... by Ali Firoozi Yasar
A shot to the new highs but April is the month you need to watch closely!
As you know, incoming US economic data in early 2014 have been largely disappointing and the Fed blames the weaker performance mainly on the impact of unseasonably cold weather on consumer spending, industrial activity and construction. In January, retail sales data came out well below expectations, existing home sales and housing starts started trending significantly lower, US manufacturing activity also appeared to be decelerating , industrial production declined at the beginning of the year, durable goods orders continued to contract and ISM manufacturing index dropped to an eight month low.
US real GDP is expected to advance 2.8% this year and 3% in 2015, roughly a percentage point above 2013. Actually, the Fed believes the events and factors at play are short-lived and the US economic recovery remains intact. Actually, this bunch of weak economic data has not yet convinced them to let the market drop as it has all been the weather’s fault not anybody else….
As for the geopolitical tensions, Ukraine crisis cannot just be ignored. Actually, it is a global crisis and will not be a one-day news story which will fade away soon. You see, it has a real potential to be escalated real soon. All eyes are on Russia and Ukraine, watching them closely.
As you saw, after a sharp decline to open the trading session on Monday, the markets immediately recovered all over the trading day following Mr. Putin’s latest statement, relieving the buyers who were actually looking for value on the dip, and the buying has been continuing to open up the session for tomorrow so that we can see a shot back to the highs. In fact, buyers are all in control, buying the dip whenever they get a chance and we may also have new all time highs. But how much is it going to last?
In my previous post, I mentioned that the market could exceed the levels on my charts, as I somehow knew the “central planners” would be able to get the situation under control, and then put the blame on the bad weather. But how are they supposed to fight the serious events that are about to come up in April. Yes, you heard me, April! Actually, next month will be a rough month for investors and financial markets. Keep an eye out for the markets around these dates, April 15th, 24th and 29th.
I have repeated over and over again that the market will have to correct on the monthly chart as the cycle has just completed and they (central planners) are trying their hardest to hold it up as much as they can. Whether it is a serious geopolitical tension or a financial crisis which might pop up out of nowhere in April and cannot be blamed on the weather, the stock market will have to retrace a major portion of the gains which has been accumulated since the rebound of 2009. If that does not happen, I will sure need to go back to the drawing board to just find out what is wrong with my cycle analysis.
May you profit handsomely,
Ali
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... by Red
Is this the start of Primary 4 Down or is there one more move higher still to come?
(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=atoahCbWYt0)
Looking at the charts on the various time frames I could argue a case for both scenario's. One will be right and one will be wrong so we simply have to play the safest bet which I think will be long around the middle to the end of this coming week... but ultimately we know that the powers that be already know which one will play out and it's our job to read their minds.
For right now I think we can all agree that the direction is currently down. But a bottom should appear sometime this week, with the 19th-21st being the idea time frame. Why? Simple really. The coming FOMC meeting on Wednesday the 19th should gives us the clues we need. Assuming that nothing changes and the Fed's decide to continue with their plans to withdraw more of the QE money then we should logically expect some negative reaction from it afterwards. But, as we all know, the market thinks and reacts ahead of the news... which means that "most" of the selling should be about over with by the time the news is released.
I'm looking for a target low of 1810-1815 SPX for the first area of support. But, I suspect that for that level to work out as being the low we really need to rally some ahead of this coming FOMC meeting. Technically, we are do for a bounce but with the meeting still in front of us I suspect that we will not bounce any and just continue drifting lower due to the fear of the "unknown" from whatever will be said at the meeting. So, we could actually drop to that zone going into the meeting instead of bouncing up to an overhead downward sloping trendline of resistance in the 1860 area.
While we know that one should never trade off the news as it's already built into the charts ahead of time we also should know that with some pending (possibly negative) news lurking just a few days away shouldn't expect any turn back up just because some short term charts are getting oversold. The market does react to news as it's put out their by the powers that be to mislead the sheep in the wrong direction by having something to blame the selling or buying on. Of course if there was no Fed meeting this week then I'd expect the market to bottom around the open on Monday and start rallying from oversold short term charts... but that's not the case here!
So, we should expect the market to chop around until the FOMC minutes are released Wednesday around 2:15 pm, with a downward bias of course. I suspect that we'll end up dropping to that 1810-1815 area prior to the meeting... which should get a lot more short term charts (and the daily too) in an oversold condition, which means the bottom will be near.
Then once the news is announced that they have decided to "stay the course" (meaning to continue withdrawing money) we should see another move down out of fear (done by the retail sheep of course), which could drop us to the rising trendline of support in the 1790 area. Bears should be all over it as it breaks down through the "even number" level of 1800 and that's about when I think we'll bottom.
I've noticed that "Skynet" (the name I've given to the super computer that manipulates the market) has routinely pierced through important levels briefly to lure in the last retail sheep just before switching and going the opposite direction. It should be the same thing for the bulls "if" we rally up to new higher highs in the coming month hit 1900... which of course should be pierced by 5-10 points to trap those bulls long. While I don't know if we are going up to new highs or not I do believe the coming low will trap the bears short... which is why I suspect 1800 will be broken briefly.
