The Worst Thanksgiving Week In The Stock Market Since 1932…

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Wednesday Update...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3dya37MEu0)

Red

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And it's not over with yet, as I still fully expect a stock market crash this coming Tuesday November 29th, 2011...

Part ONE...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2YAzs4ZEc4)

Part TWO...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HicTyDbj_ik)

Will this time be different?  Did we put the bottom in on the stock market sell off last Friday, or do we have another huge sell off coming early this week?  Everything I see tells me that Tuesday is going to be a very very ugly day!  While I'm not sure about what will happen on Monday, but "if" it closes positive then we could be following the same pattern as this past August, where this Monday is equal to the positive close on August 3rd, 2011.  Nothing ever repeats exactly in the stock market, but similar patterns are common.

Notice how many red days there were prior to that date... a total of 7 starting on July 25th.  Then the one day positive close on August 3rd, which was followed by 3 more very large down days, finally bottoming out on the crash date of August 8th, with a huge rebound on the 9th.  Maybe we have something similar this week?  I'm not sure how it's going to play out, but I'm sticking with the 29th as a crash date... mainly because it's another ritual date.  Looking back at history you'll see that the stock market crash of 1929 was on October 29th, and the one in 2008 was on September 29th... is November 29th next?

No one can be 100% positive on this (except the gangsters that control the stock market), as the charts are very, very oversold right now.  A powerful rally from these oversold conditions should start soon, but picking a bottom is near impossible in most cases.  Oversold conditions can simply continue to get more and more oversold.  In fact, most all crashes are from very oversold conditions... which means that the market is ripe for a crash this week.  So, does that mean we crash or not?  I wish I knew for sure, but unfortunately I don't.

But, the rituals are important to these gangsters and letting this important date pass by without a huge down day in the market would certainly surprise me.  While I'm sure that "if" a forecast gets too much attention on the internet they will be forced to change it, some how I don't think my little blog calling for a crash on that date will make them change their evil plans.  Yes, they do have a super computer reading the internet and yes they do factor the sentiment of that data into SkyNet (or HAL 2000, depending on how old you are... LOL), which is simply the name I like to give to the computer controlling and manipulating the stock market up and down all day.  But, I think the plans are already set for the 29th, and whatever I say about it won't matter.

What happens if we crash on 11-29-11?

Depending on how big the crash is of course, I'd say we bounce hard for one to several days.  But I seriously doubt that we put in the low on that date like we did on the August 8th crash.  It's possible but unlikely, as most of the time a "lower low" or at least a "retest" of the low will be needed to call a bottom.  The monthly chart back in August was still in positive territory on the Histogram bars and pointing down.  Now it's in negative territory and still pointing down.  This tells me the down move this time should be much stronger then the previous one in August, which was pretty nasty when you think about it.  This also supports the wave count of the August crash being one large wave one down, and the current move down being a large wave three down.

This would support my thoughts that this coming "crash low" on Tuesday won't be the final low, but only support a few days of rallying before another big move down again.  We might not bottom until December the 7th, the date the Illuminati.org countdown ends on?  How low you ask?  Hard too say for sure, but I have 965 spx as an important area which I think will end this move down.  Then a rally later in December and early January for a "Santa Rally" I'd assume?

What better time to crash the markets then the holidays?  Yes, the gangsters love to trick us sheep and steal our money when we least expect it... which now of course.  Who would have expected such a large move down in the holiday season?  The gangsters would, as that's how they planned it all.  Keep the sheep distracted with stories of how wonderful Black Friday sales are and how we sheep should go spend money we don't have on stuff we don't need at prices to appear super low when compared to the over inflated original price.

Needless to say that I never bought anything during this sales event period, as I'd rather give my hard earned money to those poor bulls in the market during all the short squeezes I've been caught in over the past several years.  Yes, I want to give my money to those in need... the wallstreet gangsters, as I'd hate to see them not be able to afford their cocaine and hooker parties at the hamptons this time of year.  So, I'm going to "go long' (fingers crossed behind my back) on Monday as I just know that the super spy bot reading my posts is going to change the plans now that I've wrote about it,  and NOT crash on Tuesday the 29th! 🙂

Moving on to the short term charts (not that they actually work right now)...

