ES Morning Update May 8th 2018

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Ok, yesterday looks to have ended the wave 3 up and this mornings' low could be the wave 4 down... leaving wave 5 up for sometime today, which should end this move up. Looking at the ES 60 minute chart the MACD's look ready to turn back up. But on the SPX 60 minute chart it's looking overbought. So we could have a weak 5th wave up as these charts try to align up together in one direction or the other. I think most traders are expecting more upside, to possibly 2700 where the rising red trendline of resistance is pointing to today, but I'm not sure about that happening today.

With mixed charts we might not go much of anywhere, up or down. I get the feeling we are about to end the up move and start another move down soon. I think today will be the last day before it starts this move. The unknown part is how high the 5th wave goes up today? Does it make a higher high then yesterday or truncate short? We seem to be in a rising channel now (as shown in blue), so we could drift down a little more early today to hit the lower rising trendline of that channel around where it intercepts with the green horizontal trendline and the falling light purple trendline... which is all around 2655 or so.

Of course if that support breaks then the move down is likely starting. But if it can bounce off of it then the next move up should be the 5th wave. It's a tough spot to call the top of this move as no one knows for sure if it's going to be a normal wave 5 up that takes out the high of the wave 3 or if it falls short. But if 2680 or is taking out with momentum then I'd look for 2700 next. If not, then I'd be thinking the 5th wave failed and truncated short. Other then that I don't see much else to add to today's update. Good luck.