I've seen this happen many times in the past and have calculated that these moves usually last 18-20 calendar days and drop 80-100 SPX points. They also don't give use bears many chances to get short with a decent bounce. While I'd love to see a bounce to that downward sloping trendline of resistance (around 1860 now) we might not see it at all? That bounce might not show up until after we bottom in the 1790 area, and then it will of course be lower (in the 1850 probably).
I think the thing to do is to see where the market trades at on Monday and Tuesday prior to the meeting. If it doesn't fall to the 1810-1815 area and instead chops around in this 1840 zone then we could see some brief rally up to hit that trendline right around the FOMC minutes to scare out the bears that are currently short. Then a drop to that 1790 area within a couple more days following the meeting. That would suggest a low by Friday the 21st, which could be the plan Skynet has for us sheep?
The other plan would of course be a continue drop into the meeting with a low in the 1810-1815 area when the minutes are released, followed by some panic selling to the 1790 area, and then a rally back up to start from that day forward into the rest of the week or more. The only thing I see here that has high odds is that we will continue down more next week and probably bottom in the 1790 area. Then the rally that follows could put in a lower high (then the 1883 high) or make one last higher high in the low 1900 area.
Therefore the safest plays I see here are to short any decent bounces with a exit low area of 1790 and then get long for a rally to at least the downward sloping trendline of resistance, which should be in the 1840-1850 by then. After that I don't know? We'll have too see what the charts tell us at that time as well as the propaganda being pitched to us sheep on the main stream media news channels.
If they continue to preach the end of the market scenario then we should expect the resistance to be broken and another higher high is likely. If they talk about the market going to new all time highs then we should be shorting and expecting that resistance to hold and the expected right shoulder (of what should then make up a nice "head and shoulders" pattern) to become some type of "Wave B" up or "Wave 2" up... meaning a big wave down should follow.
It's really too early to know which will play out so for now I'll just be focused on this coming week and will as always give you guys updates in the comment section as things change and play out in real time. Making forecasts this far in advance are just to be used as a general road map of what to look for... not to trade off. The charts change daily and the best I can do is tell you what I see today. Always read the comments for updates.
Red
We hit our upside resistance zone and backed off as I expected. However, it was pretty powerful and it’s not acting like it wants to give up those gains. I suspect that morning gap up wave will turn out to be some type of A wave up… meaning we are in some B wave down. If so, then they should break through that resistance zone on the next hit and make a run up for the current high.
At the rate we are moving up it’s certainly looking like they are going to be at a “high” when the FOMC minutes are released this Wednesday and not a “low” as previously thought. However, I would not short it as history shows that a good 80%+ of FOMC days are bullish.
So, chances are that we’ll make a double top, slightly lower top, or pierce through to hit the 1900-1910 area before this rally turns back down. It should happen between this Wednesday the 19th and Friday the 21st.
Well, they rallied the market into the Fed meeting. It did seem suspicious when news of the drone being brought down by the Russians was released just a bit before the market close on Friday. Google, $ndx, and copper were looking precarious as all were making new month lows and below their lower BBs. The last two days have alleviated those conditions. Anyway, there needed to be an intervening bounce before the next Pi date.
Now a 700 year anniversary is upon us and will the Fed commemorate it with its next release. The dollar so far has bottomed as of Thursday with a retest of the low on Friday and doji days this week. It seems to be waiting for the Fed release. Meanwhile, gold and TLT seemed toppy on Friday and appeared to be indicating that crisis in the Crimea would be waning.
Well the Russians did fire an ICBM on Mardi Gras per the Clooney 1987 Gravity reference and then took down a drone last Friday. (In Gravity, they shoot down their own satellite setting in motion the disastrous chain of events in the film). It’s interesting to note the director of Gravity ended up writing and directing a pilot that appeared last week on US TV which was rather uninteresting but it also had a JJ Abrams connection(producer) who coincidentally was the famed producer of Lost. I never watched Lost but I ended up checking out the Flight 815 crash episode on youtube and suddenly noticed the similarities to the transpiring Malaysian Airlines episode. The 111 of the airliners debris in the sky followed by 11 in the next shot (in the form of an inverted V) seems to be indicating a sign of the end times for now. 111=31….11=21 or (7x7x7) or 777….ie Flight 370 ….BA 777…. BAs stock is getting a little heavy….down again today.
SILVER Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/silver-chart-analysis_19.html
Pretty nasty move down after the FOMC minutes today. Chart wise, we should continue this down move and not put in another higher high. Of course there is the manipulation factor to remember.. meaning they could ignore the charts and rally up and not break the 1839.57 low recently.
But if the allow the charts to play out that low should break and we should be heading down toward the 1810-1815 area, followed by the 1790 area where the weekly support current is at. As long as it holds the bull market is still intact as I shown in the video.
This move hasn’t played out exactly as I thought it would as I really expected a bottom into the FOMC meeting, not a top. But the overall picture remains the same. That 1790-1800 zone where the weekly rising support line is at (from 1074 SPX back in October 2012) is the target.
Once it’s hit we should expect a bounce from it. Then we’ll see if it will just be another lower high or a higher high. It’s too early too tell right now but I’m leaning toward a lower high currently based on what I see in the charts.
hey red, well, we held the line of 1875..and we’re on the way.
I would say weekly support is the lower weekly bol’, that is currently 1760…not too far away from the Feb’ low of 1737.. a mere 1.3% higher.
