The futures are down a little this morning but getting oversold on the 2 hour chart suggesting a bounce today of some degree. Looking at the SPY I see a possible FP of 283.15, which might be the upside high area for today's expected bounce. However, I don't think the bottom is in for this move down. The larger time frame charts (like the daily) are still overbought and they don't show any signs of turning back up yet. But bounces are part of every move down so this one shouldn't be any different. We did hit a mild support area in the 2825 zone, so that should hold for a bit I guess. Well, it looks like that FP is going to be hit as I write this morning update. I thought it would hit during the normal market hours but the market has turned back up strong right now and has come from being down around 11 points to flat now... almost green. Amazing. The FP has now been hit and surpassed. At this rate we'll have a green open.
Normally I try to write the morning update around 8:30-9:00 am EST and not much changes by then, but today I got up early and started writing around 7:30 am. Anyway, I don't think the downside is finished. Yes, we are going to have bounces along the way but I think the high was put in last week and that we will be going lower in the coming days before a strong rally up to new all time highs starts and takes up into the end of the year. I will add that this mornings low of 281.90 on the SPY will likely be revisited this week as well... possibly today, but not positive on that.
From a wave count this drop from the high last week is likely just an A wave or a wave 1, which means we are in a B wave up (or wave 2?). A larger drop tomorrow or Wednesday seems likely so I'm not getting to excited yet about the big long coming up. Again, I think we'll drop quite a bit lower before we start that strong rally up into the end of the year. This week and next week should be down and by the end of next week we should see a bottom to where that strong rally can start from. That's all I see for now. For more minute by minute action just drop by the chatroom. :=)
