ES Morning Update May 26th 2016

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Might have topped yesterday for the wave 3 up and now in some ABC pattern for the wave 4 down.  Support still at the 2080 area.

Overbought on all the time frames.  This 60 minute chart is trying to reset but it should only make a lower high on any move back up.

Looking at the charts today and adding in the fact that we are going into a 3 day holiday weekend, with Monday being closed for Memorial day, I say we'll just chop around between the 2080 support and the current high today and Friday.  I'm not sure if the wave 3 up topped yesterday or not but if we make another higher high today I think that will be it for that wave 3 up.  Then the wave 4 down will likely be some kind of ABC pattern I'd guess.  Whatever pattern it takes I don't see a lot of downside on it.  By the close Friday the new rising trendline that's at 2067 right now will probably be up around 2077, or just a hair under the 2080 horizontal support.  The wave 4 down might end there and put off the wave 5 up until next week.

If we don't make an higher high today then we are likely already in the wave 4 pullback.  Again, it might last until Friday I just don't see them allowing the market to tank in front of a holiday weekend.  Also, we know we haven't topped yet as the FP on Apple hasn't be hit... which might not hit until early next week if we pullback a little today and tomorrow.  Pay close attention to it as when it's hit I think the market will be topped.  So if that happens today then the small pullback in the ES Futures last night and the run back up this morning could be the wave 4 down and 5 up?  Seems pretty short in time for that to be the case but it's possible.  If that happens then we should be starting the next big down move tomorrow, but I still don't expect that 2080 area to break... maybe pierce it small, but nothing big on the downside in front of this weekend.

Also do note that we close at 2pm Friday instead of 4pm for the holiday.  And Janet Yellen speaks at 1:15pm, which "could" mean something?  I could see them announcing bad news right before the close, going into a 3 day weekend, so they can spin it as nothing over that long period with their propaganda media machine.  I still don't plan on shorting over this weekend but this could be something important that spells the top for the market this week and the start of the 12% correction next week.