Were we to hit 1760/50..I’d be open to a bigger HS formation that opens up 1625/1575 in a few months.
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At that point, would you not think Yellen will reverse, and increase QE?
The problem is that we have the daily chart wanting to go back up on from oversold stochastic but the MACD’s are overbought. The histogram bars are in oversold conditions pointing up.
The shorter term charts are in a similar fashion. This makes for a choppy market with moves up and down for awhile longer before going down for a big move. So I wouldn’t take a big position either way just yet. Great for day traders though, but looking for a multi-day swing move isn’t something I see here yet.
I’m not 100% convinced that there’s still not some higher high yet to come before we drop hard. But, I’m also not convinced that we have started the big move down already. My best guess is that we won’t see a clear direction until next week. I think we need 3-6 more days for the daily chart to get overbought and ready to drop. Hopefully the weekly chart will also be ready to break the support line.
The weekly chart flashed a provisional warning last week.
We’ve already broken back <1858 again…which is the SECOND weekly warning.
Now, bears need 1875…bulls should be increasingly concerned.
Possibly we chop it up until Monday from the looks of it. With Quadruple Witching this Friday for OPEX I’m not expecting a big move either way. Then they should hammer out a clear trend (down of course) starting next week, with even a ‘possible’ gap down on Monday?
Yeah..could chop….but..hey..the line is 1875…so..we can’t go above that.
I gotta guess the low 1840s tomorrow..and maybe a weekly close in the 1850s.
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All things considered.. it looks weak on those weekly charts!
We’ve spent too much time in the 1880 SPX area, which means there’s a lot of bear stops just slightly above that zone. Even though the charts are bearish right now I still think “SkyNet” will sweep up above that zone and clear out those stops before we drop.
Gold chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/gold-engulfing-pattern.html
Huge move up in the dollar today and I see no one mentioning it. The TD count finally worked with it. I believe it got to the exhaustion 21 point on the doji day on Monday. That’s probably the most bearish confirming indicator. First crude oil topped in a similar pattern, more recently gold, and now in reverse the dollar, or the euro in the topping manner. Dollar also finished above its 20 day average/mid bollinger band line. SP at its intraday low took out its last 15+ something hourly candles…basically every candle for the week except the opening monday candle.
A certain component of a certain little indicator went negative today after bouncing into positive territory yesterday but the indicator is still in deeply positive territory, generally not an area for a crash but let’s see what transpires.
Harvard with the upset of Cincinatti earlier in the day in the NCAA tournament. Harvard once again with the 12-5 upset in the tournament. The STATUE OF 3 LIES reveals the Truth!!!!!
Harvard on the 376 year cycle according the Statue of 3 Lies but missed the 377 year cycle by a year. It looks like Bitcoin played the part of the tulip in the 377 year cycle but technically it’s still active. 377===314, PI. I need to reacquaint myself with some Social Network dialogue.
1987 icon Rick Pitino and his defending champ Louisville Tigers were almost upset by his protege’s Manhattan team but it looks like they are being set up for a loss in a rematch with Witchita State next week. WS probably should be the defending champ except for the 1987 ritual as in last year’s Final 4 match up Louisville apparently was allowed to mug the Shockers with impunity something which I noticed in the finals against Michigan. 1987 champ Indiana didn’t even make the tournament this year so denouement is possible before the 2014 tournament ends.
Anyway, for the markets today’s “big” upday featured slightly negative breadth sending a certain little indicator on its continued southward trek. Transports were down as apparently Fedex has terrible earnings and predicted terrible winter conditions for the rest of year in their earnings guidance. Retail stocks were down and the nasdaq and russell 2000 had weak updays. Dollar continued its rally and is nearing its upper BB. Nikkei is also in a precarious condition dropping down to its lower BB last night with the lower band flaring open. $hgx index(housing) doing the same thing—down on the day as well.
Popgun’s 38th birthday is coming up but I like the 37 number better….might need to revisit some of his Superbowl stats but can they compare to his record breaking 55 tds for the year.
Getting close to a breakout new high, which should hit some time next week I think. If it’s early in the week then I’d think we’d be in the 1890 area, but it could be later in the week and be closer to the 1910 zone.
I’d look for 1890 area on “Turn Around Tuesday” and/or the 1910 zone on Thursday. The problem is that the weekly chart is still bullish, but in overbought territory. So even if we top next week and start to drop we could fall all the way down to the rising trendline on the weekly (around 1790-1800) and as long as it held the bulls would still be in control.
But, that’s about a 100 point drop, which is still a very nice move down. In the past moves down that averaged 80-100 points took 18-20 calendar days, so I’d expect the same thing here. However, even if the support holds the charts should incur enough technical damage to allow them to break after the bounce off the trendline ends.
My best guess is that we’ll top out next Thursday and then start the 18-20 day drop to the 1790-1800 area. Then bounce for awhile and drop again later in April breaking the rising trendline of support from October 2012 (around 1074 SPX then). At that point we could safely assume that Primary Wave 4 down has started.
Duke upset by Mercer in the NCAA Tournament. Warren Buffett’s billions should be safe now.
