A pause day yesterday as we wait on the CPI tomorrow before the open. We also have the PPI this morning and Powell speaking today as well. I don't expect much from those events but the CPI should cause a move in the market.
I don't know if it's going to cause a run of the stops overhead or not, as it might run them... or just might not and instead start the correction I'm looking for. Many CPI days have some stop run happen and then a reversal but it's not something that can be foreseen in advance. It's truly a flip of a coin, a "roll the dice", a guess basically. I'm looking for a short sooner, but I'm not sure if I'm going to wait until after the CPI number or before it.
I don't expect any straight down move to happen, as even if it rolls over after the CPI and doesn't run the stops there should still be some bounces to get short at. But since this should be a Large Wave C down those bounces might not be a strong as the early ones that followed the start of the Large A Wave down from the all time high.
And at this point most traders are only looking for a higher low, so we might not see a good bounce until we pullback to about the 50% level of the rally up... basically around the 5000-5050 zone. That's all I have.
Have a blessed day.
Now it appears more evident why they put the CPI release after the PPI. It would take a few days for me to get a sell signal so I think they’re will be bounces after a decline. These sells worked in late April and in 2011. It looks like any decline would stretch into June now.
Transports were down today and JNK has made a lower high from last week.
We’ll likely swing a 100 points up and down after it, but I’m thinking that the best way to trick the most is to go down first and retrace all the down move (or 90%+ of it) by the close tomorrow. This will have everyone shorting the CPI shaken out and throwing in the towel on any real correction. But then on Thursday we tank for real after the jobs number, which most aren’t really paying much attention too. I don’t know if it happens like this or not but it sure would fool a lot of traders.