Wednesday, June 12, 2024

ES Morning Update May 23rd 2024

Well, the pullback came before Nvida came out and then they used it to erase the pullback completely and rally back up to make another new all time high. We have the jobs number out this morning and that's the last chance for the bears it seems as it's looking quite ready to breakout to the upside now.

The only resistance is the overhead green rising trendline and white one. If bulls get through it (almost toughing it now) then I'd expect to see 5450+ pretty quickly. Bear must hold that line and take it lower today or tomorrow to get the weekly closing candle to put in a topping tail and roll the MACD's over.

I don't see another week under this overhead resistance as bulls are super close now to breaking out. Only a hard drop into the close on Friday to stop the weekly chart from turning bullish will save the bears. Will it happen? I just don't know? It's impossible to call the next direction from a week plus sideways move.

Bulls are very strong now and bears are super weak.  Odds are in the bulls favor of breaking out but don't forget the common pattern of "turns" happening over a 3 day holiday weekend.  We are close Monday for Memorial day, so bulls need to bust through the rising green trendline this week, like today ideally.  Then backtext it tomorrow and make it support.  If they can do that then they could grind higher next week.  But if they fail then they risk the bears making an attack next week.  So this overhead resistance is truly the goal line for the bulls, and I think this week is their 4th down.  If the bears hold it then they should take the ball next week.

The rising green trendline (5380) is the big resistance from the 2020 high, connecting to the 2022 high.  The rising white one only connects the recent highs in March, and it around 5415 this morning.  That's the zone basically that the bears need to hold.

So, everything is in the bulls hands right now as they are at the goal line.  Just a little more and they can rally to 5500 or more next week.  The close this week is super important as it will decide the fate for next week.  The weekly chart currently is turning bullish on its MACD's but it could also fail and rollover if the bulls don't score a touchdown here by getting through the overhead resistance this week.

Who will win?  I wish I knew but I don't.  I never saw this rally being so strong.  I was completely wrong on it, so I'm just watching to see what happens.

Have a blessed day.

Red
Author: Red

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geccko 23
geccko 23
20 days ago

Well that looks like the reversal. We got the RSI and MACD histogram divergence at the high today for the SP 500.

Today was the Flower Moon and I did mention that it was Killers of the Flower Moon day on Monday and for the week in the post that wouldn’t go through last week..Tomorrow is the another Killers of the Flower Moon day. The 24th of the month has been a key cycle date going back to 2015. It even worked twice in 2020, accelerating down on Feb 24, and bottoming March 2024.

It is 222 weeks from the Feb 19,2020 high and 8 weeks from the late March high.

I don’t have sell signals yet. It will take a few days for one so there could be another sharp bounceback in the next few days. The 2015 market is another one that I’m following and it peaked around this time of May. (Probably ahead of Memorial Day as well)

Also another thing that I mentioned (that wouldn’t go through)was that it had been a full Venus cycle since the October 13, 2022 bottom. Then it was 581 days. Today it is 588 days, a nice special number in the year of the 8.

geccko 23
geccko 23
20 days ago
Reply to  geccko 23

The market topped out around May 21st 2015 and then broke down hard on the Tuesday after Memorial Day, the 26th. Today would be a good break down though.

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