Thinking about last year’s champs, the Louisville Cardinals, they were the 1986 champs so if the 1987 champs don’t work out for the ritual, I guess you can always use the previous year’s champs especially when they’re helmed by a 1987 icon. The 1987 champs, the Indiana Hoosiers were a #1 seed last year but failed to make it to the Final 4. The star of that squad, the tournament MVP and 1987 player of the year, Steve Alford, did get the crown jewel of basketball schools’ gig at UCLA last year and they did look quite impressive in their first round game tonight. And they are Bears after all. I saw quite a 1 11s flashed in the game as well on the Tulsa side which was helmed by Danny Manning, the 1988 NCAA champ and player of the year. The Bruins were flashing a lot of 45s at times in conjunction with a 3 at times. 4 11 (42 I guess) as well. Noticed the 4 11 backcourt combo for Gonzaga as well, the 11 being John Stockton’s kid.
As for today’s action, the $hgx and the biotech index got creamed down to and below their lower BBs today setting up a precarious postion for Monday, coincidentally Popgun’s 38th birthday. Dollar had a small pullback today setting up for an attack of its upper BB band while its shorter term moving averages start to catch up to the dollar’s initiation upthrust and mid BB line gets in position to turn up with the dollar. USO went up and tried to tag its mid BB line near the open and then fell back.
april 11 is a double 11 day could be final high of year !
And the 22nd is a double eleven too, but it’s also a 33 day.
SPY Analysis After Close: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/spy-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
Dayton and Stanford move on to face each other in the Sweet 16. I’d say Warren’s billions are Really safe now.
Biotechs, GOOG, NFLX, the Nasdaq indices and the Housing Index all dropped to and through their lower BBs today portending something ominous on the horizon. Only problem is there still is a disconnect between them and the SP , Dow, transports which still need to drop to their lower BBs. Usually a pause is seen once the indices hits their lower BBs. RTH dropped to its lower BB but they are still contracting and the 20 day average is still rising and needs to flatten before RTH can continue its march southward.
It looks like all the brackets were busted by Friday, 25 games in. So no sweat for old Warren. He also says he wouldn’t mind paying out the billion (s) either.
We’re coming upon the next PI dates…… 3-27==237????? Nasdaq indices are back down and through their lower BBs and below their month opening lows. They as well as the Biotechs, $rut also finally closed beneath their 50 day averages. Dow and SP and NYA are holding up better but even their 10 day averages have dropped below the 20 day averages. The dollar seems to be forming a triangle over the last several days. Gold tanking hard.
More later. Need to beef up on insights from the trollosphere.
ES Charts: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/es-chart-update_27.html
Interesting that this Stanford team playing right now is coaced by the 1986 NCAA player of the year whose team lost to 1986 champion Louisville (now coached by Rick Pitino) in the championship game.
Tonight’s big matchup game between Florida and UCLA will see 2 1987 bball icons going at it as the head coaches. UCLA helmed by 1987 player of the year, Steve Alford of the eventual 1987 champion Indiana team vs. Billy “the Kid” Donovan star of the 1987 Rick Pitino-helmed Providence team. And to add an interesting twist to the episode, Providence won its region on the Louisville home court (south region final). Of course, Louisville is the defending national champ and coached by Rick Pitino. Providence and Indiana did not play each other in the tournament. I did notice Tulsa made the tournament in 1987 as it did this year when it played UCLA in the first round (the current incarnation helmed by 1988 NCAA player of the year Danny Manning in a 4-13 matchup…Pi reversed)
Louisville will be playing the Kentucky 1 and Doners on Friday. Kentucky is Pitino’s last college coached team but they have played each other numerous times since Pitino’s return to the college ranks including earlier in the year so I don’t know if there is a ritual hidden in there, nor do I understand the significance of Kentucky, a traditional bball powerhouse.
Then moving onto global affairs, we have the Crimean War ritual to deal with. 160 years ago, Britain and France declared war on Russia on March 28 (some articles include the 27th).
The Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Biotech stocks, retail ETFs XRT and RTH continued their move down the lower BB ladders today without crashing while the SP made an attempt at its lower BB and even saw it flare open to the downside. The Dow saw the most muted action as it didn’t come close to its lower BB. Meanwhile, a certain little indicator continues to meander southward while its Nasdaq version is moving at a more rapid pace and is a little more oversold with it approaching its lows from late last year.
Perusing the trollosphere, it does appear bullishness is rampant. Either trolls are exiting their fictitious bearish positions or they are recommending traders to take profits. Others calling for temporary lows with a short term bounce due and then calling for the decline to continue sometime next week. Others’ signals turning short-term bullish or technicals not reaching bearish levels today. But today’s slightly negative down day was seen in a similar position just before a certain little event a little more than 3 years 10 months ago. (22 days or PI?) A certain little indicator isn’t as oversold/negative (nor it’s component) as it was then (but the Nasdaq qualifies). 203 weeks ago…..or 203×7….
Tomorrow is 1274 tds from 3-6-9.
UCLA and Tulsa did not face each other in 1987 but they were next to each other in the bracket playing in the same region. UCLA like now was a 4 seed while Tulsa was an 11 seed. Tulsa lost to Oklahoma in the first round while UCLA was upset in the second round.
