The Bears Finally Feast!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClZxbHCIChU)
While tomorrow and possibly Thursday could bounce back up some, the move down we've all been looking for is finally here I believe.
Red
_____________________________________________________
President's Day Update - Market Tanks... It's Starting!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6CGNtyzIPM)
While I don't think this is the final top, I do believe we are now starting the "topping process", which means that I expect it to have a lot of wild swings in the next 2 weeks before finally tanking really hard. Â Just be prepared for some volatility!
Red
_____________________________________________________
When Will The Bulls Battery Ever  Die?
I wish I knew the answer! Â Every time it looks like it's ready to run out of juice, it some how manages to go up just a little further. Â All that POMO money is managing to keep the market up for now, as long as the big institutions don't decide to hit the panic button.
And since the big boys have a direct line to Bernanke, it's unlikely they will sell until they get the "go ahead" message. Â For us sheep though, we want to know when that is... so we can get short ahead of them! Â However, only the insiders are given that information, so we'll just have to keep on guessing for now.
Looking at the charts it seems that the bulls could continue this move up some next week too, as 15 and 30 minute charts look ready to pop up on Tuesday morning. Â However, the 60 seems to be losing it's "mojo", and wants to roll over to the down side. Â That should indicate that any move up on Tuesday shouldn't last too long.
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plwim4AfJo0)
Of course that's what the charts say, and of course they don't seem to be working lately (duh, when did they ever work? Â Probably before the March, 2009 low I'd guess). Â We really need to see that "blow off top" as until that happens, I just can't see them letting this market sell off any.
Just like a "capitulation" move happens on the downside, putting in a nice bottoming tail (look at 02-05-2010), we should see the same thing on the upside. Â However, a top usually will form over a few days until all the dip buys are gone, while a bottom can be a one day event.
Meaning... when we get that topping tail candle, you should expect a powerful wave 2 back up after the first wave 1 selling is over. Â Once those dip buyers realize that they can't break the top put in on the capitulation move up, they will sell and the real move down will begin.
It should look similar to late April top which had 2 big down days for wave 1, followed by 2 up days for wave 2... then one more fake out down/up move, and finally wave 3 down to the flash crash low of 1065. Â While it won't likely take the same pattern, it should look a little like that time period.
This means that if you are tired of chasing the final top in this P2 move up, you could simply wait for the first leg down to happen and the move back up for wave 2 to be over with... then get short. Â Of course you would miss a nice profit from the wave 1 down, but if you've lost your butt chasing the top, then maybe it's worth it?
While I "think" we could start the selling next week, I really have NO idea? Â They could keep pushing this up into March or later, as the POMO money is still being put into the market and the big boys aren't selling right now. Â Until they are told that it's "OK" to start selling, the little guys aren't likely to win the battle to get this market to correct back down.
So, with light volume expected to continue... especially since next week is a shortened one with Monday being a holiday, I'm not expecting too much to happen. Â Unless they have another False Flag event, I'm expecting some controlled sell offs to reset the charts for a more upside. Â How much... I don't know?
Sorry gang, but the chart are worthless in this controlled market. Â Remember what happened after the last Legatus Pilgrimage in September? Â The market failed to turn down and instead continued on up to the current high. Â Obviously, they injected more money into the market.
Well, we just had a more recent Pilgrimage this month on the 3rd to the 5th. Â Once again, the market has continued higher after the meeting. Â This tells me that there is still more upside to come. Â So, I'm not going to be shorting anything but quick one day moves (if we get those?) as the big move we are all looking for isn't likely to happen next week, or even the week after that.
I do see them continuing to stretch this out further, with more pain for the bears. Â Could be March or even April before "the big one" starts down. Â I'm just not believing this manipulation, but that's what they want us to do... so we'll go broke chasing a top.
There is no signs of this thing stopping right now, as long as they big institutions don't sell (and they won't until Bernanke tells them they can), and the POMO money keeps coming... this market will continue to inch its' way up day after day with only small pullbacks (that will be very controlled).
So again, unless some surprise event (yeah... right! Â surprise to us sheep only, as the wolves planned it) happens next week, it's business as usual... meaning, "screw the bears" and "lead more bulls to the slaughter house". Â Just play it safe everyone, as chasing this bull is going to break you if you don't take a breather and still out from time to time.
I plan to sit out most of the time and dip in the short water only for quick moves, hoping that they will actually play out? Â I refuse to go long at these levels but I respect those brave enough to do so. Â Riding the bull takes guts, as he can throw you at anytime. Â I'll wait until he takes a short rest and steal a bit to eat from him.