Oversold, oversold, oversold... it's all I can say for the short term.  But, the larger time frame charts like the monthly and weekly aren't even close to being oversold.  They seem to be just getting started in fact.  The weekly histogram bars are about ready to go negative and the MACD's are getting a bearish cross right now.  This makes it hard to believe that the bulls can pull off a positive close on the week chart next week.  The best case will probably be a one day rally on Wednesday if we crash on Tuesday.  Then more selling on Thursday and Friday ending the week deeply in the red.  If might look like the "Flash Crash" week, or worst... one of the weeks in the crash of 2008!  Yeah, it could get really ugly next week.  I'm not sure if Monday will even have much of a chance of closing positive, but I'd sure like to see it happen that way.  That would allow a lot more selling the rest of the week as it would reset the "7 Red Days" in a row count to zero.

I'm sure there is no set rule on how many negative closes you can have in a row before a big bounce, but the higher the number is the harder it will be to close negative again the next day.  But, we are in a "once in a lifetime" period as the last time the charts were truly this bearish was the 1929 crash.  So we should expect some records to be broken here on this crash, which would include more consecutive days down in a row and more extreme reading on all bearish indicator charts.   Looking at only recent periods to compare to will probably fail to give one an accurate reading in this market.  One should compare to that 1929 period in my opinion, and assume that this one will be worst.

There really isn't much I could say about the short term charts that you don't already know.  Every chart from the daily on down to the 5 minute chart is oversold and due for a big bounce.  But, I don't think we'll see much of one as there is still NO capitulation by the bulls yet and NO signs of turning back up on the weekly and monthly charts either.  I don't have a clue about Monday, as it should close positive based on the fact that we've had 7 red closes in row, but again... these are extreme time periods we are currently in right now and we could see 8 days down in a row, or even 9 days if we crash on Tuesday as I expect.  Maybe then we get our bounce on Wednesday to break the cycle and close positive for one day?  Then back to more selling the rest of the week I'd say...

It's a holiday weekend so I'm going to end this post as a "short one" and go back to relating and doing nothing.... which is good for clearing your thoughts and mind out from all the negative influences from time to time.

Happy Crashing Everyone...

Red

Late add...

After I finished the video and speculated that we'd have Monday down and Tuesday down, making the "7 red day" streak turn into 9 days and then a rally on Wednesday, I now see the futures up nicely in this Sunday night.  This means the 7 day streak will likely be broken tomorrow (assuming they can hold these gains and close positive?), which leaves Tuesday for a "possible" slightly higher high at the open, followed by a crash the rest of the day... and down the rest of the week.  Who knows, they might still open up higher on Monday and sell off toward the close and still close in the Red?  No matter, I as still firmly believe any bounces are to be shorted at this point.

143 COMMENTS

  1. Thanks Red for the kind update.
    Personally I’m feeling “bullish” this week and sitting on some shorts I’m looking to offload within the next two trading days, but given the number of opinions I read and review, almost 80% of the people (granted this is very ballpark figure %) I follow are bullish.  I don’t know if it’s based on the fact that markets are “oversold” or “7 straight losing days” or “santa rally” or “cycle end date” but the high number is a bit disconcerting.  It is forcing me to reevaluate whether or not to feel bullish.

    Maybe we do rally and the 90% will be paid but what is really getting to me is we have not seen any high volume panic selling yet for this most recent down move.

    Also I’m not sure if the VIX is just calmly minding it’s own business but seems 100 point down weeks are no longer “frightening”

    • That’s good news for us bears nuggy, as the more people are bullish the better the odds of a crash.  People aren’t going to expect a crash if we rally 20-30 point on Monday and then roll over on Tuesday.  Most will think it’s just a “B” wave down in an ABC up move, only to watch it continue down lower and lower throughout the day, taking out every level of support on the way down.

      What I’m looking for here is a nice rally on Monday, closing at the highs.  Then possibly a gap up on Tuesday morning to make a slightly higher high, and then to tank the rest of the day as the bulls keep buying the dip on the way down and the bears sit on the sidelines waiting for the “C” up to finish so they can get short at a higher level… which won’t likely come.  I don’t know if this theory is correct or not, but we’ll find out by Tuesday I guess.

  2. Russell 2000 closed at 666.16 on Friday. Is this a short term turn date? Unlike 666 on SPX ( That was a long term turn date)?

  3. This bull flag forming should pop higher into the close or tomorrow morning.  After that I think we’ll rollover into a nasty wave 3 (multiple wave 3’s) down… a crash wave!  A possible target is the gap window at 1206 spx, but I’m just guessing there.  Regardless, after the early morning exhaustion move up, I’d be looking to go short no matter what the level actually is.

  4. I am still maintaining my shorts here, will sell some as the markets drifts lower. All the short covering has finished. Which means we should be drifting lower as I mentioned.

    • Maintaining shorts too.  Relief rally expected by all, now time to see if this has legs for the next week or two.

