Friday, June 14, 2024

ES Morning Update May 2nd 2016

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Resistance on the upside is this falling trendline, which is dropping into the horizontal resistance zone around 2080-2085 it appears.

The MACD's got oversold Friday and now moving up on this 2 hour chart.  The 6 hour chart supports a move up too.

Today I'm some light volume as traders get back to work slowly, which is the case for most Monday's it seems.  There could be some early selling but today looks to be "float up" day where we don't rally hard but just kinda float up some.  I think we'll have an ABC up between today and tomorrow.  So after a possible early morning drop the float up "should" be the A wave up.  Then we should see a B wave down later in the day or Tuesday morning.  Finally the C wave should complete some time on Tuesday I think.  Maybe it makes it up to the falling trendline, which will be in the 2080 zone by then I think.

There's also a chance that the B down happens near the open and the C up starts around midday to complete by the close today or Tuesday morning.  I'm not sure exactly how they are going to play it out but I do expect some kind B wave down and then C wave up into Tuesday ideally.  So I'll be looking for another short Tuesday or when that C wave up looks complete.

However, there's another count that's possible.  The larger C wave down from last Thursday that started around 2093 with that early morning "shakeout rally" that hit the falling trendline of resistance and then rolled over into the close and Friday could still be in play?  If so, then today's rally up (and Friday's rally up at the close) is just a smaller wave 4 up inside that larger C wave down.  That suggests we'll have a 5th wave down to make a slightly lower low today.  Which wave it is correct is unknown presently, so I'm just planning on waiting for some ABC pattern to show up (and to hit some overhead resistance level) to get a better feel for the market.  Then I'd look to short again.

Red
Author: Red

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