Friday, July 19, 2024

ES Morning Update August 13th 2019

Pretty deep down day yesterday but the moves these recent days seem to be large every day. I'm still not looking for a breakdown of the 8/5 recent low, or a breakout to new all time highs anytime this week. Next week though is a different story. Most other are looking for top of some kind early next week to take a short at for a move down to test that 8/5 low but so far that rally up has yet to start.

I'm still 50/50 on whether we make a new all time high on the coming rally or just a lower high. And while there's no guarantee that we'll even get the rally (we could have already seen the bounce high?) I don't see a high odds trade right now to play on either side. I'm not much of a day trader as you know. I prefer to wait until I get a trend move that will last for several days to even weeks.

So I miss a lot of moves... and I missed the drop yesterday. Friday just didn't show its' hand to me on where the market was going on Monday. But that's life in this tough world of trading. I could take more risks but I've found that when I have in the pass I seem to have a knack for shorting the bottom or buying the top... LOL.

Anyway, I (again) don't see much for today. There's no clear direction to me. It looks more bearish then bullish but it's also getting short term oversold and can turn back up at anytime. I felt the same way yesterday but the turn back up never came, which was why I never went long either as "feeling" one way isn't a good recipe for trading. I wait until I get more evidence that gives me a clean signal to go long or short. I'd take either trade, up or down.

I'm a bear at heart but money is money and if I get a strong buy signal in the next few days then I'll go long without hesitation. I suspect we are near one but it's not formed yet. Positive divergence needs to form and I'd like to see some kind of wave 1 up and wave 2 down that holds above the start of the wave 1 up... aka, a higher low or double bottom. I'm thinking we could see something setup by this Thursday or Friday but until it does I'm on the sidelines waiting for a strong opportunity. Have a great day and be sure to watch Oscar's video here as he covers the long term picture.

Author: Red

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