3 former Tulsa head coaches, Nolan Richardson (Arkansas), Tubby Smith (Kentucky), Bill Self (Kansas) have gone on to win National championships as coaches. Danny Manning was hired on April 4, 2012. He was on the coaching staff of 2008 champion Kansas, coached by Self so maybe that’s the Kansas connection there. Kansas did face the then Memphis 1 and Doners coached by current Kentucky coach John Calipari in 2008 while winning the championship in 1988.
The 1987 final four games were played on March 28 and then the 30th.
Bank of america analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/bank-of-america-analysis-after-closing_28.html
1986 NCAA champ Lousville, helmed by 1987 bball icon Rick Pitino was done in by the Kentucky 1 and Doners tonight.
Last night, UCLA led by another 1987 icon, Steve Alford, lost to the #1 seed Florida Gators led by another 1987 icon Billy the Kid Donovan with the Gators playing the noted Pitino brand of basketball, full court pressing and running and gunning. They will face Dayton on Saturday for a 1-11 matchup.
In the other Thursday night game, #1 Arizona upended San Diego state, helmed by the 1989 champion coach of the Michigan Wolverines and later of the famed Fab 5. The latest Michigan team also moved on tonight as a #2 seed and will face the #8 seed 1 and Doners. The other bracket will feature a 4-7 matchup.
Monday 3-31 is the last chance for the 111 to make any sense and it doesn’t appear anything drastic will happen now that the new moon will have passed by then. I’ve been following a fractal from the last time the Russians messed around their neighbors around the time of the Olympics (MMM is also following this fractal) and the Dow and SP seem to be following it and it appears a big down day could be in the offing on Monday. The Nasdaq leading the way then as it is now hugging its down flaring BB is also following the fractal.
Breadth was slightly negative today on the Nasdaq while the NYA had strong breadth but a component of a certain little indicator did not reach positive territory while its Nasdaq version is still deep in negative territory.
Somehow I missed that the biotechs were down 2.6% today. And they basically took out the previous day’s hammer candle which really is a negative development.
Blackberry weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/blackberry-weekend-update.html
Facebook support levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/facebook-support-levels.html
GOLD Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/gold-below-200-day-sma.html
Nasdaq has bounced back to its 20 day average. Crude oil was hammered today along with DBC (mega TD bear flip), dollar continues in its triangle formation.
And I noticed quite an extreme disparity in the equity put call to index put call ratio with the former basically dropping to yearly lows while $cpci shot up to probably yearly highs. It’s very rare that these pc ratios have any predictive value but today’s extreme disparity is so unusual that it might be signalling something (ie dumb money to smart money comparison)
60 min charts are putting in divergences at these levels and double top areas for the Dow and SP and we got the first of the month pump job out of the way. Rather see a strong up day first of the month than strong down day like early February. Also we had the infamous three up days in a row off a bottom with the 3rd day being the strongest pop in particular in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, ending up at the 20 day average. Dow and SP up at upper BB resistance in a narrow BB channel.
Tomorrow 4-2 will be 666 days from the grand reunion/ demise of Ray Bradbury. 27 days from March 6th/ 1277 trading days from 3-6-9.
Crude oil finally collapsing through its 50 day average would be a very bearish signal something I have been waiting for. Also the Australian dollar needs to start collapsing, currently just off multi-week highs but down today.
ES Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/es-chart-analysis.html
TLT putting in the pattern recently seen as crude oil, gold, and the euro topped out. Maybe I should trademark the pattern ala TD. TLT now dropping below its 20 day average—mid line of the BB. Rates up would really upset housing which has already been hit by rising rates. $hgx down today. TLT dropping to new yearly lows would be confirmation of denouement but that is still a way’s off. Similar pattern to the lesser grand ritual. Of course, we should look to the great astro event now for denouement. It’s a little too obvious but I guess this is behind everything.
Tomorrow is 4-3, 666 days from the grand reunion part deux. Recent Popgun embarrasment Superbowl score 43-7….ie 8-7. Continue to look at the fractal off the 8-8-8 Russian event, still similarities even though SP is putting in a new doji high…..unconfirmed by about every index.
Wow, I really jinxed that. The Dow should just go to 16666 now.
Oh I forgot, tomorrow is 39 weeks from 7-4 or look at this 273 days later or 237years 273 days from you know when. 337 days from the other great event of the year…..
Today’s SP high 1893.17 minus 666.79===1227.38. I like that number except for the 38 unless it implies 888. Maybe SC revises it later.
The Superbowl with the ritualistic safety off the first play of the game to get the score to end at 8 for the Broncos as the ball was hiked over Popgun’s head.
Never did my Superbowl recap here but it looks like the NFL rescinded it’s stand down order for defenses playing Popgun and allowed “nature” to take its course. Of course after last year’s victor put up 34 pts and this year’s victor put up 43 maybe things weren’t so natural….??
I guess my math was off by a point yesterday so today’s high for the SP at 1893.9 minus 666.79 should be 1227.11…..that looks like a better number. The close at 1888.76 is another interesting number and today’s high has the 93 both forward and reversed.
The dollar as expected thrusted upward over and out of the triangle that has been forming the last couple of weeks. Didn’t see the news but there was ECB meeting earlier today.
SP and Dow did an interesting thing today. Made slight new intraday highs followed by negative closes with the Dow down slightly at the end. This was seen at the secondary high in double ninen. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were battered hard today in comparison. Dow’s high was 16604? SC’s chart doesn’t show it there but close enough to 16606?