      Was late on the turn obviously.  Wish I bought Friday rather than waiting for Monday.  Dunno what I was thinking.

  5. I’m thinking we could go to gap window at 1206 spx tomorrow morning, and then crash. That would be a nice gap up to squeeze out any bears that go short today at the close, and to give the bulls the hope that it’s going higher. They will buy the dip once it rolls over only to keep buying the dip as it continues lower all day tomorrow and turns into a wave 3 down instead of a “B” wave down from an expected “ABC” wave 2 up.

  6. I have signals, there will be a higher high within 48 hours, on the indexes. 
    any dip tuesday, should be bought. 
    i wonder if we’ll get a RED sized dip?
    1210 target

  7. One of my weekly charts that I follow to keep my emotions in check.  I know, it’s an ugly chart!  Right now I am short due to weekly < 21MA but trendlines are holding and we haven't breached 200 weekly MA.  While I think LT we get to three digits, I am going to refrain from going all-in until the 200 weekly MA is breached.

    • I should add that based on the monthly we are currently below the mid-bollinger band @ ~1214 and it looks like the mid-band is starting to rollover.  The bottom band is rough ~1016…past two recessions, prices just skidded down the slippery lower band slope after failing.  The market seems to be trying VERY hard to get back above the mid-band after collapsing through it in August, so it seems the longer it fails to get above, the more likely the LT trend turns down.  My two cents.

  8. the IYR inverse etf’s dont have the strongest signals  to go straight down.
    they look like they can put in some up days, next 72 hours.
    so, there will be some down days on the indexes,  next 72 hours… imo.

  9. I am still holding on to my shorts here, short covering rally is finished. I will not be to worried here unless we breach the highs today. To many traders are looking at the 1206 gap. Copper and other material stocks have not given the thumbs up to this past move.

  10.     Well, Red, I am going to sell my fas and cdn etf long etfs this morning, but I gotta tell ya, I think we go higher than 1206.  But its been a very good up move up and one of the better profit moves in a while.  So I am feelin xmassie.  I see more upside, based on a couple of my indicators but its been almost 50 spx points.  And that is a pretty big move, before HAL rinses and repeats.

  11.   And guys, from growing up in the environment that I did, , they would NEVER put out a website with a countdown.  Not unless they have gone Jersey Shore.    And I guess that is possible, I don’t keep in touch any more. Lol.

      • We hit a high of 1203.67 spx… almost gap window.  I don’t think we’ll get a gap fill though?  It’s taking longer then I thought to rollover the charts, but they are all getting more and more overbought by the minute.  If we don’t crash today and simply put in a doji candle on the daily chart, then I’d expect the selling to start hard tomorrow.  I’m shocked though, as the 29th is a very ritual date for crashes.  Of course the day isn’t over yet, but it’s not looking like it’s going to tank today right now.

        • I am up and going again with my computer. That was a great FAKE OUT. All the traders were looking at that gap to be filled. Now down we go.  I am looking at the 1171 sp area to hit first. I am still looking at Wednesday to be the day for the stiff correction.

          • Let me rephrase that statement. Ist line of resistance 1185 than down to at least 1171 tomorrow.

            I am NOT looking for any crash here unlike RED. I hope he is right thou.

  12. Still holding short.  We are likely not closing above mid BB on monthly chart which I consider rather bearish however one never knows truly.

    I will remove short and go long if we have a weekly close above the 21MA on friday.  This is currently at 1211 on the SPX

    I will reshort if we hit the upper channel line connecting the july highs with the october highs which is at roughly 1260 at the moment but probably would be down to 1250 or 1240 if it gets there.

    • I see nothing bullish about this market yet.  Yes, the daily chart is oversold but the weekly and the monthly are just getting started.  We had a one day rally yesterday and that should be enough before continuing the selling.  At some point lower though we should have a powerful rally from a very oversold day chart.  I just don’t feel we are there yet.

  13. Long term view.
    A bit more rationale why I think P3 is upon us until proven otherwise.  Not sure when but it seems like at this rate, 2012 would usher in P3.

    Just looking at the 50 mth MA and the 200 mth MA, the spread between the two is seriously narrowing.  ~1160 on the 50 vs. ~1115 on the 200MA without a sign that the 50 is about to flatten.  

    The problem is the central banks would need to print some serious money in order to prevent the 50 from crossing below the 200 and they must start very soon.  When the 50 crosses the 200 on the monthly chart, it’s game over.  I don’t have the charts up since 1930s but I don’t remember the last time the 50 crossed below the 200.

