ES Morning Update September 26th 2018

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Today we'll look as the SPY chart for clues, which too me suggest a pop higher is coming at some point soon. When you ask? Most likely after the FOMC meeting today. The rising red trendline has provided support since it started on 8/15, and it's just around 290 from looks of it right now. In the old days there was a lot of fast "shakeout" swings up and down minutes after an FOMC meeting but the last year or so they seem to be a non-event. So I'm not sure if this is going to be another dull one or a wild one, but I do think that by the end of the day we'll be up some.

I'm not expecting something big on the upside as the old FP from 2/27 was hit last week and has been holding so far. Assuming it still holds then any rally should be contained under the prior high. From a wave count it looks like the first drop was some kind of small A wave and we've been going sideways for the smaller B wave. Maybe a quick drop below the rising red trendline of support to make the smaller C down ends? If so I'd call the whole smaller ABC down a larger A wave.

We then should have a larger B up into Thursday for that possible double top. If that works out (again, guessing here) we'd likely start the first wave 1 down (of 5) for the larger C wave around Friday. I'm still looking for a decent pullback into the middle of October. My target area is around 279 on the SPY, but if it's weak drop then the 2850-2860 SPX area is a logical support area. Anyway, that's keeping is short and simple for today. Good luck.

P.S. My site was down early yesterday due to computer bots attacking it and overloading the server.  It happens a couple times a year it seems.