ES Morning Update July 22nd 2016

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Yesterday we saw the bulls finally take a break and let the bears have a little fun... but will it last?  Looking at the charts this morning they are mixed which leads me to believe we'll rally back up some today to make a double top from yesterday or slightly lower high... pushing this out until next week, which has an FOMC meeting on Wednesday the 27th where we should see the real firework start.  Between today and then we should see the market kind of in limbo but with a downward bias.  Downside targets are 2124 and about 2100 on this futures chart.

Upside targets are pretty much unlimited... just look at all the other blog writers and you'll hear 2250, 2300, or 2500... take your pick.  Today though I don't expect much.  Just a move back up on light volume to close Friday out happy for the bulls.  Considering how overbought we are and going to another FOMC meeting next week (where traders aren't expecting any changes, but still err on the "cautious" side) we should do this move down to support going into the meeting next week I believe.  Then (assuming Janet Yellen doesn't say anything new) we should rally back after the meeting to make a lower high then yesterday.  After that the technical's in the chart should roll the market over where we'll see a deeper move.  Until then let's just see if we get the small pullback first.