    My feeling is that the 3rd wave will break right through the 50 and 200 monthly moving averages all the way to 1000, bounce off that dashed red trend line and then backtest the 50/200 cross roughly around 1100 before saying sayonara.

    • As always there’s an alternative view to this.  It may also seem like we backtested the 50 month MA this month and are on our way to 1300 but if I had to pick a side I would pick the P3 case at present time.

  14. Wow…is all one can say.  They really want this to blow up don’t they.  Lindsey might be right.  They want to pile on the debt as much as possible before pulling the plug.  Wow…

    • Yes, it looks like Lindsey Williams will be right again. They are going to keep bailing out these pigs until they are so fat with debt that they just explode!  Then we’ll see our crash in 2012 just like he said.  Too much bullshit here as this move is totally manipulated… but what’s new?  They always do this!

  15. Central banks acting together to “ease strains.”

    From my perspective, this is a valiant effort to close the month above mid-BB which is at 1215.

    If it does, I am closing shorts, and opening new month long since both the open and the close would finish above the midpoint.  It would also likely finish the week above 1211 which is 21 wk moving average.

    Shorts must stop it today or P3 probably not coming for awhile IMO.

    • I don’t have a clue at this point?  This move took me by surprise and now I’m caught short too.  At this point I think it’s quite clear that the gangsters aren’t going to let this market crash.  They are going to just print more and more money until this pig gets so fat that it explodes!

      When will that be?  Could be never, but Lindsey Williams stated that they will crash in 2012… the exact date is unknown of course, and they could change the plans?  I just don’t know what to think right now?  I see other people getting short today, but they could get squeezed again tomorrow like we got squeezed today.  Hard too win in this casino… especially when they see the cards you have in your hand.

  16. I am a bit in disbelief.  US banks get down graded, some more fluffy news from the EU .. not to mention a general strike in the UK and we get a 3% reward?

    Right .. end November on a high note .. markets settle down on Thursday and Friday … then Santa Rally.

    There is just no moderation anymore, expect + or – 2% gains any day of the week.  Thanks Red for hanging in there. 

    • Thanks Simon…

      It’s very disheartening to see such blatant manipulation continue.  It defies all the charts, but they don’t care… they just refuse to let the market trade freely.  If it did, we’d be around 4,000 on the DOW right now, with the high being put in just before the 2000 tech bubble crash.  They make Robert Pretcher look like an idiot too, but when you compare the “real” value of the market to gold, you’ll see where it really is.  Gold was under $300.00 in 2000 and now it’s around $1,800.00… which tells you Pretcher is right, even though the gangsters manipulated the stocks in the DOW to keep it up.

      • The tough nut is .. do you follow the crowd and buy into the rally like today .. or do you use common sense and say …  “there will be a pull back for a better opportunity”.   It seems lately a better strategy might be to start playing both sides of the coin.  I am still short on a few … eventually that will win out .. at the same time get long on a few .. that will win out too…. or just stay in cash and wait for a real trend .. though I doubt a good trend will actually play out.

      • Catching up…Steveo posted an indicator a couple days ago regarding a possible fake rally…we gotta make sure all possibilities are thrown out there…I simply lucked out when I blew town by dumping my shorts last week.

  17. What an F* up market. LOL, Red! Maybe you should start reading your charts upside down and then things will make better sense.
    Thats it. I’m done with this market. I wish ya’ll good luck. I will be checking in from time to time.

  18. here’s a thought.  if central bankers did not do what they did today, would today have been different?  Odds are yes.  We would have closed below 1215 and P3 odds would have been higher.

    Does this imply that monthly charts can be manipulated?  Yes

    Is there any reason why central bankers decided to wait until the last day of the month to pump it through?  Also, remember that this was a coordinated effort and wasn’t just the Fed but every major central bank across the board.

  19. So what’s new? Did I miss anything? I was overseas the last week…and can see quite the low volume BS rally.

  20. Did the site change?  I can post normally and read all of the comments.

    That oversold condition I mentioned last week has now been worked off now.  In the May to mid July 2008 scenario, once a certain little indicator returned to its current level, the stock indices sold off to new lows back down to the lower BB.

    This does have quite a hook ’em horns hockey stick spike seen before a collapse look though.

    One disturbing thing though is Barton Biggs, the ultimate Mr. Contrarian, was quoted yesterday by Bloomberg as saying that the markets looked like they could head back down to their 2008 to 2009 lows.   Well, he was spot on again as DJIA jumped 500 pts off of his comments.    But are his comments good for a one day spike or a new rally?

    Definitely one of the enlightened ones’ prime Wall Street tools.   Somehow Bigg’s continues to find employment and media coverage despite his horrible track record.   It is quite amazing.

