ES Morning Update July 30th 2019

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Nice move down this morning. But, there's a possible FP on the SPY at 8:11am showing a high of 301.46, so if that's real then I'd expect to see this drop get reversed at some point this morning, or tomorrow at the latest. This is playing out similar to what I thought it would do when last Friday I said that there's usually a slow drift down in front of most FOMC meetings due to fear of the unknown. I would have like to seen more weakness on Monday but it looks like they just decided to do it all today.

Last Friday there was a downside possible FP of 300.00 at 8:14 am, which has been hit this morning in the premarket session, so I guess it was a real one after-all. Will this new possible FP get hit today or tomorrow is the question? I suspect it will do so today, but only time will tell. This coming FOMC meeting is still looking like a "buy the rumor", "sell the news" event. Regardless of what the Fed's say or do it's already "baked-in", so after it passes I'd expect a move down of some degree to start.

There's just too many people long here and while I still think we are NOT topped out for the year as I'm looking for higher prices still to come, there's a much needed pullback here that should start soon before the next big run up. Bottom line here... some sell setups are forming and a possible for 1-2 days after the FOMC, so keep your bear money in a safe place as soon you might get the chance to use it. Have a Terrific Tuesday.