Monday, April 15, 2024

ES Morning Update September 19th 2018

The futures look weak today so I would not expect the breakout to happen by the close but instead I think it needs more time to setup... possibly a week or so? I remember the FP on the VIX of 10.91 and how we got close to that low and fooled me into think that was as close as was going to get. It hit 11.07 on 8/3 and then went back up a little for a day or so... which I started to wonder if that was all it was going to get down to.

But by 8/9 it finally dropped again to hit the FP and pierce it with a final low of 10.17... which is what I think is going to happen to the SPY FP as well... a pierce higher by a point or less. There's a gap on the DOW from January 29th at 26,435.34 which would be about 2946.58 on the SPX, and that's about 294.65 on the SPY... which is just under a point higher then the 293.90 FP level. That's about as picture perfect as it gets should this happen, and it should happen in my opinion as the market rarely leaves gaps unfilled... especially when it gets so close to one.

Anyway, I'll keep today's post short. We know our upside target and the expected date for it to hit on September 18th has passed now... so we just wait until it hit, which should be within a week or so I think. As I just don't see it holding on into October. One more thing, yesterday generated the 13th Hindenburg Omen (HO), and while it's common for them to not work out and the market to just continue chugging along just fine there's not been any crash happen that I'm aware of where an HO (several probably) didn't appear in advance.

So while I'm not saying we are going to crash I am saying that the warning signs are all there. I do not have any FP's showing some crash low. All I have on the downside for FP's is a 5.28% drop and a 6.81% drop, so one of them will come true. After that I'd expect a rally... but if said rally fails to make a new ATH then it "could" just be a large B wave up of some degree with the A down being the 5-6% drop. And that leaves the door wide open for a C wave down... aka "Crash Wave" (at least in this degree it would be). That's all for today... you have the road map.

Author: Red

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