ES Morning Update November 11th 2019

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The futures are down some this morning and appear to be out of the rising wedge by just a hair, but one could argue that it's still inside the wedge as well. So I wouldn't make too much out of it right now but will be keeping a close eye on it to see what it does today.

It's not a holiday for the stock market but it is Veterans Day, so light volume should be expected. Not that we haven't already had light volume these past few weeks but it might be even lighter today due to the holiday. The market is ripe for a pullback here but timing it out perfectly isn't easy. I'd like to see it turn back up today and close green with a slightly higher high, which if that happened I'd likely short the close. But if they close red today and stay weak all day as well then my thoughts will be that the bulls are just resting and resetting very overbought short term charts today so they can attempt another move higher tomorrow or Wednesday.

It's a tough call for sure as just when you think you've seen the last thrust higher there's one more left. My thoughts are that they (the bulls) will have to exhaust themselves before any nice pullback can happen. This tiny pullback today is the bulls resting instead, and that's not what I wanted to see this morning. I was really looking for a gap up of 10+ points and continued slow grind all day into the close. I would have shorted it then, but now I'm not so sure?

When the bulls take a break it's always bad for the bears, as then the bulls stretch it out longer and take it higher then the bears can handle... which of course results in a lot of them getting squeezed out of their short right before the drop starts. This is SkyNet as its best! If I do decide to take a short I'll post it in the free chatroom of course. But right now I'm not liking the open. I really wanted to see a nice green close with (preferably) a new all time high again... at least on the DOW. Therefore at this point in time I can't tell you anything about the next move.

But for this week there's some pretty good odds that we'll get the pullback started. Again, I'm looking looking for 3000-3020 on so on the SPX and about 27,000 or so on the DOW. Possibly it hit by this Friday? Or it gets pushed out into next week? Again, too early to get a better feel for it. I just know there's very good odds of it happening soon. Happy Veterans Day.

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