Tuesday, June 25, 2024

ES Morning Update April 5th 2024

I'm finally back online after having a tornado come through my area Monday the 1st, which isn't an April Fools joke. It was fast and short lived, about 30 seconds I'd guess. Not something that should ever happen in Ohio with all the hills I have around me. I didn't get any damage to my home but the local volunteer fire department got hit hard. Many other buildings were too, as well as signs down, and of course trees. Power lines went down as some pole were snapped in half. The power company managed to get it back on yesterday morning thank goodness.

As for the market, we had a nasty drop after 2pm when the Fed's talked talking about not lower rates. The market was rallying up nicely in front it, but it came shy of hitting a new high and then "bam" down it went. Oddly I got another FP on the QQQ that told us the target. Here it is...

Now I did not think that we would go straight down to the lower one that fast but the market just caved and dropped all the way into the close yesterday and hit that downside FP... truly amazing! It was a very nice ABC move down from the current all time high, and it's keeping my FET of 5334 intact so far as well.

That's really what I expected as it's such a large one. That level is calculated from the October 2022 low to the July 2023 high, so it's a strong one and should produce a 5-10% correction in the coming weeks. Short term though we will likely go back up again today, and possibly into Monday... which is the Solar Eclipse is case you forgot. And it looks like they are giving everyone the upside target again with other FP that came out after the close yesterday.

The new FP on the QQQ is at 444.17, and another lower high, which tells me that we've likely topped out and the 5333.50 high is the top. From here going forward we should start going down. That's of course after we rally back up to the new FP, which might happen today from the Non-Farm Payroll Report before the open?

I don't know for certain that the new FP will be hit, but all the others have, so this one should too. My lean is to see it hit on Monday, but I won't rule out that we could get 90% of it done into the close today and the rest is just a gentle float higher Monday to make sure there's no bears left before the next leg down starts. Have a great weekend and get ready for some more wild swings next week as I think the much wanted 5-10% correction is finally starting.

Have a blessed day.

Red
Author: Red

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