ES Morning Update February 15th 2018


Nice move up again this morning I see. It's now acting like a wave 3 to me, so if we can pullback small around the open for a wave 4 down, then back up into the close for a wave 5 up then we should complete all 5 waves inside this C wave up and end this rally. Now... with that said, I don't see a huge drop on Friday. It's likely to pin at some level that makes the most options expire worthless so the market makers can keep the most money. The max pain site says that at 273 on the SPY or around 2730 for the futures and SPX. What might happen is that we only do the wave 4 down today and push out that wave 5 up until tomorrow... which would still be fine I think with my current forecast on the market for next month.

Anyway, I'll keep today's post short and sweet. I'm looking for a wave 4 down at some point today, which should be smaller then the wave 2 down, and I think it was the move down from the 2/12 high of 2655.00 to the 2620.00 low on the same day. From there the wave 3 up started (still inside the larger C wave up) and subdivided into 5 smaller waves... which I think this move up from yesterdays' low to this morning's high was the 5th wave inside that wave 3 up. Anyway, I just want to see a small wave 4 down and 5 up today or tomorrow to end this larger C wave up from the 2530.25 low on 2/9. Next week we should start back down again if everything is still on track, but it should be choppy and not easy to figure out the direction each day. This is the period where it shakes out both bulls and bears. No new high should be put in next week as the high for this rally should be today or tomorrow... that's "if" this all plays out like I think it will?