There was a minor change reading yesterday.
Copper was in the identical situation yesterday as it was back in late September 2008, bouncing up to its 50 RSI reading, beneath both its 50 and 200 day averages with the 50 beneath the 200 and the spread between the two about the same.
SC now has the SP close at 1888.77
As long as these stories are all over the main stream media I wouldn’t be looking for any huge drop… http://marketsblog.usatoday.com/2014/04/02/is-a-1987-type-market-crash-37-days-away/
…but what about May?
You know as well as anyone the bulls face a wall in May.
We remember the sharp washout in 2010, and the initial peak in May of 2011 – to be followed by the major down wave of late July-August.
2012 and 13…completely minor moves…
So…what about this late spring/summer?
Yes Permabear I’m still expecting a correction but not a crash like 1987 was. Could it be a “flash crash”… sure. But I’m only looking for around 10% minimum to 20% maximum on the downside in total. How fast it drops is something I don’t know? But no 1987 crash… not yet at least. Maybe next year?
Time frame on it… hard too say? I’d look for this coming April 11th (double eleven day as it’s a 22) and April 22nd as it’s 33 and also a double eleven. Remember that the May 22nd date in 2013 was a 33 and another double eleven. It also was in the middle of a Legatus meeting so odds of a turn there were HUGE (which produced about a 10% drop).
This time we don’t have any Legatus meeting around it, but odds of a turn there still are HIGH, so I’d look for both dates, with the 22nd being the preferred one. Also, the 18th is option expiration for the monthly’s (which is usually a bullish week), so that too increases the odds for the 22nd versus the 11th… but watch both.
One more thing… since we are in a “magic 7 year” as we were told by Christine Lagarde I’d look for seven’s too as possibly she’s indicating that elevens aren’t as important this year and that seven’s will be the new one to pay attention too. Just food for thought as we don’t really know either way…
Hmm, I suppose we might max out in late April, but regardless, this rally is getting old.
Just reflect on the fact that this is month’ 31 UP , since the Oct’2011 low of sp’1074.
*one little thing the bears do have to look forward to is another QE-taper at the April’ 30 FOMC.
Every dollar less of QE-pomo is going to remove a little bit more of the underlying market bid.
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Thanks for the detailed list of ideas, I do appreciate the reply.
What I’d suspect then Permabear is to start the selling at some point in April and then bottom into May where the “sell in May and go away” slogan will be pump all over the MSM news outlets… but it won’t crash and will instead start the final Primary Wave 5 up that should last into 2015 on the short side and 2016 on the long side.
Naturally this coming correction will then be labeled Primary Wave 4 down as we are still in Primary Wave 3 up from the 1074 low in 2011. How long will Primary 5 up last? Don’t know? But I really REALLY think we MUST have some major crazy new high (DOW 30,000?) before we finally top out.
Could it do it by January 2015 when Lindsey Williams says the Obamacare plan goes into effect for all companies and people, (whereas now it’s apparently not in “mandatory” effect for companies), I guess it’s possible.
But we all know how they like to go to extremes on the market, which tells me something will come up and delay it another year and we’ll see the real top in 2016. Note that 2+0+1+6=9, which is completion… just more food for thought.
This top today of 1897.28 could be the top as it’s just under the 1900 level that I thought we’d go up to and end the rally. If so, then I’d expect this to start the first wave 1 down and then the wave 2 up should go into either the 11th or 22nd, followed by a nasty wave 3 down.
However, this market could go down to 1800 area and still be in a bullish trend on the weekly chart. So if we go down to that level and hold then that could be all we’ll get on the downside for awhile.
Looking at the charts this wave 1 down could go to the 1850 area and then bounce back up for wave 2, which could be a brief bounce of only 38.2% or something… or a hard “fake out” squeeze to almost another new high. Hard too say which one?
I don’t think there is any positive news out there between now any the 30th when the FED’s are expected to cut another round of stimulus out of the market, so that certainly not something the market will like. Therefore the rally back up could be short.
Since the market always trades in advance (like the old saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” and “sell the rumor, buy the news”) we could also bottom on the 22nd, chop around some with a wave 1 up and wave 2 down just prior to the FED’s meeting on the 30th and then rally in a wave 3 up on the announcement.
Most retail traders will be shorting then as they expect the FED’s to cut again, which they likely will… but SkyNet (the super computer running the market) knows that and will likely squeeze those shorts in a rally on the bad news.
Therefore, we must anticipate that and look for a bottom in that time zone. Of course if we bottom around 1800 on the 11th for example and then rally into the 22nd then I’d expect the next move down to break the weekly support from 2011 (starting at 1074 and currently at 1800), which implies a much larger drop with the high 1600 area as the next target.
But for now I think it’s safe to short the bounces until 1800 area and then re-check again to see what the charts look like and what day it is, as the time frame for this to happen seems likely for the period between now and the coming FOMC meeting on the 29th/30th of this month.
http://screencast.com/t/kYKrcJhGTX
FACEBOOK Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/facebook-weekend-update.html
SPY Update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/spy-weekend-update.html
Certainly looks like the low is in for now. While we could see one more smaller wave down sometime today (probably a small wave 2 with the move up from the low this morning being a small wave 1 up) I’d expect bounce on “Turn-around Tuesday” to happen.