The bottom line is... "I simply don't know". Â I'm losing all faith in the bearish cause, so an exit to the sidelines (for me) is the safer play. Â I refuse to go long and chase this bull on his last run, but I won't bother with trying to pick the spot he will stop. Â So, it's do or die time for the bears next week. Â We had our full moon turn date and Gann turn date over the weekend. Â If we don't start a serious sell off next, it's not likely to happen until March or April.
Good luck gang,
Red
If past history was all there was to the game,
the richest people would be librarians.
Warren Buffett
Stock prices behave this way as well. I can spot past signals, that worked, avoid those signals, and try to find a signal, that looks fresh, hasn’t been used in awhile.
i’m always asking myself, “am i looking at this stock’s price history, or am i formulating it’s new price channel. there’s a subtle difference between these two.
if i’m looking at its price history, which is an easy mistake to do, i scrap whatever work i did, and start all over.
sometimes the history, matches up with the fundamentals, then i go with the history.
this tgt chart is a good example. history says 51.17 last low ( history) should hold. fundamentals / reality say, go long now, or at 50.7. use a 50.2 stop loss. or if under 50.2 ( feb pullback) just wait for the 52.5-53 exit. i prefer using the 3% stop loss. move to the next trade.
Short the Euro and GBP (aka Fiber and Cable), see charts for strong resistance.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
if the pound tanks, will the dollar move higher? that’s good for bears in most cases, right?
Who is interested in the dollar? Is a better question.
3.7 Trillion budget for 2012 is a joke.
I’m convinced our leaders want this country to fail. All they are buying with printing money is time.
something in germany, bad elections outcome —that might tank the german mark, aka fxe, right?
i’m still finding some solid companies with solid fundamentals to go long on. it’s when i run out of these finds, that’s when something is usually going to happen. it can still happen, despite the finds, dow futures down 22
Nice clientele…Hillary Duff, Jessica Alba.
Yeah I think the only thing that will cause a correction is something that we might be seeing now, which is a lack of equities for the bots to churn. I wouldn’t be surprised to have a small correction, before continuing up thru the end of POMO. The past 2 Fridays, the big boys have been selling big S&Ps. I guess we’ll see. Just a correction big enough to let off a little overbought pressure.
Fed dictator Bernanke needs to be toppled:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-dictator-bernanke-needs-to-be-toppled-2011-02-15
Interesting how the US govt is supposedly pro-Democracy, but allows one single person to have total and complete control over the financial system, and answers to absolutely no one.
We all know how that will turn out long term… our government has absolutely no foresight at all.
hung by his ___ if you ask me He’s a criminal
Hi Red, traders remember my bullish call on crude and gold on Friday 🙂
http://hotoptionbabe.com/blog/102-springtime-house-cleaning-crude-apple-gold.html
The market isn’t looking pretty right now…
true, but you know it’ll be up 150 points in the morning when apple announces its new remote control condom.
true, but you know it’ll be up 150 points in the morning when apple announces its new remote control condom.
Maybe? Hard too say right now what will happen on Tuesday?
i agree red,
the futures are lookin like jone rivers face – a REAL butt a$$ ugly mess! big question on tap – will the ppt/bernake duel force allow it to continue come morning??? we will wait and see.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we open down, sell off most the day and rally back in some short squeeze Wednesday or Thursday, closing the week out flat or so. One thing is certain, it won’t go straight down with bears onboard!
Hey Red,
It seems like there will never be a down anymore, just up, up, up, buy the f-ing dip:) like in that cartoon!
Since August, I have lost so much with my shorts, my profit and my premium… than I tried again this year to dip my toes, and lost again, so I am out completely. I am only in silver right now, physical and SLW and this is the only thing good to me right now! Today silver touched $34! and it has caught my attention since it was $18, but started small position at $18, and just now recent more agressive.
Stock market is only trouble, I tell you….
I prefer to open a chinese account in RMB,( I read in newspaper they have one branch in NY and one in LA and you can put up to $4000/day) and I will be better off than playing the stock market LOL
LOL… I was just talking to Anna on the phone about the same thing! I too have lost money shorting this POS rigged market and I’m thinking about the same thing… just buy silver and sit on it for the next several years!
dziemer emailed me this… (thank’s)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lwkpr8D-Fjc&feature=relmfu
Silver should be worth thousands of dollars per ounce, if not at least hundreds according to this video. Regardless of what level you think silver will go to… it’s GUARANTEED TO GO UP!
