ES Morning Update August 13th 2019


Pretty deep down day yesterday but the moves these recent days seem to be large every day. I'm still not looking for a breakdown of the 8/5 recent low, or a breakout to new all time highs anytime this week. Next week though is a different story. Most other are looking for top of some kind early next week to take a short at for a move down to test that 8/5 low but so far that rally up has yet to start.

I'm still 50/50 on whether we make a new all time high on the coming rally or just a lower high. And while there's no guarantee that we'll even get the rally (we could have already seen the bounce high?) I don't see a high odds trade right now to play on either side. I'm not much of a day trader as you know. I prefer to wait until I get a trend move that will last for several days to even weeks.

So I miss a lot of moves... and I missed the drop yesterday. Friday just didn't show its' hand to me on where the market was going on Monday. But that's life in this tough world of trading. I could take more risks but I've found that when I have in the pass I seem to have a knack for shorting the bottom or buying the top... LOL.

Anyway, I (again) don't see much for today. There's no clear direction to me. It looks more bearish then bullish but it's also getting short term oversold and can turn back up at anytime. I felt the same way yesterday but the turn back up never came, which was why I never went long either as "feeling" one way isn't a good recipe for trading. I wait until I get more evidence that gives me a clean signal to go long or short. I'd take either trade, up or down.

I'm a bear at heart but money is money and if I get a strong buy signal in the next few days then I'll go long without hesitation. I suspect we are near one but it's not formed yet. Positive divergence needs to form and I'd like to see some kind of wave 1 up and wave 2 down that holds above the start of the wave 1 up... aka, a higher low or double bottom. I'm thinking we could see something setup by this Thursday or Friday but until it does I'm on the sidelines waiting for a strong opportunity. Have a great day and be sure to watch Oscar's video here as he covers the long term picture.