ES Morning Update July 12th 2018

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Ok gang, this move up this morning looks to me like the smaller 5th wave inside the larger 3rd wave. Meaning that yesterdays' premarket drop was likely the smaller wave 4 down. So after this smaller wave 5 ends, which I think it will do so at some point today, we should see the larger wave 4 down happen. I suspect that... first, this smaller wave 5 up will truncate short of the recent high of 2797 that smaller wave 3 up hit, and second that larger wave 4 down take out the premarket low yesterday from smaller wave 4 by just a hair, not some huge drop.

Support is at the falling green trendline pointing to around 2760 today, and that's where I suspect we are heading to end larger wave 4 down. That leaves larger wave 5 up for Friday (again, this assumes small wave 5 up and and larger wave 4 down all happen today). So, I'm going to look to short at some point today as I think we are going to drop at some point today to retest the premarket lows from yesterday.

It could hold up all day and drop afterhours I guess but I really feel like the trickiest move is to drop sometime today and close near that falling green trendline. Then use the fuel you'll get from the bears shorting the bottom to squeeze them up tomorrow for larger wave 5... which I think will take out 2800 by a little and top out into the close on Friday. That setups up Monday for a gap down for the next drop, but I'll discuss that tomorrow.

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