ES Morning Update December 20th 2017

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850

Futures are up this morning but they still don't look to me like they plan on making another higher high like they have done so many times in the past.  This time they look like a B wave up with yesterdays' down move being the A wave down, which means a C wave down should follow.  I say that because of how similar the pattern right now looks to the December 4th-6th move.  It had an A wave down that dropped the MACD on this 60 minute chart down below the zero line where turns are common and didn't stop and hook back up until around -3.3 or so.  It then moved back up to around -0.7 before rolling over again to make a lower low. Yesterday when I thought the MACD would turn back up and setup a negative divergence above the zero line for both peaks it instead kept falling down to a low of -2.5 before turning back up.  Now this morning it has reached about +0.7 and acting like it want's to roll back over again.  This suggests this move down from yesterday will breakdown into an ABC pattern with the C down yet to come, just like the 12/2 to 12/4 move did.  I don't know what the bigger picture wave count is so I'm not saying that the top is in and we are headed down for a nice correction.  Yeah, it could be but I really would just focus on the day to day moves for now.

Anyway, for today I think this rally will fizzle out and rollover later in the day with only a higher low today being made.  Then tomorrow I think we'll be heading down to that 2670 area where the rising trendline of support is located at as well as horizontal support from trading in that range in mid-December for several days.  The 6 hour chart already got a bearish cross yesterday with the A wave down move and has fallen from a high around +9.6 on its' MACD to +6.1 right now.  The Histogram bars also went from positive black bars to red bars.  This again suggests the move down yesterday is no over with yet and that it will breakdown into an ABC pattern instead of just one wave like so many in the past.

On another note... it's been a hard road for the bears the last year but January could give them the much needed correction they have been waiting so long on... which if the bulls are smart they will let it happen so they can have another strong year like this one.  We are in a massive bull bubble but who's to know when it will end?  It could add another 50% or more like the 1986 rally into 1987 did when Reagan passed his tax cut bill back then.  I can't see that far ahead and I doubt if very many can, so I'll just leave my guesses for today and maybe a week or so out.  And I'm guessing we rollover later today and into Thursday/Friday for a low from the expected C wave down in this most likely ABC pattern from yesterday.