Saturday, April 20, 2024

ES Morning Update December 15th 2016


Well, the Fed day is over with and rates will be raises as expected.  The futures have rolled over and now look to be in pullback mode for several days.  This 6 hour chart gives you a better picture then the normal 60 minute chart as it gives you a clearer look at the MACD's, which are pointing down nicely now.  There is also a nice bear flag showing up with the down move yesterday making the flag pole and the three sideways bars (each bar is 6 hours) making the flag.

It certainly looks to me like we'll be dropping for a few days at this point.  Possibly the 60 minute chart could turn back up and hold the price level in a tight range today, maybe even close green?  But it doesn't look like it has the power to make a new all time high today or even get to a double top.  The best the bears could hope for is a slightly green close to short into Friday for the breakdown of the bear flag.  This assumes it doesn't breakdown today of course as predicting the breakdown point is tough sometimes.

Support on the way down is right around 2200 for the strongest area.  Minor support around 2240 or so.  To me this looks like we'll see some kind of ABC move down for our pullback and then back up for the Santa rally to retest the highs again (and probably break them to hit the old 230 FP on the SPY, which again is about 2300 SPX).  But of course nothing is "for sure", so let's cross that bridge after the pullback is finished and the rally starts.  For now I'd look for slow and controlled pullback for a few days to get the charts oversold while keep the point loss on the price level to a minimum.

Author: Red

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