Tuesday, July 23, 2024

ES Morning Update November 1st 2017

Another new all time high this morning in the futures.  The MACD's here on this 2 hour chart are heading up toward the falling trendline where they should make a lower high while the market carves out its' higher high.  Just more negative divergence on various time frames.  How many will it setup before rolling over... don't know?  This market just keeps going up on super light volume and it's going to be hard to time the exact top.  In fact I doubt if anyone gets it spot on, but it's looking like it will be from all the bearishness setting up in the charts.  The mid-2600's have been many peoples' target for a long time and we are certainly very close right now.

But keep in mind that the Fed meeting is today and what is said from it could move the market in either direction fast.  Most of the time the Fed's don't want the blame for a move down in the market so they seem to always say the right thing on FOMC days and they close them up a good 80% or more of the time.  So odds favor a green close today but also remember that Janet Yellen is being replaced so she might just say whatever she wants and spook the market to... you never know with an angry woman!  LOL...  My thoughts for today are that any move up after the FOMC meeting will likely be an exhaustion move as the charts don't support any lasting rally right now.  Whether it ends at the close today or carries into Thurs/Fri is unknown but I don't see more then 1-2 days max on the upside with the way the charts are currently setup.

The DOW Transports are not supporting this rally as they have already rolled over and it seems like there is just a few big stocks keeping this market up with gaps higher on earnings reports.  Mostly the FAANG stocks and once these earnings are over with I just don't see how the market can keep from pulling back.  Today it's tough to call as I don't know what Janet is going to say.  It could rally the market more or force a down move... maybe no move at all?  So I'll just stick with the charts and look for the most likely point of exhaustion where I think the bulls will allow the bears some food to eat.  It should be soon with the way the charts look but I'm not sure if it's going to be today at the close or sometime tomorrow?  For now the bulls still have control... nothing new there.

Author: Red

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