Saturday, July 13, 2024

ES Morning Update June 20th 2024

Almost at the FET of 5618 now as the bulls continue to grind higher inch by inch. I could say it's overbought until I'm blue in the face but that doesn't seem to matter when the bulls have a target that they want to hit, and with tomorrow being OPEX it wouldn't shock me to see it hit into the close Friday. I posted a wave count on 6/6 showing what I think is most likely, and below is that chart again.

As you can see the pullback would be deeper then the 5/31 low but higher then the 4/19 low. The part I got wrong on it was thinking that S1 would end at the rising green (or white) trendline and start S2 from there. Instead we seem to be headed start up to the FET at 5618.39 first, which should then end S1 and allow S2 to start. It tells me now that the wave count is probably wrong and needs adjusted as S1 seems too long to be right. So on 6/11 I did an alternative wave count, which is below.

On it I still point to the rising green (or white) trendline as the end of the move before the pullback, so that was wrong, but the wave count could still be accurate. If we reach the FET on this rally then we could be completing M5 inside L3, but the 5 waves inside the move would need relabeled as again, S5 seems too long in length compared to S3. Guessing the wave count is really hard and I have to continue to adjust, but the important thing here is that we are very likely going to hit the FET at 5618 this week and from there I expect a pullback into next week, which really the most important thing to get right for trading.

Have a blessed day.

Author: Red

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