Saturday, April 20, 2024

ES Morning Update September 10th 2018

Happy Monday to everyone. Looks like an exciting week is in front us now as the futures are up some and out of that falling channel. On the 6 hour chart the MACD's made a bullish cross so I expect this move up to last awhile. However, on this 60 minute chart we can clearly see it's overbought and acting like it wants to rollover. This is common I think as what we might see is a backtest of the upper trendline in the falling channel to make a wave 2 down of some degree while the breakout upside move is the wave 1. It would also make a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, so that too will aid in the next move up after the backtest.

However, don't put a lot of weight in an inverted head and shoulders pattern that is up near the highs as they work best when coming off an important low... which was ages ago. Never the less though the charts are aligning short term bullish. The daily and weekly though are still very overbought and ready to pullback anytime now. And the weekly and monthly now have negative divergence setting up. Those charts tell the big picture of course, which means an important all time top could (should) be put in before this year ends... one that could last 1-2 years or more. But that's thinking too far ahead so let's save that for another day.

For now I'll just be watching the pullback closely today to see if it sets up a nice wave 3 up into Tues/Wed that I might take a tiny long on. But make no mistake I'm expecting a super nice short here very soon where I'll load the boat up with SPY Puts... in the meantime though I will just look for some small quick in and quick out SPY Calls. If I take long it will be like trying to get the last penny in front of the steamroller that is about to turn around and go down another road just full of new coins. Who knows? I'll probably chicken out on the long and just wait for the short... LOL. Anyway, time for some coffee so I'll end this update here.

Author: Red

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