, where the world gets attacked by Aliens.  You know how the Illuminati like to tell us in advance what they plan to do to us… and this movie is trying to tell us something.  Of course I don’t think they will be able to stage a fake alien invasion, as that plan has already been discovered by the good guys and stopped.

  51. Looks like we are having our wave 4 down this morning.  I still expect another push higher today for a final 5th wave up.  My target is still around that 116.05 spy level, or about 1160 spx.

    • I didn’t see any on it… However, the 8:00 am FP was 115.25 spy (about 1152 spx), which was hit in the first 30 minutes of trading.  Now we’ve hit it again.  We are close to “the top” of this final wave up.  Tomorrow should be ugly.

  52. We are going into the “light volume” lunchtime period, which is usually bullish.  This tells me there is still a good chance of hitting the 116.05 spy print before rolling over.

  53. One other interesting factor that I had a discussion with my advisor on is this.  Market manipulation causes me not to be able to take as many capital losses because of the new WS rule.   Basically, yes  .. ok I get shaken out of a position and take a loss.  Now I have to wait 31 days to consider getting back in or face WS rules and not being able to take a capital loss.  Really I think this is a way to skewer small and independent traders.  Perhaps I haven’t had my coffee, but yet another rule to heard the sheep.

    • I’m drinking my coffee and watching it rain (hard) outside right now.  Quite peaceful actually.  I’ve got it dark here in my room with only the computer monitors lighting up the room.  I feel like taking a nap, but the coffee keep me up.

  54.   Not a lot of discussion going on during an important day, you guys toiling for a living instead of tradin?

    • They may want to take it higher, as all this sideways chop is putting in a bull flag while the 30 minute chart resets…. not good for the bears!  What’s Arthur say?

  55.   Arthur is telling me the ELF’s are on full throttle, but no matter I am scalin in boys.  One step at a time.  Just going in now.

  56. I’m staying short. They are 95%+ done with this up move, so I’ll just ride out the remaining 5%… if they go any higher?  What I expect here is a quick squeeze above the 116.00 spy level and then a move back down. This will be done to sweep out of the bears stops…

  57. Great first fill.  Looking for the next two levels. The gangsters are really throwing as much spit as they can here.

  58. Time of the day is always important in figuring out the markets’ next move.  Now that we have put in a slightly higher high (hitting 1161 spx) then this mornings’ 1159 spx high, we could have fulfilled the bull flag that was forming all day.  I say this because we are getting close to the last hour of trading and I don’t see them making a second push higher to extend the bull flag distance.

    There is no set level or percentage that any bull flag or bear flag has to go in order to fulfill it.  It simply means that it will pop higher at some point.  Since we did move up 2 points, and make a new high, we fulfilled the bull flag pattern and now there’s no obvious pattern in the charts right now.

    They also cleared out some overhead stops that the bears placed from this mornings’ 1159 high.  This, along with the charts and the time of day, tells me that we are likely to sell off the last hour of trading.  If so, then we could put in a nice topping tail going into tomorrows’ NFP report… which should be the needle needed to pop this balloon.

  59. Well, if ritual numbers really do mean something… we topped today.  The high on the spy was 116.66 and the russell hovered at 666 at 11:11 am CST today.  If that isn’t a clue, I don’t know what is?

  60.      Arthur confirmed they want as many on the wrong side as possible.  Its why scaling is soooooo much fun. I am 10% committed and I look forward to more casino/criminal activity.

  61.    As one of my friends commented on today, its all a play, all a stage, and enjoy every stage moment.

  62. Hey Red.  Thanks for explaining your wibiya toolbar on the video update last night. I don’t seem to have the photos link on mine (i’m using Firefox 7.0.1). Any ideas?

    As an aside, does anyone here use Vantage point trading software?

    Cheers.

      • Solved it.

        Not the screen size as such (I have an 11″ laptop feeding a 19″ monitor) but probably it had something to do with the resolution as well.  When I reduced the font size (Ctrl -) a few times, more links appeared on the bar.

        Thanks!

  63.     Red, no harm no foul, I have decided NOT to post for a while.  Great site, too much so in fact.

  64. Tomorrow, 10-7-11.   Alltime stock market high was made on  10-11-07, an important bottom made on 07-01-10 with another major high on 7-7-11 (Nasdaq 2011 high).  It appears to be a Cramer Code number if deciphered correctly????

    The SuperMoon Aligned with Elenin /  BA delivery of 787, Warlock Crash Time high of September 27 should probably hold.   Let’s see if the SP can even get up to its 50 day average.

    Jeff Cooper’s 910 calendar day high for 9-02 still holds although it really should be 909 cd high to the 9-01high.