So, why not forget about trying to pick the top of this market and just buy silver and wait. Good fortune will come to those that have patience…
🙂
I belive very much in silver at this point, I have very good links regarding silver on my blog, if you ever have time. Adrian Douglas is a guy who finished Cambridge University and he has a lot of videos on Youtube, I have those links, and not only him, I caught a link from Seeking Alpha how JP Morgan is lowering their shorts on silver, which means they know something is up, and much more, I really was into it you will see….
What about “good links” for sources to buy it… in physical form?
D this is a great company from what i have heard over the years
http://www.monex.com/why/silver_market.html?gclid=CK2X1LLqmacCFdNl7AodrTkfeQ
Local, and use CASH only!
LOL… I was just talking to Anna on the phone about the same thing! I too have lost money shorting this POS rigged market and I’m thinking about the same thing… just buy silver and sit on it for the next several years!
dziemer emailed me this… (thank’s)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lwkpr8D-Fjc&feature=relmfu
Silver should be worth thousands of dollars per ounce, if not at least hundreds according to this video. Regardless of what level you think silver will go to… it’s GUARANTEED TO GO UP!
So, why not forget about trying to pick the top of this market and just buy silver and wait. Good fortune will come to those that have patience…
🙂
nope and i love it!
nope and i love it!
yeah who knows. maybe if we get a confirmation of those reversal candles on the nasdaq and rut daily charts then possible we go down and test support. bought tza at end of friday so……should have held onto my sco,oil.
Well, it was always expected that the gangsters would tank the market over a 3 day weekend when no one could trade, or had short positions.
Not everyone Red. I am well positioned for tomorrows pullback. Weak seasonals for tomorrow manifesting itself……….
Not everyone Red. I am well positioned for tomorrows pullback. Weak seasonals for tomorrow manifesting itself……….
How many days down are you expecting Robert? The usual “one day wonder” or do you see this as the start of some serious selling?
You got me Red. Would love to see a pullback to at least 50dma but I’m sure Pomo will keep downside limited. They could tank it tomorrow and window dress after that. There seems to be too much risk out there. The market does not like uncertainty so we may corrrect for awhile.
red,
early reports looks like libya has fallen… and gaddafi has fled with the gold….. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/british-foreign-minister-reports-gaddafi-way-venezuela-libyan-gold-presumably-tow
red,
early reports looks like libya has fallen… and gaddafi has fled with the gold….. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/british-foreign-minister-reports-gaddafi-way-venezuela-libyan-gold-presumably-tow
IWM Weekly chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/iwm-weekly-chart-analysis.html
IWM Weekly chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/iwm-weekly-chart-analysis.html
Headline Risk has arrived right on time…..
yes it has 🙂
Fill up your gas tanks /rb (gas futs) are up .70 so add that to the price you have now
my price 3.77$ a gallon this week
40 dollar strike on USO is lookin tasty. Although tastier on friday : – )
think it see’s 40 plus tomorrow 🙂
40 dollar strike on USO is lookin tasty. Although tastier on friday : – )
triple tops, not a very reliable signal. up in flames, my uga puts.
awesome banner Red thank now that i am on my own I can reduce the sub rates 🙂
BTW Europe down bigtime
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-21/european-index-futures-little-changed-carlsberg-may-decline-ubs-may-gain.html
Do you believe Anna, that this next week will end up being a BUYING opportunity. Or are you in the camp that believes we are in for a major correction that will last 1-2 months? So far, if this is all on Mid-East unrest, it should be a buying opportunity.
Do you believe Anna, that this next week will end up being a BUYING opportunity. Or are you in the camp that believes we are in for a major correction that will last 1-2 months? So far, if this is all on Mid-East unrest, it should be a buying opportunity.
Hi P2,
hard to tell this early as markets constantly change, breathe, move however with Crude continuing to rise above 100$ that will be a huge crimp in the global recovery, so I am looking for a major correction @ this point 🙂
wow, dow futures are terrible. -77, looks like the market returned to down on every tuesdays. cycle
only a start Z 😉
down triple digits—cool
Says -1.25 (-0.05%) to me. Looks like it won’t be as bad as you thought after all.
dow futures, looks like the market is gonna open up gapped down -103
i’ve always been told, don’t go long on gap downs.
wow, dow futures are terrible. -77, looks like the market returned to down on every tuesdays. cycle
Will 2/22/11 be another date that goes down in history? For all you numerologists, does this number have any significance?
1349 Jews are expelled from Zurich Switzerland
1941 German assault on El Agheila Libya
1941 Nazi SS begin rounding up Jews of Amsterdam
1945 Arab League froms (Cairo)
1948 Arabs bomb attack in Jerusalem, 50 die
1958 Egypt and Syria form United Arab Republic (UAR)
from http://www.brainyhistory.com/days/february_22.html
-GG
Two : 2 – Biblical Meaning of Number: deals with separation, things that are divided, or things that bring about division.