Is the low in from this sell off? I think “not”, as this first bounce will very likely be shorted and we should see a move down again later this week. My target low is that 1800 area (to complete a 5 wave pattern from the high last Friday) to make this first larger wave 1 down and hold the weekly support from the rising trendline starting at 1074 in 2011.
Then from that 1800 area I’d expect a very choppy larger wave 2 up that should last a couple of weeks to shake out both bulls and bears. In fact it’s looking like it “could” actually last all the way until the 22nd, which is my preferred “next top” date. Then a larger wave 3 down should start that I could see dropping as low as 1680 or so.
Put in a lower low then this morning so we still haven’t started any bounce yet it seems. I get the feeling it will be sharp and quick Tuesday morning but fad later in the day. Then we should break this current support range of 1850 and head toward 1800 later in the week. That area should hold and allow a choppy rally up until the 22nd.
First 8-7 seed matchup in NCAA basketball final history tonight. The Kentucky 1 and Doners vs. Connecticut….don’t see a lot there especially with U Conn but the 1 and Doners were the first team to advance to the Final 4 with 5 starting freshman since the Michigan Fab Five back in ’93. And Kentucky beat Michigan to get into the Final 4 this year in another interesting twist. The last overt link to 1987, the Florida Gators led by Billy the Kid Donovan of ’87 Providence fame got bounced out of the tournament Saturday by the 1 and Doners.
Well, UConn’s coach has an interesting bit of numerology. He was born on 12-27-72.
Bank of America testing support levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/bank-of-america-testing-support-levels.html
Remember the old saying about the low being put in the Thursday or Friday the week prior to option expiration week (which is next week)… therefore I believe we’ll have a low put in by the end of this week. I suspect it will be close to 1800 (give or take 10 points). Then a choppy rally until the next ritual date of the 22nd, followed by another (bigger) leg down.
Based on the charts I think we’ll see a slightly higher high tomorrow (then today’s close) and then we’ll pullback the rest of the day and probably just choppy on Friday. The next down move should happen next week from the looks of the charts.
I suspect it will happen early (like Monday/Tuesday) and then rally into Friday as it’s option expiration week. Possibly a little more follow through on that up move into Monday the 21st with a final morning peak on the 22nd… then down!
Is the Nasdaq imitating the action of the SP leading up to and on September 8, 2008? A certain component of a certain little indicator did bounce to the 0 line today while the Nasdaq version finished slightly negative. The Nasdaq is still underneath its 50 day average and just like the bounce on the aforementioned date did not reach its 50 day average.
I did finally figure out the 1987 connection to the Men’s NCAA hoops champ Connecticut Huskies but that’s for a later post. UConn, the lowest seeded team to win the title since #8 Villanova did it in 1985. UConn a 7 seed this year “upsetting” the 8 seeded 1 and Doners. Once again Vegas cleans up as the hyped and favored 1 and Doners lose outright.
So this was a Fed minutes-induced pop today although the market was already rallying into the release. Sounds like a technical oversold bounce.
Here’s what I see… http://screencast.com/t/LashFQA5RI
First upside target should be the 1860 area for next week, with Monday/Tuesday being the likely time period for it to hit. That’s from a falling channel and goes lower everyday, so Tuesday it could only be 1855 area.
All of next week should be choppy with wild swings up and down, but “if” this forecast is correct we shouldn’t take out the current low nor take out the current high. We should be range bound with and upward bias all week.
Then Friday and Monday (the 21st) would be the ideal time to make a squeeze move up for the bulls, with a final exhaustion move up Tuesday morning the 22nd. At that point (assuming we don’t make a higher high [double top is fine] and stay lower then 1897.08) I’d expect the start of a larger wave 3 down to start.
This implies that we completed an ABC move down today (since that high) to make a larger wave 1 down. Then the larger wave 2 up should be full of “hard too read” moves to shake out both bulls and bears before ending on the 22nd and therefore allowing for the larger wave 3 down to start.
The might not be in yet? http://screencast.com/t/SMEST4NHcg
Here’s what I see for Monday… http://screencast.com/t/fmRKudNu
QQQ Update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/qqq-weekend-update.html
APPLE Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/apple-weekend-update.html
Based on what I see in the charts we should bottom today in the 1800-1810 SPX area and have a choppy rally the rest of this week. I still think we should top on the 22nd but I don’t know how high they will take it? The charts don’t support a huge rally to just under a double top but you all know how they love to squeeze the bears, so never underestimate them.
Realistically I could see rally up to the 10 and 20 day moving average around 1860, which is about 61.8% Fibonacci level if we bottom around 1800… or maybe only 50% if we have already bottomed?
Either way “time wise” the market needs about a week to work off the short term oversold conditions… which again points to around the 22nd as the next high. the 1800 level is weekly support from 2011 (starting at 1074), so it a strong level that should produce a bounce.
The charts are aligning up nicely for a pretty decent rally tomorrow. But, the weekly is still rolling over and putting pressure on the market. So I don’t think we are going up to make a new higher high, but instead just rally some, fall back, rally again, fall back again, etc…
This being option expiration week we should expect them to rally so they don’t have to pay out all the “put holder”, which is typical of them to do. However, it’s still likely to continue with some wild swings like we are currently having.
