ES Morning Update October 11th 2018

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WOW! When I said yesterday the bulls were running out of time I had no idea we'd fall off a cliff. Yeah, I was expecting this move down but I honestly thought we'd have one or two more days of chop to slightly up. But it is what it is as the market was clearly weaker then most expected. Afterhours yesterday we saw more selling but this morning the futures are looking to open about flat. I'm kinda expecting some kind of bounce here today as we hit the 5.28% FP I have (on my FP's page), which pointed to 2785.62... and the actually low of the SPX was 2784.86, and that's about as close as it's gets for a FP hit.

But there was a different FP showing 6.81% down, and I'm not sure if it's next or when? I need to just watch the market today to get a better feel for what's coming next as it drops so far in one day that's technicals aren't something you can trust to work. But I'd look at it this way... a weak green close with mostly sideways action today will likely lead to another drop tomorrow or Monday.

A strong rally up should lead to several days of wild swings up and down and drag out any next large move down, or eliminate it (meaning the low is in for the year). Personally I do think there's more down to come as this does NOT look or feel like the Flash Crash on 08/24/2015 that bottomed that day and rallied up hard for a long time afterwards. This looks and feels like a crash setting up. And that suggests there'll be another larger drop day then today coming soon... like maybe next week? I'm just throwing out possibilities right now as nothing is guaranteed. That's all I have for today. Best of luck to you.

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