Twenty Two : 22 – Biblical Numerology Meaning: deals with the disorganization of things to a great degree, corruption and disintegration are magnified as well
Eleven : 11 – Biblical Numerology Meaning: deals with the things of imperfection, disorganization of systems, and the disorder or chaos of things.
from: http://www.christian-resources-today.com/biblical-meaning-of-numbers.html
german dax stocks—some hammered by up to 3%—this is going to hurt the us open.
look for 12,200 intraday support. this could be a bloodbath.
Ah, bloodbath…
I may need to change my Exterminator avatar to “Exterminator Red”…
here’s how you get market open on tuesday
fri close 12391, futures 12291, or -100
this is a for real gap down, and some of your longs are going to take a 3% hit. take the frikkin stop out, live to trade another day.
Silver and Gold heating up like a Wildfire.
I am considering trading my remaining physical gold for physical silver.
Correction coming or just a 1 day sell off like when the Egypt shtf.
couple day of tensions.
I don’t like debka, but if half of this is true. pucker.
http://www.debka.com/article/20692/
I don’t think there will be a dull moment from now until the Apocalypse.
Anyone see this yet? Pretty funny:
http://bankofsatan.com
New video… refresh page.
SPY 133.05 – all my 2 day profit wiped out.
(GG mockingly weeps)
burrito dreams dashed against the rocks.
Thinking about buying a strangle at the open tomorrow…
i use 3% stops….that way i can live to trade another day
Leverage your time using small money. It is that simple.
Free full on newsletter they really did give me permission to post.
http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?nl_id=601
http://lindseywilliams101.blogspot.com/
Listen to this video and see what the plan for oil gold $ is ! Red and I both see what is about to happen!
Thanks for the link to Lindsey Anna! Today’s Alex Jones show should be interesting. Q: I know Lindsey has had some good info in the past, but what is your confidence level in it playing out like he is saying? ie. $200/bb oil, USD gone by 2012, etc…
oh OH OHHHH! false print!
I beat Red.
http://tinypic.com/r/2a4sqk1/7
the false print disappeared. but I captured something.
oh well.
That looks like a late fill GG, so it’s probably not a real FP. Could be the same thing with Dee’s FP too, as it looks to be about the same level.
ES Before opening bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-before-opening-bell_22.html
another new FP at 9:18 – 134.58 ish… anyone else see it? still on my chart
another new FP at 9:18 – 134.58 ish… anyone else see it? still on my chart
Red – emailed you the screen shot
Red – emailed you the screen shot
I got it Dee…
That red one looks like a “range” type print. Change in strategery?
What is a range type print? Are you thinking the green FP spikes are the valid ones? Is all of this to confuse everyone?
Might be. I’ve noticed a few prints here and there, specifically during the morning session, that had loosely defined a range for the day.
red,
you gotta love this – ML say to “buy the dip”……. this is a topping signal for sure…. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/merrill-lynch-note-clients-buy-dip
If Merrill Lynch says “BUY”, you’re right… it’s time to sell. Thanks Richie!
red,
you gotta love this – ML say to “buy the dip”……. this is a topping signal for sure…. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/merrill-lynch-note-clients-buy-dip
This move up is soooooooo…. manipulated! LOL
Ok gang, it looks like we are going to do an ABC move up today. Looks like we finished the A leg around the 50% retracement level, and we’re now going down for the B leg.
After it’s done, I expect a C leg up, which “could” take out the current high and hit the 135.14 spy FP? Bears might want to take some profit when the B leg down end’s?
i agree red – they will yank this thing around to get dip buyers in and bears out before they kick the stand out from beneath this market….
ES Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/es-fibonacci-levels.html
SPY 133.11 – why did I buy the DIP (days ago), why!?!
teehee.
come on C leg, show yerself!!!
Look at the 133.11 low print on the 10am candle… they were telling everyone that’s were the B wave down would go to. I think we won’t go much lower and instead rally into a C wave up into tomorrow. You should be fine with your long.
it will be games till month end.
I see 132 to 134.5 easily as a range for shennaigans.
Yes it will… We could go on down for a double bottom, and if that breaks then we should head to the 1311-1313 area.
We have not seen the vix swing 20% in a long time. Not sure if it will stay w/ a big POMO but there is some serious selling hitting this am.
Yes Jim… what was your rule of thumb on the percentage of a continuation if the vix moves so much in one day?