    • From one of the bloggers from that ZH article —

      “You cannot trade this market anymore without insider information, and this demonstrates it”

      Sums it up nicely. I am out of this rigged, manipulated @#$%^&* market!

      • Just gotta keep up with the changes. I got burned last year, and have been keeping up with what the bots are doing. I could’ve given up, but after beating my head against the wall a couple hundred times, I looked at everything as objectively as possible and changed my methods. Look at it this way…how many floor traders have been blown out of the business???

        Like I mentioned, I managed to keep my profits by pure luck by being on vacation, but I wouldn’t have re-sold into a counter-trend anyway once the trend changed this week. Keep fighting! It’s a cliche from “Wall Street,” but as the Gordon Gekko character said, “You win some you lose some, but you keep on fighting. And if you need a friend, get a dog.”

        I don’t like being cowed by a bunch of inbred Harvard MBA schmucks and that’s basically what motivates me.

      • yes.  absolutely.
        it’s one big roulette wheel, and the house will WIN.

        personally.  
        I’m done with options and  I’m done with overnight positions.
        for the Year. kaput.  It’s a sidewalk game of 3 card Monte.
        I don’t intend to be the sucker.

        and, judging from the war drums & MF Global robbery.
        this Market just may not matter next year.
        Food & Shelter may be the only priority.

  21. I did not get it either .. last minute move by the US government to provide liquidity to EU.. completely unannounced until it happened. So basically where did all these “dollars” come from .. the US is in debt 54 trillion dollars .. and we can provide liquidity?   The thing is, no one addresses it .. while Alabama defaults on bonds no one is saying anything… watch out when California starts defaulting.   I am out of words for today.

    •  I’m speechless too Simon.  Not much to say right now.  The gangsters manipulate the market to such extremes that it seems pointless to even look at charts.  If you aren’t one of the insiders, then you just can’t win.

  22. Crude oil channel and resistance lines: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/12/crude-oil-channel-and-resistance-line.html

  23. the majors in the gold stocks took a hit.
    here’s my plan. if i get double bottoms on BVN and AEM and the gdx:gld reading is 33, i’ll go long GDX

  24. There is a total lunar eclipse coming up.   They can be real good
    photo op’s, sometimes turning blood red.   Whenever the sun or the moon
    goes away, triggers some very primordial instincts.    But Humans are
    above all that, RIGHT?     

    Humans are perhaps the biggest of the “Pack Animals”.   Humans
    are interesting because their ego requires them to see themselves as
    “above the animals”.   Partly this is because when you have the
    intelligence to develop Relativity Physics, see into the DNA of
    ourselves, and yet spend 75% of all bandwidth on the internet watching
    porn, there is a conflict between reality and perception.    This is the
    start of insanity, the building up of little lies, snowballing into
    bigger lies to prevent having to face and admit reality.   One reader
    had expressed this as “Insane Hairless Monkeys”.

     

    Einsteen had it wrong.    He stated that insanity is doing the same action over and over and expecting different results.

     

    That
    is not insanity, that is stupidity.  Insanity is a whole different
    thing.    Perhaps for Einstein his greatest fear would have been losing
    the ability to pee-conceive cause and effect relationships, and his
    second greatest fear was losing his mind, so he put them together as
    meaning the same thing.   

    So it is funny to watch Humans pretending to be non-animals,
    “above all the animals”.    It is funny to see humans denying that the
    moon or some sun spots could affect their behavior.    Ignorance and
    denial helps promulgate these series of little lies that help Humans see
    themselves above the animals as a matter of type, and not just a matter
    of degree.

    Enjoy the moon, it is a gift.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  25. A nice little Alex Jones-Gerald Celente produced video on MF’er Jon Corzine, Joe Biden, and bank holidays:     http://www.sgtreport.com/2011/11/sgtreport-exclusive-celente-corzine-and-the-great-u-s-bank-holiday/

    Disclaimer:  bank holdiays generally occur at market bottoms and until Europe collapses, I doubt there will be one.   Maybe if BAC approaches $1 a share but I am sure that would be accompanied by quite some hysteria in the markets and news.

  26. Thinking I made a mistake putting on a long at Friday’s close.  Fortunately, it’s pretty small.  It seems channel resistance is very strong and also the 21 MA has been declining at a pretty fast pace and RUT failed to be pinned at resistance.

    Looking for a test of 1216-1220 on SPX this week.  Not sure what will happen but I will make sure I’m strong short if 1216-1200 fails miserably since there’s a lot of thin air after that.

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