Chartwise a 4 day rally into Friday to top seems likely. But ritual wise we should top next Tuesday the 22nd. Somewhere between those dates I do think they will put in the lower high we are expecting to make this wave 2 up. Then I’d expect a wave 3 down to start and to really get some downward momentum once the 1800 area is broken on a weekly close.
Hi Red,
Looks like the animal spirit is alive and well. If we close above resistance at 1866 will be on fire to see 1920 by next week or early next. Any thoughts?
I don’t know Scott? It doesn’t “feel” like it want’s to make a new high. It’s possible I guess as we all know how heavily manipulated they are to the bull side. But it really looks to me like we’ll make a lower high, and that it will happen on Tuesday.
There’s nothing saying for sure that they will use that day just because it’s one of many ritual days. But the charts certainly line up with a turn around the same period as well, so there’s really good odds of it happening.
Then there’s all the planet stuff aligning up too… which I’m not normally one to follow or factor into a call for a “turn” but Ali researched it and of course posted his thoughts around that time period as being negative as well.
And while I don’t go visit Raymond Merriman’s site hardly ever (been at least 2 years) I just was cleaning up some of the links here on the sidebar of the blog and removing dead sites. While doing so I checked his link (Under “Astrology Moon Cycles” section) and took the time to read his post.
Very interesting about this time period for sure… especially when we’ve only had 2 times in the last 100 years where the planets aligned up like they are now (grand cardinal square), which were in 1931 and 1933…
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-april-14,-2014/
Amazon trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/amazon-trend-analysis.html
A certain little component of a certain little indicator, Nasdaq version, hit the O line with yesterday’s action.
Meanwhile, NYSE version dropped below its 50 day average earlier in the week although it has since gone positive but still below the 50 day average.
I think the bears should remain emboldened as long as the Harry Dent Dow 17000 ad continues to appear over at DEs. This is contrast to the past 4 years when the Dent Dow 3000 ad continued to appear……The dude who made 40 million playing tech stocks back in 1999/2000 also seems to be a contrarian indicator. His ads seem to materialize when the market appears to be topping out.
Did some more indepth research on Gravity and unearthered a deeper Russian connection in the film (to the upcoming Grand Ritual).
Day of Infamy tomorrow, followed by the Week of Infamy plus the 144 year birthday of Lenin and possible occultic Pentecost.
New post… http://reddragonleo.com/2014/04/20/the-scary-planetary-alignment-due-on-april-21st-2014/
My take for the real short term is : Fridays rally didn’t end our somewhat crazy roller-coaster like current pullback this past week We had 2 big triple digit ‘up’days…but 2 triple digit ‘down days this week..yet closed NET down for the week.The Dow started the week off up almost a 150 pts higher than Fridays close….and the SPX started the week up almost 30 pts higher than Fridays close at 1982 from Last Mondays open at 2009…just a shade under the ATH close.More notable is Wednesday’s rally produced an SPX close at 1998. Yesterdays rally gave a much lower close for the week at 1982. I say this is trickier than just assuming because we got one of this weeks big rally days on Friday..that that puts and end to anymore downside here and move right back up to the highs here soon. I think we’ll dip back below this last weeks lows on all the key indexes. Thats 1966.22 by the way for the SPX. This is not some drama queen crash/ensuing P3 bear market observation…just saying I think we may be in a murky range for now. Current super bullishy types of course will not want to see us start closing much below that recent SPX August 7th low close of 1909.57. Lets just call it a higher than not probability we get a 100 pt SPX range here(2010-1910) for the short term…with a little higher probability we get under the mid point level of the range under this last weeks low SPX close of 1966(ish) on Thursday.
Anybody else here like SPX 1940 minimum this week ?
And I don’t edit posts ever to mitigate wrong calls and try to pathetically cover my ass for future reference,,even when I see the futz about to blow my prediction/opinion out of the water . So even if the futz are up 30 pts Sunday night/Monday morn..this post will be what it is.
I think it’s all about this weekly rising trendline of support (http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787;). When we have a close below that lower support line the market should start the 20% correction… possibly a 50% crash. No way to know for sure on the crash but the correction is coming soon I’m sure of.
1905 ought to be a piece of cake.
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPX&uf=7168&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=1013&freq=1&time=8&rand=798035619&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1
Yep..even Bernie Madoff would have been embarrassed by that crock of shit BS “screen shot” online acct statement. Now Madoff was the master of providing realistic phony account value statements and online account value updates to clients and prospective clients.His phony client online account updates are/were legendary. Client logs on and sees his or her account steadily rising in value complete with blinking lights and lots of profit “green”. – “Damn this Bernie is a brilliant money manager,our account just keeps getting bigger” – Some accounts we’re “showing to be up many millions of dollars in profit. Of course in truth..not only was there zero profits….the was also no principal left and no “real” account that ever existed. All customer accounts were very sophisticated on line illusions to “placate” investors. Easy Peazy these days with computer trickery. Thats how he got suckers to fork over $50 Billion bucks of Ponzi scheme dough . Madoff fooled and conned the best of the best there for about 30 years…..sealing his deals with with totally bogus realistic looking online account statements.