The levels to watch for significance are 6% 12% 18%. 6% means keep an eye distribution is starting,
12 and 18% are intensifying levels.
Today for a while we hit 3)5 which I have not seen in years maybe since 2000 crash. If this holds things coyuld get bloody. I think the Middle east africa are just the excuse.
Jim, I assume you meant 35%, not 3)5…
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee broke 1320 now is resistance
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee broke 1320 now is resistance
Lots of air below Bears 🙂 heheheh
Lots of air below Bears 🙂 heheheh
SPX Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/spx-chart-analysis.html
red,
euro/usd seems to be strangely quiet today??/ hmmm – whats yer thoughts on that – it seems we SHOULD be seeing a little more volatility and flight to safety in the usd///? hmmmm….
That is strange? The dollar really isn’t going anywhere, which leads me to believe this sell off isn’t based on fear or a flight to safety. That should mean that we will probably find a bottom somewhere today and rally from it tomorrow and the next few days.
While this sell off is nice, I’m not betting the farm on it continue down and breaking the large rising wedge. That 1311-1313 level is the lower trendline for that wedge. I think it will hold and bounce from there. It might not hit it today, but instead hit it in the morning tomorrow.
Riche has an inverted on Eur/usd I wouldn’t be short that pair 😉
anna,
i dont trade fx. i was only stating that the pair is relatively stable today – without displaying any type of real volatility in light of the ongoing reaction to headline risk. merkel suffered a huge defeat in hamburg state elections, and if she wants to stay in power she will have to kick out EU members or move out of the euro…….so i am suspect when equities around the world are experiencing high volatility – that the two big currency pairs are calm – makes me go “hmmm”
Huge FP on the upside just got printed
134.60ish
That’s too close to the Friday close I believe, meaning it’s probably a late fill.
poor bastard
and another…..
I’m not seeing those prints?
Thanks… I finally seen one of those prints appear. I could be wrong on that, and they could be actually targets for the bounce back up? That would be a double top (or pretty close).
It’s an FP party..
I sure hope those are not delayed fills lol.
The volume on the spy is about 145 million now, and it’s almost 2pm. That’s not what I’d call “panic” selling. We need 200 million plus for a real down move to cause enough panic for a follow through the next day. At this rate, we’ll barely hit that 200 million level by the close.
Needless to say, I think this “isn’t” the start of the big move down we have all been waiting for. I do expect a hard rally back from this over the next few days. Bears rejoice today, because these gangsters are likely to erase it all before the week ends.
It will be interesting last 1/2 hour. If you are long will you hold overnight?
No… I won’t go long. I’m out of all positions right now. While we could gap up tomorrow and continue rallying all day (which is why I don’t have any shorts left), we could also gap down quickly to stop out those who went long into the close today.
However, I think any gap down tomorrow will be followed by a rally all day long, squeeze out all the bears that are short right now. If NO gap happens, then I suspect it will open and chop around all day frustrating both bulls and bears. Then Thursday will be the “unknown” day, as what Wednesday does will determine the rest of the week.
red,
one stat that alluded me was the nyse short interest – it is the lowest since the lehman bros collapse. that bodes the question – where will be the natural buying in the market as it accelerates to the downside???
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyse-short-interest-lowest-level-years-who-will-be-bid
Richie, that “lack of short interest” means that this thing is really going to get ugly when the panic starts…. LOL!
new info
http://www.infowars.com/lindsey-williams-to-break-bombshell-info-on-alex-jones-show/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#
listen live!
On the Alex Jones Show tomorrow, pastor Lindsey Williams will reveal new bombshell information detailing the plans of the globalists revealed to him by his inside sources. The new information will dwarf anything Williams has revealed in the past. The new revelations deal with the death of the dollar, exploding energy prices, and the engineered onset of order out of chaos revolution worldwide.
Pastor Williams’ revelations have turned out to be uncannily accurate in the past. In December, he told Alex Jones he was told by two of this longtime friends, both retired top executives of major oil producers, that the price of crude oil was slated to move to $150-200 per barrel in the short term.
The turmoil in Libya sent the price of premium crude oil in London soaring above $105 a barrel recently, the highest level in two and a half years. Economists are predicting gas prices will takeoff because of instability in the Middle East. Some say drivers could be paying $5 a gallon for gas by late summer.
Mr. Williams states the global elite plan to kill the dollar and bring the once great United States to its knees and reduce it to third world status.
The Alex Jones Show airs from 11 to 2 PM CST and can be heard via streaming audio at infowars.com and on syndicated radio stations around the country.