Friday, June 14, 2024

ES Morning Update February 24th 2016

ee638338-f61a-4766-bf40-628c95bbf358Futures shown 5 waves down in them from Monday's high and are resting at horizontal support

MACD's on this 60 minute are at -5 area and look like they want to turn up but the 6 hour, 4 hour and 2 hour are still pointing down

When I look at other time frame charts the odds are shifting more and more to the bears holding that Monday high and any move up today and/or Thursday only putting in a higher low, possibly hitting the falling trendline now connecting Monday's high to Tuesday's high... and it's coming in around 1928 area the futures right now.

There is horizontal support right at the 1900 level and it's an even number play... meaning it's one of those levels that mentally people are drawn too because it seems important.  Just like 2000 SPX, 2100, 1800, etc... or in the DOW it would be 16,000... 17,000... you get the picture.  From a technical point of view the next support area is around 1890 on the futures, then a retest of that falling channel that just below that 1890 but falling.

After a low is found this morning we could (and should) see it turn back up later in the day (or sooner?) to attempt one more breakout, which should fail from the looks of the charts and just put in a lower high that will also look like the right shoulder of a nice "head and shoulders" pattern with the head at Monday's high and the left shoulder at last Thursday's high.  It might end up looking a lot like the head and shoulders pattern that formed back on 2/1 (the head), 1/22 and 1/27 (two left shoulders) and 2/4 (double right shoulder).

If they fail to turn back up and continue lower today and into tomorrow then they could work off enough of the overbought conditions on the larger time frame and allow another turn back up next week to make another run attempt to breakthrough overhead resistance at the 1950 SPX horizontal line in the sand.   Right now I see those odds as low, but if it happened then that 1860 area for the gap fill on the futures would be about a 50% retrace and my target to be hit today/tomorrow if NO right shoulder.

The scenario I favor is the right shoulder to form today/tomorrow and then a big drop starting Friday and continuing into next week with that 1860 being busted and a move on down to make a triple bottom at the 1810 zone, which I think will break this go around.  But for now lets just say I'm looking for early selling and a midday to late day turn back up.

Author: Red

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