  65. Encountering energy and interference that is putting off Arthur, have to recalibrate for a few days actually.

  66. Gang, the ES is rolling over on the 4hr chart (a very important chart for larger turns) and is also putting in a long topping tail.  The VIX has also reversed from and early morning gap down, and is putting in a bottoming tail.  I don’t have any new FP’s, but I do believe the high is in for today and probably for the next several days.  I was one day early going short, but I remain short still.

  67. I think we have just about bottomed for today. We could have one more push down, but I expect them to turn this back up into the close. The dip buyers will be out in full force within an hour I believe (or less?)

  68. I think we are in a 4th wave down right now, and will have one more 5th wave up on Monday… then down.  I’ve exited my shorts and I’m sitting in cash until next Monday.  I want see that 5th wave up.

    • Actually, I still see a small chance that they will take it to the 127.07 spy FP (about 1270 spx) by opx (and the Legatus meeting).  But yes, this first “A” wave could go into that 1200-1220 resistance area before dropping for the “B” wave down.  Then the final “C” wave up into opx.

    • One should never underestimate,the big boys on what they are capable in doing.  What a marvelous way to fool the masses of traders than to ramp it up into the 1270 sp level. Their would not be many bears left in the market. I will keep a open mind and not be fixated on one particular level. You maybe right Chic, but it would not surprise me if they do ramp it up.

      All the best.

  69. well 1277 is the 200 day. id be surprised if we get above 1250 anytime soon though. capitulation happened at 1070 which was my call that morning. dam im good . never wrong lolz. then shorts squezzed. we are in no mans land. could go up could go down. oop i sound like katzo lolz.

    • I am neither a bear nor a bull. I take what the market will give me, at any point in time. The very best traders, are the ones who are neither bulls nor bears. I have enormous respect for Atilla. But yet,I have more respect for my self by not giving my power a way to NO ONE.

      For now I will play both sides. If and when the crash comes, I will be on board. Until than, I will keep on stealing from the rich (big boys) and giving to the poor. LOL

      All the best

  70. i know a few people that signed signed up for atillas high priced service and
    blew out their accounts quickly. he has been good though about direction for
    longer term but that doesnt mean you can day trade off it. 2009 wasnt pretty

  71. Gang,

    Atilla can still be correct that the market is going to collapse, as I also believe.  But, his time frame and trading style is much different then mine or others on this blog.  I trade options, and try to exit with 2-5 days.  Others trade futures, stocks, or etf’s that they can day trade (if needed?) or hold for several days if the market is trending.

    On the hand, Atilla trades intermediate trends with futures (I believe?) and has the staying power to ride out the ups and downs… where as I don’t.  Time is my enemy, and I must look for short term moves that last 2-5 days (or more).  That’s what I focus on trying to figure out with this blog.

    However, I also look at the bigger picture, and try to chart it as well.  While Atilla has certainly be correct in the past, I have also seen the market go up above his targets by 20-50 spx points… which would kill my position.  He can still ride that out, but I can’t.

    Also, let us remember the time when Atilla posted a chart with the market hitting the long term rising trendline (from 1929 I believe) and him getting upset when the market sold off some (but didn’t really crash), and then reversed back up over the following weeks (to months) to make a higher high and retest that trendline.  He wasn’t too happy with that, but I’m sure he adjusted his position to turn it into a winning one.

    However, others who stayed bearish might not have been so lucky? The lesson learned here is that while someone else is a great trader and market predictor, that doesn’t mean you can make money from following them.  Each person much focus on what time frame they trade, and try to find like minded traders that also are on the same time frame.

    Then just roll the dice and hope the stock market casino dealer didn’t give you loaded one…

    • He simply didn’t adjust his methods for outside intervention. There are things the work and other things that don’t work when Madman Ben is pumping the market. I learned that the hard way also.

      • I don’t think anyone was able to see how much manipulation was going to be done to the market over the last 2-3 years, so getting all the calls correct is impossible.  I’ve taken my share of beatings to, and many others have as well.

        So don’t get me wrong, I understand completely.  I also respect Atilla and his calls, but I have to trade my own way and time frame.  To me, it’s not who gets them all right, but who can adapt and change in time to make a profit (or at least minimize the loss).

        I’m always open to hear what he’s thinking and forecasting, but unless his best friend is Lloyd Blankfien or Jamie Dillion, I won’t just blindly follow.  I have too make my own decision… even if they turn out to be mistakes.  Needless to say, I still believe we will go up into this coming opx… and then crash.

  72. Steve Jobs born, 2/24/1955….2+2+4+1+9+5+5 = 28
    Apple established, 4/1/1976…4+1+1+9+7+6 = 28
    Apple incorporated, 1/3/1977..1+3+1+9+7+7 = 28
    Died on 10/5/2011 = 28

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